碳中和背景下中国能源中短期预测研究

2020年9月,中国政府在第75届联合国大会上提出碳达峰和碳中和目标.\"2060年实现碳中和\"愿景将对中国能源结构转型产生深刻影响.运用CHINAGEM模型,针对当前政策情景(基准情景)和碳中和情景(政策情景)进行模拟分析,预测分析了2020—2040年中国能源发展状况,包括一次能源消费总量及其构成、终端能源消费量及其构成和发电量及其构成.基于分析结果,提出了实现碳中和总目标下,中短期内各项宏观指标的阶段性目标.     

Environmentally Sustainable Transport: Definition and Long-Term Economic Impacts for Austria

The transition to an environmentally sustainable transport system involves a combination of technological and demand-side transport policies. Regulatory, educational and economic instruments can be used to enhance the development of cleaner transport technologies as well as the shift from road-based towards more environmentally benign modes of transport. This article provides estimates of overall economic impacts in the long term and describes the required change in the transport system. The article proceeds in three steps. First, this article reviews concepts of sustainability and applies them to transportation. Second, a small open economy computable general equilibrium model for Austria is developed to evaluate the long-term macroeconomic and sectoral impacts of a sustainable freight transport policy. Third, simulation results are discussed and conclusions drawn concerning the crucial features of a sustainable freight transport policy.Although the required transition within the transport system is substantial, the economic costs in terms of GDP are comparably low and employment is likely to increase slightly.     

养老保险制度选择与劳动供给研究

在内生经济增长模型中,劳动是影响生产函数或产出的重要因素。生产过程中劳动投入的多少取决于劳动的供给。养老保险的缴费与给付是否关联以及两者之间的比较必然会影响个人的劳动供给决策。研究养老保险制度选择对劳动供给的影响,主要是考察不同的养老保险制度是如何影响劳动者的退休决策和在职期间劳动者的劳动供给决策的。     

退休年龄选择机理：基于人力资本与社会保障的视角

近年来,延长退休年龄问题日益成为社会和学界的热点话题。本文从我国人口老龄化社会的到来并渐近达到峰值谈起,指出人口老龄化趋势、人均寿命的延长以及我国人口平均人力资本存量的不断增加要求我们实行延迟退休制度。     

A computable general equilibrium analysis of the welfare effects of trade liberalization under different market structures

Using a static world computable general equilibrium model with 16 sectors and 14 regions, this paper compares welfare effects of trade liberalization of the perfectly competitive model and eight imperfectly competitive models. Our main findings are as follows. First, the size of the welfare impact systematically depends on the type of model. Second, the welfare impact of the perfectly competitive model is not necessarily smaller than those of imperfectly competitive models. Third, the integrated market model tends to have a larger welfare impact than the segmented market model. Fourth, the model with the fixed number of firms tends to have a small welfare impact. Finally, the variety effect tends to have a stronger influence on the welfare effects of liberalization than do scale and markup effects. Differences in the models can be viewed as differences in the economic structures of the regions being analyzed, and therefore the analysis in this paper makes it possible to derive policy implications with regard to the relationship between economic structure and trade liberalization.     

General equilibrium effects of environmental policy: A CGE-modeling approach

Estimation of emission control cost functions is often carried out in a partial equilibrium framework, i.e., under the assumption that emission control measures have negligible effects on input and output prices. In this paper a computable general equilibrium model is used for simulation of the impact on factor prices and resource allocation of reductions of SO _infx ^sup- , NO _infx ^su- and CO₂-emissions. Thus the model includes markets for tradable emission permits, and the equilibrium prices of permits reflect the marginal costs of emission control. The results suggest that major emission reductions are likely to have general equilibrium effects, and thus that emission control cost functions that fail to take these effects into account may give a distorted picture of the economic impact of emission control.     

ACE versus CBIT: Which is Better for Investment and Welfare?

This article analyses the switch to an Allowance for CorporateEquity (ACE) or to a Comprehensive Business Income Tax (CBIT)type of tax system starting from the present German tax system.We show that in case an ACE type of reform is financed by anincrease in the VAT and not in the profit tax, it might be preferredto a CBIT even in the context of an open economy. Moreover,the required exogenous increase in the profit tax rate cannotensure revenue neutrality on its own due to the negative generalequilibrium effects it triggers on the whole economy. For aCBIT, the exogenous reduction in the tax rates on corporateand non-corporate profits leads to better results than whenwe allow for an endogenous change in the VAT. The best resultsarise when the CBIT is accompanied by a provision for immediatewrite-off and a lower profit tax or when the ACE with no additionalcapital gains taxation on household side is financed by an increasein the VAT. (JEL-Classification: C68, D58, D92, E62, H25.)     

Why Do Resource-Abundant Economies Grow More Slowly?

This article suggests an alternative explanation for why resource-rich economies have lower growth rates: because they are likely to be living beyond their means. It is shown that overshooting the steady state's equilibrium consumption and investment can be optimal in a Ramsey growth model with natural resources. Therefore, the economy will converge to its steady state from above, displaying negative growth rates on the transition. A dynamic general equilibrium model is calibrated to the Venezuelan economy and shown to approximate the economy's performance over the oil boom years adequately.     

Social incidence and economic costs of carbon limits

This paper discusses both distributional and allocational effects of limiting carbon dioxide emissions in a small and open economy. It starts from the assumption that Switzerland attempts to stabilize its greenhouse gas emissions over the next 25 years, and evaluates costs and benefits of the respective reduction program. From a methodological viewpoint, this paper illustrates, how a computable general equilibrium approach can be adopted for identifying economic effects of cutting greenhouse gas emissions on the national level. From a political economy point of view it considers the social incidence of a greenhouse policy. It shows in particular that public acceptance can be increased and economic costs of greenhouse policies can be reduced, if carbon taxes are accompanied by revenue redistribution.