Determinants of short-term debt: a note

Although various measures to lengthen the maturity of foreign debt are being discussed, there is relatively little evidence on the determinants of short-term debt. This paper briefly reviews the theoretical literature and discusses a stylized model which stresses the role of short-term debt under conditions of uncertainty. We then complement earlier empirical work by Rodrik and Velasco. Using a new dataset, we find that the determinants of short-term bank lending do not differ significantly between developed and developing countries. The level of economic development and the share of loans to banks are found to have a positive, OECD membership to have a negative impact on the share of short-term loans.     

The impacts of Net Stable Funding Ratio requirement on Banks’ choices of debt maturity

In this paper, we study the impacts of the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) requirement on banks’ choices of debt maturity and asset structures, with consequences for banks’ profitability and social welfare. We develop a model in which the manager of a bank determines both debt maturity structure (short-term vs. long-term debt) and asset composition (cash vs. risky assets). To address the incongruence of goals between the bank manager and the bank stakeholders, in our model we assume that the manager receives only a proportion of the bank’s profit in her pay schedule. We demonstrate that the optimal choices of the manager regarding debt maturity and asset structure lead to socially inefficient (second-best) outcomes because the manager internalizes only part of the social benefit. We then study the implications of the NSFR requirement on the manager’s choices and demonstrate that the NSFR requirement can enhance social welfare and reach an efficient (first-best) outcome, if a sufficiently low weight of short-term debt as available stable funding is required by regulation. Further, we find that under the same conditions the NSFR requirement reduces banks’ use of short-term financing and thus increases the probability of banks’ survival and profits from the ex ante point of view, while it decreases banks’ profits from the ex post point of view, since it reduces the threshold for banks’ survival. Our main results have some interesting empirical implications: under certain conditions, the NSFR requirement may reduce both bank failures and banks’ observed profits.     

Bank lending during the financial crisis of 2008

This paper shows that new loans to large borrowers fell by 47% during the peak period of the financial crisis (fourth quarter of 2008) relative to the prior quarter and by 79% relative to the peak of the credit boom (second quarter of 2007). New lending for real investment (such as working capital and capital expenditures) fell by only 14% in the last quarter of 2008, but contracted nearly as much as new lending for restructuring (LBOs, M&As, share repurchases) relative to the peak of the credit boom. After the failure of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, there was a run by short-term bank creditors, making it difficult for banks to roll over their short term debt. We find that there was a simultaneous run by borrowers who drew down their credit lines, leading to a spike in commercial and industrial loans reported on bank balance sheets. We examine whether these two stresses on bank liquidity led them to cut lending. In particular, we show that banks cut their lending less if they had better access to deposit financing and thus, they were not as reliant on short-term debt. We also show that banks that were more vulnerable to credit-line drawdowns because they co-syndicated more of their credit lines with Lehman Brothers reduced their lending to a greater extent.     

Is small beautiful? The resilience of small banks during the European debt crisis

We examine the lending behaviour of small and large banks in the Eurozone during the sovereign debt crisis. Relative to large banks, small banks are less pro-cyclical in that they exhibit more stable lending growth across credit expansion and contraction periods. In peripheral countries, the portfolio rebalancing of small banks towards higher public debt (substitution effect) does not appear to cause a reduction of their lending to the private sector. Instead, the level of public debt seems to provide a liquidity buffer that influences bank-specific loan growth positively (complementarity effect), particularly during market-wide lending contractions. Our findings show that for small peripheral banks the substitution effect found in the literature can coexist with a complementarity effect when public debt grows faster than private loans. Our analysis contributes to the ongoing debate on the regulatory treatment of public debt in banks and supports incentives embedded in new banking regulation that penalise bank size.     

非标意见与债务融资——基于银行借款和债务期限结构的经验证据

理论上,年报被出具非标意见会降低企业的债务融资能力。但本文发现非标意见对企业新增银行借款和债务期限结构没有显著负面影响,不支持理论预期。我们认为,在中国,银行是一个并非完全以利润最大化为目标的独立市场主体,他们会为了地方社会稳定和经济发展向企业提供贷款;另外,企业有政府的隐性支持,银行不需要太关注企业的偿债风险。因此,虽然非标意见传递出会计信息质量低或未来经营风险高等问题,但它对银行借款的影响相当有限。本文的研究有助于我们理解中国上市公司会计造假盛行、非标意见比例过高的现象。     

The stability of short-term interest rates pass-through in the euro area during the financial market and sovereign debt crises

We analyse the dynamics of the pass-through of banks’ marginal cost to bank lending rates over the 2008 crisis and the euro area sovereign debt crisis in France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain. We measure banks’ marginal cost by their rate on new deposits, contrary to the literature that focuses on money market rates. This allows us to account for banks’ risks. We focus on the interest rate on new short-term loans granted to non-financial corporations in these countries. Our analysis is based on an error-correction approach that we extend to handle the time-varying long-run relationship between banks’ lending rates and banks’ marginal cost, as well as stochastic volatility. Our application is based on a harmonised monthly database from January 2003 to October 2014. We estimate the model within a Bayesian framework, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC).We reject the view that the transmission mechanism is permanent over time. The long-run relationship moved with the sovereign debt crises to a new one, with a slower pass-through and higher bank lending rates. Its developments are heterogeneous from one country to the other. Impediments to the transmission of monetary rates depend on the heterogeneity in banks marginal costs and therefore, its risks. We also find that rates to small firms increase compared to large firms in a few countries. Using a VAR model, we show that overall, the effect of a shock on the rate of new deposits on the unexpected variances of new loans has been less important since 2010. These results confirm the slowdown in the transmission mechanism.     

International monetary policy transmission through banks in small open economies

This paper studies the international transmission of monetary policy through banks in small open economies using the examples of Switzerland and Canada. We assess the inward transmission of foreign monetary policy for Switzerland and the outward transmission of domestic monetary policy for Canada. In both country cases, we focus on the international bank lending and the international portfolio channel, which make opposing predictions about how monetary policy transmits internationally through banks. Our results on the inward transmission of foreign monetary policy through banks in Switzerland are consistent with a role for the international portfolio channel, but we find no evidence for the traditional international bank lending channel. The results on the outward transmission of domestic monetary policy in Canada suggest that foreign lending by Canadian banks is affected through both channels, which work as predicted and largely balance each other.     

The Effect of Bank-firm Relationships on Sell-side Research

In this paper, I examine how the lending relationships between banks and their borrowers affect the quality of analysts’ earnings forecasts after financial deregulation in Japan. My findings show that short-term lending relationships improve the quality of analysts’ earnings forecasts and that these earnings forecasts are useful for predicting future returns. In contrast, long-term lending relationships decay the quality of forecast and are not valuable for the prediction of future returns. These empirical results indicate that the informational advantage that commercial banks acquire is short-term and that the costs of lending relationships surpass the informational benefits in the long run.     

The international transmission of monetary policy

This paper presents the novel results from an internationally coordinated project by the International Banking Research Network (IBRN) on the cross-border transmission of conventional and unconventional monetary policy through banks. Teams from seventeen countries use confidential micro-banking data for the years 2000 through 2015 to explore the international transmission of monetary policies of the United States, euro area, Japan, and United Kingdom. Two other studies use international data with different degrees of granularity. International spillovers into lending to the private sector do occur, especially for US policies, and bank-specific heterogeneity influences the magnitudes of transmission. The effects are supportive of the international bank lending channel and the portfolio channel of monetary policy transmission. They also show that the frictions that banks face matter; in particular, foreign currency funding and hedging considerations can be a key source of heterogeneity. The forms of bank balance sheet heterogeneity that differentiate spillovers across banks are not uniform across countries. International spillovers into lending can be large for some banks, even while the average international spillovers of policies into nonbank lending generally are not large.     

银行与企业交叉持股的理论与依据——基于国际比较的研究

本文通过文献回顾分析了世界主要国家银行与企业交叉持股的经济后果。从银行持有企业股份的角度而言,一方面银行持有企业股份能降低委托代理成本,另一方面银行同时作为股东和债权人会产生利益冲突。从企业持有银行股份的角度看,企业持股银行最直接的后果是关联贷款。但是,关联贷款既可能是掏空银行的手段,也可能是因为银行对企业股东更为了解,所以发放关联贷款。本文的结论表明,银行与企业交叉持股既有积极的一面,也要严密防范金融风险。本文的结论对于促进产融结合具有积极的意义。     

银行信贷中会计信息的使用情况调查与分析

贷款人对企业财务信息的关注不只是会计信息决策有用性的理论问题, 更重要的是银行如何加强对贷款风险有效控制的一个非常实际的问题。本项工作通过问卷调查的方式, 了解银行授信过程中会计信息的应用情况及银行对非财务信息的使用情况。我们发现, 银行对长短期借款、主营业务收入、资产负债率、流动比率和速动比率等财务信息高度重视, 对有助于进一步判别企业潜在风险的报表附注信息也比较重视。     

Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?

We analyze lender of last resort (LOLR) lending during the European sovereign debt crisis. Using a novel data set on all central bank lending and collateral, we show that weakly capitalized banks took out more LOLR loans and used riskier collateral than strongly capitalized banks. We also find that weakly capitalized banks used LOLR loans to buy risky assets such as distressed sovereign debt. This resulted in a reallocation of risky assets from strongly to weakly capitalized banks. Our findings cannot be explained by classical LOLR theory. Rather, they point to risk taking by banks, both independently and with the encouragement of governments, and highlight the benefit of unifying LOLR lending and bank supervision.     

银行全口径短期外债管理制度在外汇资金调控中的应用

本文着眼于外汇管理改革的要求，认为应加强对银行短债的总量管理和调控，建立银行伞口径短期外债指标管理制度，将银行各项下的对外负债均纳入管碑范围，按照风险等级对各类短债赋予不同权重，对各行加权后的短债总量实行规模控制，同时，依据形势变动，对银行短债规模进行总量动态调控，以此提高银行外债管理效率，更加有效地防范跨境资金流动风险。     

Bank Equity Investments: Reducing Agency Costs or Buying Undervalued Firms? The Information Effects

Abstract:   This paper analyses the relevance of two different reasons for banks to acquire firms' stock: the increase of agency costs in the lending relationship (the agency costs hypothesis), and participation in the expected profits of undervalued firms (the information asymmetry hypothesis). Results indicate not only that banks make equity investments for both reasons but also that the market exploits their lending decisions to learn which of the two motivations was in play. Bank equity investments concurrent with reductions in bank debt are consistent with the agency costs hypothesis, whereas bank equity investments concurrent with increases in bank debt are consistent with the information asymmetry hypothesis.     

Local Bank Financial Constraints and Firm Access to External Finance

I exploit the exogenous component of a formula‐based allocation of government funds across banks in Argentina to test for financial constraints and underinvestment by local banks. Banks are found to expand lending by $0.66 in response to an additional dollar of external financing. Using novel data to measure risk and return on marginal lending, I show that the profitability of lending does not decline and total borrower debt increases during lending expansions, holding investment opportunities constant. Overall, financial shocks to constrained banks are found to have a quick, persistent, and amplified effect on the aggregate supply of credit.     

The International Transmission of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market

I exploit the 1998 Russian default as a negative liquidity shock to international banks and analyze its transmission to Peru. I find that after the shock international banks reduce bank‐to‐bank lending to Peruvian banks and Peruvian banks reduce lending to Peruvian firms. The effect is strongest for domestically owned banks that borrow internationally, intermediate for foreign‐owned banks, and weakest for locally funded banks. I control for credit demand by examining firms that borrow from several banks. These results suggest that international banks transmit liquidity shocks across countries and that negative liquidity shocks reduce bank lending in affected countries.     

减税政策对小微企业债务期限结构的影响

本文主要探讨减税政策对小微企业债务期限结构的影响。理论上,减税政策对企业债务期限结构产生两种方向相反的效果:一是减税后企业盈利状况改善,激励银行通过延长债务期限以争取企业客户;二是减税后企业可支配现金流增加,加剧银行与企业间的委托代理问题,促使银行缩短债务期限以便加强企业监督。本文以所得税减半征收政策作为自然实验,基于全国税收调查数据库(2010-2015)考察了减税政策对小微企业债务期限结构的影响。实证结果显示:减税后企业的债务期限整体得以延长;如果减税后企业的盈利状况改善更多,或可支配现金流增长更缓,企业债务期限延长幅度更大。此外,本文发现在快速扩张行业、有产能过剩风险行业以及房地产上下游关联行业中的企业往往会因为较强的代理成本效应而面临减税后债务期限的边际缩短。本文研究结论对改善企业融资结构,特别对提高小微企业获取中长期贷款能力,有一定的参考意义。     

Liquidity regulation and bank lending

Bank liquidity shortages during the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 led to the introduction of liquidity regulations, the impact of which has attracted the attention of academics and policymakers. In this paper, we investigate the impact of liquidity regulation on bank lending. As a setting, we use the Netherlands, where a Liquidity Balance Rule (LBR) was introduced in 2003. The LBR was imposed on Dutch banks only and did not apply to other banks operating elsewhere within the Eurozone. Using this differential regulatory treatment to overcome identification concerns and a difference-in-differences approach, we find that the LBR increased the volume of lending by Dutch banks relative to other banks located in the Eurozone. Increased equity, an inflow of retail deposits and subsequent increase in balance sheet size allowed Dutch banks to increase lending despite having to meet the LBR requirements. The LBR also affected the loan composition of Dutch banks (with corporate and retail lending increasing more than mortgage lending) and the maturity profile of loan portfolios. Our results have relevance for policymakers tasked with monitoring the impact of liquidity regulations on banks and the real economy.     

The real effects of relationship lending✰

This paper studies the real effects of relationship lending on firm activity in Italy following Lehman Brothers’ default shock and Europe's sovereign debt crisis, two different crisis situations where in the latter, bank solvency was at the centre of the economic shock while being more peripheral in the former. We use a large data set that merges the comprehensive Italian Credit and Firm Registers. We find that following Lehman's default, banks offered more favourable continuation lending terms to firms with which they had stronger relationships. Such favourable conditions enabled firms to maintain higher levels of investment and employment. The insulation effects of tighter bank-firm relationships were still present during the European sovereign debt crisis, especially for firms tied to well capitalised banks.