中国制造业就业增长的反向变动趋势

本文试图考察在我国技术进步偏向资本增加情况下,资本深化对劳动密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型制造业就业增长的反向作用。鉴于我国技术进步具有要素偏向性,本文在构建理论模型时加入有偏技术进步假设,发现在技术进步偏向资本要素投入的条件下,资本深化会加深对就业的负向冲击。并利用wind数据库公布的中国制造业2383家上市企业2007-2018年数据,从横向和纵向两个维度验证了这点,结果发现:(1)在技术进步偏向资本要素投入时,资本劳动比增长率提高会降低整个制造业的就业增长率,技术进步吞噬就业。但是,资本深化对劳动密集型与资本密集型、技术密集型的就业增长作用呈反向趋势。(2)自供给侧结构性改革提出后,该反向变动趋势加强。这意味着,在技术进步和制造业深度融合过程中,劳动者需不断提高自身技能,提高就业竞争力;企业和政府配合提供培训支持,防止工人由于技能不匹配而导致大规模的结构性失业。     

A theory of heterogeneous city growth

We consider an economy with three cities producing different outputs. Two cities produce intermediate goods, a type 1 city producing an intermediate “agricultural” good with capital and labor only, and a type 2 city producing an intermediate “industrial” good with capital, labor, and human capital. A type 3 city produces the final good which is obtained from the two intermediate goods and labor. The asymmetric introduction of human capital allows us to prove that the three cities experience, at equilibrium, heterogeneous endogenous growth rates which are proportional to the growth rate of human capital. We show that the “industrial” type 2 city is characterized by the larger growth rate while the “agricultural” type 1 city experiences the lower growth rate, and thus the type 3 city is characterized by a growth rate which is a convex combination of the two former growth rates. This implies that the relative size in terms of output of the “agricultural” city decreases over time. This property allows us to recover the empirical fact that most non‐agricultural production occurs in growing metropolitan areas. But, simultaneously, as we prove that total labor employed in each city is proportional to the total population, the relative population size distribution of cities is constant over time, as shown in empirical studies.     

Black male unemployment

Public policies intended to raise the wages of unskilled workers, equalize educational opportunity, stabilize employment, and increase imports were sources of the growth of unskilled and, therefore, of black unemployment since 1950. The wartime wage-equalization policy and postwar minimum-wage policies raised the cost of unskilled labor relative to that of capital and of skilled labor. The Fed's inflationary full-employment policy between 1950 and 1970 reduced real interest rates relative to unskilled wages. Subsidies for higher education increased the supply of skilled labor, reducing its cost relative to that of unskilled labor. Trade liberalization increased imports of manufactured goods from developing countries, which displaced U.S. unskilled labor.     

Immigrant Specificity and the Relationship between Trade and Immigration: Theory and Evidence

Studies routinely document that immigrant employment concentrates in non‐traded goods sectors and that many immigrants have low inter‐sectoral mobility. We consider these observed characteristics of immigrant employment with regard to the question of how immigration affects a nation's pattern of production and trade. We model an economy producing three goods; one is non‐traded. Domestic labor and capital are domestically mobile but internationally immobile. Allowing that some new immigrants will become specific to the non‐traded goods sector, the model indicates that the effects of immigration on output and trade depend importantly on the sectoral pattern of employment of both new and existing immigrants. Empirical investigation in a panel data set of OECD countries supports the model's prediction that immigration raises the output of non‐traded goods. Consistent with the model, we also find that immigration and trade are complements. Given its empirical support, the model's implications for immigration policy are then discussed.     

Empirical analysis of urban youth unemployment in Ethiopia

Lack of adequate jobs and long unemployment duration becomes a challenge for urban youth in Ethiopia. This study empirically examines youth unemployment and its determinants in urban Ethiopia. It aims to examine the incidences and durations of youth unemployment and their determinant factors. In addition to logistic regression model, a nonparametric Kaplan–Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards model are used. The results indicate that both the incidence and duration of youth unemployment is higher in urban Ethiopia. The hazards model shows that the hazard rate of leaving unemployment are significantly related to individual characteristics such as age and educational level of the youth, and labor market factors such as experience and job market information. Gender and regional disparities are observed. Young women exit unemployment much slower than men and the exit rate increases with age. Big and relatively more urbanized regions have a higher incidence and longer duration of unemployment spells than the small regions. Finally, based on the results, the study suggests that there is a need to adopt target policies that will promote skills and employment opportunities for the youth. Providing entrepreneurship training and startup capital to encourage youth to create rather than seek jobs is critical in this regard.     

Development and prospects of capital goods production in revolutionary Cuba

Capital goods have played an important role in the industrialization process of the leading industrial nations of today and the absence of a capital goods sector is often considered a serious handicap to industrialization in the developing countries. Cuba had practically no capital goods industries prior to the Revolution in 1959 and in the 1960s much hope was vested in the rapid creation of such a sector. As this study shows, however, this was a much more complicated process than envisaged. After much frustration in the 1960s, Cuba managed in the 1970s to create the base for a dynamic capital goods industry, but only subsequent to a trial and error process of “learning by doing,” especially as concerned spare parts. Today Cuba has a relatively important capital goods industry, considering the limited size of the country, and is particularly strong in the production of agricultural machinery. The prospects for the future are quite good in light of the existence of a highly skilled and adequately trained labor force.     

用工荒与就业难并存的经济学分析

文章首先分析了用工荒与就业难并存的表面原因，进而得出产业结构不合理、城乡二元结构、城市内部存在的“新二元”结构及人力资本不足是两者并存的内在原因。文章认为，解决用工荒和就业难的对策：一要调整产业结构；二要实行积极的就业政策；三要加大资本投资；四要完善社会保障体系。     

International Trade and R&D Investment: Evidence from Chinese Manufacturing Firms

A current concern for China's long‐term growth prospect is whether China can become an innovative economy and achieve industrial upgrading to compensate for the gradually declining competitiveness resulting from low‐cost labor. The present study examines this issue by exploring how trade participation impacts on the R&D investment of manufacturing firms through various channels. Merging China's Annual Manufacturing Survey Dataset and the Chinese Customs Dataset allows us to study such a relationship at the individual firm level. The empirical results suggest that channels such as geographical diversification of export markets, share of imports from high‐income countries, average unit value of imports, number of intermediate goods and capital goods imports, and the trade regime are significant factors that influence firm‐level R&D investment. The study discusses the policy implications of the empirical findings in relation to industrial and trade policies that may be potentially beneficial for China's transition towards an innovative economy.     

贸易开放与工资差距——基于中国制造业行业面板数据的实证研究

本文在中国贸易非均衡发展现状基础上,构建计量模型,从商品价格机制、技术进步机制和生产率进步机制角度探讨中国贸易开放影响中国制造业行业间工资差距的具体传导机制。研究发现:(1)就制造业总体而言,贸易主要通过技术进步机制和劳动生产率机制来影响行业工资,造成行业间工资差距的扩大。(2)具体而言,劳动力密集型行业中,进出口贸易、资本密集度和劳动生产率共同作用于行业工资差距;在资本密集型行业中,进口贸易、资本密集度和劳动生产率是扩大工资差距的动因;在技术密集型行业中,出口贸易是工资差距扩大的主导因素。     

Exporting firms’ factor and product-quality adjustments in response to employment protection legislation: Evidence from China

Employment-protection legislation (EPL) is known to reduce the unemployment risk of workers and employees and implicitly raises the costs of labor as a factor of production, in particular, the adjustment costs for that factor. Using firm-level accounting data and matched transaction-level trade data, the paper documents that firms responded to the inception of a new labor contract law as accepted by the National People's Congress of China in mid-2007 not only by adjusting their labor demand but also in terms of other adjustments: they raised the capital intensity of production and increased the quality of their output. The paper provides evidence that such changes and adjustments were particularly strong for firms in ex ante labor-intensive sectors and for private firms which were less shielded from adverse competitive effects than state-owned ones.     

高铁能否促进产业结构升级:基于资源再配置的视角

高铁建设进一步完善了我国的交通网络体系,这对地区经济时空格局将产生深远影响。文章采用2000-2016年地级市辖区数据构建"反事实"框架下的双重差分模型,研究高铁开通对我国地区产业结构升级的因果净效应。结果发现,高铁建设显著提升了地区产业结构由低级向高级转变的高级化进程,且东、中部地区高铁开通的净效应显著,西部地区却不明显,稳健性检验结果依然显著。进一步从资源再配置视角检验高铁建设的作用机制,研究发现,高铁开通加速了地区劳动力流通和资本积累,并且高铁建设主要通过提升资本和劳动力再配置效应来实现地区产业结构由低级向高级的动态转化。同时劳动力和资本再配置效率存在明显的区域差异性,即东、中部地区劳动力和资本再配置效率显著高于西部地区,具有潜在的"俱乐部收敛"特征。     

重庆市劳动力转移与二元经济结构困境分析

重庆传统部门劳动力数量多和资本和技术密集型产业的发展使得劳动力转移速度变缓,剩余劳动力转移难度加大,制度工资的提高推迟了转折的拐点出现,最终导致了二元经济结构在劳动力转移中呈现倒“U”型趋势。为此,我们要加强城乡基础设施建设和加快城市工业化的进程,积极推进农村特色产业的有序发展,以期为加快二元经济结构的转换提供有益指导。     

我国居民劳动报酬增长的阶段性与同步性研究

劳动力供求的变化使我国可能在2015年以后进入劳动报酬的高增长期。届时劳动报酬占比较低的状况可能得到改善,但在劳动报酬总量持续增长的同时,人均劳动报酬将会陷入一个低增长期,原因主要在于低水平的人力资本积累、低效率的产业结构转型、老龄化及忽视员工的企业经营伦理。因此,实现劳动报酬总量与人均水平同步增长的关键在于培育一个包含政府、企业、劳动者,充满有效的动力、激励和约束机制的社会系统模式。     

外资、产业集聚与失业:新经济地理观

本文整合Harris-Todaro(1970)的城市失业现象与Krugman(1991)的新经济地理理论,建立新经济地理失业模型,探讨外资对于就业、城市失业量(率)与产业结构的影响;焦点置于要素替代差异、Todaro矛盾以及引进外资国家的福利分析。在两国架构中,当引进外资时,若要素替代弹性较低,资本引进国随着制造业扩张,其劳动雇佣量固然上升,但城市失业量亦随之上扬,出现Todaro矛盾现象。反之,在高要素替代情况下,引进外资的国家可能出现制造业就业和城市失业量同时下降的现象。     

劳动力结构变化影响制造业结构升级的实证研究

运用1996-2015 年省级面板数据,构建FGLS 模型,本文实证检验了劳动力结构变化对制造业结构升级的影响效应。结果表明：在劳动力年龄结构中,新生代劳动力占比上升能促进制造业结构升级,即对劳动、资本密集型制造业影响效应为负,而对技术密集型制造业影响效应为正且作用强度较大;在劳动力素质结构中,知识型劳动力占比上升对制造业结构升级具有一定推动作用,即对劳动密集型制造业影响效应为负,而对资本和技术密集型制造业影响效应为正,但作用系数较小;在劳动力性别结构中,男性劳动力占比上升阻碍了制造业结构升级,即对劳动密集型制造业影响效应为正,而对资本和技术密集型制造业影响效应都为负。最后根据实证结论, 就如何顺应劳动力年龄、素质与性别结构变化顺势推进制造业结构升级,提出了相应的政策建议。     

Rejuvenation and Modernization of the Northeast China TraditionalIndustrial Base

I. IntroductionIn the process of industrialization and industrial modernization, there is the emerging problemof decline of the old industrial base and development of the new. This is due to theunsynchronized regional upgrading of industrial structure. After some leading industriesdevelop and accumulate on a large scale, they sooner or later are replaced by new industries,and wane. The reformation and rejuvenation of old industrial bases has thus become theproblem inevitably facing many count…     

外商直接投资对我国制造业比较优势的影响分析

本文通过1995~2009年外商直接投资和产业比较优势指数的分析表明,外商直接投资对我国制造业比较优势有显著影响,外商直接投资对我国服装业等劳动密集型制造业的比较优势呈现负相关,而对资本和技术密集型工业制造业的比较优势呈正相关。随着我国生产要素成本提高和消费市场的扩大,外商直接投资推动着我国劳动密集型制造业转型升级,同时促进资本和技术密集型制造业发展。未来,我国将由"世界工厂"向"世界市场"转变,生产环节将由"低端的加工"向"研发和市场两端"外移,因此,"十二五"期间我国要根据产业比较优势的动态变化,加强对外商直接投资的产业引导。     

金融危机前中国经济发展模式反思与后危机时代战略选择

文章运用投入产出法,根据2002年和2007年中国42部门投入产出表以及OECD美国2007年的投入产出表计算了中国及美国高技术产业和传统工业的完全消耗系数,结合两国高技术产业的发展情况,对两国产业升级情况进行定量对比分析。分析表明中国技术密集型产业对高技术产业的消耗尤为突出,而劳动密集型产业对高技术密集型产业消耗较低。并依据数据为我国产业发展提出建议。     

要素配置、产业发展与产业结构——基于政府主导的产业发展战略视角

文章构造了理论模型分析政府主导的发展战略通过影响资本和劳动力的配置,从而影响产业发展以及产业结构调整,并利用1984-2015年省际数据实证检验了发展战略对于产业发展以及产业结构调整的影响效应。结果发现,产业发展战略提升了各产业的资本深化程度,对于中国产业发展以及产业结构有很大的主导作用。具体来说,产业发展战略促进了各产业的发展,对第二产业发展的促进效应最大,并且产业的发展存在内部滞后效应;发展战略可以显著地促进产业结构高级化,但是对于产业结构合理化和有效产业结构存在负向作用,即不利于资本-劳动在产业中的配置以及经济增长的结构效应,同时,产业结构调整也存在明显的滞后效应。     

Dynamic products in world exports

The values of three product categories have grown most rapidly in world exports during the period 1980–2000: electrical and electronic goods (including parts and components for such goods), goods from other technology-intensive industries, and labour-intensive products, particularly clothing. A strong geographical concentration at both regional and country levels is discernable regarding the origin of these products from developing countries. There appears to be a sustained movement in world exports towards the growing significance of a limited number of products and it would seem that there has been a rapid and sustained technological upgrading in the export composition of developing countries. However, since the involvement of developing countries is usually limited to the labour-intensive stages in the production process of technology-intensive goods in the context of international production sharing, simple measures of growth in gross export values are poor guides for an assessment of the nature of participation of developing countries in world trade.