Banking structure and financial stability: a comparison of Chinese and German banking systems

In the process of financial globalization and diversification, the issue of financial stability has become heated all over the world. This paper attempts to uncover the delicate relationship between banking structure and financial stability by comparing and analyzing the situation of the Chinese and German banking systems. This paper suggests that (i) the trade-off between competition and concentration in banking industry is a vital factor to maintain financial stability and (ii) concentration is not always a bad thing for financial stability, especially in banking systems with discontent bank performance.     

Information production, banking industry structure and credit allocation

We analyse credit allocation when limited-liable banks can engage in costly information production about borrowers. When perfectly diversified credit portfolios cannot be constructed, we show that credit allocation depends on bank capital and the number of banks that can operate in the same market. A concentrated banking industry, one where bank capital is held by few banks, is shown to lead to credit allocation closer to the social optimum. Moreover, in the absence of banking industry consolidation, we find that the removal of intra-state entry barriers reduces welfare and not all independent banking organizations that were viable in formerly protected markets remain so when markets are integrated.     

Free banking and the stability of early joint-stock banking

Proponents of free banking argue that systems adopting theirpolicies will be stable. In this paper, we present evidencesuggesting that, in general, early joint-stock banking systemsdid not adopt free banking, and those that did proved to beunstable. In particular, we demonstrate that those systems imposingregulations were generally stable. We rationalise the successof regulation as a pragmatic solution to the time-inconsistencyproblem arising from the peculiar nature of the banking firm.Notably, we find that the ‘golden age’ of free bankingstability can be attributed to restrictions on the organisationalform of the early banking firm.     

Economic reforms,efficiency and productivity in Chinese banking

This paper analyzes the impact of banking reforms on efficiency and total factor productivity (TFP) change in Chinese banking industry. Using an input distance function, we find that joint-equity banks are more efficient than wholly state-owned banks (WSOBs). Furthermore, both WSOBs and joint-equity banks are found to be operating slightly below their optimal size, suggesting potential advantages in expansion of their businesses. Overall, TFP growth was 4.4% per annum for the sample period 1993–2002. Joint-equity banks experienced much higher growth in TFP (5.5% per annum) compared to the WSOBs (1.4% per annum).      

Crowding-in and crowding-out effects of public investments in the Portuguese economy

This study analyses the effects of public and private investment on Portuguese GDP in the period 1960–2013. After a review of the literature based on works developed in the context of VAR analyses, an alternative econometric strategy is proposed. We opt for ADL models using the methodology of Krolzig-Hendry-Doornik. We estimate direct effects of public and private investments on themselves and also a system of simultaneous equations and calculate the multipliers of the exogenous variables, represented by the current external transfers, the short-run nominal interest rate and public debt ratio. Additionally, we tested a model with the first three equations of the system, using beyond those variables the real exchange rate as an exogenous variable. The results point to the existence of a complementarity between private investment and public investment rather than any idea of substitutability. We find that public debt has important negative effects on public and private investments and consequently on output. Public investment has positive effects on output and on private investment. The appreciation of the real exchange rate has an important and long-lasting negative effect upon output, confirming the presence of a mechanism associated with a Dutch-disease phenomenon in the Portuguese economy.     

Competition and risk in South East Asian commercial banking

This article investigates the effects of competition on bank risk taking behaviour in four South East Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam). Our main finding is that competition does not increase bank risk-taking behaviour and the results appear robust to different model specifications, estimation approaches and variable construction. We also find that concentration is inversely related to bank risk whereas regulatory restrictions positively influence bank risk-taking.     

Changes in the structure of earnings during the Polish transition

We document changes in the structure of earnings during the economic transition in Poland. We find that inequality in labor earnings increased substantially from 1988 to 1996. A common view is that the reallocation of workers from a public sector with a compressed wage distribution, to a private sector with much higher wage inequality, accounts for the bulk of increased earnings inequality during transition (see, e.g., the models of Aghion and Commander (1999) [Aghion, Philippe, Commander, Simon, 1999. On the dynamics of inequality in the transition. Economics of Transition 7, 275–2898.] and Commander and Tolstopiatenko (1998) [Commander, Simon, Tolstopiatenko, Andrei, 1998. The role of unemployment and restructuring in the transition. In: Commander, Simon (Ed.), Enterprise Restructuring and Unemployment in Models of Transition. The World Bank, Washington, pp. 169–192.]). However, our decomposition of the sources of the increase in inequality suggests that this compositional effect accounts for only 39% of the increase. Fully 52% of the increase is due to the increase in the variance of wages within sectors. That is, earnings inequality within both the private and public sectors grew substantially, and by similar amounts. This is consistent with prior work suggesting that even state-owned enterprises in Poland moved towards competitive wage setting as they restructured (see, e.g., Pinto et al. (1993) [Pinto, Brian, Belka, Marek, Krajewski, Stefan, 1993. Transforming state enterprises in Poland: evidence on adjustment by manufacturing firms. Brookings papers on Economic Activity, 213-70.] Commander and Dhar (1998) [Commander, Simon, Dhar, Sumana, 1998. Enterprises in the Polish transition. In Simon Commander (Ed.), Enterprise Restructuring and Unemployment in Models of Transition. The World Bank, Washington, pp. 109-142.]).A substantial part of the increase in earnings inequality was between group, due largely to increased education premiums. However, changes in inequality within education–experience–gender groups account for about 60 percent of the increase in overall earnings inequality. The increases in within-group inequality were very different across skill groups, with much larger increases for highly educated workers. These patterns hold in both the private and public sectors, although increases in education premiums were somewhat greater in the private sector.     

Screening, cross-border banking, and the allocation of credit

The author analyses competition among banks when banks can use creditworthiness tests that generate (imperfect) information about borrowers. When banks can strategically adjust the test characteristics by investing resources in the screening technology, he shows that credit markets are not easily contestable. An increase in the intensity of competition may have few effects on incumbents» conduct and overall market shares. Moreover, conditions are provided under which screening efforts are reduced by competition. In such situations the quality of the overall loan portfolio declines and the economy incurs higher aggregate risk due to the lower quality of banks» information production. The welfare gains from integrating fragmented loan markets can actually be negative.     

Branch banking, entry deterrence, and technology decisions

The paper sets up a theoretical model of banking firms to investigate the relationship between oligopolistic competition and technology structure by using the concept of decentralized operating decisions and centralized investment decisions. It concludes that the representative branch and the new entrant will choose the technology which is deviated from its cost-minimization level if neither of them acts as a quasi-competitive deposit demanders in the case of costless reversibility of capacity decision. In the case of capacity reversed not costlessly, the representative branch will choose the cost-minimizing technology level and the entrant's technology decision depends on its rival's conjectural variation.     

究竟是什么决定了一国银行业的发展

既有文献对银行业发展问题的研究,大多集中于微观层面,基于宏观层面和国家样本的分析相对不足。文章通过对全球范围内具有代表性的59个国家的实证分析,从银行业规模、效率和结构3个基本维度系统考察了决定不同国家银行业整体发展的相关因素。实证结果表明,对银行业整体规模产生显著影响的因素包括宏观经济稳定性、银行业务管制、政府的监管水平、金融开放程度以及社会信用水平;对银行业整体效率产生显著影响的因素包括宏观经济稳定性、良好的制度和管理、银行经营的规模效应、金融体系结构和监管要求;对银行业结构产生显著影响的因素包括银行业总体规模、银行业务管制、银行业开放程度以及银行腐败程度。     

Struggle for Survival in the Deregulated Market: Re-commodification and Informalisation of the Taxi Sector in Stockholm

This paper investigates the process of the informalization of the Swedish taxi industry, focusing on how this process has been manifested in Stockholm’s taxi market. This process has been analysed partly in its particular, local and sector-specific context, as it has been affected by the deregulation of the taxi sector, and partly in its relationship to the broader context of economic and political changes to which all contemporary capitalistic (welfare) states are exposed. This study raises questions about actual common sense discourses on the issue of irregularities in the taxi industry, and offers an alternative perspective both on the ongoing process of informalization, and on the role of various economic actors in that process, including the state.     

The determinants of banking efficiency in Hong Kong 2004-2014

The cost efficiency of the Hong Kong Banking sector over the period 2004–2014 is estimated by data envelopment window analysis. A second stage regression analysis finds that bank size and GDP growth are positively associated with efficiency, whereas revenue diversification and inflation are associated with lower efficiency. Stock exchange listing status is associated with lower efficiency but no clear relationship between measures of market structure and efficiency is found.     

Bank acquisitions of investment dealers: Canadian evidence and implications for Glass-Steagall reform

This paper analyzes the 1987 change in Canadian legislation permitting commercial banks to engage in investment banking, and makes comparisons to the US, where similar regulatory change is under way. The study focuses on the impact of such regulatory change on issue costs for corporations raising seasoned common equity. The findings indicate that although regulatory reform per se has had no effect on issue costs, costs for issues handled by a bank-owned underwriter are lower than those handled by an independent underwriter. The lower cost may be indicative of the availability of economies of scope between underwriting and commercial banking. First Version Received: Nov. 1998 / Final Version Received: March 2000     

Product diversification and bank risk: evidence from South Asian banking institutions

ABSTRACT

We investigate whether the product diversification activities of South Asian banking institutions have led to an increase or decrease in their solvency and profit risks. Using the data of five countries – India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka – for the period 2000–2016, we analyse the effect of both income and assets diversification activities on the Z-score and SDs of ROA (Return on Assets) and ROE Return on Equity). Among income diversification activities, securities trading income has a significant positive influence on bank risk while other categories have no influence. With respect to assets diversification, non-interest-bearing assets and loans given to government were found to have a significant positive influence on bank risk, while mortgage loans and non-classified loans have opposite influences. However, the impacts of securities trading income and loans given to the government are mainly confined to private sector banks and state-owned banks, respectively. We also uncover some country-specific diversification influences on the above relationships.     

Regulating the banking industry in transition economies: Exploring interactions between capital and reserve requirements

This paper examines the ‘prudential' role of reserve requirements in transition economies using a general-equilibrium banking model. The analysis stresses the role that reserve requirements may play in enforcing an adequate level of bank capitalization in a context in which it is difficult to assess the true value of bank assets. The paper also explores the interactions that exist between capital and reserve requirements and the effect of these regulations on the financial structure of banks and on the level of credit and interest rates.     

Path modelling to bankruptcy: causes and symptoms of the banking crisis

This article studies the bankruptcy of US banks since 2009. It first analyses the financial symptoms that precede bankruptcy, such as low profitability, insufficient revenue or low solvency ratios. It also goes into the causes of these symptoms. It poses several hypotheses on causes of failure, such as loan growth (some of them risky), specialization (in this case concentration in real estate) and the pursuit of a turnover-driven strategy neglecting margin. It presents and tests a structural equation modelling based on partial least squares path modelling (PLS-PM) and logistic regression. Results show that, 5 years before the crisis, failed banks had, compared to solvent banks, the following: higher loan growth, higher concentration on real estate loans, higher risk ratios, higher turnover, but lower margins. A relationship is found between symptoms and causes. Failed banks present a significant relationship between the percentage of real estate loans and risk. This relationship is negative in excellent banks, confirming that they allocated less real estate loans with a high quality. Nonfailed banks compensated increases in risk by strengthening their core capital.     

Improving competition in the non-tradable goods and labour markets: the Portuguese case

This study assesses the macroeconomic impacts of increasing competition in the non-tradable goods and labour markets in Portugal. We lean on evidence that the maintenance of low competition in these markets may have contributed to the recent poor performance of the Portuguese economy. The analysis is performed using PESSOA, a dynamic general equilibrium model for a small-open economy integrated in a monetary union, featuring non-Ricardian characteristics, a multi-sectoral production structure and a number of nominal and real rigidities. We conclude that measures aimed at increasing competition in the Portuguese non-tradable goods and labour markets could induce important international competitiveness gains and be valuable instruments in promoting necessary adjustments within the monetary union framework. However, in the short run, real interest rates are likely to increase, driving consumption and output temporarily downwards.