市场结构对城乡结合部征地与出让市场运行效率的影响

市场结构与市场行为决策及经济绩效之间存在着内在的相互关系,市场结构通过诱导市场上各个行为主体的决策,继而影响市场运行效率和资源配置效率。文中探讨了现行土地制度下市场结构对城乡结合部土地市场形成与运行机制的影响,特别是对集体土地市场形成与发展的影响。     

Testing for regional convergence of agricultural land prices

The focus of this paper is on spatial market integration in agricultural land markets. We scrutinize the applicability of the law of one price to land markets and distinguish between absolute and relative versions of this “law”. Panel data unit root and stationarity tests are applied to land sale prices in the German state Lower Saxony. Three main clusters with different price developments are detected. Our results indicate that the law of one price holds only locally due to structural differences among regions.     

Farmland prices and land-use changes in periurban protected natural areas

This paper provides empirical and conceptual insights in analysing the factors that determine the prices of farmland within Protected Natural Areas that are close to densely populated urban areas, the changes in land use experiences as well as the additional control policies needed to curb this unsustainable trend.The Urdaibai Biosphere Reserve nearby the metropolitan area of Bilbao (Basque Country, Spain) is the case study considered and its bordering non-protected rural area is used as a reference for comparison. A spatial hedonic farmland price model is estimated and the willingness of land purchasers to pay for different farmland characteristics quantified both inside and outside the Urdaibai Biosphere Reserve. The main results are that: (1) residential development is taking place in all categories of farmland, (2) aside from neighbouring prices, farmland prices depend on different factors depending on whether the marketed plots stand inside or outside the Protected Natural Area, (3) the “reserve effect” on land prices is less powerful than the “proximity to the metropolitan area (and motorway) effect” observed from villages of the non-protected area located in the 3rd crown of Bilbao, (4) the reasons for farmers non-compliance with policy regulations is the necessary knowledge base for the farmland conservation policy design and (5) in the light of the results, three development-control policy instruments such as Payments for Ecosystem Services, Tradable Planning Permits and development-taxes are discussed considering the factors that could improve compliance.     

对构建中国城乡统一的土地市场的思考

建立城乡统一和公开竞争的土地市场,是完善城乡土地统一管理的核心。只有建立城乡统一的土地市场,才能发挥市场对土地资源配置的基础性作用,才能在征地过程中彻底消除集体土地和国有土地的产权歧视,从而从根本上阻止征地冲突。构建我国城乡统一的土地市场应分三步走。第一步,解决城乡统一的土地市场的市场主体问题;第二步,在农村集体土地产权清晰的基础上,推进农村集体建设用地使用权出让市场,农村集体农地承包经营权流转市场和农村集体土地所有权的建设;第三步,农村集体土地和城市国有土地在同权下自由竞争、平等交易,达到自然融合。     

城市土地价格膨胀的影响

研究目的:近年来我国许多城市的土地价格已经很高且上涨速度很快,有的城市已经出现经济泡沫,危害了国民经济的发展。研究方法:联系实际进行理论分析。研究结果:城市地价上涨,加深了土地供给与需求之间的矛盾,影响社会和经济的发展。研究结论:土地价格持续、迅速的增加给经济带来的影响是巨大的,如不采取有力措施遏止土地价格上涨的趋势,势必会成为我国经济发展的一大障碍,国家有关部门及相关专家应密切关注这一问题的发展动向,及时出台相关合理的、科学的土地政策,消除隐患。     

郑州市商服用地基准地价时空变异研究

本文以郑州市为研究区域,利用基准地价分级图与价格指数,对2003-2008年郑州市商服用地基准地价进行时空变异分析,主要结论如下:(1)基准地价呈现单中心连续分布;(2)基准地价在部分地区出现了跳跃现象,其空间分布存在着变异性;(3)基准地价分布与城市主干道呈局部平行关系;(4)基准地价变化受经济、政策和城市规划影响显著。     

Urban proximity,demand for land and land shadow prices in Malawi

We assess the spatial and intertemporal variation in farmland prices using per hectare minimum willingness to accept (WTA) sales and rental (shadow) prices in Malawi. We use three rounds of nationally representative farm household panel data from the Living Standards Measurement Surveys (LSMS), collected in 2010, 2013 and 2016. The sample is split in quintiles based on distance from the nearest major city, building on the land valuation and transaction cost theory, and agrarian political economy perspectives on global and national land transactions. Generally, farmland shadow prices decrease with distance from urban areas. However, farmland shadow sales prices increased more sharply between 2010 and 2013 in rural areas (+100 % vs +30 % in urban proximity). The results indicate that the sharp increase in demand for large-scale land transfers following the sharp increase in energy and food prices also affected rural smallholders’ land valuation, even in remote rural areas of Malawi. Conversely, by 2016 land shadow sales prices were again, like in 2010, about three times as high in areas near urban centres compared to remote rural areas. Even though sales prices declined in remote rural areas from 2013 to 2016, rental prices remained high. Using farm household-level population pressure variable, we show that local population pressure is a driver of farmland shadow prices, indicating land scarcity challenges, growing demand for land, and poorly developed land markets. With increasing land scarcity, land markets are becoming more important and need to be factored in when formulating development policies that aim to improve access to land in both peri-urban and rural areas.     

基于市场决定理念下的征地补偿标准确定方法研究 ——以甘肃省张掖市城市规划区为例

研究目的：针对现行征地补偿标准确定方法的弊端,探索符合各地实际的征地补偿标准确定方法。研究方法：社会调查法,逻辑推理法,实证研究法。研究结果：按照征地后用途不同采用不同的确定方法能够提高征地补偿标准,保障农民权益,充分体现土地价值,具有可操作性。研究结论：公益性用地采用地价构成法,非公益性用地采用基准地价反算法,从不同角度测算征地补偿标准切实可行。     

城乡建设用地市场一体化视角下农地发展权价格研究

在国内外农地发展权已有的研究基础上,从机会成本及资源环境经济学角度对农地发展权价格进行阐述,指出农地发展权价格是农用地变更为建设用地后价值增值的货币表现,是一种增值收益的价格,其源于不同利用方式下土地产出率的差别。采用相应的评估方法,对农地发展权价格进行了量化,并以长沙大河西先导区为例,测算出研究区农地发展权价格为187.61元/m~2。     

Effects of decoupling on the mean and variability of output

The influence of inputs on output risk in the context of agriculturalproduction decisions taken by non-risk neutral agents has beenignored by previous research assessing the effects of decoupledincome support payments in a deterministic world or risk-neutralframework. We study the impacts of decoupled payments on inputuse and on output mean and variance. Our theoretical frameworkfor studying agricultural producers' responses to lump sum paymentsallows for both output and price uncertainty and economic agents'risk attitudes. Results show the importance, in a non-risk neutralscenario, of considering the influence that economic agentshave on the stochastic component of output through input use.Our empirical application uses Kansas farm-level data to illustratethe model.     

区域农村劳动力市场发育对农地流转的影响——以江苏省宝应县为例

研究目的:揭示农村劳动力市场发育对于农地流转的影响程度。研究方法:实证分析法。研究结果:农地流转率与家庭非农就业率正相关,农户家庭非农就业率提高1%,农村土地流转率将提高16.26%。研究结论:依据农村劳动力市场发育与农地流转的内在关系,通过加快户籍制度改革以及非农就业农民社会保障制度的建设,进一步促进农地流转,促进农地规模经营,积极推进新农村建设和现代农业发展。     

城市土地价格对土地资源配置的影响研究述评

借助于成熟的西方经济学、城市经济学、土地经济学、地理学等有关理论,探讨在市场经济体制下,城市土地价格调节城市土地资源配置的理论基础.结果表明:城市土地价格通过价格杠杆和竞争机制调控土地资源的总量配置、结构配置、各区配置、时序配置及微观配置等,对优化土地资源配置发挥着基础性作用.     

城镇住宅用地基准地价的地质灾害影响及修正系数研究 ——以兰州市为例

研究目的:研究地质灾害对城镇住宅地价的影响及城镇住宅基准地价的地质灾害因素修正系数编制。研究方法:探索性空间数据分析、网格地价模型和地理加权回归模型。研究结果:基于兰州市1621个住宅地价调查样点数据的分析显示,地质灾害隐患可导致土地价值的降低,但作用程度在不同土地级别、不同空间位置存在差异,地质灾害对地价产生负作用的极值易出现在各类洪道、沟坡地带;运用兰州市公开出让住宅用地数据进行验算,将网格地价模型和GWR模型法得出的修正系数应用于兰州市基准地价修正法评估,验算结果基本符合兰州市地价实际情况,网格地价模型的验算结果较GWR模型更为平稳。研究结论:地质灾害因素修正系数的空间量化,有助于提高地价评估的准确和客观性;网格地价模型法较GWR模型法更适合当前基准地价修正系数编制。     

基于地价指数的城市地价走势预测研究--以湖南省湘潭市为例

研究目的以湖南省湘潭市城市地价动态监测体系为基础和平台,探讨城市地价预测方法.研究方法GM(1,1)模型、贝叶斯方法及先行指标法.研究结果(1)GM(1,1)模型对湘潭市区地价水平的历史趋势拟合程度高,预测结果符合湘潭市社会经济及土地市场变化规律;(2)转折点预测的结论是湘潭市城市地价水平将继续上行,短期内不会改变方向.研究结论通过编制城市地价指数,采用GM(1,1)灰色模型、贝叶斯方法及先行指标等对市场地价水平及其波动转折点进行预测分析,是一条较科学的技术途径.     

The impact of agricultural conservation easement on nearby house prices: Incorporating spatial autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity

The impact of farmland under agricultural conservation easement (ACE) contract on the values of nearby residential properties is investigated using housing sales data in two Pennsylvania counties. ACE-protected farmland had a positive impact on nearby property values in one study county but a negative impact in the other. The paper also looks at the impact of forest land use, and discovers that preserved forest land had a positive impact on the nearby property values in both counties. House prices showed strong spatial correlation in both counties, and a spatial error components (SEC) model fit the data better than the OLS model, a spatial-lag model (SLM), or a spatial autoregressive error model (SEM). Geographically weighted regression (GWR) showed that the impact of ACE-protected farmland on nearby property values varied within one of the two study counties, with positive impacts in some parts of the county and negative impacts in other parts. The impact of forest cover on property values also varied, with positive impacts within both counties. A new hybrid GWR-SEC model is introduced that incorporates both spatial correlation in prices and spatial heterogeneity in the model parameters. Statistical goodness of fit measures showed that the GWR-SEC model fit better than the GWR model or a hybrid GWR-SEM model.     

农村集体非农建设用地直接上市:市场失灵与其政策矫正

研究目的:研究中国农村集体非农建设用地直接上市陷于困境的制度之源,探讨农村集体非农建设用地直接上市的政策矫正。研究方法:局部均衡分析和交易费用分析。研究结果:中国现行法律法规对农村集体非农建设用地直接上市限制不当以及集体非农建设用地产权残缺提升了市场交易费用,减弱了当事人的集体非农建设用地供求,影响了交易效率,降低了社会福利。研究结论:必须"尊重农民土地财产权利",在明晰农村集体非农建设用地产权基础上,赋予农村集体非农建设用地直接上市的权利,从消除制度障碍、明晰土地产权等角度克服中国集体非农建设用地直接上市的瓶颈。     

近年城市各业用地价格研究

研究目的:深入研究商业、居住、工业各业地价走势及其内在关系,辅助宏观决策。研究方法:统计分析法,文献资料法。研究结果:近10年来,中国城市土地市场总体向好,但各业地价发展不平衡,协调性较弱,没有形成科学稳定的内在机制,不利于经济发展和国际竞争。研究结论:坚持各业用地的市场化配置方向,充分发挥价格信号的作用;深化紧缩性的房地产调控政策,逐步校正地方政府的宏观非理性倾向;适时调整工业用地出让最低价标准,兼顾显化资源价值、引导经济布局、参与国际竞争等多重目标。     

金融发展对城市地价的影响效应分析

研究目的:构建城市地价均衡模型,从理论和实证层面研究金融发展对城市商业地价和住宅地价的影响作用,为国家地价调控政策的制定提供理论依据。研究方法:岭回归分析。研究结果:人均贷款规模对城市商业和住宅地价具有显著的正向影响且强度基本相同,而人均存款规模只对住宅地价产生影响,但对地价变动的贡献小于贷款规模;金融相关比率对城市地价的影响效应尚不显著;工资水平对地价的影响强度要明显大于贷款规模。研究结论:当前阶段,居民收入水平的增加是地价上涨的主要因素,但金融发展规模特别是贷款规模对城市地价具有显著的影响,因此在金融结构尚未对地价产生明显影响之时,控制货币供应对稳定地价具有重要意义。     

城乡建设用地市场一体化测度及实证分析

研究目的：基于2015—2020年浙江省德清县与广东省南海区的城乡建设用地市场交易数据，实证分析产权的市场分割效应，定量测度城乡建设用地市场一体化水平并进行对比分析。研究方法：OLS回归，时空地理加权回归，倾向得分匹配与相对价格法。研究结果：（1）产权的市场分割效应显著且存在地区差异，集体产权在南海区正向影响建设用地价格,而在德清县反之；（2）地区间城乡建设用地市场一体化进程不一，集体建设用地市场发育更为成熟的南海区城乡建设用地市场一体化水平为1.707，相较于德清县的0.880领先；（3）同一地区不同区域的城乡建设用地市场一体化水平也存在分化，集体经营性建设用地以异地调整入市为特色的德清县相较于政府整备入市的南海区城乡建设用地市场一体化的内部差异更小。研究结论：产权依旧是城乡建设用地市场一体化面临的主要制度性壁垒，不同地区及其内部城乡建设用地市场一体化分异明显。未来在深入推进土地权利权能平等，改善集体建设用地区位劣势的同时，也需进一步关注城乡建设用地市场一体化在区域协调发展中的作用。