Monetary reaction functions in a small open economy

Monetary reaction functions are constructed in an intertemporal optimization framework. The time-varying coefficients to be put on the variations of the exchange rate and the asset stock are then derived by solving a matrix Riccati equation. As the planning horizon extends to infinity, a related algebraic Riccati equation coincides with those derived from minimization of stationary state variances only under certain conditions. Under the assumed full information by the government, reaction functions using realized values of exogenous shocks result in dynamics that do not enjoy the same stability property as the ones obtained by explicit intertemporal optimization.     

Optimum organization of the labor market in a small open economy

In Denmark labor has been organized in independent but cooperating craft unions for more than a century. Within an extremely simple model of a small open economy facing imperfect competition, we analyze four different ways of organizing the labor market and show that the Danish model (partial centralization of the wage setting process) may be accounted for as the outcome of a two-stage Nash bargaining game, being robust in relation to changes in market conditions, and likely close to optimum from the point of view of society as a whole.     

Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations in a small open economy

In this paper we describe how restricted vector autoregressions can be employed to examine the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations. We show how cointegration restrictions can be used to identify a VAR system with common stochastic trends subject to transitory and permanent changes in average growth, and how we may investigate the system's responses to permanent shocks, i.e. to innovations to the trends. Theoretical cointegration vectors are derived from a small open economy growth model for terms of trade, real GDP, real consumption, and real investments. Applying these methods to Swedish annual data (1875–1986) we find that permanent real (supply) shocks account for most of the fluctuations in GDP, even in the short run.     

From inflation to exchange rate targeting: Estimating the stabilization effects for a small open economy

This paper attempts to estimate possible losses in macroeconomic stabilization due to a move from inflation to exchange rate targeting on the example of the Czech Republic. The authors use an estimated New Keynesian policy model, typical inflation and exchange rate targeting rules, and representative central bank loss functions to carry out these estimations. The authors find that for the Czech Republic, moving from the historically applied inflation targeting to optimized exchange rate targeting should not involve any significant losses in macroeconomic stabilization. However, the Czech National Bank could improve its stabilization outcomes while remaining an inflation targeter. This requires the Czech National Bank to respond more strongly to increasing expected future inflation and to be less concerned about an opening output gap when adjusting its policy rate. Moving then from such optimized inflation targeting to optimized exchange rate targeting can result in significant losses in economic stabilization in the magnitude of 0.4–2% points of GDP growth.     

The effects of total factor productivity and export shocks on a small open economy with unemployment

The paper analyzes the dynamic effects of a supply side shock and a demand side shock, which hit an open economy with unemployment. The supply side shock is modeled as a reduction in total factor productivity, whereas the demand side shock is caused by a drop in exports. The model builds upon the small one-sector two-good open economy framework described in Turnovsky (2000, chapter 11.3). In contrast to this standard framework, in which Walrasian labor markets are assumed, search unemployment and wage bargaining are introduced, and unemployment results from time consuming and costly matching of vacancies with searching agents. Using a plausible calibration of the model, the dynamic adjustments of unemployment, output, and other economic key variables are analyzed. We find that a negative export shock primarily has effects on consumption and welfare, but not on unemployment and output, whereas the supply side shock leads to considerable responses of unemployment, output, consumption and welfare. If both shocks together hit the economy, the changes in consumption and welfare almost double.     

Heterogeneous expectations and debt in a growth model for a small open economy

We extend an aggregative growth model for a small open economy by developing a framework in which boundedly rational agents raise credit in proportion to their expected income. Moreover, these agents are heterogeneous in the sense that they switch between an extrapolative and a regressive forecasting rule with respect to perceived market circumstances. Using a mixture of analytical and numerical tools, we attempt to describe the characteristics of our model’s dynamical system. Our results then suggest that self-fulfilling short-run expectations do not only have important consequences for fluctuations in economic activity but are also a source of simple endogenous dynamics.     

Uncertainty in the terms of trade and the optimal structure of a small open economy

Conclusions The main conclusion to emerge is that in moving from a certain to an uncertain world, the optimal size of the import-competing sector does not fall. For the case of CU it will rise. For PU, whether it increases or not depends on the decision rule used and the ranking of probabilities. Similarly for RU, the form of the utility function and the probability distribution help to determine the size of the import-competing sector. From other simulations we have carried out, we are confident that our main conclusion is fairly robust for this model.     

Ramsey policies in a small open economy with sticky prices and capital

This paper analyzes jointly optimal fiscal and monetary policies in a small open economy with capital and sticky prices. We allow for trade in consumption goods under perfect international risk-sharing. We consider balanced-budget fiscal policies where authorities use distortionary taxes on labor and capital together with monetary policy using the nominal interest rate. First, as long as a symmetric equilibrium is considered, the steady state in an open economy is isomorphic to that of a closed economy. Second, sticky prices’ allocations are almost indistinguishable from flexible prices allocations both in open and closed economies. Third, the open economy dimension delivers results that are qualitatively similar to those of a closed economy but with significant quantitative changes. Tax rates are both more volatile and more persistent to undo the distortions implied by terms of trade fluctuations.     

Gains from interest-rate smoothing in a small open economy with zero-bound aversion

We extend the Monacelli [Monacelli, T. (2005). Monetary policy in a low pass-through environment. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 37(6), 1047–1066] model to allow for a central bank that penalizes nominal interest rate paths that are too close to the zero lower bound. We analytically derive the optimal interest-rate policy rule in each equilibrium under four policy regimes: (i) benchmark commitment to an ex-ante optimal monetary-policy plan; (ii) benchmark discretionary policy; (iii) optimal delegation to a discretionary policy maker with similar preferences to society; and (iv) optimal delegation to a discretionary policy maker with an additional taste for interest-rate smoothing. Under the commitment benchmark, the optimal interest-rate rule is proved to be intrinsically inertial, whereas this property is non-existent under discretionary policy. In the absence of commitment, there are gains to delegating policy to an interest-rate smoothing central banker. We show that while the endogenous law of one price gap in the model exacerbates the optimal policy trade-off that arises under discretionary policy, the latter feature of interest-rate smoothing acts to weaken it, by mimicking intrinsic inertia under the commitment policy.     

Introducing financial frictions and unemployment into a small open economy model

Which are the main frictions and the driving forces of business cycle dynamics in an open economy? To answer this question we extend the standard new Keynesian model in three dimensions: we incorporate financing frictions for capital, employment frictions for labor and extend the model into a small open economy setting. We estimate the model on Swedish data. Our main results are that (i) a financial shock is pivotal for explaining fluctuations in investment and GDP. (ii) The marginal efficiency of investment shock has negligible importance. (iii) The labor supply shock is unimportant in explaining GDP and no high frequency wage markup shock is needed.     

Population ageing and pension reform in a small open economy with non-traded goods

In this paper we study the implications of population ageing in an economy with a sizeable non-traded goods sector. To this effect a highly stylized micro-founded macro model is constructed in which the age structure of the population plays a non-trivial role. The model distinguishes separate birth and death probabilities (thus allowing for net population change), allows for age-dependent labour productivity (thus mimicing life-cycle saving), and includes a rudimentary pension system (thus allowing for intergenerational redistribution). The model is used to analytically study demographic and pension shocks.     

Monetary policy in a small open economy with fixed exchange rate: The case of Macedonia

This paper empirically applies the New Keynesian model for monetary policy analysis in a small open economy with a fixed exchange rate. Official reserves are included in the interest rate rule to account for the constraint that these impose on monetary policy when the exchange rate is fixed. Also, the foreign interest rate is included in order to reflect the necessity of following the foreign monetary policy. The model is applied to Macedonian data from the period 1997 to 2011. In general, results indicate that monetary policy has been focused on domestic objectives during this period, despite the fixed currency. In addition, there seem to have been significant differences in the conduct of the monetary policy in the first and second half of this period. The response to inflation has been more aggressive in the earlier period, at a time when reserves appear less important, while the output gap is found to be important only in the latter period, possibly due to the stronger monetary policy transmission. Finally, results indicate that the monetary policy has likely moved from adaptive in the first period to rational in the second period.     

Globalization and the welfare state

This paper analyzes the impact of globalization on the Welfare State (WS). Some argue that globalization poses a serious threat to WS and therefore questions its sustainability. On the other hand, some others suggest that WS has to expand more as economies are integrating. After reviewing different hypothesis on the relationship between globalization and WS, we empirically examine the relationship by using 32 countries covering 1980 through 2010. According to the estimation results, there is no direct linkage between globalization and the WS. However the reaction of the WS against globalization is found to vary dramatically depending on welfare regimes. We find evidence in favor of compensation hypothesis in Social Democrat, Conservative and Mediterranean Welfare State regimes, whereas efficiency effect is in place in liberal Welfare States.     

Investments in education and welfare in a two-sector,random matching economy

We consider a random matching model where heterogeneous agents choose optimally to invest time and real resources in education. Generically, there is a steady state equilibrium where some agents, but not all of them, invest. Regular steady state equilibria are constrained inefficient in a strong sense. The Hosios (1990) condition is neither necessary nor sufficient for constrained efficiency. We also provide restrictions on the fundamentals sufficient to guarantee that equilibria are characterized by overeducation (or undereducation), present some results on their comparative statics properties, and discuss the nature of welfare improving policies.     

Economic thought and the reform of the welfare state

Economics has become increasingly important in the analysis of the objectives, scope and effects of the welfare state and its future development, with the interesting result of producing growing support for 'liberalist' methods of social reform.     

Unemployment and the business cycle in a small open economy: G.M.M. estimation and testing with French data

What is a relevant model for the European business cycle? In this paper, the empirical performances of three models are compared: a canonical Walrasian R.B.C. framework, its extension to the case of a small open economy, and a version of this model with search and wage bargaining on the labor market. Structural parameters of the models are estimated using G.M.M. and their abilities to reproduce the French business cycle, taken as representative of the European business cycle, are tested. Only the small open economy with unemployment is able to generate theoretical moments that match their empirical counterparts.     

The welfare foundations of regional planning: General equilibrium and Pareto Optimality in a spatial economy

This paper is an attempt to define the conditions of a Pareto Optimum in a spatial economy. The conditions for an optimal allocation of commodities and factors are determined in either a centralized or a decentralized economic system.     

Duopoly locations and optimal zoning in a small open city

This paper analyzes a duopoly location model with an asymmetric zoning that prohibits firms from locating to a specific interval in a small open linear city. It is shown that the maximum differentiation principle presented in d'Aspremont et al. [Econometrica 47 (1979) 1145] is still valid under area zoning regulation. Moreover, a zoning regulation can be seen as a policy instrument to limit firms' excess profits, and a proper regulation may even reduce the distortion in total transportation costs, therefore enhancing social welfare. Specifically, the optimal zoning is about 29.5 percent of the city with no amenity effect. Finally, all the land rents raised by zoning are eventually confiscated by the absentee landowner.     

On the welfare effects of affirmative actions in school choice

Recent evidence, from both academia and practice, indicates that implementing affirmative action policies in school choice problems may induce substantial welfare losses on the intended beneficiaries. This paper addresses the following two questions: what are the causes of such perverse consequences, and when we can effectively implement affirmative action policies without unsatisfactory outcomes. Using the minority reserve policy in the student optimal stable mechanism as an example, I show that two acyclicity conditions, type-specific acyclicity and strongly type-specific acyclicity, are crucial for the effective implementations of minority reserve policies. I further illustrate how restrictive these two acyclicity conditions are, and the intrinsic difficulty of embedding diversity goals into stable matching mechanisms. Under some regularity conditions, I demonstrate that the minority reserve policy is very unlikely to cause welfare losses on any minority students when the number of schools is sufficiently large.