人口老龄化对劳动供给和人力资本投资时间的影响

参照贝克尔的时间分配理论和海克曼的生命周期理论,运用动态世代交叠均衡模型,研究人口老龄化对劳动供给和人力资本投资时间分配的影响,并进一步考察人口老龄化对生产能力的间接影响。结果显示：在短期内,人口老龄化会导致人力资本投资时间的增加和劳动供给的减少,进而引发社会生产能力的下降,增加了人口老龄化的经济成本;在长期内,人口老龄化使得年轻人能够为社会提供更多的熟练劳动力,进而提高了社会劳动生产率,降低了人口老龄化的经济成本。     

Residential mobility and the local context: Comparing long-term and short-term spatial trends of population movements in Greece

Residential mobility is a key dimension of population dynamics shaping urban growth and rural development at different spatio-temporal scales. Assuming spatial mobility as increasingly dependent on the intrinsic characteristics of local contexts, the present study investigates long-term and short-term population movements in a European country (Greece), in light of regional urbanization processes and socioeconomic development. A multidimensional analysis of indicators of residential stability and background variables was carried out with the aim at evaluating the influence of local contexts on more general processes of population mobility. Different typologies of spatial mobility associated to factors (directly or indirectly) dependent on demographic dynamics, economic performances and urban cycles were identified. The empirical findings of this study evidence (more or less traditional) paths of internal migration and a latent process of population relocation across metropolitan regions, together with more recent international migrations at both working and retirement age. While short-range population movements were the ultimate result of late suburbanization in Greece, medium- and broad-range mobility consolidated the country's divide in urban and rural areas, evidencing the attractive role of Athens. Spatial direction and intensity of population movements reflect complex socioeconomic transformations, whose knowledge provides innovative visions for a better understanding of future demographic dynamics in Mediterranean Europe.     

基于流动人口特征的首都人口疏解与管控

流动人口的迁移行为是多种因素共同作用的结果,关于人口迁移的政策制定应建立在对流动人口特征及变化趋势的深入了解基础之上。在京流动人口以劳动年龄人口为主,对于增加劳动力供给和缓解老龄化压力做出了显著的贡献。多数流动人口在京居住依赖租房,房租是导致其生活成本日益上升的重要因素;流动人口的社会融入程度较低,尤其城乡接合部地区社会隔离现象较为显著,大量流动人口未能有效融入现代城市的生产生活体系。首都的人口管控与城市治理是一个系统工程,既要通过“控”“收”联动,加强人口的有序流动,也要疏解与引导相结合,使流动人口的结构与行为更符合首都发展的需要。     

浅析马斯洛需求层次理论在流动人口管理中的应用

随着我国城市化进程的推进,越来越多的流动人口涌入城市。当前,我国在流动人口的管理过程中,尚存在一些问题。本文从马斯洛需求层次理论的角度展开分析,建立"流动人口管理图",提出改善对策。     

南京市人口规模预测与空间分布引导研究

人口规模预测是城市总体规划编制工作中的基础性工作,本研究结合南京城市总体规划修编对城市人口规模进行了多方案、多角度的预测与校核,并针对现状问题和城市发展目标提出了相应的人口发展策略和空间布局建议,为科学确定城市用地规模和用地布局提供了支撑.     

The changing distribution of physicians.

Over the past decade the problem of physician distribution has been the object of much research. Most past studies, however, have been cross sectional. In this study, ecological (county level) data for two decades are examined. Six consistent predictors of the physician/population ratio (PPR) were identified: the hospital bed/population ratio, per capita retail sales, percentage male professionals, per cent families with high income, the presence of a medical school and percentage of the population over 65 years of age. The percentage of physicians in group practice, recently lauded as a solution to problems of maldistribution, was found to be negatively related to change in the physician/population ratio. Predictions for more populous counties were found to be more accurate than those for less populous counties. Policy implications are discussed.     

质量生态学研究(4)--品牌种群的演化规律

通过分析品牌概念的演化过程和品牌种群的演化机制，揭示了品牌种群从诞生时少量品牌、到发展时众多品牌、再到成熟期少量知名品牌的变化过程。     

Population and employment densities: structure and change

"We examine spatial patterns and their changes during the 1970s for the Los Angeles region, by estimating monocentric and polycentric density functions for employment and population. Downtown Los Angeles is clearly identified as the statistical monocentric center of the region, and it is the most consistently strong center in the polycentric patterns. Polycentric models fit statistically better than monocentric models, and there was some shift in employment distribution toward a more polycentric pattern. These findings verify the existence of polycentricity in Los Angeles and demonstrate for the first time that employment and especially population follow a polycentric pattern based on exogenously defined employment centers. The results confirm that both employment and population became more dispersed during the 1970s."     

基于灰色系统理论的河南未来人口发展预测研究

以河南人口发展数为研究对象,根据相关统计资料应用年末总人口数值建立灰色动态预测模型,对未来10年河南省人口数值进行预测研究。结果表明,河南人口2010年底将超过1亿,2015年为1.03亿,到2020年将达到1.05亿,年均增加51.6万人,最后给出了一些相关建议。     

Economic downturns and compositional effects in regional population structures by age: a multi-temporal analysis in Greek regions, 1981–2017

Population movements (international and internal migration) and changing fertility and mortality patterns have significantly affected demographic structures. Investigation of the relationship between (evolving) population structures and economic downturns is a key issue in economic demography. Analysis of compositional changes in regional population structures over a sufficiently long time interval may provide an informed knowledge to better understanding of this relationship and the underlying socioeconomic context in European countries. Based on these premises, Greece was considered a paradigmatic case of sequential economic expansions and recessions, impacting the structure of resident population in the last four decades. In this work, changes over time in population structures by age in Greek regions were explored (1981–2017) using a multi-temporal principal component analysis. A diachronic analysis of compositional effects of economic downturns on regional population structures indicates spatially-heterogeneous demographic processes in Greece. The subsequent recession has represented a turning point in Greek demography, consolidating changes in traditional family structures, while stimulating out-migration at younger ages to Northern and Western European regions and containing immigration from developing countries. Metropolitan areas and coastal districts had more rapid population dynamics, while peripheral rural regions experienced more rapid changes towards aging. Population aging had a short-term impact on regional population structures in Greece, with possibly negative consequences for the ability of the country’s economy to recover from crisis.

     

杭州市交通拥堵治理对策研究

随着工业化、城市化进程的加快,越来越多的人口和资源涌入城市。城市居住人口密度不断加大,出行越来越拥挤,城市交通拥堵已经成为困扰国内外大城市发展的一个普遍性难题。杭州地处长三角的腹地,近年来随着经济和旅游业的快速发展,交通拥堵问题已经成为制约杭城发展的一个难题。因此,当前亟需结合杭州市的城市特点,借鉴发达国家城市治理交通拥堵的经验,提出解决杭州市交通拥堵问题的策略和方法。     

基于BP神经网络模型的国内旅游人数预测

旅游人数的分析和预测是旅游规划与管理的关键性、基础性工作。目前旅游人数预测主要采用基于传统研究方法的预测方法。提出了一种基于BP神经网络模型的国内旅游人数预测新方法,对国内旅游人数的变化趋势进行了综合分析与预测,结果表明该方法具有较高的精度,该模型在旅游人数预测中的应用是可行的。     

Some tests of alternative urban population density functions

The purpose of this study is to test the usefulness of some alternative gross population density functions for urbanized areas. Two evaluation criteria are used; maximum explanatory power in standard regression analysis and accuracy in predicting total population in the urbanized area. It is concluded that the explanatory power of the negative exponential function can be improved upon in some cases by adding a quadratic distance term, but that population can be predicted more accurately if the quadratic term is omitted. Also, it is found that constraining the negative exponential function to predict population exactly reduces explanatory power by an insignificant amount.     

Ethnic Competition for Residential Space in Miami, Florida, 1970–80

A bstract . Between 1970 and 1980 the Hispanic population of Miami had a phenomenal rate of growth while the Black population also grew rapidly. The non-Hispanic White population actually experienced a numerical decline. The Hispanic population of the city has been highly successful in improving its economic well-being and has been able to penetrate deeply into non-Hispanic White neighborhoods throughout the city. Blacks have not been able to increase their economic well-being as greatly and their expansion has been confined largely to neighborhoods adjacent to older Black neighborhoods. Non-Hispanic White neighborhoods shrank considerably in area during the decade and today are mainly found on Miami Beach , in northeast Miami and the far south of the city. If large scale Hispanic migration continues, and the Black population maintains its rate of growth, by 1990 Miami will likely have an even smaller non-Hispanic White population than today and be ethnically more segregated.     

分析聚乙烯燃气管道工程设计与施工技术要点

近年来,随着经济的发展,城市化进程也在不断的加快,农村人口快速向着城镇涌入,使得城镇发展过程中面临越来越多的来自人口和资源等多方面的压力,对城市基础设计的建设也带来了巨大的挑战。城市燃气管网建设是城市建设中重要的基础设施之一,在城市建设中起着重要的作用。本文则主要针对城市燃气管网建设中,聚乙烯燃气管道的工程设计与施工的相关问题进行简单的探讨。     

浅析乌鲁木齐市维吾尔族流动人口对城市民族关系的影响

随着城市化进程的不断加快,越来越多的农牧区少数民族通过进城务工,旅游经商等方式进入城市,对城市的社会经济以及民族关系等方面产生了深远的影响。文章分析了乌鲁木齐市维吾尔族流动人口特点及现状,进而探索其对乌鲁木齐现有民族关系产生的影响,并提出针对性的关于维吾尔族流动人口管理与服务方面的对策及建议,这对乌鲁木齐构建和谐民族关系、促进乌鲁木齐市经济发展、社会稳定具有重要的现实意义。     

人口扰动与就业压力

本文对比分析了中国与英国、美国和加拿大的人口统计数据,提出并计算了人口扰动率,发现了人口扰动对就业压力的影响程度.在未来5年内,由于人口异常扰动而产生的新增就业人口将给中国造成严重的就业压力,必须采取积极的应对措施缓解这个矛盾.     

The general equilibrium effects of congestion externalities

This is the second in a series of three articles on the topic of congestion externalities. We use an urban general-equilibrium model to compute two types of cities: the market-equilibrium city, in which congestion externalities occur, and the optimum city. The optimum city has a more dispersed distribution of employment, and a more concentrated distribution of residence. If the population of the city is fixed, the optimum pricing of transportation generates a per capita welfare gain of $3.78 per week. If the population of the city is endogenous, the internalization of congestion externalities causes the city to grow.     

The components of landline telephone survey coverage bias. The relative importance of no-phone and mobile-only populations

The continuously growing mobile-only population raises concerns regarding the representativeness of traditional landline telephone surveys. At this time, the mobile-only population differs significantly from general population, which leads to coverage bias when using fixed-line samples only for telephone surveys. However, in many European countries the mobile-only population is not the only source of coverage bias in telephone surveys. In addition, we have to consider coverage biases caused by considerable proportions of citizens without any telephone service. Since these two groups differ from the general population with respect to differential socio-demographic categories, in our view, the negative effects of mobile-only coverage error in traditional landline telephone surveys might in fact compensate—in part—for coverage bias caused by the no-phone population. To test this hypothesis of compensating coverage biases we calculated relative coverage biases caused by the mobile-only population and relative coverage biases caused by the no-phone population in 30 European countries for two socio-demographic variables in two points in time. Results are presented for four groups of countries that differ with respect to no-phone and mobile-only rates. Results suggest that—in general—mobile-only biases and no-phone biases do not compensate to a great extent, and thus the alarming mobile-only biases cannot be neglected when using telephone surveys in the estimation of population parameters. Nevertheless, there are several countries where the bias caused by the mobile-only population is far bigger than the joint bias caused by the mobile-only population and the no-phone population. This finding suggests that biases caused by the recent mobile-only population would be even more severe if the no-phone population did not exist.     

Urbanization and Migration in Brazil

A bstract . Brazil's rural to urban migration has been dramatic. In 1940 only 15 percent of the country's population lived in urbanized areas. By 1970 more than 50 percent were so classified. This trend in population concentration continues. Studies of the causes and the consequences of population shifts in Brazil when based upon "choice models" of decision making are inconclusive. The current trend in urban migration reflects the impact of structural changes in Brazil's economy including industrialization, agricultural automation , and the accompanying modifications of programs and policies of Brazil's changing governmental elite. Governmental policies designed to stem the flow of population to the cities will require structural changes in the economy comparable to those which precipitated the migration.