WEALTH HOLDINGS AND POVERTY STATUS IN THE U.S.

Families below the poverty line are better off in terms of wealth than income. In 1962, the ratio of mean income between families below and above the poverty line is 0.19 and the ratio of mean wealth is 0.29. The corresponding ratios for 1983 are 0.16 and 0.19. On average, the elderly poor are better off in terms of wealth than the younger poor, particularly relative to their own income. However, the poor have become worse off in terms of wealth between 1962 and 1983, when their real income grew by 6 percent and their real wealth declined by 11 percent. The inclusion of pension and social security wealth in the household portfolio narrows the wealth gap between the poor and non-poor, particularly for families under 65 years of age. Alternative poverty rates are also calculated based on the inclusion of annuity flows from wealth in household income. The reduction in the poverty rate between 1962 and 1983, from 21 to 15 percent on the basis of the official rate, is considerably lower with these alternative definitions.     

THE ECONOMICS AND POLITICS OF INDUSTRIAL POLICY: SOME LESSONS FROM THE U.S. AND ABROAD

The accelerating United States trade deficit has again focused widespread political attention on industrial policy issues. However, given the breadth and complexity of the industrial policy issues, we can be confident that strengthening the U.S. international trade position will not be sufficient to quell concern over this area of economic policy.     

INFLATION TARGETING AND THE STATIONARITY OF INFLATION: NEW RESULTS FROM AN ESTAR UNIT ROOT TEST

In this paper, we examine the time series properties of inflation in seven countries that have adopted inflation targeting. Unlike previous studies, we utilize a non‐linear mean reverting adjustment mechanism for inflation and we discover that, although deviations of inflation from the target can exhibit a region of non‐stationary behaviour, overall they are stationary indicating successful targeting implementation.     

HOUSEHOLD NEEDS AND POVERTY: WITH APPLICATION TO SPAIN AND THE U.K.

We examine the sensitivity of U.K.-Spanish poverty comparisons to variations in the dependence of equivalence scales on household size and composition, using evidence from national household budget surveys. We sum up these comparisons using subjective confidence levels. Taking into account the dissimilarities in the distribution of incomes and needs across countries, we find, inter alia , that although the poor are typically more numerous in Spain than in Britain, the actual headcount differences may vary by up to 10 percent of the population when needs allowances are altered, even when kept the same across the two countries. Comparisons of poverty composition across the two countries are also very sensitive to the choice of equivalence scale parameters. Generally, however, the proportion of single adults among the poor is much less important in Spain than in Britain, the reverse being true for households with three or more adults.     

MEASURING THE PERFORMANCE OF A COMMUNIST COMMAND ECONOMY: AN ASSESSMENT OF THE CIA ESTIMATES FOR THE U.S.S.R.

There are major methodological and practical problems in comparing the performance of capitalist and communist economies. They have been most carefully analysed for the former Soviet Union, for which there was a huge research input, mainly by the CIA. The CIA effort had considerable merit, particularly in assessing Soviet rates of growth. Unfortunately, it was terminated in 1991, partly because it suffered from unduly harsh criticism, partly because its political relevance waned. However, the CIA archives remain an important source for the study of comparative economic growth. It would be extremely useful if they were opened to scholars, a serious loss if they were destroyed.     

AN ECONOMIC CORE SYSTEM AND THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS MODULE FOR THE NETHERLANDS

In this article the authors discuss some elements of the structure of an overall integrating system of economy-related statistics. First of all attention is paid to the core of such a system. Next, the various types of modules which could supplement this core are described. Modules with a social connotation are discussed with the help of the Socio-economic Accounts which have been developed recently in the Netherlands. Finally, the link between the Socio-economic Accounts and the National Accounts Core System is addressed and numerically illustrated.     

湘西武陵山贫困地区脱贫与发展

湘西武陵山贫困地区是国家重点扶持的18个集中连片贫困地区之一和少数民族聚居区,加快这一地区脱贫与发展,对缩小这一地区与全国的差距,保障国民经济可持续发展,实现国家的长治久安有重要意义.本文从分析这一地区贫困现状入手,研究了贫困的原因和面临的机遇与挑战,提出了加快脱贫与发展的规划设想与对策.     

COHABITATION AND THE MEASUREMENT OF CHILD POVERTY

We use 1990 U.S. Census of Population data to calculate what poverty rates would have been if cohabitors were treated in the same manner as married couples. We find that the official treatment of cohabiting partners as separate family units overstated the extent of poverty in 1989 among all children by about three percent. Only about 11 percent of the observed rise in child poverty between 1969 and 1989 would be eliminated if the Census Bureau made this change in its definition of the family. We estimate a logistic regression model of the likelihood that poor, cohabiting families with children would be reclassified as non-poor if the cohabitor's income were included in family income.     

THE MEASUREMENT OF HOUSING OUTPUT: U.S. AND SOVIET CASE STUDIES

This paper examines the measurement of the output of the Housing industry in real GNP accounts of the U.S., the Soviet Union, and selected OECD countries. These real GNP accounts make use of quite different Housing indexes, based on different types of data. This paper's major empirical finding is that the (measured) growth rate of Housing output can be extremely sensitive to the type of index used.
After reviewing the concept of housing quality, the paper presents U.S. and Soviet case studies. The BEA and the CIA do not use identical procedures to measure Housing output for the U.S. and the Soviet Union: the BEA measures many more aspects of housing quality improvements than the CIA does. This difference in the two agencies' procedures increases the growth rate of the US. Real Estate industry relative to the growth rate of the Soviet Housing industry. The idea behind the two case studies is to remeasure Housing output far the Soviet Union (U.S.) using an index that approximates the BEA (CIA) index. The purpose of these studies is the calculation of numerical magnitudes: to what degrees are the levels and growth rates of Housing sensitive to the type of index that is used. The calculations for the U.S. are useful because they show the important role of housing quality growth in the U.S., and because they make the magnitudes reported for the Soviet Union more credible. The Soviet case study provides numerical support for the proposition that the post-WWII growth rate of Soviet housing quality has been considerable and exceeds the growth rate implicit in the CIA output figures.     

TROPICS AND INCOME: A LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF THE U.S. STATES

A simple regression of personal income per capita for the U.S. states is estimated from cross-section data for the years 1929, 1950, 1970 and 1990 with each state's distance from the equator as the regressor. While proximity to the equator is noted to have a sizable adverse effect on income, elasticity of personal income per capita with respect to tropicality shows a steady and somewhat dramatic decline during this 60-year period. The estimates indicate that the disadvantage of tropicality is not immutable, and need not imply a developmental determinism.     

COMPETITIVE NEED LIMITS AND THE U.S. GENERALIZED SYSTEM OF PREFERENCE

The United States uses competitive need limits to deny Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) treatment of imports from developing countries. The analysis here estimates in two ways the effect of competitive need limits on GSP imports. First, it uses ex post trade data to determine the effect on import values and shares. Second, it combines an ex ante model with trade and elasticity data to estimate the effect of competitive need limits. Results indicate that competitive need limits reduce affected imports by 10 to 17%. Benefits from this import reduction accrue almost exclusively to U.S. import competing firms.     

AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF COMPETING EXPLANATIONS FOR THE MIDTERM GAP IN THE U.S. HOUSE*

Previous empirical analyses of the midterm gap have been unreliable for two reasons: the limited degrees of freedom inherent in national-level time series data, and the failure to adequately control for competing explanations. By using district-level panel data, this paper is able to circumvent those weaknesses. Both withdrawn coattails and systematic presidential punishment at the midterm play an important role in explaining the observed midterm gap. Economic factors have a somewhat smaller impact. Evidence of systematic punishment of incumbent presidents in on-year elections is also observed.     

THE FUTURE OF THE U.S. DEFENSE INDUSTRY

Defense contractors in the United States face a painful choice between downsizing or investing in new high-risk commercial ventures. Past experience reveals numerous failed efforts to penetrate commercial markets and few, if any, successes.
The capabilities required to succeed in civilian business are fundamentally different from those needed to design and produce weapon systems. Defense firms and defense divisions of diversified corporations lack adequate knowledge of commercial products, production methods, advertising and distribution, financial approaches, and customer demand.
Given the outlook for a sustained decline in U.S. military spending, the author advises companies catering to military markets to cut their costs by reducing excess capacity. Smaller but more competitive positions can be achieved through restructuring, mergers, sales of assets, and, if necessary, closing down unneeded facilities. Firms that ignore the pleas for "conversion" and do not dissipate their assets in civilian markets alien to them stand the best chance of surviving during a period of reduced military demand.     

GENDER, POVERTY AND THE INTRA-HOUSEHOLD DISTRIBUTION OF RESOURCES

Most empirical studies of poverty assume an equal sharing of resources between all household members. There is a growing body of research indicating that this assumption is not realistic. This paper explores how the unequal sharing of resources could potentially affect the measurement of poverty. Simulations based on micro-data from two countries (Italy and the U.S.A.) are carried out under the assumption that women "lose" and men and children "gain" because of unequal sharing in the household. Our findings suggest that if there is significant intra-household inequality of this type, as some writers have suggested, then conventional methods of poverty measurement will likely to lead to a serious under-estimate (over-estimate) of the incidence and intensity of female (male) poverty.     

DIFFERENCES IN THE MEASUREMENT OF WEALTH, WEALTH INEQUALITY AND WEALTH COMPOSITION OBTAINED FROM ALTERNATIVE U.S. WEALTH SURVEYS

Since household wealth surveys have been widely used to study saving and other issues, it is important to examine the reliability of the various survey estimates of wealth. In this paper the authors assess the quality characteristics of the National Longitudinal Survey of Mature Men and the Retirement History Survey, as compared to the 1983 Survey of Consumer Finances. We find that the NLS and especially the RHS underreport wealth and wealth concentration. The underestimates of wealth held in the form of common stock, business equity, and investment real estate equity are substantial. The principal problem lies in underrepresentation of both tails of the wealth and income distributions, with the consequences of underrepresenting the upper tail being especially serious for wealth measurement. We examine several potential reasons for the underrepresentation.     

中国在业人口非均衡分布及合理性评价

2005年中国在业人口总体、第一、三产业人口分布相对不均衡,第二产业人口分布较不均衡。1982—2005年集中指数变动表明,在业人口总体和第一、三产业人口保持相对不均衡的分布格局,第二产业人口分布由相对不均衡跃升为较不均衡。相对于1982年,在业人口总体和第一产业人口分布的非均衡性下降,第二、三产业人口分布的非均衡性提升。2000年资源因素、经济因素和综合因素的在业人口分布的相对偏差度在1%以下,东、中、西部各种因素的偏差系数在9%以下,南、北方各种因素的偏差系数在4%以下,表明中国在业人口非均衡分布具有内在合理性;资源因素和经济因素对中国在业人口非均衡分布影响的贡献度为65对35。     

TRENDS IN INEQUALITY USING CONSUMPTION-EXPENDITURES: THE U.S. FROM 1960 TO 1993

While much of the evidence suggests that there was an increase in inequality in the U.S. during the 1980s, the reasons are less evident. Using the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey data, we find that the inequality of consumption-expenditures, as well as the inequality of other measures of resources, widened considerably during the 1980s. While previous studies suggest that increasing inequality is mainly due to increases in within group inequality, we show that by decomposing inequality by the interaction of family type and education almost three-fourths of the increase in inequality is accounted for by changes in inequality between groups and by shifts in the population.     

THE NONPROFIT SECTOR OF THE U.S. ECONOMY: A METHODOLOGICAL STATEMENT

United States input-output accounts identify and measure the interrelationships between the various industries in the United States economy. However, these accounts do not identify nonprofit activities from their for-profit counterparts in the service-producing sector. This paper, prepared by Gabriel Rudney and Paula Young, presents the methodology and summary data produced by disaggregating the service-producing industries to identify separately nonprofit activities.
The input-output accounts for 1977 produced in this study include 107 industries, but in this paper the results are summarized into 14 industries showing only nonprofit and for-profit components. The GNP and total outputs in this study are consistent with the revised input-output accounts for 1977 prepared by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.     

COMPARISON OF THE PRODUCTIVITY LEVELS OF AUSTRIAN AND HUNGARIAN INDUSTRY: METHODS AND RESULTS

Cooperation between the Austrian and Hungarian central statistical offices in the field of industrial productivity has a history of two decades. The first comparison, carried out in 1965, was partly experimental in objective and nature. The second full scale survey took place a decade later in 1975. This was followed by a further study of about two years duration of the level of productivity and the factors influencing it in three sectors: food, metallurgy and engineering. For this study the three sectors were broken down into 31 sub-branches and nearly 400 product groups. An important and labour-intensive element of the comparisons was harmonization of the sector and product classification system; UN recommendations were increasingly helpful for this work, and relying upon them will be expedient also in the future.
In the decade under review the productivity advantage of Austrian industry increased, from about 40 percent in 1965 to an average 75 percent in 1975. The dispersion of sectoral productivity indices around the average value was significant in both years.
The similarity of the 1965 and 1975 comparisons offered an exceptional opportunity to examine the reliability of extrapolation. The investigations unambiguously demonstrated that extrapolation did not give reliable results for a period as long as ten years, primarily because of structural changes in production and changes in price weights.
The most important conclusion to be drawn from the investigation of the three selected branches is its extraordinary usefulness from the economic, political and methodological points of view. A further important conclusion is that the method of comparison must be selected in the light of an extensive consideration of the output and technological structure of the branches.     

REGIONAL ECONOMIC ACCOUNTING IN THE U.S. OFFICE OF BUSINESS ECONOMICS–AN APPRAISAL*

This paper discusses the conceptual framework in which regional economic accounts in the United States are viewed and the functions which those accounts serve. It points out that the major differences between regional and national accounts relate to factor returns to capital. First, returns to capital are extremely difficult, if not impossible, to measure meaningfully on a geographic basis. Secondly, because the capital market in the United States is a reasonably perfect one geographically, the return to capital that originates in a given region has little significance as either a stimulant or a constraint to production in that region. In terms of the functions of regional accounts, the point is made that whereas national economic accounts can aid economic decision-making in three general areas of policyallocation, distribution and stabilization—with perhaps greatest emphasis now placed on the last of these, regional accounts are most useful in matters relating to allocation and distribution. Information needed for the use of regional accounts in decision-making with regard to allocation and distribution problems is examined. Against these needs are placed an inventory of regional accounts which are available in the Regional Economics Division, Office of Business Economics. The available accounts are found to fall considerably short of those needed for allocation decisions. In contrast, regional accounts as presently constituted have much to offer as tools for analyzing the problems of regional economic distribution, although here too, much additional information is needed.