Fuzzy-AHP法在装备采购风险决策中的应用

针对武器装备采购决策中的风险问题,建立了模糊层次分析评价模型。首先对装备采购项目决策的风险进行识别,利用模糊层次分析法对风险进行评价,风险评价结果可作为装备采购决策的依据,并通过实例进行说明。     

基于FAHP的工程项目招标风险评价研究

工程项目招标是实现项目科学管理的重要步骤。招标中的风险评价是招标过程中不可缺少的部分,它能有效地监督、控制业主、承包商和监理法人的行为。在分析招标过程中风险的基础上,构建了面向业主的招标风险评价指标体系,提出基于改进的模糊层次分析法(RFAHP)的招标风险评价模型。最后,用一个案例阐述了模型应用过程和验证了模型有效性。     

基于borda序值法和模糊层次分析法对跨国公司R&D外包的风险度量

本文采用德尔菲法识别研发外包项目中可能出现的主要风险,再运用改进后的风险矩阵对已识别出的主要风险因素量化分析,然后采用Borda序值法初步对风险因素初步排序,最后运用模糊层次分析法对各风险要素进行权重计算并排序,确定风险的相对大小。本文采用的模糊层次分析法主要包括建立层次结构模型、构造模糊互补判断矩阵、计算各风险因素的权重、模糊互补判断矩阵的一致性检验以及总排序。     

寒地城市老旧小区改造项目风险管理研究

为应对寒地城市老旧小区改造项目的复杂性,有效地规避风险,保障项目顺利运行,基于文献分析法、Delphi法及因子分析法识别出适用于寒地城市老旧小区改造项目的 5方面的风险以及19个二级风险指标,利用C-OWA算子赋权法和熵权法的线性加权组合确定风险指标权重,通过三角模糊数改进云模型的方法建立香顺小区改造项目的风险评价模型,并应用MATLAB软件进行云图的绘制,得到最终的风险评价结果。与此同时,验证了评价体系的适用性与评价方法的科学性与可操作性,为寒地城市老旧小区改造项目风险管理提供可靠参考,促进寒地城市的有机更新。     

基于WBS-RBS及FCE法对B型产品开发项目的风险评估

文中以电梯部件产品项目开发的为例进行分析。首先用WBS-RBS方法得到风险识别矩阵,确定了影响项目的相关风险因素。其次,运用层次分析法进行分析计算,得到各风险因素的权重系数。接着,用模糊综合评价法构建出模糊评价矩阵,结合风险的权重向量得到模糊评价向量,将其归一化处理后,根据最大隶属度原则,得出该项目风险程度等级。最后项目组负责成员对相关风险采取针对性的措施,以便于有效的预防和转移风险。     

基于模糊层次分析法的国际工程EPC总承包项目风险评价研究

目前中国工程公司以EPC总承包模式参与国际竞争愈来愈普遍,EPC项目跟传统项目相比,总承包商面临更多风险因素。本文结合EPC总承包项目的特点,对总承包商在EPC国际项目中所面临的风险进行了系统分类,运用模糊层次分析法评价EPC总承包项目的风险,建立评价模型,最终得到EPC总承包项目的风险等级,为国际工程EPC总承包项目的风险决策提供依据。     

故障树分析法在项目安全风险评估中的应用

本文简述了安全风险的特征和分类,介绍了故障树分析法的基本步骤和分析方法,同时以"工人从脚手架、模板、作业平台上坠落"作为顶上事件,系统讲解了故障树分析法在项目安全风险评估中的应用,对企业和项目安全风险管理有一定的借鉴意义。     

油井固井质量风险识别与评价研究

构建基于无结构决策方法(AHM法)和模糊综合评价的油井固井质量风险评价模型。用AHM法计算各级影响指标对上级指标的影响权重;运用ABC分析法,把风险因素进行排列分类;结合权重用模糊综合评价方法评判出油井固井质量风险级别。     

基于模糊层次分析法的一体化物流风险评价

根据一体化物流项目多样化和复杂性的特点,基于模糊层次分析法,设计了风险评估实施模型,该模型通过专家系统对风险因素的识别和量化,将风险因素的重要性进行排序,为决策提供更合理的依据,通过实例论证也说明了这一结果的合理性。     

政府采办中费用风险评估方法概述

政府采办过程中会有风险事件发生，其对采办工作的影响，需从这种风险事件发生时所导致的系统性能下降、采办费用上升和工期的延长，即性能、费用、进度这三方面来综合衡量。费用风险分析是政府采办风险分析工作的主要研究内容之一，本文以仅考虑费用问题造成的直接费用为基础，介绍了几种较为适用的费用风险评估方法，为建立费用风险评估模型提供参考。     

Fuzzy model estimation of the risk factors impact on the target of promotion of the software product

ABSTRACT

This article studies the application of fuzzy logic to the risk analysis of a new software product development and marketing in specific case of a small size IT company. Identification and analysis of external and internal risk factors show that this type of business activity could be evaluated as high-risk enterprise. So, the purpose of the paper is to develop robust method to evaluate probability of occurrence of major risk events and their impact on the company financial health. The fuzzy logic is used to estimate degrees of threat of each relevant risk factor due to lack of reliable statistical data. The novelty of proposed approach is the inclusion into the model the risk event time.     

浅谈Partnering模式的定义

在特定的背景下提出采用Partnering模式,意识到它是提高市场竞争力、降低成本、提高进度、减少索赔的理想项目管理模式。考察了20多年来许多组织、个人对Partnering模式从不同角度的理解,综合分析Partnering模式的定义,本文强调运用Partnering模式的首要问题应是正确把握Partnering模式的内涵。     

BT模式下的市政工程投资风险分析

市政工程采用BT建设模式在我国应用越来越多。政府在一定时间内将市政工程项目全权交由投资承包商进行建设,政府对项目进行宏观控制、间接管理,因此投资控制难度很大,容易造成投资超支现象。因此采用BT模式,政府和投资承包商两个项目主体都面临相应的风险,在我国BT模式没有可参照的标准,项目涉及的参与方多,实施过程操作复杂,不确定性因素多的前提下,如何对项目进行投资控制,实现互利共赢,是需要解决的关键问题。本文根据市政工程BT模式的投融资特点,分析了市政工程BT项目的成本构成和费用控制的要点,梳理了市政工程BT项目回购基价影响因素,提出了控制回购基价的有效方式。并对BT模式下的市政工程风险进行了全面的分析。     

模糊数学在桥梁造价编制中的应用

工程造价的确定是工程造价管理中一个核心的组成部分,如何准确、快速的确定工程造价是目前工程造价管理中的一个探讨热点,将模糊数学的原理运用于工程项目造价编制,建立了基于模糊数学的工程造价确定模型,此模型可实现工程项目造价准确、快速、精确的编制,最后将此模型应用于公路桥梁工程的造价编制。     

基于VaR理论的工程造价风险研究

随着极值统计理论的发展,其在水文、海洋、气象、地震、金融、以及工程等可靠性领域被越来越广泛地应用。文中根据极端事件风险理论和工程造价风险分析的实际,提出了基于POT模型的一种极值分布——GPD,并利用GPD分布,得到相应的VaR(风险价值)估计值,实现对工程造价风险的度量。     

Decision making framework for tender evaluation and contractor selection in public organizations with risk considerations

Selecting the best construction contractor plays a critical role in the success of any construction project. Moreover, in the public sector, the traditional lowest bid method is still broadly used and contracts are often awarded based on the lowest price. However, this method has been criticized by many researchers because even if it might guarantee the lowest cost for a project, it does not guarantee the maximum value in terms of time and quality. More particularly, the risk exposure during the tendering process is usually very high and the success of the construction project is strongly related to managing this risk in an appropriate way. Therefore, the selection of the most appropriate contractor should be based on a set of criteria such as technical capability, financial stability, risk, safety, etc., in addition to cost in order to avoid problems that may happen after the contract is awarded. This study aims therefore to develop a decision making framework (DMF) to assist the public organizations in selecting the most appropriate construction contractor(s). The proposed DMF uses a combination of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) tools and fuzzy logic theory and consists of three stages. In the first stage, data envelopment analysis (DEA) is used to reduce the number of contractors, based on multiple criteria, such that only efficient contractors are considered. In the second stage, the risk factors that are related to each efficient contractor are identified and assessed using a fuzzy logic based approach. Finally, in the third stage, a bi-objective mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model is developed to select the best contractor(s) based on cost and risk and to determine the optimal quantity of work to be assigned to each selected contractor. Indeed, the proposed approach considers the multiple award contract case in which more than one contractor can be selected to share the amount of work to be performed. We assume that prior to using the proposed DMF, a pre-qualification study is conducted using multiple criteria chosen by the public organization, and only pre-qualified contractors are included in the first stage of the proposed DMF. Moreover, a case study inspired from the contractor selection process in a public organization in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is used to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.     

基于AHP-FCE模型的复杂产品系统项目风险评估研究

针对复杂产品系统(CoPS)的特点,在对CoPS项目风险识别的基础上,利用层次分析(AHP)法建立了CoPS项目风险的评价指标体系,确定了风险因素的权重;并引入模糊综合评价(FCE)的基本思想和方法,构建了CoPS项目风险的模糊综合评价模型。并且结合案例介绍了该模型的应用过程。     

基于PDCA模式的建设项目成本管理

将质量管理中的PDCA模式应用到建设项目的成本管理,不仅形成决策、设计、招投标、施工和竣工验收五大阶段的动态循环控制体系,而且同时可以在各阶段内部进行若干PDCA循环,通过科学合理的成本计划、动态的成本检查和偏差分析以及有效的成本控制措施,有效地防止成本控制中的"三超现象"发生。     

挣值法在项目进度成本集成控制中的应用

挣值法是一种对项目进度、成本进行集成控制的方法,能够客观而清晰地反映出项目目前的运行状态,并能预测项目的未来趋势,它能够在一个较早的时间为项目可能出现的成本超支或进度滞后敲响警钟,能够让项目经理有充足的时间采取相应的措施,保证项目在计划的进度和成本内顺利完成。     

A model for irreversible investment with construction and revenue uncertainty

This paper presents a model of investment in projects that are characterized by uncertainty over both the construction costs and revenues. Both processes are modeled as spectrally negative Lévy jump-diffusions. The optimal stopping problem that determines the value of the project is solved under fairly general assumptions. It is found that the current value of the benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR) decreases in the frequency of negative shocks to the construction process. This implies that the cost overruns that can be expected if one ignores such shocks are increasing in their frequency. Based on calibrated data, the model is applied to the proposed construction of high-speed rail in the UK and it is found that its economic case cannot currently be made and is unlikely to be met at any time in the next decade. In addition it is found that ignoring construction uncertainty leads to a substantial probability of an erroneous decision being taken.