美国国际收支结构的特征、趋势分析及对中国的启示

美国日益增长的经常项目赤字和庞大的净对外债务已经成为影响世界经济的一个不确定因素。长期来看,以亚洲国家为外围主体为美国经常项目赤字融资这一复活的布雷顿森林体系难以长久存在,因而以“逆差+顺差”为特点的美国国际收支结构是很难持续的,美国的经常项目很可能会经历一次趋向平衡的调整过程。同时指出了中国对美国经常项目调整可能给中国经济发展带来冲击的应对措施。     

美国巨额经常项目赤字及其持续性探析

通过分析美国巨额经常项目赤字的构成,探讨了美国经常项目赤字是否将持续的问题。从某一时点上看,如果没有相关的外国资本流入以及负的国际投资净额导致消费、投资、利率和汇率等经济变量的变化,美国经常项目赤字仍将持续。一旦美国经常项目出现持续性巨额赤字,无论美国经济还是世界经济都将面临不可预期的风险。     

美国经常项目赤字的原因分析

20世纪90年代以来,美国经常项目赤字不断膨胀,本文从以下两个角度分析了美国经常项目赤字原因:一是美国较低储蓄水平;二是全球储蓄过剩。     

美国经常项目赤字的可持续性研究

近年来,美国巨额经常项目赤字和美元持续贬值引起了经济学界的强烈关注,一些经济学家发出了美元和国际货币体系崩溃的警告。在现行国际货币体系即以资产为本位的泛布雷顿森林体系下,中心国家美国和外围亚洲国家形成了双赢的局面。该体系与布雷顿森林体系相比具有更大的安全性和稳定性,美国能够承受更大规模的经常项目赤字,并由此获得了更为灵活的政策操作空间。在某种程度上,美国巨额经常项目赤字是其雄厚的金融和经济实力的体现。     

新型国际分工对全球失衡可持续性的影响

随着全球失衡的不断加剧，经常项目的可持续性逐渐受到更多人的关注。因为经常项目的调整、尤其是赤字的调整往往伴随着货币贬值、经济下滑等代价，人们认为目前的失衡局面背后隐藏着巨大的风险。本文试图通过经验研究寻找近年来经常项目可持续性的规律和特点。经常项目赤字逆转较为平均地分布在1970年至今。从probit模型回归结果看，除了经常项目余额、经济增长等常见影响因素外，影响国际产业分工的金融与制造业的比较优势也是预测经常项目可持续性的重要因素。一国金融产业相对于制造业的比较优势越大，该国发生经常项目赤字逆转的可能性就越小．说明虽然金融业的发达让一国更容易背负赤字，但是这种优势也让该国有一定不急于调整经常项目赤字的“特权”，这也是造成经常项目失衡长时间存在的重要原因。     

储蓄不足--美国经常帐户赤字的根源

从宏观经济层面看,经常账户赤字是资本账户顺差的另一种表现。美国经常账户赤字持续扩大,根源在于美国向消费型社会蜕变的进程加快,导致国内储蓄日益不足,从而不得不从国外输入巨额资本,以弥补国内储蓄与国内总投资之间的缺口。美国长期维持巨额经常账户赤字,充分展现了美国资本主义     

服务贸易对美国经常账户赤字的影响——基于豪斯克-麦奇收入不对称效应的验证

本文尝试构建一个基于H-M效应的模型,分析H-M效应对美国经常账户赤字变化的影响机制。并就该模型对美国经常账户赤字变化的解释能力进行验证,结果表明H-M效应对美国经常账户赤字的变化趋势具有较好的解释力。在此基础上,本文应用1986-2005年的数据分别估算了美国商品和服务品进出口收入弹性系数。估算结果显示,与商品进出口收入弹性系数相反,美国服务出口的收入弹性系数大于进口的收入弹性系数。为了探讨服务贸易对美国经常账户赤字的影响,应用基于H-M效应的模型分析美国服务贸易的发展对其经常账户赤字变化的影响。     

IMF指出世界经济面临多种风险

<正> 国际货币基金组织4月21日发表的《世界经济展望》报告在预测今明两年经济将快速增长的同时,也指出了世界经济持续增长面临的几个主要风险。报告说,美国的巨额经常项目赤字和财政赤字仍然是一个严重问题。由于国内需求继续快速增加,美国经常项目赤字占国内生产总值的比例预计到2009年也只能降到4%。其次,全球利率水平目前非常低,提高利率是必然的,但利率上升的时机和速度如把握不当可能导致     

2005年展望 全球经济

主题: 2005年世界经济展望。意义: 2004年,美国的经常项目赤字达到GDP的6％, 以经合组织国家的历史经验看,一国的对外赤字如此之高,其汇率很难保持稳定。美元贬值或许有助于解决这个难题,其过程很可能是和缓的。     

2005年展望全球经济

主题：2005年世界经济展望。意义：2004年，美国的经常项目赤字达到GDP的6％，以经合组织国家的历史经验看，一国的对外赤字如此之高，其汇率很难保持稳定。美元贬值或许有助于解决这个难题，其过程很可能是和缓的。     

大国政府间的汇率博弈——中美巨额贸易差额下的人民币汇率问题研究

从中美两国博弈的角度来看,美国会迫使人民币升值来解决两国间长期存在的巨额贸易差额。在本文的研究中,美国效用期望值最大时的最优升值率介于0和茁之间,中国的最优选择是允许人民币升值,但最优升值率为茁/2。在人民币升值后,如果美国仍进行报复,中国的最优选择是进行反报复,并可通过合理选择报复对象以实现最优。     

全球金融危机爆发的原因及其对中国经济的影响

美国次贷危机引发了肆掠全球的金融危机,其直接原因是美国国内的产业、金融政策错误,以及华尔街的贪婪与金融监管失误,而深层次原因是全球经济失衡与技术创新的周期性。本文应用时间序列模型验证了美国经济衰退对中国对美出口的显著影响,使用GTAP模型估算了全球经济衰退对中国经济的影响,结果显示:纺织、石化、电子等中国主要出口行业产出增长将进一步大幅下降。建议我国通过调整收入分配结构、扶持民营企业发展以扩大内需,并走创新发展道路,以应对危机下世界经济衰退的挑战。     

United States Trade in Consumer Products

The United States has experienced a large trade deficit in consumer products. This paper argues that the deficit is due in part to the institutional and behavioral frameworks in which consumer products are marketed. The existence of an effective mass distribution system, a large market relative to promotion expenditures and the change-orientation of the consumer can influence greatly the ability of nations to expand markets and stimulate sales of consumer products. These factors prevalent in the American economy have attracted imports. In contrast, their absence in the economies of our trading partners has limited our access to foreign markets. Policy implications of this situation and areas for further research are identified and discussed.     

Strike Pay and Employers' Strike Insurance

The consequences of strike pay for employees and of an employers' strike insurance fund are analysed in a two‐period screening model of labour disputes with private information of the firm. It is shown that the employers' strike fund reduces uncertainty and hence lowers strike activity. If the union's strike pay fund can incur a deficit during disputes, strike pay will raise strike activity. If strike pay and an employers' insurance are combined, strikes may become less probable.     

The US dollar- scenario of a world currency

The exchange rate of the US dollar fell sharply last year. What part was played by the adverse “fundamentals” of the US economy, the large current account deficit, the country’s heavy foreign indebtedness and the substantial budget deficit? How will the dollar behave in future?     

中美贸易逆差与人民币升值的悖论研究

根据经典汇率理论解释,随着人民币不断升值,中美贸易逆差会逐步缩减,而中美贸易实践却不是这样。本文利用2005-2010年月度数据对中美贸易逆差和人民币升值的关系进行实证分析,得出人民币汇率是中美贸易逆差的一个次要的影响因素,不是主要原因。产生中美贸易逆差与人民币升值之间悖论的主要原因在于美国对中国长期的出口限制,影响了美国企业贸易比较优势的发挥,新国际分工体系下形成的中国加工贸易方式是另一个次要因素。     

Foreign trade potential,small enterprise development and job creation in developing countries

Increasing American competitiveness in the international economy requires expanding trade with emerging markets, especially in developing countries of Asia, Latin America and Africa. Historically, as developing countries' economies have grown, the capacity for exporting and importing have both expanded. In the future, the capacity for trade in developing countries will depend increasingly on their ability to create sufficient numbers of jobs to absorb their rapidly growing labor forces.Unlike Western countries, most developing economies have a small percentage of their labor forces in large-scale manufacturing and a large share engaged in small-scale and informal sector enterprises. Small-scale enterprises have been the primary sources of labor absorption in cities in developing countries and will continue to play a crucial role in the future. Experience has shown that policies for improving the capacity of small-scale enterprises to generate jobs have had only mixed results in developing countries. The challenge facing governments and the private sector in the future include: (1) creating an economic environment conducive to small-enterprise development; (2) removing regulatory and administrative obstacles to small-enterprise expansion; (3) tailoring small-enterprise promotion programs to local conditions and needs; (4) providing capital and credit for small-business owners; (5) involving the private sector in small-enterprise development programs; and (6) providing technical assistance, training and educational programs through public-private partnerships.     

The Foreign Exchange Origins of Japan's Economic Slump and Low Interest Liquidity Trap

Japan's macroeconomic problem has yet to be properly diagnosed. Throughout the 1990s, policy makers could not decide on the proper macro economic measures to combat the country's severe economic slump. We propose a unified explanation, with deep historical roots, of why aggregate private demand failed to recover after Japan's stock and real estate bubbles burst in 1991 and deflationary pressure continues. The problem is not purely ‘made in Japan’. It arises from Japan's unbalanced mercantile relationship with the United States. Starting in the early 1970s, numerous trade disputes between the two countries created tensions that were (temporarily) resolved by the yen going ever higher against the dollar up to 1995. In the last two decades, this persistent pressure for the yen to rise was further aggravated by Japan's large current‐account (saving) surpluses as the counterpart of America's large current account (saving) deficits. The legacy is the expectation that trade and financial tensions will recur so that the yen will be higher 10, 20, or 30 years from now –with Japan's (wholesale) price level forced correspondingly lower and nominal interest rates on yen assets remaining more than four percentage points less than those on dollar assets. This fear of yen appreciation, whose timing is erratic and unpredictable, now inhibits private domestic investment by both Japanese firms and households. Our theory also explains why, in the late 1990s, nominal interest rates on short‐term yen assets were compressed toward zero so as to destroy the normal profit margins of the banking system. In this liquidity trap, the Bank of Japan –whose monetary policy has been quite ‘expansionary’–is powerless to stimulate the flagging economy. To spring the liquidity trap, eliminate deflationary pressure, and restore macro economic balance in Japan, the American and Japanese governments must act jointly to quash the expectation that the yen will be higher in the future than it is today.     

Offering value and capturing surplus: A strategy for private label sales in a new customer loyalty building scenario

The competition between private label brand and national brands in the diaper category is investigated from the view of the private label brand manager. In this category, new customers routinely enter the category buying entry-level diaper sizes (for infants) and then progress to buy larger diaper sizes over time (as their child grows older). Thus, consumer comparisons between the private label brand and national brands are focused on single diaper sizes during any single purchase scenario. Because private label brands are known to suffer from low quality perceptions that often understate the true quality levels of private label brands, this paper advances a pricing strategy to optimize private label performance in the category. The private label brand should price significantly low for small diaper sizes (maintaining a sizeable price gap from national brand competitors). Then, in most cases, the private label brand should shrink the size of this price gap for large diaper size offerings. This strategy will successfully offer initial value to new customers, build private label brand quality perceptions and loyalty, and then capitalize on these gains through higher dollar sales in the late stages of the customer relationship. The price gap shrinking strategy is found to be generally effective, but high national brand competition and too high of an initial price gap diminish the effectiveness of the strategy.     

Kent H. Hughes. Building the Next American Century: The Past and Future of American Economic Competitiveness. Washington, D.C.: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 2005. xxiii + 542 pp. ISBN 0-8018-8204-4, $55.00 (cloth); 0-8018-8203-6, $24.95 (paper).

It is paradoxical that the United States, a nation so recentlytriumphant in the Cold War, should be so gripped by anxietyabout its economic future. A burgeoning national debt and ayawning current account deficit, among other pressures, obligeAmericans to question how—and if—the next one hundredyears will bring another "American Century." Into this debatesteps longtime Washington insider Kent H. Hughes, who sets outwith the ambitious agenda of considering "America’s economicfuture and its economic past" while seeking to define a