Functional income distribution and effective demand in India: An applied post Keynesian model

This article is an attempt to understand the relationship between functional income distribution and aggregate demand in India. To this end, the article (a) highlights trends in growth and class distribution of income in India; (b) constructs a post Keynesian macro model that links short run growth with profit share, where the latter is itself driven by movements in output and real exchange rate; (c) discusses and, wherever required, estimates key parameters relevant to the Indian case; and (d) simulates the model and discusses the effect of shocks to distributive as well as autonomous demand variables on growth performance. The article finds that, although a possibility of wage-led growth in India cannot be ruled out, by and large, distributive shocks do not have a strong impact on output growth. On the other hand, an increase in public expenditure growth, although it has a strong effect on output growth, tilts income distribution toward profit earners. A comprehensive agenda involving greater public expenditure and higher wages to stimulate growth and improve distribution is therefore recommended.     

Labor supply: Toward the construction of an alternative conception from post Keynesian and institutional economics

Post Keynesian and institutional economics have traditionally maintained a critical stance toward the orthodox model of labor supply, questioning many of its underlying assumptions. Nevertheless, this critical view has not led to the formulation of an alternative conception of labor supply that is sufficiently coherent and structured to be generally accepted within these branches of the literature. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to contribute to the construction of such an alternative. To do so, the article starts by analyzing the relationship between the reasons that lead to individuals offering their labor and what that activity can bring to human beings in return. Secondly, the authors present an alternative concept of what workers contribute at work. They then analyze how the decision-making process regarding the labor supply actually takes place. Finally, the article concludes by briefly presenting certain additional points, in particular how differentiation is an inherent feature of the labor supply.     

Similitudes and Discrepancies in Post‐Keynesian and Marxist Theories of Investment: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation1

There has been a substantial amount of convergence between post‐Keynesian and Marxist economics, the writings of Kalecki being common ground for both traditions. Still, some differences remain. While authors in both traditions seem to agree to a large extent on short‐period issues, long‐period matters relating to the role of saving, the rate of profit, inflation, crowding out, excess money supply, are still contentious. All this seems to depend on the exact form taken by the investment function, more specifically the role of capacity utilization. Four different equations are set up to be tested, two of which correspond to two variants of the Marxist view, while the other two equations correspond to a naive and a sophisticated Kaleckian view, the latter being based on hysteresis. The equations are tested on three sets of annual Canadian data. Various statistical tests are applied to all four equations in an effort to rank them, notably information and encompassing tests. The Kaleckian equation with hysteresis generally comes out empirically with the preferred statistical properties, when manufacturing data on actual rates of capital accumulation are considered separately or when both realized and intended rates of investment for the total industrial sector are used.     

On the causes of the changes in income shares: Some reflections in the light the United States experience

The last 30 years have witnessed a dramatic change in the distribution of income, with the wage share falling in all major industrialized countries. Main-stream analyses, including New Keynesian ones, which retain the notion of factor substitution leading to a “factor intensity” inversely related to its rate of return, have encountered some difficulties in the interpretation of this change. Nonmainstream approaches present an advantage in the explanation of the phenomenon, consisting in the fact that they entail no a priori connections between the changes in distribution and the changes factor proportions. Hence if a change in institutions or in the bargaining strength of the parties affects distribution, income shares may vary significantly (i.e., changes in wages need not be accompanied by changes in labor to output ratio in the opposite direction as in mainstream analyses). Yet empirical observation may question also some of the analyses that have been advanced outside the mainstream. The article will explore the ways in which nonmainstream approaches have interpreted the described changes in distribution, and assess them from an analytical viewpoint and with reference to U.S. data. The purpose is that of pointing at some open questions and problems.     

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a post Keynesian open-economy model

Using a post Keynesian model, this study aims to analyze the stabilizing role of fiscal and monetary policies in an open economy with a managed exchange rate regime. The real exchange rate is modeled as an endogenous variable and inflation explained using the conflicting claims approach. The dynamic properties of macroeconomic equilibrium are evaluated in different regimes of fiscal and monetary policies. The main result of this study suggests that the preferred policy regime is the one in which economic authorities are complementary and fiscal policy plays an explicitly active role. In this regime, the fiscal policy must commit to the target for the rate of capacity utilization and the monetary authority must commit to the inflation target.     

Functional income distribution and aggregate demand in the Euro area

An increase in the wage share has contradictory effects on thesubaggregates of aggregate demand. Private consumption expendituresought to increase because wage incomes typically are associatedwith higher consumption propensities than capital incomes. Investmentexpenditures ought to be negatively affected because investmentwill positively depend on profits. Net exports will be negativelyaffected because an increase in the wage share corresponds toan increase in unit labour costs and thus a loss in competitiveness.Therefore, theoretically, aggregate demand can be either wage-ledor profit-led depending on how these effects add up. The resultswill crucially depend on how open the economy is internationally.The paper estimates a post-Kaleckian macro model incorporatingthese effects for the Euro area and finds that the Euro areais presently in a wage-led demand regime. Implications for wagepolicies are discussed.     

Intra-tourism trade,income distribution and tourism endowment: an econometric investigation

Empirical investigation (Nowak et al., 2012) points out that vertical intra-industry trade (VIIT) in Europe is the dominant type of intra-industry trade (IIT) in the tourism sector. This article is the first in tourism literature to test separately the determinants of vertically and horizontally differentiated services, using the most recent models in the theory of IIT. We examine bilateral trade among all trading partners of the sample of European countries, covering the period from 2000 to 2008. We show that differences in gross domestic product per capita and the income-distribution overlap, as well as cultural proximity, are the most significant driving forces behind VIIT for European countries. Geographic distance has a negative effect, whereas specific tourism endowments and relative size of the economies are less conclusive. These results confirm theory predictions and most of the empirical findings related to the pattern of VIIT for the manufacturing sector. As expected, we find that determinants of VIIT cannot explain horizontal intra-industry trade in tourism. We suggest two alternative methods of estimation: generalized least squares logistic function and the fractional logit estimator. We conclude that there are common factors explaining IIT in the manufacturing and tourism trades.     

Financial development shocks and contemporaneous feedback effect on key macroeconomic indicators: A post Keynesian time series analysis

In this paper we take into account the role of the banking system, credit and stock market in stimulating aggregate demand in post Keynesian tradition. According to the results of impulse response analysis; it appears all three financial development indicators contributed as expected in improving macroeconomic performance of South Korean economy. Stock market capitalisation and domestic credit availability are strongly responsible for stimulation of investment, saving and productivity Growth in Hong Kong. The UK financial system seems vulnerable to future shocks, whether by shocks in the credit markets or stock markets.     

On the dominance of the Keynesian regime in disequilibrium growth theory: A note

This note shows that non-Walrasian disequilibrium models of monetary growth (which are rare) can be considerably simplified in their dynamics if appropriate flexibilities of market economies are taken into account that help to avoid certain types of rationing of economic agents as they are typical for the non-Walrasian modeling of macrodynamics. We consider and modify accordingly an established example of this type of model building and show that propositions on stability and the loss of stability of the then remaining Keynesian regime are much easier to derive and also much more transparent than in their original non-Walrasian setup with its regime switches right at the steady state of the economy.     

Growth, income distribution, and democracy: What the data say

This paper investigates the relationship between income distribution, democratic institutions, and growth. It does so by addressing three main issues: the properties and reliability of the income distribution data, the robustness of the reduced form relationships between income distribution and growth estimated so far, and the specific channels through which income distribution affects growth. The main conclusion in this regard is that there is strong empirical support for two types of explanations, linking income distribution to sociopolitical instability and to the education/fertility decision. A third channel, based on the interplay of borrowing constraints and investment in human capital, also seems to receive some support by the data, although it is probably the hardest to test with the existing data. By contrast, there appears to be less empirical support for explanations based on the effects of income distribution on fiscal policy.     

Socialism after Hayek: A Post Keynesian Contribution to Burczak's Theory of Social Justice

The paper presents a brief overview of the basic premise of the Burczak's Socialism after Hayek, and shows that Burczak's “applied epistemological postmodernism” presents a unique unifying ground for heterodox economics, breaking down traditional barriers between right and left. This new approach allows us to revisit the Marx-Keynes-Hayek debates in a more constructive way for a unified theory of social justice. However, we argue that Burczak's system does not automatically guarantee full employment, so it cannot be considered an ideal theory of social justice. A Post Keynesian contribution is presented in the form of the Employer of Last Resort (ELR) program which we argue is compatible and complementary to Burczak's theory of social justice. Finally, we argue that an adequate system design of the magnitude proposed here must be infomed by the principles of institutional adjustment as outlined by J. Fagg Foster.     

Overhead labour and feedback effects between capacity utilization and income distribution: estimations for the USA economy

ABSTRACT

Empirical studies on the USA have not reached a consensus on whether its demand is wage- or profit-led, leading many scholars to scrutinize what drives the empirical results. This article tests two possible explanations for profit-led results which are related to the presence of overhead labour. To do so, a vector autoregression model is estimated for the USA from 1964 to 2010 and the wage share is split between supervisors/managers and direct workers. The results support the argument that the income redistribution away from workers and towards managers increased the likelihood of profit-led demand and suggest that an increase in the workers’ share of income would stimulate the economy. Also, increases in capacity utilization negatively affect the supervisors’ share, so that short-run profit-led results may be capturing the cyclical behaviour of the profit share, but the effect becomes positive as time goes by, suggesting a complex determination of functional income distribution, as capacity utilization affects it in ambiguous ways.     

Globalization and the effects of changes in functional income distribution on aggregate demand in Germany

Germany has experienced a period of extreme nominal and real wage moderation since the mid‐1990s. Contrary to the expectations of liberal economists, this has failed to improve Germany’s mediocre economic performance. However, Germany is now running substantial current account surpluses. One possible explanation for Germany’s disappointing performance is found in Kaleckian theory, which highlights that the domestic demand effect of a decline in the wage share will typically be contractionary, whereas net exports will increase (Blecker 1989 Blecker, R. 1989. International competition, income distribution and economic growth. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 13: 395–412. [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]). The size of the foreign demand effect will critically depend on the degree of openness of the economy. This paper aims at estimating empirically the demand side of a Bhaduri and Marglin (1990 Bhaduri, A. and Marglin, S. 1990. Unemployment and the real wage: The economic basis for contesting political ideologies. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 14: 375–93. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) type model for Germany. The paper builds on the estimation strategy of Stockhammer, Onaran, and Ederer (2009 Stockhammer, E., Onaran, Ö. and Ederer, S. 2009. Functional income distribution and aggregate demand in the Euro area. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 33(1): 139–59. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) and Hein and Vogel (2008 Hein, E. and Vogel, L. 2008. Distribution and growth reconsidered – empirical results for six OECD countries. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 32: 479–511. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar], 2009 Hein, E. and Vogel, L. 2009. Distribution and growth in France and Germany – single equation estimations and model simulations based on the Bhaduri/Marglin‐model. Review of Political Economy, 21(2): 245–72. [Taylor & Francis Online] [Google Scholar]). The main contribution lies in a careful analysis of the effects of globalization. Since Germany is a large open economy by now it is a particularly interesting case study.     

我国收入分配面临的问题及其对策研究

自改革开放以来,我国的经济取得了快速的发展,与此同时,我国收入分配不公已受到社会各界广泛关注。在我国,城乡之间、地区之间、行业之间的居民收入存在明显的差距。调节收入分配,缩小贫富差距,必须坚持一切从我国实际情况出发,制定正确的政策,促进我国收入分配制度的不断完善。     

A Post-Keynesian Response to Piketty's ‘Fundamental Contradiction of Capitalism’

In Capital in the Twenty-First Century, Thomas Piketty presents a rich set of data that deals with income and wealth distribution, output-wealth dynamics and rates of return. He also proposes some ‘laws of capitalism’. At the core of his argument lies the ‘fundamental inequality of capitalism’, an empirical regularity stating that the rate of return on wealth is greater than the growth rate of the economy. This simple construct allows him to conclude that increasing wealth (and income) inequality is an inevitable outcome of capitalism. While we share some of his conclusions, we will highlight some shortcomings of his approach based on a Cambridge post-Keynesian growth-and-distribution model. The paper makes four points. First, r?>?g is not necessarily associated with increasing inequality in functional distribution. Second, Piketty succumbs to a fallacy of composition when he claims that a necessary condition for r?>?g is that capitalists save a large share of their capital income. Third, post-Keynesians can learn from Piketty's insights about personal income distribution and incorporate them into their models. Fourth, we reiterate the post-Keynesian argument that a well-behaved aggregate production function does not exist and cannot explain income distribution.     

Growth, income distribution and well-being in transition countries

We apply several well-being measures that combine average income with a measure of inequality to international and intertemporal comparisons of well-being in transition countries. Our well-being measures drastically change the impression of levels and changes in well-being compared to a traditional reliance on income measures. Due to low inequality and moderate income levels, socialist countries enjoyed relatively high levels of economic well-being. In the transition process, rising inequality and falling incomes have led to a dramatic absolute decline in well-being and a considerable drop in relative well-being vis-à-vis non-transition countries. We also find a close correlation between income losses and inequality increases. While the transition has been successful in expanding political and civil rights, our indicators suggest that most transition countries are still below the level of economic well-being of the late 1980s.
JEL classification: D6, O15, P27.     

泰国科技发展现状及趋势

泰国是东盟国家中具有重要影响力的国家,其科技基础较好,科技发展水平较高,科技实力较强,在农业、生物技术、清洁能源等领域颇具特色。2012年4月,泰国政府批准通过了《国家科技与创新政策和计划（2012-2021年）》。中泰科技合作具有一定的互补性,合作前景广泛。通过深入分析泰国科技发展的现状及特点,并根据目前中泰科技合作的现状,对进一步深化中泰科技合作提出了政策建议。     

Effective factor endowments, trade openness and income distribution in China

This paper studies the empirical relationship among factor endowment, trade openness and individual income distribution. Using panel data, we show that factor endowment characters, to some extent, explains income gap in China. First, land and Capital intensive provinces have a more equal income distribution while human capital and labor-intensive provinces have a less equal income distribution. Second, Trade openness has a significant effect on China’s income distribution; the interaction between a special endowment and openness has different effect on income distribution; we also show that FDI, economy development, unemployment and reform have considerable negative effect on income distribution. Our results are robust to various kinds of test.     

A spatial econometric analysis of the regional growth and volatility in Europe

Based on a sample of 1,084 European regions (EU15) from 1995 to 2004, we estimate the relationship between the average growth rate of GDP per capita and the volatility of the growth rate allowing for spatial effects. The spatial lag and spatial error models show that the regional per capita growth rate and volatility are significantly positively related on average. However, the inclusion of country interaction terms reveals that the volatility impact is not uniform across countries. In particular, the relationship between growth and volatility is significantly positive for the majority of countries but significantly negative for three countries (namely Finland, Italy, and Ireland).