Environmental Tax Reform in a Small Open Economy With Structural Unemployment

The paper examines the effects of an environmental tax reform in a small open economy with decentralised wage bargaining, monopolistically competitive firms and equilibrium unemployment. There is a tradable and a non-tradable sector and all firms use labour as well as an imported polluting factor of production (energy). A key result is that a tax on energy, recycled to reduce the payroll tax, reduces unemployment if there is a tradable sector wage premium. However, even if energy taxes may boost employment, welfare will not necessarily improve. Numerical simulations suggest that energy taxes in general provide an environmental dividend but also reduce real GDP.     

Fiscal Policy Reforms in a Global Economy

Two countries are populated by workers and capitalists. Their governments collect taxes to finance productive expenditure and income redistribution. The share of income redistributed defines the size of the welfare state. Although both groups benefit from an abolition of the welfare state in the long run, the optimal fiscal policy in autarky can be characterized by maintaining a large welfare state since transfer cuts would induce transitional losses. Starting in such a position of policy inertia free trade and capital mobility is introduced. Fiscal policy competition leads to a reduction of tax rates and a relative increase of productive expenditure. If both countries coordinate their fiscal policy the reduction of taxes and income transfers is less pronounced. Quantitative effects of increasing globalization are assessed in a calibrated model for an average Europe G-4 country and the United States.     

全球化视角下的国际投机资本流动风险预警

全球金融危机使我们面临着复杂的经济环境,大规模的国际投机资本的流入增加了国内市场和经济发展的不稳定因素。通过对国外四个经典的金融风险预警模型进行梳理,并应用一种改进的KLR分析法对我国2005~2008年国际投机资本的金融风险进行预警分析,表明我国在这四年间宏观经济均处于警戒状态,国际投机资本并没有对我国的宏观经济产生巨大的影响。     

环境税制比较研究及其对中国的借鉴

环境税制的完善有助于环境友好型、资源节约型社会的形成。作为一项重要的经济法律制度,环境税制的国外理论和经验值得我们学习和借鉴。因此,追溯环境税制的理论基础和演变历程,分析国际环境税制的设计方法,总结国际环境税制的设计经验,可以给我国环境税制的设计提供原则、目标、实施路径的参考。     

全球金融危机处置中的中国策略

全球金融危机是美国国内经济的失衡和特里芬困境作用的必然结果,反映了全球化对国际统一货币的需求与主权国家货币行使世界货币职能矛盾的不可调和性.因此,金融危机是美元滥发与美国国内经济承受力之间矛盾被迫调整的结果,因而危机爆发具有必然性.然而美国继续使用透支信用,发行国债,向市场注入流动性来治理危机,这无疑是饮鸠止渴.从这个角度看,国际金融体系的重构将不以美国意志为转移,中国必须要利用这场金融危机所造成的国际金融与经济秩序调整的契机,提高自身在国际金融中的地位及话语权.     

Performance Evaluation and Corporate Income Taxes in a Sequential Delegation Setting

We consider a setting where a firm delegates an investment decision and, subsequently, a sales decision to a privately informed manager. For both decisions corporate income taxes have real effects. We show that compensating the manager based on pre-tax residual income can ensure after-tax NPV-maximization (goal congruence) for each decision problem in isolation. However, this metric fails if both decisions are nontrivial, since it requires asset-specific hurdle rates and hence precludes asset aggregation. After-tax residual income metrics (e.g., EVA) allow the firm to consistently apply its after-tax cost of capital as the hurdle rate to its aggregate asset base. We show that existing tax depreciation schedules may explain why firms in practice use more accelerated depreciation schedules than those suggested by previous studies. Our findings also rationalize the widespread use of dirty surplus accounting for windfall gains and losses for managerial retention purposes.     

A portfolio based theory of excessive foreign borrowing and capital control in a small open economy

We develop a simple model of portfolio choice in a mean variance framework to address the issue of international borrowing and financial crisis. Instead of adverse selection or moral hazard of lending and borrowing activities we emphasise the role of exchange rate movement. Syndicated borrowing by way of internalising the aggregate effect tends to restrict excessive borrowing from external source. However, this may undermine the welfare consequences by further aggravating the extent of risk undertaken in the process. There is a built-in externality in the model that leads to over exposure to foreign currency debt and readily calls for intervention by the government. Government intervention by way of a tax on foreign borrowing may help restrain the amount of external debt and implement the first best.     

股市流动性、市场关注度与创业板上市公司转板选择——兼论我国多层次资本市场建设

本文从创业板上市公司的角度出发,通过理论模型探讨了流动性、市场关注度对其转板选择的影响。在此基础上,采用统计比较方法从全市场和配对样本两个方面分析我国创业板市场与主板市场在流动性、市场关注度和新股发行市盈率方面的异同。研究发现,我国创业板上市公司可能无法通过转板至主板上市这一途径来增强其股票的流动性和市场关注度。基于以上研究结论,有针对性地提出了有关我国建设多层次资本市场体系的政策建议。     

Linear beta pricing with inefficient benchmarks in a given factor structure*

ABSTRACT

We show the equivalence between the zero-beta version of a multi-factor arbitrage pricing model and a linear pricing model utilizing undiversified inefficient benchmarks in a given factor structure. The resulting linear model is a two-beta model, with one beta related to the inefficient benchmark and another adjusting for its inefficiency. This linear model shows that there are only two distinctive and computable sources of risk, affecting security expected returns, despite the existence of several risk factors. In a short empirical example we demonstrate that the model can be employed to provide guidance and allow researchers to test for the validity of their selection of the underlying risk factors driving variations in security returns.     

Intergenerational and International Welfare Leakages of a Product Subsidy in a Small Open Economy

A dynamic overlapping-generations model of a small open economy with monopolistic competition in the goods market is constructed. Lump-sum tax-financed product subsidization boosts output and employment both in the impact period and in the new steady state. The real exchange rate depreciates in the long run but the impact effect is ambiguous. If the labour supply effect is weak and the economy is not very open, the exchange rate appreciates at impact. The policy has important intergenerational distribution effects. Old existing generations gain more than younger existing generations as well as future generations. The bond policy which neutralizes the intergenerational inequities allows the computation of an optimal product subsidy which depends positively on the extent of the domestic scale economies and negatively on the degree of openness of the economy.     

Profile of earners and remittances in Mexico: a relative deprivation approach

This research analyzes the individual qualities and microeconomic profiles from mexican workers in Mexico, which under relative deprivation conditions, take the choice to leave the country as an alternative way to improve their life expectations. It is found that mexican assistance programs encompass heterogeneous results and thus, are not a generalized signal of improvement for the families. Using a Multinomial Logit specification we found that public assistance programs reinforce relative deprivation of non-migrants families on those who have relatives who migrated. Human capital attributes present a direct relation with the process of migration not only for traditional exporting labor regions, but also for the north-border of the country. The south supports the relative deprivation hypothesis meanwhile, is not the case for the USA-mexican border States.     

Crafting Compromises in a Strategising Process: A Case Study of an International Development Organisation

This paper focuses on how organisational members in non‐governmental organisations (NGO) can develop credible and legitimate strategic plans and positions out of diverse and conflicting perspectives. Using empirical data drawn from a strategic planning episode in an international development NGO, the study examines the process of ‘crafting compromises’ whereby organisational members make mutual adjustments and concessions to reach consensus on new strategic plans and positions. The analysis shows that two processes facilitate crafting compromises in strategising; being adaptive and responsive to critique as strategic positions are developed, and an ability to forge relevant connections between new strategic proposals and past strategic positions.     

Pollution Externalities in a Model of Endogenous Fertility and Growth

An endogenous growth model with human capital formation, pollution caused by production of consumption goods, and endogenous fertility decisions made by altruistic agents with infinite horizons is presented. Consequences for optimal policy of modelling fertility as an explicit decision variable are examined. Because ordinary lump-sum transfers to individuals are no longer neutral, either revenue from a pollution tax must be redistributed to dynasties (working as an implicit tax on child births), or lump-sum transfers must be supplemented with an explicit fertility tax. Alternatively, the government can avoid distortions of the fertility decisions by maintaining an appropriate public debt. When abatement is highly productive, it can be optimal to subsidize fertility in order to increase total production.     

Fiscal Policy in a Currency Union at the Zero Lower Bound

This paper constructs a two‐country core–periphery New Keynesian model of a currency union to address the interaction between the objectives of regionally directed fiscal policy constrained by a single currency and the aggregate use of fiscal policy in face of the zero lower bound (ZLB) on policy interest rates. We identify an optimal path of aggregate and relative fiscal policy responses to a negative region‐specific demand shock. Our results show that (i) in a monetary union, the optimal policy response to an asymmetric reduction in demand concentrated in the periphery always entails a relative shift of fiscal expenditure toward the worse‐affected regions, (ii) though no aggregate fiscal response is required outside the ZLB, and (iii) optimal union‐wide fiscal policy is expansionary at the ZLB. Therefore, optimal policy always entails an expansion in the periphery at the ZLB, but the optimal fiscal response in the core regions can be either expansionary or contractionary depending on the parameters of the model. However, (iv) fiscal expansion in the core is warranted if the periphery cannot implement an expansion due to constraints on public spending.     

世界经济失衡背景中的人民币汇率制度改革

人民币升值的真正原因在于,从对外经济往来层面上来看,美国在贸易逆差扩大背景下对中国愈演愈烈的人民币升值的"攻势";从国内宏观经济层面来看,"外汇占款"带来流动性过剩压力。宏观经济的客观因素以及中国政府的主观因素决定了人民币汇率升值过程只能是渐进的,而不是一步到位的,尽管渐进策略会进一步强化人民币升值的预期。对不同经济主体而言,人民币升值的利益效应不同,因此很难简单概括其总体效应。近期来看,人民币汇率升幅已经达到了一定的水平,与人民币升值相关的越来越强烈的负面效应以及金融突发事件效应,应该引起政府的密切关注。     

Public perception and responses to environmental pollution and health risks: evaluation and implication from a national survey in China

Concerns have been raised among policy-makers, researchers and Chinese citizens regarding the widespread environmental degradation that has occurred in China in recent decades. Years of environmental education and media coverage on pollution harm and health risks have not only provided information about pollution to the public, but have also strengthened people’s concerns. However, an ‘intense focus’ on pollution is far from sufficient; at present, it is necessary to assess to what extent the public can identify specific environmental conditions and whether they are ready to cope with potential health risks from pollution. Through face-to-face surveys on trains and at railway stations nationwide, we investigated public experiences of environmental pollution accidents, perceptions of local environmental risks (focused on air and water quality) and responses to local environmental conditions. By comparing public perceptions with official environmental monitoring data-sets, we concluded that the accuracy of perceptions related to four environmental factors ranged from 40 to 60% at the individual scale. Furthermore, the accuracies increased approximately 2–10% at the county scale and 10–30% at the city scale, highlighting the possible benefits of collective intelligence in helping the public to identify existing environment conditions more accurately. Additionally, despite great concerns about pollution and health, public attitudes toward coping with the dangers of pollution and health risks were found to be indifferent. Our study revealed factors at the individual, social and governmental levels that led to low levels of perception accuracy and response scores. Thereout, we stressed potential pathways to improve the accuracy of public perception and the positivity of responses. The survey results indicate that there is a long way to go before the public is well prepared to cope with the risks of pollution; as a consequence, it is necessary to improve both personal environmental awareness as well as governmental, social and commercial responses to pollution events.     

Does the Measurement of Property and Structural Characteristics Affect Estimated Implicit Prices for Environmental Amenities in a Hedonic Model?

Hedonic models are commonly used to estimate marginal willingness to pay for environmental amenities. These studies utilize variables that are assumed to be measured without error (such as the square footage of the lot or the number of bedrooms) and proxy variables (such as neighborhood or school quality). Lot and structural characteristics may in fact be measured with error. Potential sources of error include inaccurate measures and inconsistent updating. We investigate the effect of using tax-assessor data versus survey data from purchasers to estimate the implicit price of an environmental amenity, lake-water clarity. Convergent validity of the implicit price for water clarity is established if the town and survey data provide statistically indistinguishable estimates of implicit prices for this amenity. Overall, the town-office and survey data on property characteristics were not statistically different in three of the four market groupings examined, which suggests that the traditional municipal sources of these data may not contain substantial measurement error. Furthermore, convergent validity is satisfied in all four market areas. However, differences in computed implicit prices of clarity in two of the market areas are large enough that policy decisions for environmental quality could be affected by the source of the lot and structural data.     

Communities in a world of open systems

In the past, communities tended to be closed systems with relatively clear boundaries, stable memberships, and few linkages to other communities. We are now entering into an ‘age of open systems.' Mobility creates new communities and kinds of communities. The impacts of mobility are far less than those of information and communications technology. Cyberspace has become a new kind of social terrain, crowded with ‘virtual communities.' Television and radio create communities of people thinking and talking about the same things. Both mobility and the growth of communications networks reduce the predominance of geography as a force in shaping community. Many communities are much more fluid, and some are placeless. There are many different kinds of social groups and networks that people describe with the word ‘community.' Most people are multi-community individuals, with many memberships, and many kinds of memberships. Although the world's major religions still have some historic identification with specific regions, those geographic attachments are no longer as clear as they once were, and these religions are tending to become open systems. Some people prefer relatively closed social systems, while others flourish in freer environments. Choice is one of the most powerful forces in the lives of people being exposed to the forces of globalization. Community will continue to be a profound human need but will be redefined, perhaps many times over.