International patent analysis as a tool for corporate technology analysis and planning

New, techniques of international patent anabsis are illustrated and resultsfrom preliminary validity tests of these techniques are presented. Indicators of technological activity, technological significance and commercial potential are constructed, and used to analyze fiber-based opto-electronic couplers and monoclonal-antibody-based diagnostic kits at the levels o f the technology, nation and firm. The international patent indicators are found to be closely correlated with R&D expenditures, scientific publications and new product introductions. They also relate to these indicators in ways that moke sense as specified in simple regression models of the innovation process. Comparisons of patent analysis results with expert opinion (for two process technologies) reveal that technology–level analyzes conform quite well with expert opinion, but national – and firm–level analyes vary from a low to a modest correlation with expert opinion. The authors conclude that the techniques can provide important information for corporate technology management, but that studies of additional technologies and further validity tests are needed.     

Micro evidence on international patenting

Globalization, high growth rates in high-tech industries, growing emerging markets and harmonization of patent institutions across countries have stimulated patenting in foreign markets. We use a simple model of international patenting, where the decision to patent in a foreign country depends on country characteristics and the quality of the patented invention. With access to a detailed database on individual patents owned by small Swedish firms and inventors, we are able to estimate some of these relationships and test their validity. Our results indicate that the propensity to apply for international patent protection increases with indicators of the quality of the invention, technological rivalry and market size in the host market.     

What Drives the International Transfer of Climate Change Mitigation Technologies? Empirical Evidence from Patent Data

Technology transfer plays a key role in global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, we characterize the factors that promote or hinder the international diffusion of climate-friendly technologies using detailed patent data from 96 countries for the period 1995–2007. The data provide strong evidence that lax Intellectual Property regimes have a strong and negative impact on the international diffusion of patented knowledge. Restrictions on international trade and foreign direct investment also hinder the diffusion of climate-friendly technologies. Surprisingly, local technological capabilities tend to discourage transfers. While broad indicators of technology capabilities are expected to facilitate transfers, this latter result stems from our technology-specific definition of local capabilities, which makes it possible to capture a substitution effect between local and foreign inventions.     

International diffusion of embodied and disembodied technology: A network analysis approach

This study proposes a quantitative method for investigating the structure of international technology diffusion. By using network analysis, this study defines the structural configuration of each country within the international diffusion network by measuring its degree, closeness, and betweenness centralities. In addition, this study distinguishes between embodied technology diffusion, measured by multilateral trade, and disembodied technology diffusion, measured by patent citations, in individual countries. This study empirically tests a sample data set of international technology diffusion taken from 48 countries. The empirical results show that the structural configuration of countries exhibits similar patterns in both embodied and disembodied diffusion networks. Significant global stratification patterns exist in the capability of national international technology exportation and brokerage advantages. Moreover, this study distinguishes four blocks of countries that play different roles in international technology diffusion: the leading countries provide a source of technological knowledge; an intermediate group diffuses the knowledge acquired from the source; a third group is in the process of initiating the export of technological knowledge; and a final group of countries absorbs technological knowledge without reciprocal exportation. Finally, this study identifies two types of catch-up strategies that newly industrialized or developing countries can use to move up the international technology stratification.     

A stochastic patent citation analysis approach to assessing future technological impacts

The anticipation and forecast of technological changes are of vital importance, as technological advances become increasingly fast and complex. What is at the core is identification of the current technologies that will drive technological changes over the coming few years. In this respect, numerous approaches have been devised to assess future technological impacts based on patent citation information, but do not provide a fair reflection of dynamic and idiosyncratic aspects of technological impacts as they are deterministic methods based on simple citation counts. We propose a stochastic patent citation analysis that can assess future technological impacts in a time period of interest by employing the future citation count as a proxy. At the heart of the proposed approach is a Pareto/NBD (Negative Binomial Distribution) model for taking into account the dynamic and idiosyncratic aspects of technological impacts. A patent citation matrix is first constructed for each time unit with citation patterns of the past. The future technological impacts are then derived by Pareto/NBD sub-model and gamma–gamma sub-model. A case study of the display technology patents is presented to illustrate the proposed approach. We believe our method can be employed in various research fields, from narrow patent valuation, to broad technological analysis and planning.     

Patent keyword network analysis for improving technology development efficiency

The methods of patent analysis are largely divided into network-based patent analysis and keyword-based morphological patent analysis. Both methods have their shortcomings: internal patent information composed of natural languages cannot be analyzed in the network-based patent analysis method, and the correlation between patents cannot be analyzed in the keyword-based morphological patent analysis method. In this research, we analyze the patents of Light Emitting Diode (LED) and wireless broadband fields via a method that incorporates both the network-based patent analysis and the keyword-based patent analysis methods. And by using network indices, we identify the characteristics of the patent keyword network, and also perform a trend analysis to discover how keywords play a significant role in network changes over time. The analysis results indicate that the patent keyword network is sporadic but clustered and shows a clear power law distribution. Further, the inflow keywords are highly likely to tie new connections with other keywords in the existing associated communities. Also, we confirm the fact that, as time passes, the top core keywords of a particular technology field continue to play an important role in the network and that also the rate of technological changes in wireless broadband field is faster than that of LED. Through the proposed analysis, researchers can easily grasp what technology keywords are important in the specific technology field and identify the relations between the essential technology elements; furthermore, this information can be utilized for developing new technologies by combining these technology elements extracted from community analysis.     

Technology clustering based on evolutionary patterns: The case of information and communications technologies

Technology trend analysis anticipates the direction and rate of technology changes, and thus supports strategic decision-making for innovation. As technological convergence and diversification are regarded as emerging trends, it is important to compare the growth patterns of various technologies in a particular industry to help understand the industry characteristics and analyse the technology innovation process. However, despite the potential value of this approach, conventional approaches have focused on individual technologies and paid little attention to synthesising and comparing multiple technologies. We therefore propose a new approach for clustering technologies based on their growth patterns. After technologies with similar patterns are identified, the underlying factors that lead to the patterns can be analysed. For that purpose, we analysed patent data using a Hidden Markov model, followed by clustering analysis, and tested the validity of the proposed approach by applying it to the ICT industry. Our approach provides insights into the basic nature of technologies in an industry, and facilitates the analysis and forecasting of their evolution.     

Mapping technological development using patent citation trees: an analysis of bogie technology

We create a generational patent citation tree to reveal the development of bogie technology in the high-speed rail industry. We cull the information in patent citations to reveal the generational development of bogie technology by analysing patent titles, patent publication dates and patent-granting regions. We then measure the development of bogie technology by calculating its technological development on-orbit rate and by mapping the stages of technological development and its regional diffusion. The results show that bogie technologies are in a period of sustained growth and this period of sustained growth will remain. Technological development is accelerating and this acceleration will persist, although the global dispersion of technology lags behind in scope and speed.     

Business planning based on technological capabilities: Patent analysis for technology-driven roadmapping

This research responds to the needs of technology-driven business by focusing on how firms can find new business opportunities based on their technological capabilities. It proposes a technology-driven roadmapping processes that starts from capability analysis for technology planning and ends with business opportunity analysis for market planning. We suggest the use of patent data as a proxy measure of technological capability for this purpose and develop four analysis modules — Monitoring, Collaboration, Diversification, and Benchmarking — to support decision-making during the process. Various analysis techniques such as text-mining, network analysis, citation analysis and index analysis are applied to discover meaningful implications from the patent data, which are summarized in four maps — Actor-similarity map, Actor-relations map, Technology-industry map, and Technology-affinity map. For the purpose of illustration, RFID-related patents are collected and the 18 firms with the most patents used, focusing especially on the third biggest. We believe using roadmapping and patent analysis together can play complementary roles for each other. Putting roadmapping techniques together with patent analysis can increase the objectivity and reliability of technology roadmap, while using patent analysis restricted to technological information together with roadmapping techniques can ensure that a more valuable breadth of strategic information is extracted from patents.     

Exploring Links Between Innovation and Diffusion: Adoption of NO<Subscript>X</Subscript> Control Technologies at US Coal-fired Power Plants

While many studies have looked at innovation and adoption of technologies separately, the two processes are linked. Advances (and expected advances) in a single technology should affect both its adoption rate and the adoption of alternative technologies. This paper combines plant-level data on US coal-fired electric power plants with patent data pertaining to NO_X pollution control techniques to study this link. As in other studies of environmental technologies, the effect of other explanatory variables is dominated by the effect of environmental regulations, demonstrating that the mere presence of environmental technologies is not enough to encourage its usage. Nonetheless, I do find that technological advances are important for the adoption of existing combustion modification technologies. However, these advances are less important for the adoption of newer post-combustion control techniques, which are adopted only when needed to comply with the strictest emission limits.     

A compared R&D-based and patent-based cross impact analysis for identifying relationships between technologies

The planning of technological research and development (R&D) is demanding in areas with many relationships between technologies. To support decision makers of a government organization with R&D planning in these areas, a methodology to make the technology impact more transparent is introduced. The method shows current technology impact and impact trends from the R&D of an organization's competitors and compares these to the technology impact and impact trends from the organization's own R&D. This way, relative strength, relative weakness, plus parity of the organization's R&D activities in technology pairs can be identified.A quantitative cross impact analysis (CIA) approach is used to estimate the impact across technologies. Our quantitative CIA approach contrasts to standard qualitative CIA approaches that estimate technology impact by means of literature surveys and expert interviews. In this paper, the impact is computed based on the R&D information regarding the respective organization on one hand, and based on patent data representative regarding R&D information of the organization's competitors on the other hand. As an illustration, the application field ‘defence’ is used, where many interrelations and interdependencies between defence-based technologies occur. Firstly, an R&D-based and patent-based Compared Cross Impact (CCI) among technologies is computed. Secondly, characteristics of the CCI are identified. Thirdly, the CCI data is presented as a network to show the overall structure and the complex relationships between the technologies. Finally, changes of the CCI are analyzed over time. The results show that the proposed methodology has the potential to generate useful insights for government organizations to help direct technology investments.     

On the evolution of technological specialization patterns in emerging countries: comparing Asia and Latin America

This paper explores the role of technological opportunity and cumulativeness in the evolution of technological specialization patterns (TSP) in catching-up processes. Concretely, I assume that opportunity induces mobility while cumulativeness leads to diversification and stability. The empirical analysis uses patent data indicators for nine Asian and Latin American countries between 1978 and 2012. The paper shows that, during economic liberalization (although with different timings), emerging countries caught up and redefined the path of technological accumulation for Asian and Latin American countries. With the exception of Hong Kong, all the countries increased their technology share, but they ran in different directions. Asian countries made greater relative efforts in dynamic technologies, while Latin American countries focused on stagnant technologies. In this sense, Asian countries achieved a more successful performance, building new technological bases and taking a technological leap in some of the more dynamic technologies. Meanwhile, Latin American countries left their technological bases unchanged. The paper also shows that, at the beginning of the catching-up cycle, the TSPs were turbulent. Afterwards, cumulativeness in the technological choice induced the diversification and stabilization of the TSPs.     

萌芽期颠覆性技术识别研究

从颠覆性技术成长周期入手，根据萌芽期颠覆性技术特点，采用基于创新性、独创性与功能分析的识别方法，在技术创新没有造成市场显著变化时实现预警决策。首先进行技术生命周期分析，随后利用创新性和独创性特点衡量技术颠覆性，排除渐进性技术干扰，最后运用功能分析方法研究技术新功能对未来市场的影响。以工业机器人专利技术领域进行实证，验证了方法的可行性和有效性。     

Exploring technological resilience at the country level with patents

Resilience is critical to stabilise and reduce shocks and create advantages over competitors in environments with dramatic change and unexpected crises. There is no generally agreed-upon definition of technological resilience, and there is not yet a well-developed theory of technological resilience at the country level. The objective of this paper is to contribute to technological resilience research based on patent indicators by analyzing OECD countries’ technological resilience. This paper provides a framework to analyze the quality of selected patent indicators used for estimating technological crisis. More specifically, four sets of patent indicators, i.e. collaboration, knowledge, diversity, and legal protection, are employed to evaluate technological resilience, which is characterised as crisis probability, intensity, and duration. We found that higher technological coverage leads to higher crisis probability, more original technology leads to higher crisis intensity, and interpersonal collaboration enhances the chance of passing a crisis.     

专利家族视角下技术演化路径依赖研究——以光刻技术为例

以专利家族为研究视角,阐述技术路径动态演化过程中的路径依赖。专利家族自引会对技术主路径造成干扰,通过对主路径进行调整,提出一种修正技术主路径的新思路。研究发现：光刻技术在“投影对准和曝光系统—浸没式投影物镜—浸没式光刻材料—光刻胶”4个阶段经历了“路径消解—路径产生与路径依赖—路径消解与突破”的动态演化过程。在此过程中,以荷兰阿斯麦、德国蔡司和日本东京电子为代表的专利家族发挥重要作用。其中,以阿斯麦为核心的利益联盟垄断核心技术,强化光刻技术发展的路径依赖作用,占据市场领先地位。研究结论有助于深化对路径依赖理论的认知,通过揭示光刻技术路径演化过程及企业演化格局,为后发国家突破技术路径依赖提供实践启示。     

新兴技术社会风险化解的前瞻性治理特征

新兴技术这柄“双刃剑”虽然给国家带来新发展动能，但也同时引发诸多社会风险，如何化解新兴技术社会风险成为新兴技术治理面临的难题。前瞻性治理研究为新兴技术社会风险化解提供了一些思考，但是相关研究较为分散和模糊，相关经验难以奏效。运用文本分析法和层次分析法，聚焦治理主体、过程和结果3个要素，提炼新兴技术社会风险化解的前瞻性治理特征，并在中国情境下检验其适用性。结果表明，公众参与结果纳入既定政策议程、否决权、新兴技术公众参与法律法规等前瞻性特征得到专家一致认同，认为它们是新兴技术社会风险化解的必要条件。研究结论对提高新兴技术社会风险治理绩效具有一定理论启示。     

市场信号、技术特征与中国国际高质量专利

近年来,中国专利申请量与授权量得到了快速飞跃,然而“专利泡沫”“专利沉睡”等问题也日益凸显,如何有效促进专利数量到专利质量的转变是实现专利强国的关键。本文基于信号传递理论,构建了市场信号与技术特征共同影响国际高质量专利形成的理论模型,并利用中国在美国专利与商标局(USPTO)申请的专利数据进行了实证检验。研究结果表明:市场信号有助于传递积极的专利信号与打破信息不对称,推动形成国际高质量专利;技术特征能够扩大专利自身的技术范围与技术合作空间,与国际高质量专利也存在显著正向关系;此外,技术特征能够产生技术噪音与技术竞争压力,弱化信号传递效率,从而负向调节市场信号对国际高质量专利的促进效应。本文认为与市场上的普通商品一样,专利存在“酒香也怕巷子深”问题,一方面企业应该加强专利国际推广;另一方面政府需要进一步完善市场机制与减弱信息不对称,共同塑造中国国际高质量专利。     

Capitalism, profits and innovation in the new techno-economic paradigm

Innovative profits (of the kind conceptualized by Schumpeter) are today being increasingly created through international corporate networks for technological development. Such profits through innovation are encouraged by newer more flexible organizational forms, and further encouraged (unlike in the conventional perspective on profits and on the incentive to innovate) by knowledge flows between firms. Our empirical evidence, based on US patent data, shows that multinational companies are currently more likely to develop abroad technologies which are less science-based, and less dependent upon tacit knowledge. However, within the science-based industries firms may generate abroad some technologies which are heavily dependent on tacit knowledge, but normally in fields that lie outside their own core technological competencies. We find some evidence of a convergence in corporate technological diversification across large firms, facilitated by the now common spread in the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) as an integrator of formerly separate technological systems. This has led smaller firms to diversify, but giant firms to consolidate activity around those technologies that have become most interrelated.     

Multivariate multiple regression modelling for technology analysis

Technology analysis is important for technology management areas such as research and development strategy and new product development. So many studies on technology analysis have been used across a diverse array of fields. Most of these were based on patent analysis, which analyses patent documents using text mining and statistics. The studies on conventional patent analyses constructed models consisting of various independent variables (technologies) and one dependent variable. But in reality, we have to consider a model that includes several dependent variables at the same time, because most technologies influence each other. In this paper, we propose a methodology for patent analysis that reflects the various response technologies simultaneously. We perform multivariate multiple regression modelling in order to efficiently conduct our technology analysis. To show how our modelling can be applied to realistic context, we carry out a case study using the patent documents related to three-dimensional printing technology.