Institutions and industrial policy in Brazil after two decades: have we built the needed institutions?

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to examine the design and implementation of industrial policy in Brazil based on their capacity to affect the prevailing institutions. We argue that the main reason for the failure of policies in Brazil, and in Latin America, is their inability to induce persistent changes in firms’ innovative behavior. Based on the analysis of national innovation indicators, and on previous empirical studies, we demonstrate that the Brazilian industrial policy was not able to change the prevailing conventions. The main problems related to this fragility are: institutional problems and related to industrial policy development conventions; serious coordination problems; maintaining a macroeconomic policy that is not convergent toward industrial policy efforts; policy instruments that were not able to change prevailing conventions, such as low R&D and innovative expenditures; a set of strategic choices that are inconsistent with innovation, technological catch-up and structural change.     

The impact of (un)conventional expansionary monetary policy on income inequality – lessons from Japan

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on income inequality in Japan, using hitherto unexplored data from the Japan Household Panel Survey. Empirical evidence shows that expansionary monetary policy in Japan has contributed to diminishing the gender pay gap through an increase in working time of women relative to men, but also to increasing the education pay gap. These effects may have materialized via the aggregate demand channel and the labour productivity channel. In contrast, expansionary monetary policy has had no significant impact on the development of the age pay gap.     

The effects of economic policy uncertainty on China’s economy: evidence from time-varying parameter FAVAR

ABSTRACT

This article explores the effects of China’s economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on its fiscal policy, monetary policy and a wide range of macro-economic variables using a time-varying parameter FAVAR model. Based on monthly data from 07/2003 to 08/2017, the time-varying structure of the model allows us to capture the time-varying characteristics of the macro-economic variables and which channel is relevant. Empirical results reveal that the reaction of monetary and fiscal policies to EPU is highly asymmetric across macro-economic circumstances. Loose monetary and fiscal policies are adopted in response to EPU shocks during the financial crisis, while policies are moderately tightened after the crisis. The China Interbank Offered Rate (Chibor) responds more sensitively and severely than M2 to EPU shocks. Additionally, EPU shocks have a significant and negative impact on economic growth, consumption, exchange rates, bonds and the stock market, but showing a positive impact on credit, real estate and fixed asset investment (which might be due to China’s special economic market environment and the high investment return). The results indicate that EPU shocks significantly affect macroeconomic fundamentals through precautionary savings and financial market channels but lose their effectiveness through a ‘real options’ effect.     

Industrial Policy—An Institutional Economic Framework for Assessment

Abstract:

In this article we suggest an institutional economic approach to classifying government policies, thus offering suggestions to improve the expected outcomes of government policy as well. We elaborate the argument for industrial policy-government policy to directly influence investment and resource allocation decisions by private companies. By adopting dimensions for industries that are stable over time, we can suggest which policies are suitable for which industries.     

货币政策与财政政策的区域产业结构调整效应比较

本文运用1978—2007年东、中、西部的面板数据分析。货币政策和财政政策是否具有区域产业结构调整效应结果显示:第一,财政政策具有产业结构调整效应,而货币政策的产业结构调整效应并不明显。第二,货币政策在对第一和第三产业的效应方面强于财政政策,而财政政策则在对第二产业的效应方面具有优势。第三,货币政策和财政政策对三次产业的效应都存在比较明显的区域效应。第四,在东部地区货币政策和财政政策对第一产业和第二产业的效应相差非常悬殊,而对第三产业的效应则集中在高位;在中部地区货币政策和财政政策对第二产业的效应集中在高位;在西部地区货币政策对第一产业的效应集中在高位,而财政政策对第一产业的效应则集中在低位。     

Choosing sides in the trilemma: international financial cycles and structural change in developing economies

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the impact of international financial cycles on structural change in developing economies. It is argued that the impact of these cycles depends on the specific combination of macroeconomic and industrial policies adopted by the developing economy. The cases of Brazil and Argentina are contrasted with those of Korea and China. In the Asian economies, macroeconomic policy has been a complementary tool along with industrial policy to foster the diversification of production and capabilities. Inversely, in the case of the Latin American countries, long periods of real exchange rate (RER) appreciation, combined with the weaknesses (or absence) of industrial policies, contributed to the loss of capabilities and lagging behind.     

Industrial policy revisited: a new structural economics perspective

Whether or not governments should play a facilitating role in economic development has long been a topic for economic discourse and research. As an important instrument to promote economic development, throughout history even to the present, industrial policy is often and actively used by governments. Much controversy surrounds whether and how governments should implement industrial policy.In this article, failures and successes of implementing such policies are analyzed through a new structural economics perspective. Specifically, the article argues that (1) sector-targeted industrial policy is essential to achieve dynamic structural change and rapid, sustained growth in an economy; (2) most industrial policies fail because they target industries that are not compatible with the country’s comparative advantages; (3) successful industrial policy should target industries that reflerct the country’s latent comparative advantages; (4) historical experiences show that in the catching-up stage, the industrial policies of successful countries, in general, have targeted the industries in countries with a similar endowment structure and somewhat higher per capita income; and (5) the Growth Identification and Facilitation Framework (GIFF), based on new structural economics, is a new, effective way to target latent comparative-advantage industries and support their growth.     

Government industrial policy for a healthy world economy

The Japanese concept of “industrial policy” is the subject of this presentation. The central role of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry in the formulation of industrial policy for Japan over the past 35 years is reviewed. Several strategic phases are identified: 1945–1952, reconstruction of the economy; 1952–1960, comparative advantage strategy in capital-intensive industries; 1960–1973, transition to an open economy; 1973 to present, positive support policy for promising industries, e.g., subsidies for high-tech sectors and adjustive policy for declining industries (e.g., disposing of excess capacity in the textile sector). The advantages of National industrial policies for the world economy are indicated.     

Transnational Depoliticisation and Industrial Policy: The European Commission and French Steel (1980–1984)

ABSTRACT

Following the 2008 financial crash, voices have called governments to re-embrace industrial policy and promote industrial development. Such calls presuppose that the past decades witnessed a relative retreat of activist industrial policies. Within international political economy the latter is explained by the limits posed by the structure of global economic governance and globalisation on the state’s interventionist capacities. This article argues that these constraints have enabled states to pursue the transnational depoliticisation of industrial policy and transfer decision-making responsibilities to spheres lying beyond the governmental arena such as transnational institutions. By appealing to supranational economic rules, governments can disclose their own preferences for certain industrial policies and resist pressures to assist declining activities. To substantiate these claims the article proposes an archival investigation of the French government’s management of the steel industry between 1980 and 1984 and its support for a European Commission-led management of restructuring. The findings suggest that the pressures of the Commission played a crucial role in strengthening the government’s effort to implement socially unpopular but economically vital industrial choices.     

From Industrial Policy to Innovation Policy: Japan's Pursuit of Competitive Advantage*

Japan faces significant challenges in encouraging innovation and entrepreneurship. Attempts to formally model past industrial policy interventions uniformly uncover little, if any, positive impact on productivity, growth, or welfare. The evidence indicates that most resource flows went to large, politically influential “backwards” sectors, suggesting that political economy considerations may be central to the apparent ineffectiveness of Japanese industrial policy. Rather than traditional industrial or science and technology policy, financial and labor market reforms appear more promising. As a group, Japan's industrial firms are competitive relative to their foreign counterparts. Where Japan falls behind is in the heavily regulated service sector. The problems appear to be due less to a lack of industrial policy than to an excess of regulation. Japan may have more to gain through restructuring the lagging service sector than by expending resources in pursuit of marginal gains in the industrial sector.     

Competition policy in open economies

Abstract

This paper examines aspects of R&;D spillovers across countries, in particular, the role of international trade and human capital as the catalysts for international diffusion of technology. We present a new way of measuring foreign R&;D stocks embodied in foreign intermediate goods and capital equipment, which we argue is free from the criticism of previous measures. With the pooled panel data spanning 1970 through 1995 for 103 countries, we find that the effects of foreign R&;D on total factor productivity growth of both industrial countries and developing countries are substantial and that human capital is the most influential channel for absorbing foreign R&;D spillovers.     

Estimating a monetary policy reaction function for the dominican republic

Abstract

The paper specifies and estimates a hybrid McCallum–Taylor monetary policy reaction function for the Dominican Republic (DR). The estimated reactions suggest that the Central Bank of the DR has been biased towards targeting the exchange rate. These findings are in line with the evidence on the fear-of-floating characteristic of developing countries. An evaluation of the estimated rule's historical performance shows that monetary base growth below (above) that implied by the ‘average’ policy reaction is associated with better (worse) macroeconomic performance.     

汇率风险和中国产业的国际竞争

在新发展格局下，现代产业发展更加注重发展和安全的平衡。本文采用2005—2018年的数据分析了中国各行业面临的汇率风险暴露和国外产业竞争。研究发现：中国有426%的行业面临汇率风险暴露，资源品行业受到汇率冲击的影响最为严重，可贸易品行业受益于人民币兑美元贬值，但汇率的敏感性远低于日美贸易战时期。中国有389%的行业面临来自美国的产业竞争，产业支持政策在一定程度上增强了中国产业的竞争力。除美国外，中国的产业竞争主要来自英国、法国等欧洲发达国家。在此基础上，讨论了后疫情时代企业国际化的困难和应对。本文的研究对于汇率风险管理和产业政策制定有重要的参考价值。     

Local industrial policy and productivity: Evidence from China

Subnational governments played key roles in China's past rapid growth, and local industrial policy was among their most frequently used tools. Using a plausible comprehensive local industrial policies variable constructed using local Five-Year Plans and a comprehensive dataset of all medium and large firms in China between 1998 and 2013, this paper attempts to understand whether such interventions are helpful for China's growth. Our results indicate that although local industrial policies attract more low productivity firms, they do achieve their purpose of improving the productivity of the targeted sectors, at firm and city levels, especially in the long run.     

Strategic competition and optimal parallel import policy

Abstract In a two‐country Hotelling type duopoly model of price competition, we show that parallel import (PI) policy can act as an instrument of strategic trade policy. The home firm’s profit is higher when it cannot price discriminate internationally if and only if the foreign market is sufficiently bigger than the domestic one. The key mechanism in the model is that the home firm’s incentive to keep its domestic price close to the optimal monopoly price affects its behavior during price competition abroad. We also analyze the welfare implications of PI policies and show that our key insights extend to quantity competition.     

The political economy of preferential trade arrangements: The case of Japan

ABSTRACT

Support for open trade regimes varies. We analyze Japanese survey data on individuals' preferences for TPP, unilateral import liberalization, and East Asian economic integration, and compare factors influencing policy preferences. First, despite the massive negative campaigns against TPP, 42.8% of individuals support Japan’s participation in TPP, vs. 21.1% against. Second, economic factors do matter for an individual in determining his/her policy preference over TPP. Third, noneconomic factors such as gender, age, access to accurate information, and attachment to hometown also feature as determinants. Fourth, although preferences over TPP and other policy options are positively correlated, some factors decrease TPP support but do not undermine support for two other less-politicized policy options: lack of access to accurate information and some industry and regional TPP-specific factors. Criticism impacts negatively on FTA policy preferences. Finally, we discuss economic policy implications for relationships between China, Japan, and Korea.

Abbreviations: FTA: Free trade agreement; JA: Japan agricultural cooperative; TPP: Trans-Pacific partnership agreement.     

Producing Airpower: The Rise and Fall of Neo-Liberalism’s Defence Agenda

ABSTRACT

Few policy issues are more challenging than complex weaponry’s procurement and employment. Technology drives weapon costs upwards faster than economies are growing and militaries struggle to maintain increasingly sophisticated arms. Certain governments have adopted a reform agenda rooted in neo-liberal economic theory to address these challenges. Two broad policies – enhancing inter-firm competition for contracts and outsourcing activities to the private sector – emerged as central to this reform agenda. Although rarely presented as such, these reforms present a significant intellectual challenge to the hitherto predominant statist model for military power’s provision. Surprisingly, in light of neo-liberal policies’ adoption by militarily active states, no study has systematically examined these reforms’ content and impact. My article fills this lacuna by examining the state – the United Kingdom – that most consistently enacted neo-liberal defence reforms. To preview the conclusion, neo-liberal reforms initially generated small initial efficiencies, but then produced significant adverse consequences when pursued beyond a certain minimal level. Britain’s competition policy, for example, ultimately incentivized firms to consolidate into monopolies, which narrowed the scope for future competition and prevented the state from upholding fixed price contracts. Outsourcing, likewise, proved detrimental once policymakers sought to extend its scope beyond a limited range of simple services.     

Openness and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: A Cross-country Analysis

Abstract

This paper evaluates the relationship between a country's openness to trade and the effectiveness of monetary policy in changing output growth and inflation in 29 different countries. Using quarterly data from the 1957–2003 period, empirical estimates based on individual country specifications show that the direction, significance and nature of the relationship between openness and the effectiveness of monetary policy on output growth as well as inflation vary considerably across countries.     

Household debt,macroprudential rules,and monetary policy

Today's Canadian economy features a historic high of household debt and persistently low growth rate. The average debt-to-GDP ratio has reached the level experienced in the U.S. just prior to the recent financial crisis. In this paper, we ask whether monetary policy should lean against the household indebtedness or macroprudential policies are better suited for the task. To provide a quantitative answer, we develop a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a micro-founded banking sector. We estimate the model using Canadian data and conduct policy experiments. Our findings favor macroprudential approach to reining in indebtedness: using monetary policy that reacts to household debt increases inflation volatility and lowers borrowers' welfare, while using macroprudential policies such as lowering the loan-to-value ratio limit increases borrowers' welfare.     

A political economy approach to endogenous industrial policies

This paper uses a political economy perspective to study the endogenous formation of economic policies and its interplay with political institutions. This paper provides a novel view that both the institutions and economic development status are essential factors in endogenously determining economic policies. The model aims to explain both the differences in the degree of adopting industrial policies as well as the differences in the types of industrial policies being implemented. Using a concise framework with two country-specific characteristics, the baseline model can capture three main types of industrial policy platforms of interest. In a country where voters’ political awareness is positively skewed and press freedom is relatively low, pro-heavy industry policies would be present most of the time; South Korea is representative of this type of countries. In a country where voters’ political awareness is positively skewed and press freedom is relatively high, there is usually an active industrial policy, though the target of the policy changes over time. Specifically, the policy is favoring the industry of which the industry-specific TFP is relatively high; Japan is representative of this type of countries. In a country where voters’ political awareness is negatively skewed and press freedom is relatively high, there is usually no active industrial policy; the U.S. is representative of this type of countries.