Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries and U.S. Treasury yields

Foreign official holdings of U.S. Treasuries increased from $400 billion in January 1994 to about $3 trillion in June 2010. Most of this growth is accounted for by a handful of emerging market economies that have been running large current account surpluses. These countries are channeling their savings through the official sector, which is then acquiring foreign exchange reserves. Any shift in policy to reduce their current account surpluses or dampen the rate of reserves accumulation would likely slow the pace of foreign official purchases of U.S. Treasuries. Would such a slowing of foreign official purchases of Treasury notes and bonds affect long-term Treasury yields? Most likely yes, and the effects appear to be large. By our estimates, if foreign official inflows into U.S. Treasuries were to decrease in a given month by $100 billion, 5-year Treasury rates would rise by about 40–60 basis points in the short run. But once we allow foreign private investors to react to the yield change induced by the shock to foreign official inflows, the long-run effect is about 20 basis points.     

Foreign bank lending in the U.S. during three U.S. recessions

We study whether foreign banks engaged in countercyclical lending in the United States during the 1990–1991, 2001, and 2007–2009 recessions. Aggregate lending by foreign banks increased in the 1990–91 recession and by domestic banks in the 2001 recession. Controlling for local GDP and unemployment, we show countercyclical lending by foreign branches in the 1990 recession and by foreign subsidiaries in the 2001 recession. In the 2008 recession, foreign branches and subsidiaries exhibited neither countercyclical nor procyclical lending. We conclude that foreign banks like domestic banks respond to local economic conditions; the foreign ownership is not a factor.     

美国市场形势好转

<正>美国劳工节过后,飓风给美国市场造成的沉闷 气氛似乎缓和。原油和汽油价格有所回落、股市强劲 上涨、灾区部分炼油厂即将恢复生产。但美国专家警 告说,能源市场的不确定因素仍然很多,油价上行的 可能依然大于下降。     

Official Demand for U.S. Debt: Implications for U.S. Real Rates

We estimate a structural term-structure model of U.S. real rates, where arbitrageurs accommodate demand pressures exerted by domestic and foreign official investors. Official demand affects rates by altering the aggregate price of duration risk, and thereby bond risk premiums. Although foreign central banks' demand contributed to reduce long-term real rates mainly in the years prior to the global-financial crisis, the Federal Reserve's demand lowered rates during the quantitative easing period. Overall, the two-factor model, augmented to account for changing liquidity conditions, offers a good representation of real rates during the 2001–16 period; however, we flag some caveats and possible extensions.     

小企业:美银行的新宠

如果说目前存在着对小企业的信贷紧缩,或者说银行在此业务上的竞争程度降低了,那绝不会是真的,尤其在那些大银行里."我不那么认为,"PNC(美国一个大金融财团-译者注)的CEO琼·古丽(Joan Gulley)说,"虽然存在紧缩开支的现象,但就整个环境来说还是充满竞争的."     

The U.S. listing gap

Relative to other countries, the U.S. now has abnormally few listed firms. This “U.S. listing gap” is consistent with a decrease in the net benefit of a listing for U.S. firms. Since the listing peak in 1996, the propensity to be listed is lower for all firm size categories and industries, the new list rate is low, and the delist rate is high. The high delist rate accounts for 46% of the listing gap and the low new list rate for 54%. The high delist rate is explained by an unusually high rate of acquisitions of publicly listed firms.     

U.S. International Equity Investment

Using a comprehensive data set of all U.S. investment in foreign equities, we find that the single most important determinant of the amount of U.S. investment a foreign firm receives is whether the firm cross‐lists on a U.S. exchange. Correcting for selection biases, cross‐listing leads to a doubling (or more) in U.S. investment, an impact greater than all other factors combined. Much of this increased U.S. investment is purchased in the foreign market, implying that the cross‐listing effect reflects something more fundamental about a firm than easier acquisition of its securities. We also demonstrate that cross‐listing is an important determinant of U.S. international investment at the country level and describe easy‐to‐implement methods for including a cross‐listing variable as an endogenous control.     

Do foreign purchases of U.S. stocks help the U.S. stock market?

This paper investigates the relationship between the U.S. S&P 500 stock market and purchases of U.S. corporation stocks by foreign investors. Estimations using monthly data from 1978:1 to 2008:7 under various methodologies show that, controlling for asset prices (interest rates and the yield curve) and inflation, purchases of U.S. stocks by foreign investors have a positive and statistically significant impact on the U.S. stock market performance. We also show that their relationship is time variant. In a global world, the demand-side variable captured by the foreign appetite for U.S. stocks attenuates the negative effects associated with the domestic forces.     

美元:霸权末路?

是谁,打开了潘多拉之盒 同第一季度相比,美国第二季度公布的经济数据虽也是好坏参半,并不乏重大利好,但此一时彼一时,市场的反映却有天壤之别,究其根本,则在于市场信心的转变.     

The cost of capital: U.S.-based multinational corporations versus U.S. domestic corporations

Using firm-level panel data, this paper examines whether the cost of capital (COC) differs significantly between U.S.-based multinational corporations (MNCs) and U.S. domestic corporations (DCs). The results suggest that U.S.-based MNCs have higher COC than U.S. DCs and that industry importantly influences COC. The study also finds that there is a significant time effect on COC, and the time effect follows the trend of the U.S. economic growth rate. Using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo approach, we estimate jointly cost of equity, cost of debt, and capital structure, and find that the higher cost of capital for MNCs is due mainly to their higher cost of equity and greater use of equity financing; the cost of debt financing does not differ significantly for MNCs versus DCs.     

Return on capital analysis: U.S.-based multinational corporations versus U.S. domestic corporations

We study the difference between U.S.-based multinational corporations (MNCs) and U.S. domestic corporations (DCs) in terms of management efficiency with return on capital as the measure of management efficiency. We use a fixed effect model to account for heterogeneity and/or the time-specific effect and find that MNCs have lower management efficiency than DCs, which holds after we control for the effects of firm size, GDP growth rate, and growth opportunity on management efficiency. One reason for the low efficiency is the MNCs’ inability to manage their assets well relative to DCs. We also find that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between return on capital and degree of internationalization, which implies an optimal degree of internationalization. Our result does not confirm the recently proposed three-stage model.     

美国“管理层讨论与分析”及对我国的借鉴

良好的公司治理结构是管理层诚实尽责披露信息的内在保证。对管理层己知的趋势和不确定性信息披露出现的问题，表面上是由于规则的漏洞，根源则在于公司治理不佳和诚信程度不高。……     

美国垃圾债券红火的背后

在美国企业债券市场上,垃圾债券获得了投资人的持续热捧,甚至正在酝酿新一轮的牛市行情。据《华尔街日报》的最新报道,今年前9个月,企业总共发行垃圾债券1720亿美元,创出了年度历史纪录;不仅如此,垃圾债券的价格也涨至2007年以来最高水平,接近金融危机中最低点的两倍。不过,面对着垃圾债券市场流入资金的不断膨胀,其凸显的泡沫特征也开始引发人们的担忧。     

进军中国澳门的美国赌业大亨

何厚铧立意要开放澳门的博彩业经营权,引入国际财团 在人们的印象中,中国的澳门特别行政区与"声名狼藉"的美国拉斯维加斯一样,除了赌博,似乎没有别的产业.今年2月,澳门地区政府向全球公开招标博彩业经营权,三张牌照中,除了原澳门赌业大王何鸿燊获得其中一张外,其余两张均落入美国拉斯维加斯赌业大亨手中.对于出乎意外的揭标结果,人们想知道的是,澳门政府究竟想把特区引向何方?     

美国证监会和小企业—小企业筹资及相应联邦证券法规指南

解答小企业疑问的几条途径 SEC试图通过它(所制定)的规则和监管来满足小企业的要求。它也会通过电话、信件或者电子邮件来回答小企业的问题，提供非正式的指导。SEC提供了很多渠道，以方便小企业……     

活跃的美国社区金融

社区金融活动在美国的经济金融运行中占据了相当重要的地位,这些以社区银行为代表的区域性的金融机构在大状银行的市场竞争压力下获得了活跃的发展空间.     

关于美国次贷危机的思考

2008年3月,美国著名投资银行雷曼兄弟宣布破产倒闭,标志着美国次贷危机正式爆发,进而像多米诺骨牌一样,深度影响全球主要经济体的经济发展和金融秩序.     

战后美国经济周期再考察

二战后美国经济周期波动发生显著变化。相比二战之前,美国经济周期扩张期拉长,衰退期缩短,二者之间形成剪刀差。经济周期长度、扩张期跨度和紧缩期跨度的离散度远远大于战前。二战后至今,美国经济中周期出现(朱格拉周期)呈拉长的趋势,扩张期远远长于衰退期,中周期(朱格拉周期)和短周期(基钦周期)的波幅经历了从小到大的阶段性变化。     

谁将挑战美元

1976年以来,美元作为国际货币的作用逐渐减弱,一些新兴市场经济体的货币开始登上历史舞台。而美元作为国际货币的地位并没有发生直线下降,尤其是2010年以来,美元在各国中央银行外汇储备中的占比止跌企稳,在外汇市场交易中的占比也开始回升。目前来看,欧元和人民币均难以替代美元。但未来美元仍存在被其他货币超越和取代的可能。