SHOULD SOUTH AFRICA HAVE A FISCAL RULE?

Over the past three decades many countries have struggled to find solutions to their persistent public sector deficits. For some the solution to this problem seemingly became the adoption of fiscal rules. This paper considers the applicability of one such rule, namely the output‐sensitive deficit rule of Taylor, and in particular its applicability to South Africa. The paper shows that its applicability in developing countries such as South Africa might be limited due to higher output volatility that may cause output‐sensitive deficit rules such as the Taylor rule to become more volatile. Such volatility in the deficit/GDP ratio may cause fears that government may not be able to maintain the stability of the debt/GDP ratio, thereby again introducing fiscal unsustainability. To address this problem the paper augments the Taylor rule to reduce the volatility in the public debt/GDP ratio and demonstrates how these rules would have performed in South Africa. It concludes that the augmented fiscal rule might contribute to both fiscal sustainability and economic stability in South Africa.     

Reducing Public Debt under Dynamic Efficiency: Transitional Dynamics in Diamond's OLG Model

Fiscal retrenchment is on the political agenda in the U.S. as well as in the EU. Utilizing Diamond's [1965] classic OLG growth model with internal debt, this paper focuses on temporarily adjusting the ratio of the primary budget surplus to GDP to achieve a target debt to GDP ratio lower than its initial level in the case of dynamic efficiency. The transitional dynamics of the debt to GDP and of the capital–output ratios are rigorously analyzed. It is shown that reducing the public debt to GDP ratio diminishes private capital intensity too.The author thanks, without implication, an anonymous referee and Laurie Conway for extremely useful advice and comments.     

ADJUSTING SOUTH AFRICA'S FISCAL BALANCE FOR TERMS-OF-TRADE EFFECTS

Standard output gap‐based calculations and interpretations of the cyclical component of the fiscal balance may convey a misleading picture in countries such as South Africa which experience substantial movements in their terms of trade. This paper therefore adjusts South Africa's general government primary balance for terms‐of‐trade effects by means of an alternative calculation of the transitory component based on a measure of the real income gap rather than the real output gap. The results indicate that measures of the cyclical component of the budget balance based on real income and real output gaps generally yield broadly similar results over history, but during exceptional periods of rapid changes in commodity prices, the measures can be very different.     

Decomposing the Effects of FDI on Guangdong＇s Economic Growth

Guangdong has been experiencing rapid economic growth, while this rapid growth was accompanied by a boom in inward foreign investment and the establishment of a direct link with the outside world. Using city-level panel data from 1996 to 2002, the four-year moving fixed effects FDI-led growth model empirically shows that Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan （HMT） investment will not continue to make up the bulk of FDI in Guangdong for long, and that its dominant influence on Guangdong＇s economic growth will be gradually replaced by other sources of investment in the near future due to various political and economical reasons.     

What Are the Drivers of Fiscal Performance Gaps between Anglophone and Francophone Africa? A Blinder–Oaxaca Decomposition

In this paper, we make use of the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition to examine how the quality of budget institutions affects fiscal performance – primary balance and public debt – in sub‐Saharan Africa. To organise our approach, we categorise sub‐Saharan Africa countries according to the two main systems of budgetary institutions: the English‐based system and the French‐based system. The quality of budget institutions is measured through five criteria: centralisation, comprehensiveness, fiscal and procedural rules, sustainability and credibility, and transparency. Our findings show that, on average, Anglophone Africa countries have better budgetary institutions than their Francophone counterparts, and this difference is the main determinant of the fiscal performance gaps between the two groups. These performance gaps are mostly due to the characteristics effect, meaning that the relative poor fiscal performance of Francophone countries is not due to the French‐based system itself but rather to the environment in which it operates. The budget process and procedures in these countries are relatively less comprehensive, sustainable and transparent and that adversely affects their fiscal performance.     

Fiscal Decentralization and Economic Growth in China, 1994–2002

The question of whether fiscal decentralization has affected economic growth since the 1994 fiscal reform in China is interesting to both policy makers and economists. Using a simple model of endogenous growth that incorporates spending by different levels of government, and a panel data set for 30 provinces for the period of 1994–2002, this paper finds that fiscal decentralization contributes significantly to economic growth. This finding is consistent with the theoretical prediction that fiscal decentralization can increase economic efficiency. In addition, this paper attempts to investigate how the relationship between fiscal decentralization and provincial growth differs in the different regions considered. For this purpose, the 30 Chinese provinces and regions are categorized into three conventional economic belts that comprise the eastern, central, and western areas. This study finds that the effects of fiscal decentralization on economic growth vary among these three regions.     

中国进口与经济增长关系的区域差异分析

利用面板数据对中国东、中、西部的进口额和GDP增长关系进行的实证研究。在短期内,GDP增长对进口额影响最小是中部地区,在长期,西部GDP增长对进口额影响最大。中国经济增长对拉动世界经济增长起了十分重要的作用,中国经济增长减速也会影响全球经济。