Statistics, ethics and probiotica

Ethical issues involved in the design of the ‘PROPATRIA’ probiotica trial are discussed. This randomized clinical trial appeared to be well conducted according to accepted good practices. The finding that the treatment was actually rather harmful, and that despite this, and despite a built‐in interim analysis, the trial was not stopped earlier, led to strong criticism in the media. I argue that ‘accepted good practices’ need to be reconsidered in the light of this experience. First, a much stronger distinction needs to be recognized between the immediate interests of the patients being treated in the trial and the interests of future patients of future doctors elsewhere. Secondly, it is in the interests of future patients that well‐conducted clinical trials are accepted by society. As it is unavoidable that an occasional trial will result in an unpredicted severely negative outcome, ethical screening committees must ensure that those performing a trial can never be accused of putting the interest of ‘science’ above the interest of their own patients when such ‘accidents’ happen. There are two consequences of this. First, the design of a trial should also explicitly lead to minimizing the number of patients who are treated by the researchers with a potentially seriously harmful medicine. Secondly, the disadvantages of triple‐blinding far outweigh the advantages. Although it might at best only have saved a few lives if the PROPATRIA trial been re‐designed with these issues in mind, I argue that the scientific value of the trial would not have been significantly reduced; the damage to medical research, and hence to future patients, would have been substantially less. Closer inspection of the data from the PROPATRIA trial brings a new and quite unexpected failing to light. The decision for stopping the trial early was accidentally based on the one‐sided test looking in the wrong direction, partly through the inadequacy of the output of the statistical package, SPSS and partly through lack of statistical expertise on the part of the users. If the envisaged one‐sided stopping rule had been used correctly, the trial would in fact have been terminated at the time of the interim analysis ‘for futility’; it was at this moment highly unlikely that a significant end‐result in favour of probiotica was going to be attained. The decision to continue the trial was a result of looking at the test statistic ‘in the wrong direction’. In effect, the trial was continued because there was still a good chance to show that probiotica is actually very harmful. I recommend that data‐monitoring committees should always be advised by a professional statistician, who is not blinded to the treatment allocation.     

物流货物损害赔偿中的保价条款研究

物流公司的托运单中常约定有保价条款,在货物发生毁损灭失时因保价条款发生的纠纷时有发生。文中基于对保价条款的性质和效力进行探讨,论证保价条款存在的合理性,并探讨特定情形下保价条款应予排除适用以及排除适用后物流公司承担的损害赔偿责任应以其可预期的损害为限。     

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY LITIGATION ACTIVITY IN THE USA

Abstract.  Brand names or trademarks carry incredible economic power and prestige. There is increasing recognition by world bodies that intellectual property (IP), whether manifested in patents, trademarks, copyrights or trade secrets, is highly valuable and must be protected through robust IP enforcement. The USA is an interesting natural laboratory as patent, trademark and copyright litigation battles have been raging domestically for some time. The paper discusses the four main forms of IP assets, the legal remedies that are available to enforce the property rights inherent in each type of IP asset, the basic damages theory relating to each form of IP, and how damages may be calculated when each type of asset is presumed to be infringed. The increased recognition of the value of IP has led to stronger enforcement of IP protection, an increase in IP litigation, and growing policy actions that are focused on how that protection should be manifested. An empirical analysis of how the IP litigation activity in the USA has changed over time is also presented.     

Testing log-linear models with inequality constraints: a comparison of asymptotic, bootstrap, and posterior predictive p-values

An important aspect of applied research is the assessment of the goodness-of-fit of an estimated statistical model. In the analysis of contingency tables, this usually involves determining the discrepancy between observed and estimated frequencies using the likelihood-ratio statistic. In models with inequality constraints, however, the asymptotic distribution of this statistic depends on the unknown model parameters and, as a result, there no longer exists an unique p -value. Bootstrap p -values obtained by replacing the unknown parameters by their maximum likelihood estimates may also be inaccurate, especially if many of the imposed inequality constraints are violated in the available sample. We describe the various problems associated with the use of asymptotic and bootstrap p -values and propose the use of Bayesian posterior predictive checks as a better alternative for assessing the fit of log-linear models with inequality constraints.     

Intangible Economy and its Implications for Statistics and Statisticians*

This paper presents an interpretation of major changes affecting the modern economy. Our postulate is that the defining trend is the shift to the intangible. The source of economic value and wealth is no longer the production of material goods but the creation and manipulation of dematerialised content. The logic of dematerialisation is pervasive and ubiquitous and affects all sectors and activities. It profoundly transforms economic relationships and interactions, the ways firms and markets are organised and transactions are carried out. It is also unsettling, to the extent that it runs squarely against some of the key tenets of the conventional logic of economics. The intangible economy raises a whde series of measurement issues. More fundamentally, it changes the role, the function, and the perception of economic measurement data. Official agencies no longer have the monopoly of economic data: a lively and diversified measurement and monitoring industry has emerged. Statisticians need to undertake a comprehensive appraisal of their business. Adaptingto the new environment will require major changes in three key areas: conceptual foundations, modus operandi and temporal outlook. If measurement systems are to capture the essence of the economy of today and tomorrow, intangibles have to move from the periphery to the core of these systems.     

中国国民经济若干指标季节波动的方向数据统计分析

本文应用方向数据统计方法分析1998～2005年货运量、居民消费价格总指数、社会消费品零售总额、出口总额和进口总额以及1999～2005年工业增加值等指标的月度数据。通过均匀性检验和Von-Mises分布检验确定分布类型,分析不同分布类型下经济指标的波动特征,从理论上探讨季节波动的成因。指出有良性规律的季节波动是实现既稳定又较快经济增长的保证。     

连续刚构桥病害及处理措施

近年来,大跨度预应力混凝土连续刚构桥梁在我国得到了较快的发展,但在运营过程中相继出现了种种病害。文章研究探讨了大跨度预应力混凝土连续刚构桥梁的典型病害类型及成因,并在此基础上,给出了相应的处理措施。     

Market‐oriented institutions and policies and economic growth: A critical survey

Abstract.  This paper surveys recent evidence suggesting that market‐oriented institutions and policies are strongly related to economic growth, focusing on studies using the economic freedom (EF) indicator of the Fraser Institute. This index is critically discussed. Also various serious shortcomings of empirical studies using this index are identified. Nevertheless, there are strong indications that liberalization, i.e. an increase in the EF index, stimulates economic growth. This paper also reviews studies on the determinants of EF. Political liberalization is often found to enhance economic liberalization, whereas there is less evidence for causality running in the other direction.     

中美两国经济实力与潜力的比较分析

改革开放以来,经过30多年的发展,中国已重新成为全球经济大国之一。本文利用C-D生产函数和索洛增长模型对中国中长期经济发展进行预测,在国内外研究成果的基础上对美国中长期经济发展进行预测,探讨了在不同情况下中美两国经济的对比分析和追及问题。本文预测结果表明,中国经济只要保持平稳增长,将在2030年前实现多个目标：一是GDP总量超过美国;二是人均GDP超过1.7万美元;三是人均国民总收入接近高收入国家行列;四是商品零售额、商品进口额等宏观指标赶上美国。     

Use of Statistics in the Monetary Policy of the Czech National Bank: The Case of a Country in Transition

In the presented text the authors judge the importance of statistics in the monetary policy of the Czech National Bank (CNB) over the course of the economic transformation process, with particular consideration of changing statistical needs and the possibilities and limits of statistical data exploitation in the monetary analyses. The importance of statistics lies on the level of collection and processing of statistical information and on the level of use of statistical methods to analyse data. Since the start of the 1990s the requirements for statistics were significantly influenced by monetary policy. In the period 1990–1997, monetary targeting was the primary influential factor. Since 1998, the monetary policy is influenced by inflation targeting. Statistical priorities switched from monetary data to economy and financial market data. Much progress has been made in the use of statistical methods for analysing data. Statistics available at present cover the CNB's standard monetary-policy requirements and are on par with those in developed countries. Its further development will reflect the standard changes taking place in the more advanced countries.     

从统计学科的发展看统计教育改革趋势

要培养新型的21世纪的人才,统计教育必须要高瞻远瞩。本文从统计学的发展浅谈一下统计教育急需改革的几个方面。     

Statistics and the Modern Student

The introductory statistics course has traditionally targeted consumers of statistics with the intent of producing a citizenry capable of a critical analysis of basic published statistics. More recently, statistics educators have attempted to centre the intro course on real data, in part to motivate students and in part to create a more relevant course. The success of this approach is predicated on providing data that the students see as real and relevant. Modern students, however, have a different view of data than did students of 10 or even 5 years ago. Modern statistics courses must adjust to the fact that students’ first exposure to data occurs outside the academy.     

Firm-network characteristics and economic robustness to natural disasters

This article proposes a theoretical framework to investigate economic robustness to exogenous shocks such as natural disasters. It is based on a dynamic model that represents a regional economy as a network of production units through the disaggregation of sector-scale input-output tables. Results suggest that disaster-related output losses depend on direct losses heterogeneity and on the economic network structure. Two aggregate indexes - concentration and clustering - appear as important drivers of economic robustness, offering opportunities for robustness-enhancing strategies. Modern industrial organization seems to reduce short-term robustness in a trade-off against higher efficiency in normal times.     

经济制度和我国经济增长效率的实证研究

本文根据经济制度和经济增长作用模型,利用一国经济制度和经济增长指标的面板数据（Panel Data）,对经济制度和我国经济增长的作用机制进行实证研究.结果表明,近年来我国经济制度对经济增长不仅是重要而且是有效率的,并且政府对当前的经济增长起着决定性的作用.同时,我国宏观经济治理结构模型表明,我国经济增长存在最佳的经济制度安排,以经济增长为目标的政府治理能够实现我国最优的经济增长.     

2010～2011年中国经济增长回顾与展望

中国经济2010年在全球经济缓慢复苏中保持了稳定增长的态势,增速相对较快.2010年面对的主要不利国际环境是世界经济复苏乏力,发达国家经济增长缓慢,贸易保护主义盛行,对我国经济造成了一定的外部冲击.国内主要问题是通货膨胀压力的持续上升,房地产市场泡沫的积极调控以及结构调整的不断深化.2011年是中国经济"十二五"计划的开局之年,面对许多复杂的国内外形势,中国经济总体运行仍存在许多挑战.然而,我国宏观经济政策已经针对2011年经济运行中主要面对的问题作出了积极的部署,预计2011年中国经济总体运行仍较稳定,结构调整稳步推进.     

Competitive On-line Statistics

A radically new approach to statistical modelling, which combines mathematical techniques of Bayesian statistics with the philosophy of the theory of competitive on-line algorithms, has arisen over the last decade in computer science (to a large degree, under the influence of Dawid's prequential statistics). In this approach, which we call competitive on-line statistics, it is not assumed that data are generated by some stochastic mechanism; the bounds derived for the performance of competitive on-line statistical procedures are guaranteed to hold (and not just hold with high probability or on the average). This paper reviews some results in this area; the new material in it includes the proofs for the performance of the Aggregating Algorithm in the problem of linear regression with square loss.     

Survey as a Source of Statistics and Factors Affecting the Quality of Survey Statistics

Survey-taking, which normally involves sampling, has become a major data collection vehicle along with other means of obtaining raw data such as administrative systems and systems of special returns. This paper discusses the major aspects that should be addressed in conducting sample surveys. The proper treatment of these aspects is essential in ensuring production of quality statistics.     

Random Sets: Models and Statistics

This paper surveys aspects of the theory of random closed sets, focussing on issues of practical and current interest. First, some historical remarks on this part of probability theory are made, where the important role of Georges Matheron is emphasized. Then, fundamental characteristics of the distribution of random closed sets are introduced. The very important Boolean model serves as an example for discussing mathematical and statistical problems. A number of further models is then considered, namely excursion sets of random fields, the system of edges of the Poisson Voronoi tessellation and various random systems of non-overlapping spheres. Finally, some ideas of particle statistics are presented, including some models of random compact sets.     

砂岩储层酸化常见损害及解决方法探讨

根据近几年注水井酸化实践,本文分析总结了砂岩储层在酸化前及酸化过程中的常见损害及其处理方法,提出了预防酸岩反应过程中形成二次损害的对策,预防酸化过程中形成新沉淀是提高酸化效果的一个重要方面。     

Environmental Statistics: Current and Future

Since 1900, statistics has prospered and established for itself a central place in science and technology, as can be seen from the wide application of its methods to almost all facets of life. The primary concern of statistics is to develop a logical and efficient system for information acquisition and analysis that is geared towards broad applications. Such a system has its roots and extensions in case studies from many scientific disciplines and in the collaboration between statisticians and other scientists. During the past three decades statisticians have become actively involved in the development and use of quantitative methods to understand and solve environmental problems. These activities are commonly called Environmetrics. In this paper we review the main features of current Environmetrics research and outreach activities. The paper is structured around typical examples drawn mainly from water quality and climate change to illustrate the type of problems involved, the statistical approaches used to address them, and the new statistical methods required for their solution. In addition we shall also briefly describe efforts made at the international level to link the statisticians working in the field together and with environmental scientists.