Does Benford’s Law hold in economic research and forecasting?

First and higher order digits in data sets of natural and socio-economic processes often follow a distribution called Benford’s law. This phenomenon has been used in business and scientific applications, especially in fraud detection for financial data. In this paper, we analyse whether Benford’s law holds in economic research and forecasting. First, we examine the distribution of regression coefficients and standard errors in research papers, published in Empirica and Applied Economics Letters. Second, we analyse forecasts of GDP growth and CPI inflation in Germany, published in Consensus Forecasts. There are two main findings: The relative frequencies of the first and second digits in economic research are broadly consistent with Benford’s law. In sharp contrast, the second digits of Consensus Forecasts exhibit a massive excess of zeros and fives, raising doubts on their information content.     

Does the unemployment invariance hypothesis hold for Romania?

This article questions whether the unemployment invariance hypothesis of Layard et al. (2005), which states that movements in labour force do not significantly affect unemployment rates, holds true for Romania. Using quarterly labour force data for the 1996–2012 period, we explore the time-series properties of the two variables. We find that unemployment rates and participation rates have unit roots, and that they are not cointegrated, meaning that no significant long-term relationship exists between them. The analysis carried out on the first differences of unemployment rates and participation rates shows discouraged and added worker effects for Romania’s female labour force. This conclusion diverges from findings that point out to a stable, long-term relationship between unemployment and participation in several developed countries (Japan, Sweden, USA) and shows that Romanian labour market is highly adaptive, where changes in labour force participation do not lead to increases in unemployment. This finding can help model the influence of adverse developments such as ageing and emigration, and show their true impact beyond demographic doom scenarios. It also points out the role played by labour demand in shaping the evolution of the Romanian labour market.     

Does tax competition make mobile firms more footloose?

We examine a two‐period regional model with evolving economic geography, potentially creating incentives for firm relocation between periods. We argue that tax competition makes firms more footloose, but that this increases efficiency relative to the laissez‐faire outcome. We establish that: (i) tax competition leads to efficient investment outcomes and (ii) firm mobility is greater with tax competition than with a laissez‐faire regime. When relocation is costly, there can be too little mobility over time, as firms do not take into account the impact of FDI on social welfare in each country. With lump‐sum taxes or transfers, firms capture these benefits and internalize them, such that tax competition leads to the efficient outcomes. When more time periods are examined, tax competition induces firm relocation sooner than in its absence.     

Does corruption increase or decrease employment in firms?

We use representative data for firms for Latin American firms and show that corruption decreases employment in firms. This result is robust to changes in specification and also consistent with the use of an instrumental variables approach. Corruption appears to negatively impact the growth and wealth in a country, not by introducing labour distortion in firms, but by keeping them small.     

Making small firms happy? The heterogeneous effect of trade facilitation measures

The different facets of trade facilitation may impact heterogeneously exporters of different size and productivity. Using the cross‐sectional variation in procedures at the border, we identify how red tape affects trade through the extensive and/or the intensive margin and show that small and large exporters are affected differently. We observe that while information availability benefits both small and large exporters, other measures like advance ruling, appeal procedures and the automation of border formalities tend to favor large exporters. This result suggests that trade facilitation policies affect exporters through channels other than simply the fixed or variable cost component of the red tape barriers. Beyond affecting the size and composition of trade flows, uncertainty about the conditions of crossing borders plays an important role in shaping the demography of exporters across different destinations.     

Does innovation help the good or the poor performing firms?

Using firm-level innovation data we find surprising results on the benefits of innovation. Only manufacturing firms with below average productivity growth are likely to benefits significantly from successful innovation, while faster growing firms do not gain additional benefits from innovating.     

Why invest in green technologies? Sustainability engagement among small businesses

This study examines the links between sustainability engagement and green technology investments. Using data on 139 Finnish small businesses, the results show a positive relationship between the two. The sustainability engagement of small businesses affects their interest in investing in green technology. However, engagement in environmental sustainability does not seem to be the main motivator behind green technology investments. The results of the mediation analysis show that when investing in green technologies, companies do not consider environmental sustainability as a main value but as a way of achieving social and economic value.     

Does the traditional exchange rate fully explain firms’ exposure?

This study aims to explore the role of the cross exchange rate as a form of market competition, which has previously been omitted as an explanatory variable in estimating the risk exposure of the standard exchange. To the end, we develop a model of exporting firms that reflects exposure to market interaction and mark-up in a duopolistic export market. Using monthly data of stock returns and cross exchange rates of two oligopoly industries (i.e. semiconductor and steel & iron), our empirical evidence supports our hypothesis that cross exchange rates significantly explain firm value.     

Does tax competition increase infrastructural disparity among jurisdictions?

This paper investigates whether an economy that lags behind in infrastructure compared with other countries can make up its shortfall when it competes for foreign direct investments. The main message of the paper is that jurisdictional competition can enable the lagging country to reduce the infrastructural gap if capital mobility is sufficiently high and the gap is not too large. Further, we show that size asymmetry reinforces (weakens) the effect in reducing the infrastructural disparity resulting from interjurisdictional competition when the lagging economy is small (large).     

Does trade creation by social and business networks hold in services?

Recent literature on the border effect has shown that the intensity of trade in goods is positively correlated with the migration stocks between any pair of countries/regions. The number of references for business networks is more limited, but they are also related with a reduction on information costs. In this article we investigate whether such a relation holds also for Spanish domestic trade flows in consumer services. To this end, we use a gravity model rooted in the Dixit–Stiglitz–Krugman theoretical framework and a unique data set on interregional trade flows for some of the main tourism service sectors, namely, accommodations and restaurants. Our industry-specific analysis finds a large positive effect for restaurants but a more limited effect for accommodations. Forces driving the demand in each sector explain this result and suggest the idea that although social networks can act as a substitute of firms in some sectors at the same time they can enhance trade flows in other sectors. We perform the same kind of analysis with a data set (obtained by a similar method) for domestic trade in goods and discover a different response to social and business networks. Finally, we treat the potential endogeneity by taking the instrumental-variable approach of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator and thus obtain consistent results.     

Does ownership affect firms’ efficiency? Panel data evidence on Italy

This paper provides empirical evidence on the relation between the identity of ultimate owners and technical (in)efficiency by estimating stochastic production frontiers on Italian firm level panel data for twelve manufacturing industries over the 1978–93 period. Privately-owned independent firms are used as reference group and their efficiency is assessed against three alternative forms of ownership: subsidiaries of (privately owned) national business groups, subsidiaries of foreign multinationals, and state owned firms. Even if cross-industry differences obviously exist a common pattern can however be identified. Overall, subsidiaries of foreign multinationals (state owned firms) are found to be more (less) efficient than the reference group. On the contrary, no systematic difference is found between independent firms and subsidiaries of national business groups.First version received: July 2002/Final version received: September 2003We wish to thank the Editor Robert Kunst, a very constructive Referee, Luigi Benfratello, Maurizio Conti, Almas Heshmati, Giovanna Nicodano and the participants at the EARIE conference in Lausanne for helpful comments on a previous draft.     

Does stock trading volume signal future dividends? Evidence from Iberian firms

Portuguese Economic Journal - In the study we test the theory that financial markets can provide relevant information about forthcoming corporate events. More specifically, we examine the ability...     

Does PPP hold in the transition economies? The case of poland Hungary

This paper uses non-stationarity and cointegration of time series to investigate the validity of long-run purchasing power parity for Poland and Hungary for the period 1981:1-1993:2. Long-run PPP is examined vis-à-vis three countries, the United States, United Kingdom and Germany. Although the nominal exchange rates and relative price ratios between Poland and Hungary and each of the three countries are non-stationaary, they are not cointegrated indicating a rejection of the hypothesis. This conclusion is supported by the real exchange rate, which follows a random walk.     

Does forced solidarity hamper investment in small and micro enterprises?

Summary: Previous research has shown that small firms in poor countries achieve high marginal returns to capital but show low reinvestment rates. We investigate whether transfers motivated by risk sharing and forced redistribution can explain this pattern and may therefore hamper private sector development. The idea is that the more redistribution distorts the fairness of insurance, the more potentially successful entrepreneurs may be hindered to undertake profitable investments. The empirical results based on a sample of small firms operating in Burkina Faso support the main propositions of this paper.     

Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates

Standard unit root tests are not very powerful in drawing conclusions regarding the validity of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). Rather than asking whether PPP holds throughout the whole sample period, we examine, in this study, if PPP holds sometimes by employing Hamilton-type (1989) Markov regime switching models. When at least one of multiple regimes is stationary, PPP holds locally within the regime. There are indeed various reasons that we should expect that the persistence of real exchange rates changes over time. Employing five real exchange rates spanning more than 100 years, we find herein strong evidence that the strength of PPP varies during the sample periods and that there exist stationary regimes in which PPP holds. Throughout the article, we also make comparisons to previous Markov regime switching estimation results by Kanas (2006) on the same data series. The new Markov switching model selection criterion of Smith et al. (2006), which is devised especially for discriminating Markov regime switching models, unambiguously indicates a preference for the Hamilton-type Markov regime switching model employed in this study. We also find that the evidence for PPP is not much different across different nominal exchange rate arrangements.     

Does the Linder effect hold for differentiated agri-food and beverage product trade?

Using a generalized gravity equation, this study tests for the Linder effect in differentiated agri-food product trade, i.e. as the demand structures of two countries become more similar, their trade intensity increases. Two proxies of demand structure, the Balassa index and the absolute value of the difference in per capita Gross Domestic Products (GDPs) of trading partners, are used to capture the Linder effect. In addition, two measures of bilateral trade, the Grubel and Lloyd (GL) index, and the value of bilateral trade are used as the dependent variable. This study investigates the role of the Linder effect in explaining the trade of 37 differentiated agri-food and beverage products categorized into eight product groups: cereals, fresh fish, frozen fish, vegetables, fresh fruit, processed fruit, tea and coffee and alcoholic beverages. The data covers trade across 52 developed and developing countries from 1990 to 2000. The type of proxy used for the Linder effect and the way in which bilateral trade is measured influence the outcome of the statistical tests for the Linder effect. The Linder effect for cereals, frozen fish, vegetables, processed fruits and tea and coffee, using the value of trade as the dependent variable, is often accepted, but it is generally rejected when the GL index is used as the measure of trade intensity. In brief, the results do not provide strong support for the Linder effect in the trade of differentiated agri-food products.     

Need for speed? Exploring the relative importance of patents and utility models among German firms

Despite the wide use of two-tiered patent systems (patents and utility models (UMs)), there is little empirical evidence about how often UMs are actually used, what kind of firms use them to protect their intellectual property, and how firms rank them relative to patents. We offer such an analysis using data from Germany. We find that larger firms are more likely to use both protection methods. Moreover, a short life cycle of products and services is associated with an increased likelihood to use UMs. The features and functioning of the German UM system are of broader interest because it has been a benchmark for several second tier patent protection systems around the world.     

Does the Law of One Price Hold within the EU? A Panel Analysis

This paper empirically tests the law of one price by applying unit root tests to three panels consisting of data on 90 consumer price indices for the EU-25, the EU-15 and the 10 new EU member countries that joined the EU in 2004. The four major findings of this paper are: (1) panel unit root tests find evidence of price convergence for about 70% of all product groups, (2) the results are sensitive to the choice of the numeraire country implying that any conclusions must be based on all bilateral combinations, (3) the average half life across all product groups is 2.0 years, (4) the overall evidence for the law of one price is weaker in the 10 new EU member countries than in the EU-15.