Monetary Policy and Financial Inclusion in Sub-Sahara Africa: A Panel VAR Approach

ABSTRACT

This article investigates the dynamic and bi-causal link between monetary policy and financial inclusion in sub-Saharan Africa using a panel VAR framework. The researcher obtained data from World Development Indicators (WDI) spanning from 1990 to 2014 for 48 sub-Saharan African economies. The findings suggest that a bi-causal relationship exists between monetary policy and financial inclusion. Specifically, it is evident that monetary policy affects financial inclusion, and financial inclusion is also influenced by monetary policy. The policy implication of this study is that the effectiveness of monetary policy depends on financial inclusion. Hence, the efforts of governments in sub-Saharan African countries should aim at policies that enhance financial inclusion for effective implementation of monetary policy. Also, promoting financial inclusion will require governments in sub-Saharan Africa to reduce their monetary policy rates.     

基于风险传导视角的金融危机剖析

金融危机的频繁发生,给全球经济造成严重影响。从风险传导的视角出发,通过对传导源、传导载体及传导路径等方面的深入剖析,分析金融政策风险传导的过程,将给金融政策风险管理及金融危机防范提供新的思路。在对比历次金融危机风险传导的过程中,探索其共通规律及差异,为防范金融危机爆发提供有效地建议措施。     

发展中国家金融自由化的路径研究

20世纪70年代中期以来，发达国家与发展中国家都先后进行了金融自由化改革。由于经济基础以及相应的金融制度的差异，发达国家与发展中国家的金融自由化路径呈现出不同的特征。本试图通过分析比较发达国家与发展中国家金融自由化路径的差异，来探索一条适合发展中国家的金融自由化之路。     

Central Banks and Macroeconomic Ambidexterity

The financial crisis of 2008 led to questions of whether monetary policy alone was sufficient to stabilise the macroeconomy and the financial system. The result has been an emphasis on macroprudential financial regulation to act in tandem with monetary policy. This article describes the emergence of macroprudential policy, how historical financial crises might have been mitigated had it been in place, and its ambidexterity with monetary policy as twin instruments for macroeconomic stabilisation.     

银行理财产品对货币政策的影响及对策

近年来,银行理财产品发展迅速,对货币政策的影响日益明显。要建立健全银行理财产品统计信息制度,完善货币政策工具,改变货币政策中介目标。     

风险承担渠道：货币政策信贷传导渠道新探

近年来,＂风险承担渠道＂作为货币政策传导的一条新渠道,逐渐引起学界和业界的广泛关注。2008年爆发了全球性金融危机,反思其成因,＂过低的利率＂被一些学者认为是重要的诱因之一。长时期过于宽松的货币政策将引起投资者风险偏好的上升,导致金融不平衡的累积。风险承担渠道的研究表明,追求物价稳定的宽松货币政策对金融稳定产生了负面的影响。物价稳定与金融稳定双重目标的有效实现,需要货币政策与宏观审慎政策的协调配合。     

Niedrige Zinsen — gesamtwirtschaftliche Ursachen und Folgen

Due to the financial crises from 2008 to 2012, unconventional monetary policy caused an environment of record low interest rates around the world. Maintaining the low interest rate policy might be reasonable for the ECB in the short run in order to fight the fragmentation of the financial market and the risk of defl ation in the Eurozone. Some authors argue that permanently low interest rates lead to wrong incentives in the financial market for debtors and creditors alike. They fear potential risks for fiscal policy and financial stability in Germany and recommend macroprudential measures beyond the Basel III framework and a beginning exit of the ECB from its unconventional monetary policy. Others warn against overburdening monetary policy. They find rather that effective financial market regulation and proper fiscal rules and institutions are required to secure financial market stability and the sustainability of public debt and that a premature exit from accommodating monetary policies would do more harm than good. They argue that monetary policy alone will not solve Europe’s problems. The differing recommendations are mainly based on differing assessments of the European business cycle.     

Monetary,Financial and Fiscal Stability in the East African Community: Ready for a Monetary Union?

We examine prospects for a monetary union in the East African Community (EAC) by developing a stylised model of policymakers' decision problem that allows for uncertain benefits derived from monetary, financial and fiscal stability and then calibrating the model for the EAC for the period 2003–10. When policymakers properly allow for uncertainty, none of the countries wants to pursue a monetary union based on either monetary or financial stability grounds, and only Rwanda might favour it on fiscal stability grounds; we argue that robust institutional arrangements assuring substantial improvements in monetary, financial and fiscal stability are needed to compensate.     

我国货币政策传导机制现状及疏通对策研究——基于稳健货币政策背景

在稳健货币政策背景下,我国货币政策传导机制仍然存在传导渠道效率评判标准缺失、传导机制受阻后货币政策效率偏低、金融市场欠发达对传导渠道疏通能力较低等问题。应采取完善货币政策框架和利率传导渠道、强化货币政策工具定价和结构性调节功能、发展资本市场以拓展融资渠道、强化金融监管保持货币政策独立性等措施,努力疏通我国货币政策传导机制。     

Integrating Financial Stability into Monetary Policy

The global financial crisis has highlighted the importance of integrating financial stability concerns into monetary policy. In the Bank of Canada’s view, monetary policy should be the last line of defence against threats to financial stability, behind the joint responsibility of borrowers and lenders, appropriate regulatory oversight, and sound macroprudential policies. Still, it is critical to understand the interlinkages between monetary policy and financial stability, given that the objectives are not always consistent. This implies the necessity of trade-offs. At the Bank of Canada, this is regarded as a problem of risk management rather than policy optimization. That is why the Bank operates a risk-management approach to monetary policy—keeping inflation control as its primary mission.     

美国货币政策调整对中国的溢出效应与传导机制研究

文章基于高频识别和反事实分析方法研究后发现,美国货币政策冲击对我国宏观经济的影响及其传导途径在2008年金融危机前后具有显著的不一致性。在金融危机前,美国的货币政策冲击主要通过汇率渠道对我国通货膨胀与产出产生显著的正向影响;在金融危机后,美国的货币政策冲击主要通过基础货币渠道对我国的宏观产出与物价产生显著的负向影响。这种不一致性是由央行逆周期调节在金融危机前后的差异所导致的:金融危机前,央行为抑制人民币汇率过快升值,被动实行扩张性货币政策,导致我国通货膨胀走高;而金融危机后,央行追随美国紧缩性货币政策,逆向调节美国货币政策冲击对人民币汇率的影响,加剧了我国宏观产出的负向波动。     

动态货币政策、投资水平与企业价值波动

我国货币政策松紧交替进行,但鲜有文献探讨宽松与紧缩交替的动态货币政策对企业风险、业绩等产出指标的共同影响作用。本文选取2001年至2012年A股上市公司为样本,将此期间划分为宽松与紧缩四个交替的货币政策时期。研究发现：货币政策宽松期（紧缩期）投资水平越高的企业,在货币政策紧缩期（宽松期）经营业绩下降越大（小）,陷入财务危机的可能性越高（低）,企业价值越低（高）。     

The necessity for a strategic approach to monetary policy

The Fed has a spotty track record, and its discretionary approach to conducting monetary policy will lead to the same mistakes it made in the past. I emphasize the importance of adopting a strategic framework for conducting monetary policy. The Fed has constantly changed the course of monetary policy in response to high-frequency data and other temporary factors. The Fed’s excessive monetary ease has distorted economic and financial behavior. The Fed should base its policy on longer-run objectives rather than short-run economic and financial fluctuations, and communicate these objectives to the public and to financial markets. Under the Financial Choice Act, the Fed would have to establish a strategic guideline, and explain to Congress why monetary policy may be deviating from the guideline. I respect the Fed and see the need for change to maintain its credibility. The Fed must acknowledge its shortfalls and modify its focus.     

货币政策对宏观杠杆率缺口的影响研究

2008年金融危机以来,我国宏观杠杆率迅速上升.不少学者认为过高的杠杆率可能增加金融风险,甚至引发金融危机.本文通过国家资产负债表的思想在索洛增长模型中引入金融因素,以研究宏观杠杆率的演化路径和货币政策对宏观杠杆率的影响.结果发现,一国宏观杠杆率有着自己的时间趋势,而货币政策会使得宏观杠杆率反向偏离其趋势.研究结论表明不宜随意确定目标宏观杠杆率,也不应通过紧缩货币来达到降杠杆的目的.     

我国货币政策效果弱化的原因及对策

从宏观经济层面和货币政策本身以及中央银行的独立性等微观层面分析,使我国货币政策效果弱化的原因包括金融抑制、外汇占款、货币政策传导机制不畅、中央银行缺乏独立性等,针对这些问题我国应在疏通货币政策传导机制、大力发展金融机构债券市场和企业短期债券市场、深化国有商业银行改革、协调发展资本市场和货币市场等方面采取措施。     

基于稳定性与流动性视角下的国际货币体系演变分析

国际货币制度历次的变革都是基于对国际货币流动性与稳定性的权衡取舍的制度安排。以牙买加体系为例,可以总结为牙买加体系酝酿金融危机,金融危机冲毁牙买加体系。金融危机内生于现有国际货币制度,如果现有的国际货币制度得不到本质性的改变,那么源于美国的金融危机也将无法得到彻底消除,偶发的金融危机也必将是国际货币体制内在的特征。在流动性与稳定性的双重视角下,国际货币体系改革推进的最有可能的路径是ROW国家之间增加非美元结算,减少对美元的需求,并且随着经济实力的提升,进一步加强改革的力度。在当前国际货币金融体系约束下,人民币在国际化进程中的短期操作思路仍是以通过与ROW国家的非美元结算合作以弱化对美元的需求。     

CHAOTIC DYNAMICS OF FINANCING INVESTMENT

The paper introduces the financial sector in a standard multiplier‐accelerator framework by incorporating financial variables in the investment function. The resultant equation is similar in form to that of a logistic map, and hence behaves unpredictably under certain values of the parameters. Since monetary authorities have a large influence on many of these parameters, monetary policies are effective in both controlling investment and preventing or postponing a financial crisis. The monetary authorities, however, are also keen to play an additional role of keeping the system predictable. Under certain conditions, there could be a conflict between these two objectives—of preventing a financial crisis and keeping the system predictable.     

Monetary and fiscal policy transmission in the Euro-area: evidence from a structural VAR analysis

This paper studies the transmission of monetary and fiscal policy in the Euro-area. To do so, structural VAR models are estimated. First, the EMU countries are considered as an aggregate entity and the estimation results are compared with those for the US and Japan. Attention is also paid to interaction of macroeconomic policies and the effects of shocks in financial markets. As a next step, SVARs are estimated for the individual EMU countries to analyze cross-country differences. It turns out that, compared to the EMU aggregate, individual EU countries react rather differently to monetary and fiscal policy shocks.     

基于战略视角的农村金融区域供给考量

农村经济结构的调整、农业产业的升级引起金融供给结构的变化,农村金融必须从战略的高度考量区域金融供给的目标和重点,把握金融发展与改革的政策取向。在财政支农支出有限,城市带动农村的能力短期内不可能迅速提升的现实条件下,发展农业生产必须寻求国家财政金融政策的特殊支持,在用活各种金融政策与各种金融手段的合力上作文章。     

金融结构演变、货币政策与银行风险承担异质性

基于2002-2017年165家银行的面板数据,本文采用可行广义最小二乘(FGLS)方法实证检验金融结构演变视角下货币政策对银行风险承担渠道的影响。研究发现:金融结构的变化对银行风险承担具有显著影响,随着直接融资占比的上升,银行资产端风险承担显著减少,但负债端风险承担显著增加;控制住金融结构的作用之后,货币政策对银行资产端风险承担和负债端风险承担也具有显著的异质性影响,具体来说,价格型货币政策的紧缩使得银行资产端风险承担显著减少而导致银行负债端风险承担显著增加,数量型货币政策的紧缩则使得银行资产端风险承担和负债端风险承担同时减少;此外,货币政策与金融结构对银行风险承担具有显著的交互影响,随着直接融资占比的上升,价格型货币政策工具对银行资产端风险承担的影响减弱,对银行负债端风险承担的影响没有表现出显著变化,数量型货币政策工具对银行资产端风险承担和负债端风险承担的影响都受到削弱。研究结论的政策含义对货币当局、监管部门以及商业银行都具有重要意义。