Monetary Convergence and Risk Premiums in the EU Accession Countries

This study examines the impact of various monetary policy regimes on the ability to lower inflation and exchange rate risk premiums in the EU accession countries as they undergo monetary convergence to the eurozone. It proposes a monetary policy framework of flexible targeting of relative inflation risk premium that is believed to be credible and useful for managing these two categories of risk. A model of inflation and exchange rate risk premiums within the context of inflation targeting is developed. Recent trends in these risk premiums in Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland are tested by employing the threshold ARCH (TARCH) model.     

The Impact of Corruption on the Black Market Premium

Recently the impact of institutional factors on macro variables has been gaining momentum. Researchers have investigated the impact of corruption, law and order, and bureaucracy on economic growth, inflation, investment, productivity, and the real exchange rate. In this article, we investigate empirically the impact of institutional factors on the black market premium. In many developing nations, because of government restrictions on capital and trade flows, there exists a black market for foreign exchange. By using data from 60 developing countries over the 1982-1995 period, we show that the black market premium is higher in countries that are plagued by more corruption. This finding seems to be insensitive to five different measures of corruption as well as whether cross-section or panel data are used.     

Technological Change,Job Risk,and Wage Premium: Evidence from Taiwan

The paper reports the results of analyzing the effects of technological change and job risk on wage premiums in Taiwan. Using unique individual data combined with industry‐level indices of technological change and fatality rates across industries, the empirical results show that, overall, industries characterized by a higher rate of technological change or fatality pay a higher wage. However, these positive correlations are attributed to the sorting effect in which workers with some specific features choose to find jobs in industries with rapid technological change and higher job risk. Furthermore, this paper reports a positive relationship between education and wages after controlling for individual heterogeneity, showing the existence of education premium in Taiwan.     

新型农村合作医疗制度的保费问题及对策建议

保费问题是新型农村合作医疗良性运行的重要条件,目前,保费存在诸多问题,影响到新型农村合作医疗的顺利运行。在保费的筹集过程中主要存在农民参合性不高、逆向选择、筹集顺序不科学和筹集成本过高等问题;在保费的管理方面主要存在管理主体不明确、管理成本过高、管理模式单一松散和管理的信息技术落后等问题。在新型农村合作医疗实践的过程中,应该从调动农民参合的积极性、保费筹集方式多样化、新型农村合作医疗经办机构具独立性和人大与政府加大对保费的监管力度等几个方面来完善它。     

妨碍我国排污权交易政策实施的制度因素分析

结合污染物的总量控制和排污许可证制度,我国已经进行了10多年的各类排污权交易试点工作。但是,排污权交易却至今未能形成一个全国统一的环境政策。本文利用制度分析框架从制度结构与不完全合约的角度分析表明,妨碍我国排污权交易政策实施的制度因素主要是排污权交易制度结构的缺陷所致。     

Equity Risk Premium Puzzle: Evidence from Indonesia and Sri Lanka

This paper investigates the equity risk premium puzzle in the Indonesian and Sri Lankan stock markets in order to identify the relationship between the volatility of excess returns and the equity risk premium. The asymmetric impact of negative shocks on the equity risk premium is also examined using threshold and exponential GARCH-M models. We analyse data on the excess returns of the Indonesian and Sri Lankan stock markets from 2004 to 2013, and we find that the impact of the conditional volatility of excess returns on the equity risk premium is not significant in either country. Instead, we find an impact from negative return shocks on the equity risk premium only in Sri Lanka. Therefore, we conclude that investors are not compensated for the conditional volatility of the excess returns in these two markets, while Sri Lankan investors are compensated for the risk of negative shocks.     

人民币实际汇率变动与FDI流入结构：理论模型与实证分析

随着FDI流入我国规模的扩大,引资结构也发生了很大的变化。同时,伴随着我国经济实力的增强,FDI流入已从高速成长期进入成熟期,因此,人民币汇率变动对FDI的影响也表现出一定的复杂性。将FDI流入我国的类型划分为贸易型与非贸易型,从投资商谋求利润最大化的微观视角,建立人民币汇率变动与不同类型的FDI之间关系的理论模型。进一步地,利用2006-2011年的月度数据对理论模型的观点进行了验证。研究结果显示,我国制造业FDI与服务业FDI均与人民币汇率呈现正相关关系,但是短期还表现为一定的负相关性。两行业FDI流入成为人民币汇率变动的重要因素。     

农村土地经营权规模化流转溢价:客观事实、结构特征与政策取向

“三权”分置改革的核心是通过放活土地经营权,促进土地规模经营和现代农业发展。近年来,在农村土地经营权流转实践中,部分地区的规模化流转出现溢价已经成为基本事实。农村土地经营权规模化流转溢价虽然能够增加流转农户的收入,保障承包户的财产权利,但也会制约土地规模经营,不利于现代农业发展。从来源性质来看,土地经营权规模化流转溢价可分为规模溢价、风险溢价和投资溢价。不同性质溢价的生成机理和应对思路不尽相同,应当加以区分对待。土地经营权规模化流转价格的形成及其调控应以有利于保障粮食安全和土地适度规模经营、促进农业现代化、保障农民的合理利益为原则。在政策导向上,应保护农村土地经营权规模化流转的规模溢价,规范风险溢价,并重构投资溢价。     

The dynamic contagion of the global financial crisis into Japanese markets

This paper investigates the risk contagion channel of the global financial crisis into Japan using daily data on bond risk premiums for the financial and manufacturing industries from July 18, 2006 to May 25, 2010. We employ a bivariate EGARCH model with the constant exogenous contagion impacts of foreign industries and the time-varying endogenous contagion impacts of domestic industries. We find evidence that: (i) a constant exogenous impact from foreign industries appears in the risk premium for 5-year bonds issued by manufacturing industry firms, and (ii) contagion only exists from the manufacturing industry to the financial industry, and that there is no evidence of any reverse causation, even during the Lehman Brothers shock on September 15, 2008. Thus, in Japan, risk transfers from foreign industries to the domestic manufacturing industry, and thence to the domestic financial industry.     

Did International Outsourcing Cause the Increase in China's Skill Premium?

This study analyzes the transmission mechanism for the increase in the skill premium caused by international outsourcing through skill‐biased technological change (SBTC). Using 2000–2013 panel data from 27 manufacturing industries in China, this study conducts both probit and Tobit tests and shows that international outsourcing led to SBTC in China's manufacturing industries. A positive correlation is found between international outsourcing and the increase in the skill premium in both static and dynamic models. For each 1‐percent increase in the international outsourcing index, the skill premium will rise approximately 10 percent. This finding indicates the existence of a mechanism through which the effect of international outsourcing on the skill premium is reinforced where SBTC is occurring. However, this may enlarge wage gaps within the same industry. Therefore, China should not only use the skill premium to promote the transformation and upgrading of industries benefiting from outsourcing and optimize the structure of employment but also prevent the negative effects of an increased skill premium.     

Technological Innovations in the Control of International Exchange: Lessons for Africa

Empirical studies on international trade highlight the role of innovation on international exchange but do not capture the effect of technological innovation when unobservable common factors (UCFs) are considered. This paper examines the long‐run relationship between technological innovation and international exchange using panel data for eight African countries over the period 1981–2013. The non‐stationarity and cointegration between technological innovation, international exchange, public investment, real gross domestic income and foreign direct investment were examined, controlling for cross‐sectional dependence and heterogeneity between countries. The results suggest that technological innovation in Africa remains low after controlling for UCFs, while public investment, real gross domestic product and foreign direct investment have significant impact on international exchange. Moreover, the results from the homogeneous and heterogeneous estimates, with and without UCFs, show that ignoring UCFs is likely to bias the coefficients. These findings reveal that African countries should invest more in public infrastructures and research and development to upgrade their capability To play an active role in the international market.     

Effect of Participation of Foreign Migrant Workers in Labour Market on Native Workers: Evidence Based on Change Noticed in College Premium in Taiwan ROC

Using Manpower Utilization Survey data for 14 years from 1999 to 2012, we applied the DDDD (Differences–in–differences–in–differences–in–differences) estimation method to check if rising presence of foreign migrant workers in Taiwan’s domestic labour market had any impact on employment opportunities and wages earned by native Taiwanese workers over time. We used the data capturing the effect of college premium (viz., the additional cost to be borne for getting admission into college) paid by the natives on domestic wage rate during this period. College premium is an indicator of demand and supply for educated labour and we intend to see if the premium has grown with time when influx of foreign migrant workers has grown too. From the results, two interesting phenomena caught our attention. First, labour policy adopted by the Government in Taiwan has played an important role in increasing the influx of foreign workers into domestic labour market, which resulted in significant change in college premium paid by the natives. And, this effect lasted even when instances of strikes and reported cases of labour disputes were relatively higher. Second, the effect of the policy has been varying across genders as our data shows that policy on employment of foreign workers has affected job opportunities of native men workers more than it affected job opportunities of their female counterpart.     

影响我国排污权交易政策实施的环境主体利益分析

结合污染物的总量控制和排污许可证制度,我国已经进行了10多年的各类排污权交易试点工作。但是,排污权交易却至今未能形成一个全国统一的环境政策。本文根据新制度经济学的基本原理从环境空间主体利益、环境消费主体利益两个方面的分析表明,我国的排污权交易政策之所以至今未能在全国全面实施,主要是以利益为核心的一系到因素所促成的。     

CAPITAL CONTROLS,TWO‐TIERED EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEMS AND EXCHANGE RATE POLICY: THE SOUTH AFRICAN EXPERIENCE

South Africa's 40 years of experience with capital controls on residents and non‐residents (1961‐2001) reads like a collection of examples of perverse unanticipated effects of legislation and regulation. We show that the presence of capital controls on residents and non‐residents enabled the South African Reserve Bank to target domestic interest rates (and or the exchange rate) via interventions in the (commercial) foreign exchange market. This provides an early rationale for anchoring SA monetary policy via the exchange rate, rather than via domestic interest rates. This suggests not only that the capital controls themselves exhibited substantial institutional inertia, but that this same institutional inertia also applied to the monetary policy regime. A plausible reason for this is that for most of the 20th century in South Africa. (partial) capital controls and exchange rate based monetary policies were like Siamese twins – almost impossible to separate.     

Empirical Study on Information Asymmetry Based on Chinese Forward Exchange Rate Market

Many published studies have considered information asymmetry between domestic and foreign investors about local assets in the stock market, particularly in developed markets. The present study proposes a new perspective to address the issue in the case of China's forward exchange rate market. Following the framework of Clarida and Taylor (1997), the term structures of exchange rates in the domestic forward and the non‐deliverable forward markets are constructed and then applied to predict future spot exchange rates based on a vector equilibrium correction model. By comparing the forecast accuracy on the basis of the root mean square error and the mean absolute error, it is shown that dynamic out‐of‐sample forecasts of the domestic forward market are superior to those of the non‐deliverable forward market, suggesting that domestic investors are better informed than foreign investors. The result has several important policy implications, especially for exchange rate determination.     

关于存款保险费费率的推算问题

影响存款保险费费率的因素有许多。由于我国的存款保险制度尚在筹划之中,影响存款保险费费率的各种因素均不存在经验值,但是,该费率的性质表现为,它与“期望保费收入”以及“期望赔付成本率”成正比,与“平均每份保单的期望保险金额”成反比,即R=Ep/Tn·M-G/n（1-Ep）。通过确定存款保险基金的预期规模,保险基金达到该规模所须年数的预设,存款保险人投入作为保险基金的资本金总额的确定,以及对保单集合期望赔付成本、期望赔付成本率、期望保费收入等的预定就可以测算存款保险费费率的数值。     

Welfare Ranking of Environmental Policies in the Presence of Capital Mobility and Cross‐Border Pollution

We construct a model of two regions with cross‐border pollution, and with inter‐regional (regional capital mobility [RCM]) or international (international capital mobility [ICM]) capital mobility. Each region uses emission taxes, or intra‐regionally, or inter‐regionally tradable emission permits to reduce pollution. We show that the non‐cooperative settings of all three instruments are always inefficient relative to their cooperative settings. When regions are symmetric, then (i) with RCM the non‐cooperative setting of intra‐regionally tradable emissions permits is welfare superior to that of the other two instruments, (ii) with ICM the non‐cooperative settings of intra‐regionally tradable emission permits and of emission taxes are equivalent and superior to that of inter‐regionally tradable emission permits, and (iii) with ICM the three instruments are equivalent only when cross‐border pollution is perfect.     

Tax policy on foreign direct investment in the presence of cross-hauling

Tax Policy on Foreign Direct Investment in the Presence of Cross-Hauling. — The authors develop a partial equilibrium model of foreign direct investment (FDI) in which identical foreign firms locate themselves in a host country to compete with internationally mobile domestic firms in non-tradeable oligopolistic markets for two differentiated commodities. The host country, which is small in the market for FDI, uses lumpsum subsidy (tax) to encourage (discourage) FDI. There is unemployment in the host country. Under this framework, the authors analyse the effect of discriminatory and uniform subsidies on the inflow/outflow of domestic and foreign firms and on employment. They also derive some properties of optimal subsidies.     

A Closer Look at the Size and Value Premium in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange

In this study of asset pricing in emerging markets, two questions are asked. First, Is there a size and value premium in markets outside the USA? Second, Can the multifactor model of Fama and French (1996) capture the cross–section of average stock returns for the Malaysian setting? The answers from this study suggest that size and value premium exist in markets outside the USA. We find that the two mimic portfolios, ‘small minus big’ (SMB) and ‘high minus low’ (HML), generate a return of 17.70% and 17.69% per annum, respectively, while the market generates a return of 1.92% per annum. Our findings suggest that the multi–factor model of Fama and French (1996) is a parsimonious representation of the risk factors for Malaysia, explaining returns in an economically meaningful manner. Our findings also reject the claim that the multifactor model results can be explained by the turn–of–the–year effect.