Googling Investor’s Sentiment: Powerful Measure in Conventional and Islamic MENA Financial Markets

ABSTRACT

The objective of this paper is to investigate whether investors' sentiment measured by the Internet search behavior constitutes a valid measure of investor’s sentiment on Islamic and conventional indexes of emerging and frontier financial markets in MENA countries. In fact, we examine the relation between googling investor’s sentiment and monthly Islamic and conventional index returns during the period 2004–2016. Using the Dynamic Conditional Correlation, the BEKK-GARCH and the wavelet coherence models, we confirm that googling investor’s sentiment is a perfect indicator of investor’s sentiment measure. Indeed, we find that this measure has the ability to reflect major events such as subprime financial crisis, oil crisis and Arab spring revolution affecting MENA Islamic and conventional index markets. Our finding indicates that investors can use googling investor’s sentiment as an indicator to predict returns and volatility of emerging and frontier markets since it reflects the behavior and emotions of investors in MENA financial markets.     

国有银行引进外国战略投资者成效分析

国有银行引进外资作为战略投资者的原因包括:对股份制银行引进外国战略投资者做法的借鉴;在国家控股条件下试图完善银行公司治理和提高绩效的一次新尝试;银行监管部门的大力提倡。财务投资者冒充战略投资者入股国有银行、中外资战略合作没有达到一定深度和国际金融机构陷入财务危机,则是禁售期后战略投资者选择抛售离开的原因。本文认为,外国战略投资者的引进对实现国有银行在境外成功上市起到了积极作用,但改善银行公司治理、引进先进管理经验和技术的初衷并未达到。     

投资者信心、投资者行为与投资者教育效率研究

在证券市场上,由于契约和法律的这种外来的保护不完备,投资者需要对其权益进行自我保护。本文在探讨投资者信心、投资者行为与投资者教育的关系的基础上,通过政府主导的投资者教育事件研究,指出我国当前政府主导的投资者教育活动具有"双刃剑"的效果:既可提高投资者的投资知识和技能,增强其投资信心,又可能由于制度路径依赖的存在,损害投资者利益。政府教育的效果取决于其组织实施的方式和方法,也取决于投资者对政府教育的正确解读。     

The relations among accounting conservatism,institutional investors and earnings manipulation

Most scholars have indicated corporations using accounting conservatism to reduce earnings manipulation, although certain scholars believe that firms have more incentive to increase earnings manipulation. Institutional investors play an important external monitoring role, and affect firm's earnings manipulation. Previous studies adopted accruals as an earnings manipulation proxy to detect the relationship among accounting conservatism, institutional investor shareholdings, and earnings manipulation. We further investigate the relationship among accounting conservatism, institutional investor shareholdings, and earnings manipulation by using Benford's law. Our results indicate that firms with more conservative financial reporting have less probability of engaging in earnings-manipulative activities. We also find the negative association between earnings management and institutional investor shareholdings. However, if corporate financial statements tend toward conservatism, institutional investor shareholdings could increase managers' incentive to manage earnings. Our findings have important implications for investors to make investment decisions.     

Corporate tax avoidance and cost of equity capital: international evidence

ABSTRACT

This study examines the association between firm’s tax avoidance activities and cost of equity capital across 17 countries. Consistent with the prior study based on the U.S. evidence, within strong investor protection countries, the extent of firm’s tax avoidance is negatively associated with its cost of equity capital. This result indicates that strong investor protection induces investors to perceive firm’s tax avoidance activities as the results of efficient tax planning to reduce tax liabilities. To the contrary, we find that the extent of firm’s tax avoidance is positively associated with its cost of equity capital within weak investor protection countries. This result suggests that investors impose equity risk premium on firm’s tax avoidance activities in weak investor protection countries, where agency conflicts prevail more on firm’s tax avoidance activities. As the first international study on the association between firm’s tax avoidance activities and its cost of equity capital, this study contributes to the literature by suggesting that such an association may vary across countries depending on the strength of investor protection within each country of domicile.     

Market reaction to supranational banking supervision in Europe: Do firm- and country-specific factors matter?

This paper investigates the financial market´s perception regarding the effectiveness of the Single Supervisory Mechanism in Europe. Do investors believe that centralized supervision adds value compared to multiple supervision? . Do they feel uncertain about the supervisory role of the ECB? To answer these questions, a sample of 118 European Banks has been used finding that whereas in early dates the market reaction was positive reflecting the expectation of greater stability, it turned negative at the time the scope of the supervision was limited to only a group of banks. As might be expected, the reaction is significantly more negative for the directly supervised entities, anticipating a different and more demanding style of supervision that could lead to higher cost. This negative wealth effect is intensified for banks with higher price-to-book ratios or those located in countries with more developed financial systems and better investor protection. However, solvency and productivity firm indicators or low levels of perceived corruption moderate it. This research not only highlights the doubts and uncertainty of investors about the final applications of the SSM, but it could be also useful for policy makers and regulators in order to achieve a more harmonized supervision that improves the credibility of the systems and promote financial stability.

     

The decision to seek advice in the self-directed retirement fund industry

This article examines the influence of investor knowledge and the cognitive bias that arises from overconfidence on the advice-seeking behaviour of investors managing their own retirement funds. Specifically, we trace whether overestimating one’s own technical and financial abilities can hinder the willingness to seek advice, particularly when it would be in the investors’ best interest to do so. We identify a subset of investors who are not knowledgeable and yet do not seek advice. These investors exhibit overconfidence in their ability to manage a fund, despite holding under-diversified and less sophisticated portfolios relative to their peers. Given the global rise in investors choosing to manage their own retirement funds and the importance of seeking advice in this context, there are direct policy implications from these results. They suggest a need to identify and target investors who display overconfidence since they are most likely to be managing underperforming retirement investments in the longer term.     

Time-varying dependence in European equity markets: A contagion and investor sentiment driven analysis

In the light of the global financial crisis and sovereign debt crisis, this paper investigates the dependence patterns in 24 European equity markets from January 5, 2004 to July 1, 2016. We further examine whether these stressful events trigger contagion. Given that investors tend to behave irrationally in turmoil periods, we add to the literature by studying the effect of investor sentiment on markets correlations. Our results reveal heterogeneity in the time-varying dependence and across markets. Contagion is confirmed in turbulent times, a spillover effect from periphery euro area being detected. We find that similar sentiments increase correlations, especially in crises, suggesting that investors’ perceptions are an important channel of moving markets in the same direction. Furthermore, negative sentiments, such as fear or pessimism, amplify the linkages between markets. Our results offer useful insights to policy makers for reacting timely to financial shocks and for designing a more integrated market.     

Investor sentiment,information and asset pricing model

We present an asset pricing model with investor sentiment and information, which shows that the investor sentiment has a systematic and significant impact on the asset price. The equilibrium price's rational term drives the asset price to the rational, and the sentiment term leads to the asset price deviating from it. In our model, the proportion of sentiment investors and the information quality could amplify the sentiment shock on the asset price. Finally, the information is fully incorporated into prices when sentiment investors learn from prices. The model could offer a partial explanation of some financial anomalies: price bubbles, high volatility, asset prices' momentum effect and reversal effect.     

Does the market care about investor protection practices in China?

This study develops a scorecard with which to measure the investor protection practices of major listed firms in China during 2007–2010. We use time-series data to examine the relationship between the change in firm investor protection practices and market performance. Our results show that firms exhibiting improvements in investor protection practices manifest a subsequent increase in buy-and-hold abnormal returns. The results further indicate that the changes in the sub-index have different effects on a firm’s future performance. Shareholder rights to be rewarded seem to have the most significant and positive effect on a firm’s future performance for both local and international investors. Moreover, international investors pay attention to their rights to information. Our results provide evidence in support of the notion that the market does care about firm’s investor protection practices. The findings are robust to other measures of firm performance.     

The capital asset pricing model in economic perspective

The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is theoretically incomplete in its demand-side focus, risk-averse investors and internally inconsistent homogeneous beliefs; is not conclusively supported empirically; and yet it legitimizes a notion that investors can earn higher returns by bearing undiversifiable risk. Our article does not merely extend the CAPM with more realistic assumptions, it completes its original framework by including (1) risk-taking investors in the investor population, (2) investors who can have heterogeneous expectations or beliefs – an overlooked but required condition for the CAPM to be an internally consistent and meaningful model of competitive financial asset pricing under uncertainty and (3) a positive-sloped short-run supply curve based on a reasonable interpretation of the nature of financial asset trade. Upon a complete economic interpretation, it is shown that the equilibrium (systematic) risk-rate of return relationship depends on whose aggregate trading activity dominates, risk-averse or risk-taking investors’. There is no universal, or even general, positive relationship between systematic risk and rate of return. This has far-reaching implications for investors and investment advisors who serve them.     

信号发送、投资者识别与私募股权资本市场

基于金融市场上广泛存在的信息不对称,本文构造了信号发送和投资者识别能力的市场反应函数模型。分析发现,私募股权资本市场能够通过降低信息不对称程度,达到减少新项目潜在租金的消散、降低创业企业家的创业风险以及投资者能从与创业企业家的合作中分享租金的目的。本文的研究表明,私募股权资本市场是金融市场的重要组成部分,是经济发展的重要推动力。     

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Investor Sentiment: linear and nonlinear causality analysis

In this paper, we study the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiment. US data were analysed based on linear and non-linear Granger causality analysis. We reveal the obvious impact that economic policy uncertainty has on the investor sentiment, which can be explained by the real option and financial constraint theory.     

美国证券市场投资者保护立法的历史演进及对我国的启示

投资者保护的根本目的在于维持投资者信心，实现公司价值最大化，促进资本积累、证券市场发展和经济增长。美国证券市场经过多年发展，市场已经相对较为完善，投资者保护程度也较高，其中完备、灵活、有效的证券法律体系功不可没。通过回顾美国证券市场投资者保护立法的演进过程，并在此基础上分析美国证券市场立法的核心所在，以期对我国证券市场法律体系的完善具有一定的借鉴意义。     

Mathematical modelling as a tool to aid R&D investment decisions in a sustainable development policy climate

By its very nature, investment in R&D is a challenging proposition. It is a decision made today for an uncertain return in the future. Moreover, it has become more complex with the introduction of sustainable development considerations into the decision-making process. In this paper, the effect of environmental policy on the economic framework within which new technologies must compete is discussed, and analytical techniques which help assess these complexities are described. The return on an R&D investment is determined by the competitiveness of the resultant innovation at the time of its eventual application. A new technology is competitive relative to a given economic framework (which includes such factors as alternative technologies, availability of investment capital, trained human resources, etc).Government involvement in establishing goals and timetables for environmental protection signficantly affects the evolution of the economic framework in which new technologies must perform. To be successful in the 'sustainable development' age, the R&D investor must be able to anticipate the effect and development of government environmental and economic policy. Mathematical modelling is a valuable tool to help the investor and policy-maker appreciate the key risk factors and to understand the effect of environmental and economic policy on desired outcomes. For R&D, most model development has focused on policy development and is not very useful supporting the business decisions msociated with effective R&D investment. In this paper, the interaction bebeen government policy and business decision-making is discussed, and a methodology, supported by a model, is presented to aid R&D investors to take environmental and sustainabilip issues into account when assessing the future competitiveness of technology.     

国有机构投资者持股能提升企业投资效率吗?

具有国资背景的机构投资者,对于资本市场平稳发展具有重要意义。本文基于我国2015—2019年A股上市公司样本,考察持股对企业投资效率的影响。研究发现,持股显著提升了企业投资效率,并且该影响在代理冲突更严重和所处信息环境更不透明的公司中更加显著。机制检验表明,降低企业内外部信息不对称和代理成本是持股提升企业投资效率的重要渠道。进一步研究发现,国有机构投资者持股时间越长,对企业非效率投资的治理效果越好;细分国有机构投资者类型后发现,致力于长期维护资本市场稳定和上市公司长期健康发展的证金公司和汇金公司对企业投资效率的提升作用显著,但没有发现“救市”基金和外管局旗下的投资平台对企业投资效率有提升作用。研究结论从企业投资效率视角为国有机构投资者持股在微观企业日常经营中发挥的治理作用提供了新颖的经验证据,对进一步提高我国上市公司质量具有启示意义。     

基于项目类型的股权众筹羊群行为及领投人作用研究

股权众筹为创新创业提供资金支持,但其存在风险大和信息不对称等突出问题,为了规避风险,股权众筹投资者往往会跟随领投人及其他投资者进行决策。研究羊群行为及领投人作用有助于了解投资者群体心理,对提高融资绩效具有重要理论价值。目前,国内股权众筹方面的研究较少,更缺乏针对不同类型项目的深入研究。对众筹网的股权众筹项目面板数据进行回归分析,发现科技类和非科技类项目的投资者均存在羊群行为,且科技类项目投资者羊群行为边际效用趋增。领投人有利于吸引对科技类项目的投资,却不利于吸引对非科技类项目的投资。最后,从投资者、融资者及众筹平台3个方面提出了对策建议。     

后金融危机时代投资者保护实施方式的转换

增强投资者保护水平有利于优化资源配置,而投资者保护水平的变化是一个利益关系的调整过程,因而后金融危机背景下提升投资者保护水平极其必要。而目前在投资者保护的实施方式方面存在着认识上的误区:过于注重投资者保护的公共监管实施,忽视其私人实施。因此,提升投资者保护水平应注重投资者保护实施方式的转换。     

Global and Extreme Dependence Between Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns in European Markets

The authors investigate the global and extreme dependence structure between investor sentiment and stock returns in 7 European stock markets (Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Portugal, and the UK), over the period 1985–2015. Global dependence refers to the correlation of changes in sentiment and stock returns over the whole range of these 2 variables, and extreme dependence refers to the local correlation of high (i.e. asymptotic) changes in sentiment and high stock returns. Using copula models and a bootstrap procedure, 6 statistical tests are performed for this purpose. Among the results of the tests, the authors highlight those that provide evidence of contemporaneous lower extreme dependence and contemporaneous upper extreme independence between sentiment and returns. As policy implications, these results suggest that financial stability can be promoted if regulators consider the impact of their decisions on investor sentiment. Also, the results seem to support the arguments in favor of short selling ban during turmoil periods. Finally, overall, the results are relevant for both investors and regulators and reinforce the importance of considering investor sentiment to better understand the behavior of financial markets.     

Board effectiveness in Chinese fund management companies

With a generally weak investor protection environment and no governance voice in the fund management companies (FMC) to which their investment is entrusted, fund investors in China are left with the internal governance mechanisms to safeguard their interest. Using a panel data of 288 firm‐year observations covering more than 98% of FMC in China from the period between 2006 and 2010, the present paper examines the corporate governance challenges confronting the fledging Chinese fund management industry by analysing how key governance settings affect the performance of the board of directors in protecting the interest of fund investors. The results show that board effectiveness can be enhanced if a listed company is the controlling shareholder. In addition, having a female CEO or board chairperson and a small‐sized board may help to reduce investors’ fees. Other internal corporate governance mechanisms, such as shareholder concentration, having state‐owned financial companies as controlling shareholders and board independence, are found to exhibit no significant impact on the effectiveness of FMC boards.