浙江省旅游服务贸易国际竞争力及影响因素的实证分析

本文首先运用国际竞争力测度指标,比较分析了浙江与中国其他6个主要省市的旅游服务贸易竞争力。其次采用多元线性回归分析方法,对浙江旅游服务贸易国际竞争力的主要影响因素进行了研究,结果表明:国际旅行社的数量、旅游交通状况对旅游外汇收入有正向的影响,而且后者的影响力明显高于前者;旅游人力资本状况对旅游外汇收入的影响不显著;人民币汇率上升则对旅游外汇收入有抑制作用。在此基础上,本文提出加快提升浙江旅游服务贸易国际竞争力的对策建议。     

中国旅游服务出口国际竞争力探析

旅游服务贸易国际竞争力强弱是一国发展旅游服务贸易的基础,现有的竞争力评价指标体系难以全面深刻反映旅游服务贸易实际竞争力。本文构建了旅游服务出口国际竞争力的评价指标体系及其评价方法,在此基础上对中国旅游服务出口的国际竞争力进行了评价和国际比较,提出了进一步提高中国旅游服务出口国际竞争力的政策建议。     

人民币汇率对外贸出口影响的实证研究——以绍兴外贸为例

长期以来,很多国家都不遗余力的利用本国汇率低估或其他贸易保护手段来追求国际收支的平衡甚至盈余,导致彼此之间为争夺世界市场份额而贸易摩擦不断。可见汇率对一国对外贸易的平衡与国内经济活动的波动有着深刻的影响。人民币汇率的变动到底怎样影响对外贸易?目前国内已有较多的文献从贸易平衡的角度研究汇率与外贸变化的关系,但汇率对地区经济出口的影响较少涉及。本文在讨论有关汇率与出口理论的基础上,建立了以人民币汇率和绍兴出口额为变量的回归模型,得出结论,汇率的变动对绍兴外贸出口影响极小,主要的影响因素包括绍兴的产业结构与出口产品本身的竞争力。在此基础上,提出绍兴今后外贸发展的相关对策与意见。     

我国旅游服务贸易与经济增长的实证分析

改革开放以来，我国旅游服务贸易与世界的交流也越来越多。本文选取我国1985-2006年旅游服务贸易的进口、出口和GDP数据，根据协整理论，分别分析了GDP和旅游服务贸易的进口、GDP和旅游服务贸易的出口之间的关系。     

汇率传递异质性对中美贸易失衡的解释

文章利用VAR模型考察2000~2015年期间中美货币政策对双边贸易的非对称传导事实,从理论上分析中美贸易失衡调整的汇率传递因素,并根据贸易价格汇率传递模型,估计了中美两国出口和进口价格方程,实证检验了中美两国进出口汇率传递的异质性:美国从中国进口的汇率弹性较低,对中国出口的汇率弹性较高,而中国从美国进口的汇率弹性较高,对美国出口的汇率弹性较低,贸易定价模式不同以及汇率制度、通胀率、企业经营效率及商品品质等方面的差异是中美汇率传递异质的主要影响因素。因此,美国扩张性货币政策对中美贸易余额调整的作用非常有限,中美贸易差额不在于人民币汇率的高低,而在于中美国际分工地位和经济结构差异。同时,中国应稳步推进人民币汇率形成机制改革,改善企业经营环境,提高出口商品质量,争取对外贸易定价权。     

汇率变动对中国旅游出口收入影响的实证分析

中国有着极其丰富的旅游资源,外国游客来华旅游的人数近几年在不断地增长,旅游服务贸易也是今后我国发展的重要项目之一。以1999—2012年间的数据为基础,采用面板数据模型研究汇率对中国旅游出口收入的影响,所取自变量为我国旅游人数较多的6个国家的人均GDP、对应货币对人民币的汇率和该6国首都距离北京的直线距离。建立了两个模型,第一个模型只以汇率为自变量,第二个模型的自变量除了汇率外还增加了上面所提到的另外两个变量,根据两个模型最终结果的对比,人民币的升值会使得外国来华旅游人数的减少,根据结果给出了建议。     

贸易模式与不完全汇率传递——基于扩展的古诺模型的解释

本文采用一个扩展的古诺模型分析证明了贸易模式与不完全汇率传递的关系。首先,本文从破解人民币升值背景下中国贸易规模和贸易顺差仍持续增长这一谜题出发,分析了中国贸易模式和出口结构特征,描述了中国在国际生产价值链上的角色,阐述了垂直型产业内模式和中间产品占比较大的贸易结构对人民币汇率传递水平的影响。其次,对Dornbusch采用的古诺模型进行拓展,引入贸易模式变量,构建了一个局部均衡的理论模型。模型分析表明,产业市场结构、本国供应商的市场地位和贸易模式是影响出口价格的汇率传递水平的重要因素。最后,根据模型分析结论,提出相应的政策建议。     

人民币实际有效汇率波动对我国出口的直接影响

影响我国出口的因素包括国际市场需求、国内市场需求、国内劳动力成本、原材料成本、规模经济优势和人民币汇率等多方面因素,人民币汇率只是影响因素之一。人民币汇率波动通过改变贸易条件对我国出口产生直接影响,对初级产品和资本品等出口数量价格弹性较低的产品,人民币实际有效汇率贬值对出口价值增速的影响较低,     

中国贸易收支的汇率弹性与收入弹性

本文运用单位根检验和协整方法估算了中国的贸易收支方程、出口需求方程和进口需求方程,计量了中国贸易收支的汇率弹性与收入弹性、进出口需求的汇率弹性与收入弹性。同时还在中国贸易收支VAR模型的基础上研究了汇率、国内实际收入以及外国实际收入冲击对中国贸易收支的影响程度。检验结论认为,人民币汇率弹性较低,人民币汇率变动对中国贸易收支变动的影响很小,这与中国的贸易大国地位不相适应,汇率政策理应成为中国调节外部经济的重要工具,现阶段的人民币汇率形成机制必须改革。     

人民币汇率变动对中国贸易价格的影响研究

文章基于汇率传递的视角,详细考察了中国贸易价格的汇率传递问题,通过构建贸易价格指数和汇率指数,分析了中国总体、分类商品、分贸易伙伴的汇率传递弹性及其对称性。从总体上看,中国贸易价格的汇率传递弹性具有不完全传递的特征,出口和进口的价格汇率传递弹性仅约为20%,且两者变化均与人民币汇率变动密切相关。从分类商品上看,各类商品的汇率传递弹性体现出明显的异质性,其中,矿产品和化工产品的出口汇率传递弹性较大,动植物和金属产品的进口汇率传递弹性较高。人民币汇率变动方向和幅度对汇率传递的影响基本存在对称性,人民币汇率制度改革也并未明显影响汇率传递的程度。从分国别上看,以美国和韩国为例,中国与前者贸易价格的汇率传递弹性明显较大,是与后者的2.5~3倍左右。     

Exchange market pressure, trade, sovereign credit ratings, and U.S. exports in banking services

As a leader in providing banking services in the global market, it is important to understand the variables that influence U.S. exports in banking services. This paper examines the influence that trade, sovereign credit ratings, and exchange market pressure have on U.S. exports of banking services. The empirical evidence indicates that higher trade activity and a higher sovereign credit rating reduce U.S. exports of banking services. The results also suggest that exchange market pressure positively affects U.S. exports of banking services. Tests for individual and random effects across units suggest most of the variation in the estimators is within units.     

外商直接投资对我国服务贸易的影响研究——基于1982～2010年时间序列数据的实证分析

本文基于向量自回归(VAR)模型,利用我国1982～2010年度的经济数据,对我国外商直接投资对我国服务贸易的影响进行实证分析,结果表明:外商直接投资与我国服务贸易进口、出口之间存在协整关系;服务贸易进口与FDI存在双向的因果关系。无论从长期或短期来看,外商直接投资对我国服务贸易进出口的效应均为正。基于此,我国应制定相关吸引外资的政策,重视服务贸易人才培养,并促进我国货物贸易出口与服务贸易出口协调发展,进而发挥货物贸易出口对服务贸易出口的带动作用。     

新疆发展国际旅游服务贸易的思考

新疆发展国际旅游服务贸易可以充分发挥其资源优势,促进新疆产业结构升级,促进新疆经济资源的优化配置,因而应大力推进。但当前新疆发展国际旅游服务贸易存在的问题亦不容忽视,可通过加快研究和制定旅游服务贸易政策,改善旅游基础设施,优化旅游产业结构,提高旅游行业素质来提升新疆旅游服务贸易竞争力。     

Trading firms in the services sectors: comparable evidence from four EU countries

We establish a set of stylised facts for trade and trading firms in five market services sectors using comparable firm- and activity-level data from four EU countries. Our analysis shows that exports account for much lower shares of overall sales in the services sectors than in manufacturing. This is because fewer firms are engaged in trade in the services sectors and also because within particular sectors firms trade a lower share of their sales on average. Services producers trade mostly goods, but in terms of value, trade in services is much more important to them than to manufacturers. Larger and more productive firms are more likely to be two-way traders and to engage in both goods and services trade. Trade by services firms is somewhat less dominated by firms that both export and import than trade by manufacturing firms. Few firms export many services or to many countries. The value of services exports is increasing in the number of markets served but not necessarily in the number of services traded.     

人民币升值压力下存在J曲线效应吗

汇率有效调整可以改善贸易收支,但在短期内可能先出现进一步恶化贸易收支的J曲线效应,以往研究主要探讨人民币贬值的情况。本文发现,在人民币升值压力下,我国目前已经出现影响进出口贸易增速的近似J曲线效应,而贸易收支决定模型的实证结果表明汇率变动对贸易收支影响显著,人民币升值压力下的J曲线效应越来越明显。J曲线效应可能在短期内被其他诸多因素所掩盖,但在人民币升值压力不断增加的情况下值得警惕。     

中国服务贸易的出口潜力估计及国际比较——基于截面数据引力模型的实证分析

本文在借鉴文献引力模型基础上,结合中国与其主要的服务贸易伙伴国的实际情况建立截面数据模型,分别得到人均GDP、人口数量、国内产品市场管制、多边市场开放度、服务贸易结构和服务开放度等变量对服务出口贸易的影响大小,预测了中国对世界的服务贸易总额及结构的出口潜力,并与美、日、韩三国作了相应比较,结果表明：我国服务贸易总额较大,传统的服务部门（如旅游、建筑服务）已经充分发挥了潜力,而新兴的服务部门尤其是金融服务出口潜力的开发仍然有很大的空间,这种贸易的不足不是由于国家的管制措施引起的,而主要是由服务行业结构特征导致的.因而促进服务出口的措施应充分考虑行业发展的均衡性以及出口额与出口效益的关系。

Abstract：

Based on the gravity model and combination of the actual situation of China with that of its major trade partners,this article creates cross-sectional data model,and obtains that the impacts of GDP per capita,population,Domestic Product Market Regulation,multilateral market openness,service trade structure,services openness et al on services exports,forecasts China,s export potential of total and structure in services trade and compares it with that of the America,Japan and Korea,the result shows that：China,s total trade in services is over-performance, traditional service sectors such as tourism and construction services have reachedtheir potential,however,the emerging sectors especially the financial services still have a lot of space for export potential. This lack of exploiting the potential arises not from our country regula-tion,but from structural characteristics of the service sector. Therefore,the measures to promote services export should be fully considered the balanced development of the industries and the relationship between export values and effectiveness.     

Effect of exchange rate risk on intra-EC trade

Summary The smooth development of the EMS towrds an exchange rate system with fixed exchange rates among its member countries recently came to an abrupt (temporary) end. This raises the question whether exchange rate volatility is damaging to international trade. So far, it has remained an open empirical question whether exchange rate variability has the presumed negative effects. This article shows that the exports of five countries participating in the ERM have substantially benefited from the diminische exchange rate risk in the period from 1979 up to and including 1990. Contrary to former empirical studies, which deal with figures for total trade or total trade or total manufactures, the analysis here has been conducted for exports broken down by type of product. The study suggests that a more disaggregated analysis, with respect to products or sectors, might be a fruitful way of identifying the effects of exchange rate volatility on international trade.     

Foreign exchange regimes and industrial growth in Bangladesh

Foreign exchange regimes have been found to play an important role in implementing trade and industrial development strategies in many developing countries. The economic incentives provided to export-oriented and import-substituting industries can be measured by the real effective exchange rate (REER) for imports and exports. Such measures are developed for Bangladesh. The REER for exports and imports increased by around 72 and 82%, respectively, over the period 1973–1974 to 1976–1977. From 1976–1977 to 1984–1985, the REER for imports fell by nearly 10% while the REER for exports declined by 6%, although the exchange rate for non-traditional exports fared somewhat better. The REER for both imports and exports appears to have recovered somewhat since 1984–1985, but the paper concludes that while trade and industry policies in Bangladesh have become less “inward-looking,” the exchange regime is still biased in favor of import-substituting industrialization. Substantially stronger export incentives than exist at present would be necessary to remove this bias.     

China＇s Import-exchange Rate Linkage： Evidence from the China-bound Exports of Japan and Korea

This paper examines how the China-bound exports of Japan and Korea are related to exchange rates, motivated by the fact that processing trade makes up a large proportion of China＇s trade, and that Japan and Korea are the leading source countries for processing imports. Because processing imports are inputs for exports, the link between such imports and China＇s exchange rates are ambiguous. We estimate export functions that include China＇s RMB real effective exchauge rates （REER） along with bilateral real exchange rates （B RER） using Johausen ＇s cointegration method aud find that the RMB REER significantly affects Japanese and Korean exports to China, even more so than BRER in most cases examined. These two exchange rates appear in the export equations with opposite signs. Subsequently, we use the estimated model to illustrate the importance of accounting for a concurrent change in B RER when analyzing the effects of a hypothetical RMB revaluation on China＇s trade balances despite the apparently weak imports-B RER linkage.     

Looking into global value chains: influence of foreign services on export performance

Using data from the OECD Inter-Country Input–Output database, we explore the impact of foreign services value added content of exports on export performance, specifically on duration of trade. Our data show that the share of foreign services content in manufacturing exports grows from 1995 to 2011, in a way similar to foreign goods content, and in contrast to the decreasing share of domestic services. Moreover, the share of foreign services value added content is larger for developing and emerging countries than for advanced countries. Our econometric findings confirm that foreign services value added embodied in manufacturing exports contribute positively to more resilient exports relationships, a positive effect which occurs for the three groups of manufacturing industries (high, medium and low technology industries) and, for each group, it is more pronounced for developing and emerging economies.