哈尔滨市城乡居民主要副食品消费需求预测

副食品在人们的食物结构中占有重要地位，分析和预测城乡居民主要 副食品的消费需求动态，已成为社会化再生产有计划按比例协调发展的重要依据。本文依据1980－1988年哈尔滨市统计年鉴的数据，运用数学分析方法，预测1990－2000年哈尔滨市城乡居民主要副食品的需求变化。     

我国农村消费结构和需求热点变动趋势研究

从我国农村居民1985－1998年消费结构的实际变动趋势看,表现出结构变动不断升高的现象。在2001－2010年这10年中,我国农村居民消费结构变动将由前一阶段的平面扩张缓变期进入升级换代的剧变期。“千元级”家电将成为农民消费新热点,但大规模的消费热潮难以形成。如果实行积极的城经秀一体化经济发展政策,拓展农民就业空间,扩大增加收入的途径,提高农民收入,农村消费将成为将拉动我国经济增长的重要力量。     

当前农民消费缘何热不起来

农村消费需求不旺，农民消费的热点仍未形成，直接制约农民消费的因素有以下五个方面。１－农民当期收入减少。农民收入在近几年增长趋缓的情况下，１９９９年一季度有所下滑。据湖北省枝江市百户抽样调查结果显示，一季度农民现金收入比上年同期减少１６％。农民当期收入减少了，即期购买力就要下降。２－农民预期收入下降。由于受暖冬、干旱气候影响，１９９９年部分地方夏粮、夏油、水果生产已面临减产的压力。据枝江市调查，该市夏粮将减产３成，夏油将减产４成，“洲梨”和柑桔也将减产１—２成。加上上年部分地方洪涝灾害的影响，也减…     

回归模型中异方差问题的处理

在拟合首都居民消费结构变动的回归模型时,由于分析不同时期居民收入的消费支出水平出现了异方差问题,对拟合的回归模型用等级相关检验和戈德菲尔特－奎特检验,结果也说明了异方差性,因此,提出对原模型进行变换,或用加权最小二乘法消除其异方差,保证了模型的适用性。这些方法可为同类经济变量的预测提供参考。     

收入增长与农村稻米消费的演变

收入增长与农村稻米消费的演变黄季一、研究背景稻米是我国居民的主要粮食，它为国民提供了约４０％的总热量需要。除了西北、华北和东北的大部分地区以外，稻米是我国大部分地区的主食，为南方稻区的居民提供了６０％－８０％的热量需要。稻米不仅是我国居民的主食，也是...     

农村消费倾向分析

一、农村消费的总体状况 进入九十年代以后,农村消费大致分为两个阶段：一是 90年代中期以前,农村消费总额占全社会消费品零售总额的比例从 1990年的 48 5％下降到 1995年的 43％;二是 95年以后,其消费额大致在 43％－ 44％左右徘徊,近期仍有下降趋势。从农村人均纯收入的角度看, 1990年为 686元, 1995年达到 1578元,面 90年代中期以后,收入增幅逐渐放慢, 1996年为 1926元, 1997年为 2090元,生活消费支出的增幅也随之放慢。 1990年 585元, 1995年为 310元, 1996年为 1572元, 1997年为 1617元。不同地区的农民收入分化明显…     

豆油价格后市上涨乏力

进入7月下旬以来，国内豆油市场价格呈现平稳趋势，但市场交易没有明显放大。目前大连市场二级豆油价格一般在5290元／吨，比中旬下降0.6％；山东市场豆油价格一般在5230－5250元／吨，与中旬变化不大；浙江市场豆油价格一般在5260元／吨，比中旬下降0．8％；江苏市场二级豆油价格一般在5300元／吨，与中旬变化不大；     

从可持续发展的视角透析消费

传统的消费观念是建立在单一的经济发展的基础之上的,传统消费尽管在人类文明进程中的历史作用巨大,但传统消费观念、方式的不科学性对环境影响也是难以弥补的。可持续消费凸现出消费的公正性,从可持续发展的角度,提出了消费可持续发展的调控对策。     

应启动中层收入阶层消费

如何启动上海的消费 ,拉动上海的经济增长 ,成为上海经济工作的热点之一。我们认为 ,必须率先拉动作为市场消费主力的上海中层收入阶层消费 ,取得扩散效应 ,才能尽快地达到预期的目标。一、上海中层收入阶层对发展需求具有较大的满足欲 ,并具有良好的满足发展需求的收入条件（一）中层收入阶层是社会消费群体中最具消费潜力的群体目前上海的中层收入阶层有很高的消费欲望和消费潜力 ,据统计资料显示 ,１９９０—１９９８年 ,上海中层收入居民家庭人均提取存款年均增长幅度高于全市平均的１４ ９ % ,居所有阶层之首。而同期的的储蓄存款在居…     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Agrarian Poverty,Nutrition and Economic Class – A Study of Gujarat,India

This paper analyses poverty and calorific undernourishment in the Indian state of Gujarat, where high and market‐led industrial growth has resulted in rapid economic improvement. The study is carried out through a combination of secondary and survey‐based data. We conclude that the neoliberal agenda of uncontrolled, outward‐looking growth has not resulted in significant reduction of poverty or malnourishment in rural areas. Furthermore, while land ownership is officially used as a proxy for wealth distribution, class position appears a better predictor of poverty status in the rural areas than landownership per se. At the policy level, there is a need to revive the agrarian economy and create new non‐agricultural assets, and the primary focus in the state must shift to the distribution of created assets rather than a single‐minded focus on growth.     

Does sustainable agricultural growth require a system of innovation? Evidence from Ghana and Burkina Faso

This paper tests the ‘systems of innovation’ hypothesis for a selection of crops in Ghana and Burkina Faso that have shown significant growth in production over an approximately 20-year period. The question is whether such growth can only occur if supported by a system of innovation. Using two indicators (a common understanding on objectives and priorities, and a high level of interactivity), we find little evidence for the existence of anything that might be considered a high functioning system of innovation.     

Local impacts of industrial tree plantations: An empirical analysis in Indonesia across plantation types

The values ascribed to industrial tree plantations are often controversial. Hence knowledge of their perceived impacts is important for improving their integration in rural landscapes. In 2016 we conducted household surveys with 606 respondents living in villages adjacent to acacia, teak and pine plantations across three islands in Indonesia (Java, Borneo, Sumatra). Results show that perceptions toward pine and teak plantations tend to differ from those toward acacia pulpwood plantations in several ways. Pine and teak plantations are perceived to have a higher number and variety of benefits and services, a higher number of positive impacts, a better environmental record, and to present more opportunities to local people for use of plantation land and products for improving rural livelihoods. In addition, we find that villagers around acacia pulpwood plantations tend to seek economic development and infrastructure to open up remote areas, yet their expectations were often only partially met. Recommendations from our analysis include: the role of the State in plantations must be clarified and potentially reinforced; the role of institutions as intermediaries is fundamental; and contributions by communities to design of management plans should be accommodated.     

Upstream demand for water use by new tree plantations imposes externalities on downstream irrigated agriculture and wetlands*

Large‐scale tree plantations in high rainfall upstream areas can reduce fresh water inflows to river systems, thereby imposing external costs on downstream irrigation, stock and domestic water users and wetland interests. We take the novel approach of expressing all benefits and costs of establishing plantations in terms of $ per gigalitre (GL) of water removed annually from river flows, setting upstream demands on the same basis as downstream demands. For the Macquarie Valley, a New South Wales sub‐catchment of Australia’s Murray‐Darling Basin, we project changes in land and water use and changes in economic surpluses under two policy settings: without and with a policy requiring permanent water entitlements to be purchased from downstream parties, before plantation establishment. Without the policy, and given a high stumpage value for trees ($70/m³), upstream gains in economic surplus projected from expanding plantations are $639 million; balanced against $233 million in economic losses by downstream irrigators and stock and domestic water users for a net gain of $406 million, but 345 GL lower mean annual environmental flows. With the policy, smaller gains in upstream economic surplus from trees ($192 million), added to net downstream gains ($138 million) from sale of water, result in gains of $330 million with no reduction in environmental flows. Sustaining the 345 GL flow for a $76 million (406–330) reduction in gains to economic surplus may be seen to cost only $0.22 million/GL; but this is much lower than the market value of the first units of that water to agriculture and forestry.     

Underpayment of Small Producers of Coffee and Cocoa in Sierra Leone

Fieldwork shows that many Sierra Leonean producers do not receive the official producer price for their coffee and cocoa, due to the concentration of buying stations, credit relations, the small quantities offered for sale, and the lack of marketing knowledge of the numerous and unorganized farmers. To the traders underpayment may seem economically justifiable to a certain extent, but to the farmers it means poverty and debt. A new village marketing centre project aims at remedying this situation and has already led to higher prices. Although no longer allowed to take their "just" share from the producers, traders are still willing to deal with the new centres.     

Malaria incidence and agricultural efficiency in Uganda

The cost of accessing healthcare can be a major determinant of disease prevalence, which in turn has short‐ and long‐term welfare implications on poor households. In response, governments in developing countries often resort to subsidizing the cost of drugs, which, while perhaps easier to administer, may not always be the most effective way of addressing healthcare cost. In this regard, we analyze the impact of different types of household level health expenses on disease incidence and agricultural production efficiency. We use data from the 2006 Uganda National Household Survey, which covered approximately 7,400 households. The results suggest that a 10% increase in consultation, medicine, and hospitalization expenses would reduce malaria incidence respectively by 35.6%, 20.5%, and 21.3 %, which translates into a 1.1%, 0.6%, and 0.6 % decrease in agricultural inefficiency, respectively. The results indicate that helping poor households meet expenses for consultation through subsidies or eliminating consultation fees has a larger impact on malaria incidence and agricultural productivity among poor rural households than subsidizing the cost of medical drugs, the most common avenue chosen by developing country governments in the fight against the disease.