Curbing Agricultural Exceptionalism: The EU's Response to External Challenge

From 1948 to 1994, the agricultural sector was afforded special treatment in the GATT. We analyse the extent to which this agricultural exceptionalism was curbed as a result of the GATT Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, discuss why it was curbed and finally explore the implication of this for EU policy making. We argue that, in particular, two major changes in GATT institutions brought about restrictions on agricultural exceptionalism. First, the Uruguay Round was a ‘single undertaking’ in which progress on other dossiers was contingent upon an outcome on agriculture. The EU had keenly supported this new decision rule in the GATT. Within the EU this led to the MacSharry reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in 1992, paving the way for a trade agreement on agriculture within the GATT. Second, under the new quasi‐judicial dispute settlement procedure, countries are expected to bring their policies into conformity with WTO rules or face retaliatory trade sanctions. This has brought about a greater willingness on the part of the EU to submit its farm policy to WTO disciplines.     

The “Hottest Topic” of the budgetary review: Will the CAP survive?

Dalia Grybauskaite, while she was EU Budgetary Commissioner, said that the future financing of the CAP was the “hottest topic” of the budgetary review. The next months will be decisive as regards the financing of the CAP beyond 2013. Net beneficiaries of the CAP and agricultural interest groups would of course like to maintain the status quo while others would prefer to use the funds for other purposes. When, and how, is the common financing of the CAP justified?     

EU enlargement and governance of the Common Agricultural Policy

The requirements for the implementation, administration and control of the application of the current CAP are much higher than they were 15 years ago. The governance problems caused in the present EU by today’s higher regulation density are already severe. The new member countries are even less well equipped than the present ones to deal with these problems. What political consequences should be drawn?     

The Economic Impacts of Turkish Accession to the European Union

Half a century has passed and Turkey is no further toward achieving EU membership. Under the mandate of the Barcelona Declaration, EU–Turkish industrial tariffs will be abolished, whilst agro‐food protectionism remains largely intact. Consequently, the direct impacts from a hypothetical EU accession scenario will be concentrated in agro‐food sectors, whilst their share of economic output in Turkey implies ‘secondary’ macro impacts. To this end, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework is employed to quantitatively reassess full Turkish accession. Unlike previous CGE studies, agriculture, fishing and food sectors are disaggregated, whilst significant advancements to the ‘standard’ model code are incorporated to capture the vagaries of agricultural factor, input and product markets. In addition, a realistic ‘baseline’ scenario is constructed including ‘up to date’ trade and domestic agricultural policy reforms prior to Turkish entry to the EU. The results show that trade‐led gains in Turkey are moderated due to tariff liberalisation prior to EU entry, whilst Turkey receives significant budgetary transfers from the CAP budget, which are ‘mirrored’ as EU‐27 costs. With additional migration effects, Turkish (EU‐27) production possibilities fall (rise), whilst real income per capita rises (falls).     

Trade Policy in a Small Advanced Transition Economy: Trade Policy Review of Slovenia, 2002

The aim of this paper is a commentary to the first Trade Policy Review (TPR) of Slovenia and to shed more light on the background of the whole process of trade liberalisation and transition in Slovenia during the 1990s. The TPR praises Slovenia for its sound trade regime, which is in conformity to Slovenia's commitments to the multilateral trading system and detects only a few open issues. The paper puts these issues in a broader context of Slovenia's trade liberalisation after independence in 1991 and recent harmonisation with the EU in the pre‐accession negotiation process. Although there is much scope for improvements in Slovenia's trade policies and practices, one should note that most of the open issues raised would disappear anyway upon Slovenia's accession to the EU by 1 May, 2004, and by subsequent adoption of the CET and full implementation of the acquis communautaire. Some of the problems, such as strong government support to agriculture implemented by Slovenia due to harmonisation with the EU's CAP should, however, be challenged at the broader multilateral level in the framework of the Doha Development Agenda.     

Changes in Polish Farmers’ Attitudes Toward Risk After Poland’s Accession to the EU

This article presents the econometric estimation of the risk attitudes of Polish farmers. For that purpose, a model of production under risk has been employed. The research is based on data from the Polish Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN), from the years 2004–2010. For the Polish farming sector, risk-related considerations became increasingly important after Poland’s EU accession in 2004. After the accession, Polish agriculture was affected by market liberalization, which was somewhat mitigated by CAP support. To examine the risk aversion of Polish farmers, an estimation procedure based on Antle’s (1987) approach has been applied. This study suggests that, as was the case in other countries, risk aversion decreased following EU accession, that is, the Arrow-Pratt measure of absolute risk aversion based on producers specializing in field crops systematically decreased over the analyzed period.     

Would Renationalisation and Co-financing of the Common Agricultural Policy Be Justified?

During the past decades several attempts have been made to reform the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The article analyses the possible new directions of CAP implementation and financing of the CAP. It discusses whether renationalisation and co-financing of the CAP would be a beneficial approach to make the policy more efficient and to help restructuring not just the CAP expenditure but the whole EU budget. The author analyses the changes in light of the new regulatory frameworks to be implemented from 2023.

     

Impact of EU agricultural policy on developing countries: A Uganda case study

Despite substantial reforms, the European Union (EU)'s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is still criticised for its detrimental effects on developing countries. This paper provides updated evidence on the impact of the CAP on one developing country, Uganda. It goes beyond estimating macrolevel economic effects by analysing the impacts on poverty. The policy simulation results show that eliminating EU agricultural support would have marginal but nonetheless positive impacts on the Ugandan economy and its poverty indicators. From the perspective of the EU's commitment to policy coherence for development, this supports the view that further reducing EU agricultural support would be positive for development.     

Double talk—The political economy of eastward enlargement of the EU

There is an inherent ambiguity in the attitude of the EU towards eastern enlargement. On the one hand, since the Gothenburg Council of June 2001 the EU appears to be at last on the brink of a first round of eastward enlargement. On the other hand, the major internal reforms in the EU which are essential if enlargement is to take place have so far made only unsatisfactory progress. What are the reasons for this situation? What are the perspectives?     

European Agricultural Policy: Is there really no alternative?

In the intense political debate on the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy there is a high degree of consensus that the present rates of production growth must be stopped and structural surpluses dismantled. On the other hand, there is broad agreement that the structural adjustment of agriculture must not lead to unacceptable social hardships. Is an alternative to the present CAP which meets these criteria conceivable?     

EU agriculture: Reduced protection from exchange rate instability

In the past, the protection of agriculture in the EU from exchange rate instability was accomplished at the cost of confusing regulations, welfare losses and the discrimination of other sectors. Will the 1993 reform of the Agri-Monetary System, combined with wide 15% European Monetary System margins and the recent GATT agreement, lead to more efficiency in European agriculture?     

More or Less Ambition in the Doha Round: Winners and Losers from Trade Liberalisation with a Development Perspective

What is at stake in the standoff and suspension of the Doha Round of trade talks? What impact would an agreement based on greater or lesser levels of ambition have on developing countries, whose economies are relatively dependent on agriculture? Using the MIRAGE computable general equilibrium model of the global economy, in this article we compare different scenarios for the Doha agricultural and NAMA negotiations, taking real numbers from the proposals on the table from the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) in December 2005. The results for both scenarios demonstrate the high stakes for successful completion of this negotiation given the positions articulated by the countries involved. A cooperative reform outcome by the US and the EU – based on the most ambitious components of their negotiating proposals – delivers noticeably more benefits than an unambitious outcome. We measure the degree of ambition in each scenario by the construction of a Mercantilist Trade Restrictiveness Index and focus the analysis on the impacts on developing countries.     

Anticipating the Future of Finnish Agrifood Sector by Using Alternative Research Methods

The goal of this study is to forecast the future of the Finnish agri-food sector for decision makers and interest groups in order to support the process of policy planning and decision making in a changing EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) combined with alterations in the global agricultural, trade, and climate policy. Two methods are utilized concurrently in this study—the quantitative method based on a computable general equilibrium model called the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) and the Delphi method based on panels of expert opinions. The quantitative “what if” GTAP modeling is used to forecast the Finnish agri-food sector until 2030, while the qualitative Delphi method with panels of experts is used to foresee the short- and long-term developments in the Finnish agri-food sector. The results from both methods can provide a more complete picture and comprehensive understanding of the future. The GTAP model projects that the relative competitiveness of Finnish milk, cereal, and meat production would decrease and weaken in the EU market as subsidies are being removed and the markets become open and liberated. The interviewed experts in the food supply chain confirm this projection by foreseeing a further decrease in the overall consumption of food that is produced domestically in Finland, and thus the profitability of Finnish farms would weaken and remain low. The results from both methods paint a pessimistic future for the Finnish agri-food sector in the event of trade liberalization and abolition of subsidies for agriculture.     

Reform of the Common Agricultural Policy

The Common Agricultural Policy faces a number of major challenges. Further reforms are necessary in order to cope with the repercussions of the BSE crisis, the pending enlargement of the EU and the latter’s international trade commitments. What reform steps should be taken?     

The European Union’s Constitutional Crisis—Causes and Consequences

The rejection of the treaty establishing a European constitution by French and Dutch voters has thrown the EU into a deep crisis. What developments in the EU contributed to these referenda results? What consequences are to be drawn for the continuation of integration and the integration goal, the governance of the EU-25 and the further planned enlargements? What flaws are there in the present draft constitution and how can these be dealt with?     

Western European integration and Eastern European transformation

The process of EU integration has intensified in the 1980s and early 1990s. The desire of a number of central and eastern European countries to join the EU is often seen as a threat to the continuation of this process. How wide should the radius of EU enlargement be? Which forms of integration would be appropriate between the EU and different subsets of ex-CMEA countries?     

Accession of the Czech Republic,Hungary and Poland to the European Union: Impacts on Agricultural Markets

We analyse the consequences on agricultural markets of enlargement of the European Union (EU) to include the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. We produce a market outlook up to 2010 for two enlargement scenarios assuming different policy restrictions on grain and dairy production in the acceding countries. Accession of the three Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) leads to a permanent but moderate decrease in EU prices for most commodities. In the three acceding CEECs, domestic prices increase drastically, final consumption of agricultural products decreases in most instances, while production increases. Higher domestic prices in the CEECs reduce exports of most commodities to non‐union countries. Consequently, excess supplies are placed in stocks or exported to the original 15 member countries. Supply management mechanisms in the dairy and grain sectors would reduce the build‐up of surpluses in the new member states, but limit their ability to take advantage of the expanded market. Accession of the three CEECs would increase the CAP budget over its proposed maximum if area payments are extended to incoming crop producers.     

Energy policy: European,national, regional?

When it comes to energy policy, EU countries go their own way with little regard for other member states. What strategies exist in the EU Commission to coordinate and integrate energy markets? Are these strategies consistent with national plans currently in action? Is it too late to establish a unifi ed energy policy? What can be achieved in a unifi ed energy policy given the considerable differences in resource endowment and political preferences in energy strategies? Can the effectiveness of EU energy policy objectives be enhanced through policy coordination at the regional scale? This Forum seeks to provide answers to these questions.     

The CAP in the 2021–2027 MFF Negotiations

Pressure to embed environmental and climate action even more centrally into the CAP has also moved up the political agenda because of the EU’s commitment to action on the Paris Climate Agreement and the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).     

The New Generation of Structural and Investment Funds–More Than Financial Transfers?

The European Structural and Investment Funds make up more than 40% of the EU budget and are thereby the EU’s most important financial support to growth, employment, investment and structural change. The funds are programmed for (overlapping) seven-year periods, and all programmes for the new 2014-2020 period were adopted by the end of 2015. What can the EU and its taxpayers expect from this new generation of programmes? How do they fit into the EU’s efforts to strengthen its economic governance and performance, and what role do they play in the Juncker Commission’s “Investment Plan for Europe”?