人民币汇率政策选择

该文讨论了在我国对外收支“双顺差”的格局下，汇率与对外收支“双顺差”的关系以及对外收支对国内货币供求的影响，然后利用开放经济条件下的IS-LM-BP模型探讨了应对“双顺差”的汇率政策选择。探讨了人民币是否应该升值、何时升值以及如何升值的问题。     

人民币汇率政策的选择

中国央行行长周小川在“两会”上的记者会提及货币政策时,提到最多的是“控制通胀”,似乎在暗示中国在2013年面临着更加严峻的通胀态势。而在人民币国际化的议题上,周行长则再度强调资本账户开放的长期性和渐进性。资本账户以及人民币国际化不会一蹴而就,但汇率战争的硝烟却开始弥漫,这也让中国的汇率政策选择更显得艰难。中国在过去两个月出现了较为明显的资本流入态势,这让人民币面临压力。然而,通胀压力上升,却意味着中国不能允许人民币大幅贬值一一因为这意味着货币政策的宽松。     

论资本账户非开放条件下人民币汇率制度的选择

文章根据赫勒的＂经济论＂和蒙代尔＂不可能三角＂理论,认为在当前形势下,保持人民币汇率稳定仍然是汇率政策的首要目标,应当建立完善和稳定的国内金融体系,创造汇率稳定的市场条件。     

开放的宏观经济下的人民币汇率政策取向

随着我国加入世贸组织日益临近,宏观经济的全面开放已成为不可逆转的趋势,并不可避免地与世界经济密切相关,人民币的汇率也会受到影响,因此必须确定适当的汇率政策.     

论人民币汇率政策选择

关于人民币汇率政策,有两个问题需要深入分析研究：其一是人民币要不要升值,其二是人民币汇率要不要浮动。本文认为人民币的升值时机基本成熟,但实行浮动汇率制的条件尚不具备。中国可考虑适当升值人民币,并在新的汇率水平上实行稳定的汇率政策。     

开放经济下人民币汇率体制与贸易政策协调新机制探讨

在开放经济下,随着我国国际收支顺差扩大和外汇储备的急剧增加,给我国经济带来了一定的负面影响:货币政策实施难度与外汇市场干预风险加大,政府出口津贴的财政负担加重,对外贸易摩擦凸显等.为此,应加大人民币汇率体制市场化改革力度,重新调整贸易政策和贸易发展战略,建立新的汇率体制与贸易政策协调机制,从而减轻人民币升值压力、提高货币政策与财政政策实施效果和减少对外贸易摩擦.     

宏观均衡条件下的人民币汇率政策取向

一、加入WTO对我国汇率政策制定的影响加入WTO,我国对金融市场的开放做出了一系列的承诺,并排出了金融市场开放的详细的时间表,开放日程大致为:中国加入WTO2年后允许外资银行办理国内企业的人民币业务;5年后可办理中国居民的人民币业务,同时在地域上逐步对外资银行开放,5年后将不再有地域限制,对外资金融机构实施完全的国民待遇。加入WTO,我国的经济与世界经济的联系更加紧密,使我国经济与世界经济的依存度更高,因而加入WTO对我国汇率安排的影响是巨大的。在金融开放的条件下,固定汇率的原有效用是否还能得到有效发挥决定于以下几个层次的市场:①外汇市场和货币市场;②资本市场,主要包括国债市场、股票市场     

人民币汇率制度改革与汇率政策选择

汇率制度改革的国际实践与比较 　　汇率制度的改革,与全球经济一体化发展的进程密切相连.为了促进对外贸易和吸引外资流入,发展我国家通常多选择实行固定汇率制度或"准固定汇率制度"的汇兑安排.在汇率制度的改革过程中,拉美和东南亚的发展我国家还引人了诸如"爬行钉住"、"区间浮动"和'管理浮动"等从固定汇率向浮动汇率过渡的中间性汇兑安排.与此同时,在国际金融制度发展过程中,随着美国放弃"布雷顿森林体系",浮动汇率制逐渐成为国际汇兑制度的主体形式.……     

THE EMERGENCE OF AN OFFSHORE ECONOMY

There has been growing interest over the past few years in the changing political structure of the world. Predictions range from the withering away of the state to the advent of a global state. This article proposes an alternative scenario: that the state system is not disappearing, but is in the process of creating secondary, relatively unregulated juridical spaces in which economic activities can develop more or less without hindrance. This secondary space, known as `offshore', already dominates international finance and shipping, and plays a significant role in international trade and telecommunications. Offshore is a barrier to the extension of those social provisions that were traditionally provided by states. This paper offers an insight into the ways by which increasing integration of the global market is supported and facilitated by the state system.     

THE ROLE OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS IN STUDIES OF ACCOUNTING POLICY CHOICE: A COMMENT

The study by Anderson and Zimmer [1992] of goodwill accounting policies uses a pooled time series experimental design. This approach can add substantially to our understanding of accounting policy choices, but not in the manner used by Anderson and Zimmer. Where accounting policy choices are believed to be independent from one period to the next, then a time series approach can greatly enhance our ability to capture the influence on such policy choices of changing circumstances, more so than a simple cross-sectional test. Conversely, if accounting policy choices are not independent between periods, pooling over time can overstate significance levels of statistical tests. The nature of Anderson and Zimmer's data makes the impact indeterminate. However, even under an extreme assumption, pre-regulation evidence remains significant at conventional levels.     

DETERMINANTS OF ACCOUNTING POLICY CHOICE IN THE AUSTRALIAN PROPERTY INDUSTRY: A PORTFOLIO APPROACH

The objective of this research is to explain accounting policy choice in the Australian property industry by reference to costly contracting theory. This paper makes three departures from the predominant literature. First, instead of focusing on a single policy choice, it focuses on a portfolio of 15 choices. Second, instead of measuring each policy choice dichotomously, it measures the dollar effect of each policy choice. Finally, the research focuses on the impact of policy choices on owners' equity as well as income. The results confirm the importance of compensation arrangements as a determinant of accounting policy choice but fail to provide evidence that debt constraints or political costs are significant determinants of accounting policy choice. These results suggest that including property firms in a more heterogeneous sample may reduce the power of tests on the debt constraints and political costs hypotheses. More generally (when compared to previous research) the results suggest that the determinants of policy choice are likely to be industry specific.     

人民币汇率趋势的中长期分析:博弈模型

人民币汇率的走势是目前众多的学者及国外投资者极为关注的焦点问题.为此,本文运用博弈论,把外国投资者和中国政府看作针对外资流动和人民币汇率变动的博弈双方,建立完全信息重复博弈模型分析双方的行为.作者试图从博弈角度出发说明人民币维持汇率稳定的条件是具备的,但必须让外资方认识到:保持汇率稳定并不只是中国政府的需要,而是对双方都有利的必然选择,否则中国政府会处于被动地位,反而不利于维持人民币汇率稳定.据此,作者提出公开信息披露使公众尤其是外资方了解双方的得益情况、对外资企业区别对待以及适时调整汇率政策等项对策.     

对资金汇划清算系统下备付金的变化分析

为探索资金汇划清算系统下资金调度的有效方法,作者分析了影响备付金变化的因素和资金流向流量的变化情况,通过掌握资金营运规律,合理控制备付金的存放水平,以达到确保支付和提高效益的目的.结果表明,新系统开通后清算行备付金除包括原有的库存现金和在中央银行存款外,还包括系统内备付金(包含在总行和省行的备付金存款).在计算备付率时还应包括同业存放款项的因素.资金汇划清算系统开通以来,我部备付金呈现出大幅波动的态势,备付金的存放水平及变化状况主要受经营环境、经营规模、业务种类等多种因素的影响.本文最后还对备付金存放额度和备付金管理提出了具体的对策建议.     

关于利率市场化进程中人民币贷款定价的探讨

自1996年人民币存贷款八次降息以来,商业银行的利差空间逐步缩小,与此同时,优质企业对贷款下浮的需求越来越强烈,商业银行从风险管理和盈利考虑,探讨贷款定价与利率市场化问题.如何根据本行实际情况进行合理的贷款定价成为营销中面临的具体问题.本文通过实证分析银行贷款利率下浮情况及其对收益变动的影响,提出了贷款定价的设想:首先进行整体贷款定价,明确利率浮动范围;然后进行单笔贷款定价,有效控制浮动利率的贷款结构,将综合贷款利率控制在整体贷款目标利率范围内.另外,作者还对如何通过定量指标和定性指标相结合的标准化利率浮动评分体系确定单笔贷款定价进行了探讨.