Mergers in durable goods industries

This paper is concerned with the study of durability as an aspect of competition and market structure that contributes to determining the incentives for mergers. We find that relative to the incentives in industries that produce non-durable goods the durability of the good produced by an industry enhances the incentive for mergers in the presence of intertemporal consistency problems. Further, the analysis indicates that in durable good markets a good antitrust policy should combine a restriction to rent solely with a prudent merger policy.     

Are consumers forward looking? Evidence from used iPhones

This study examines the impact of planned obsolescence – the introduction of new models to make existing models obsolete – on secondary markets for mobile phones. Using data of over 320,000 used iPhones listings on Thailand’s largest online marketplace, we document that iPhone prices decrease with age, around 2.8–3.2% for each passing month. We find no evidence that the price decline accelerates after launches of new models (i.e. obsolescence), lending support to the view that consumer in durable goods markets are rational and forward looking.     

Intertemporal monopolistic pricing of non-durables

This paper provides a tractable analytical framework to study intertemporal equilibria between non-competitive supply and dynamic demand for non-durable goods. The basic hypothesis is that consumers enjoy utility from particular services rather than from commodities. Consumption of the non-durable good follows a dynamic pattern, because it depends on the stock of durables and energy demand provides the prototypical example, e.g., mobility, thermal comfort, etc. are the output of a combination of durable and non-durable goods. Indeed, turmoils in energy markets are to a great deal due to short run inflexibility and this gives this theoretical paper a topical flavour. The outcomes differ substantially across the strategic setups while differences in expectations (myopic versus rational) matter only transiently but not in the long run.      

Risk aversion,order strategy and price formation

Since goods classified as non-durable may, in fact, have a durable component, random-walk tests of the permanent income hypothesis using non-durable data series may yield incorrect results. This paper investigates this problem by first simulating a model of consumption to show the effects of durability on statistical tests of non-durable consumption models, and then by applying these tests to various disaggregated consumption series to determine the effect in practice. The paper finds that there are significant differences in the behaviour of the series within the non-durables and services catagories, and that these differences may be related to durability. The effect of this on standard tests of consumption is discussed.     

Household Demand, Network Externality Effects and Intertemporal Price Discrimination

This paper examines the optimality of intertemporal price discrimination when network externality effects are present in the consumption of a durable good. We conduct our study in two settings. In a model with two household types, utilities are dependent on the cumulative proportion of households that have purchased the durable good. Next, in a model with a continuum of household types, we extend the analysis to the case where households consume both a durable good and a stream of non-durable goods. We show that in both settings, the presence of network externalities facilitates a sales strategy with intertemporal price discrimination.     

A NOTE ON DURABLE GOODS MONOPOLISTS: COMMITMENT TO FORWARD COMPATIBILITY

This note re‐examines the previous results on durable goods monopolists under the time inconsistency problem that the firm tends to make its goods less compatible as a “planned obsolescence” strategy in the presence of network effects. We find that the possibility of the commitment to forward compatibility is profitable to the monopolist, depending upon the degree of technological progress and network effects. Therefore, contractual commitments that are frequently feasible and observed in real‐world markets make the society better off.     

The Timing of Purchases and Aggregate Fluctuations

We study the cyclical effects of the timing of durable goods purchases in a general equilibrium model in which both durable and non-durable goods are consumed and the durable good is lumpy. At the microeconomic level, the timing of durable goods purchases supplies some insulation for non-durable consumption over the cycle. At the macroeconomic level, the timing decisions tend to amplify and propagate wealth and income shocks. Our model also allows for endogenous price determination. When the price of the durable changes due to inflexibility of workers between sectors, the effect of adverse shocks is even stronger and longer.     

Optimal capital accumulation and durable goods production

Summary We have examined the optimal production of a consumer durable with the aid of a capital stock subject to deterioration. We assumed the durable was owned by the producer and its services rented; this is equivalent to assuming sale with perfect foresight and used good markets. If the firm has no more than modest initial endowments of productive capital and durable good, the deterioration of capital induces a hump-like profile of the stock of the durable product, with the top of the hump above the eventual steady state level. The rental price of the consumer durable, therefore, falls from its initial level to a low from which it ascends to its steady state value. This implication might be amenable to empirical testing.Among the possible extensions of this work might be an analysis of the relationship between market structure and the choice of durability along the lines of [7] with allowance for deterioration of the capital stock. Recent generalizations of the traditional model of capital accumulation to take into account obsolescence and maintenance, as in [19], [11] and [13], might also be applied to this model. Lastly, policy questions regarding the consequences of an investment credit tax addressed in [4] and [16] might also be investigated in the context of the model presented in this paper.     

The micro-foundations of intertemporal price discrimination

Summary. This paper investigates the optimality of intertemporal price discrimination for a durable-good monopoly in a model where infinitely-lived households face an intertemporal budget constraint, and consume both durable goods and non-durable goods. We prove that the optimal price of the durable good is not constant, and may decrease or increase over time. Some households may choose to purchase the durable good at a later date, and pay lower or higher prices, since the gain in discounted utility of consuming more of the non-durable good more than compensates for the loss in utility from delaying the consumption of the durable good.Received: 12 March 2004, Revised: 7 January 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: D40, D42, D91.I would like to thank C.D. Aliprantis, the Editor, and an anonymous referee for their generous advice, and constructive comments and suggestions. I have also enjoyed discussions with John Quah on the subject. Research support from the Wharton-SMU Research Centre, Singapore Management University, is gratefully acknowledged.     

DURABLE GOODS MONOPOLISTS AND BACKWARD COMPATIBILITY*

This paper provides an economic analysis on the choice of backward compatibility by a durable goods monopolist in the presence of network effects. We examine the time inconsistency problem faced by a monopolist in its dynamic provision of two compatible products. We suggest an economic reason why, and when it will be strategically optimal, for the monopolist to choose backward compatibility even though it is socially undesirable, and not to choose forward compatibility even though it is technologically possible. We also investigate the compatibility choices with and without price discrimination, and compare market outcomes with the social optimum. Two different social inefficiencies (planned obsolescence) which arise from the viewpoints of optimal consumption and optimal compatibility are discussed.     

Taxation and market power when products are durable

Empirical studies suggest that industries hardest hit by government regulations, such as pollution regulations, are both highly concentrated and manufacture durable products. We analyze a two-period durable goods monopoly model where the firm faces government restrictions in the form of pollution or excise taxes. In contrast to non-durable monopolistic industries, we show that taxes on pollution or an excise tax on output may increase a durable goods monopolist's commitment ability and market power. Indeed, any policy which restricts future output may have the perverse effect of increasing a monopolist's bargaining power with buyers and enhance their profits.The authors would like to thank several anonymous referees and the editor for helpful comments and suggestions on earlier drafts of the paper. Of course, any remaining errors are the sole responsibility of the authors.     

Investment-Specific R and D and the Decline in the Relative Price of Capital

The relative price of capital has declined at a rapid rate in the postwar period.This article provides a candidate explanation for this relative price decline—research and development that are embodied in new, more efficient investment goods. The model mimics the secular aspects of the data, and it has the property that the long-run growth rate of consumption is nontrivially determined as a function of the R and D efforts. Because growth is driven by investment in durable goods in the present model, it seems natural to assume that R and D is product-specific and that the firms producing these goods are long-lived profit centers that internalize the dynamic gains from R and D. A result of this assumption is that the growth rate in the decentralized economy is too low: the so-called business stealing effects that may cause the equilibrium growth rate to be too high in other models is internalized here in the form of planned obsolescence.     

International Trade and Commercial Policy for Durable Goods

Many commodities traded internationally are durable in nature. A dynamic durable goods oligopoly trade model is analyzed. The analysis indicates that the pattern of intraindustry trade depends fundamentally on the quality or durability of the firms' output. Indeed, product durability influences the effectiveness of commercial policy. For example, as domestic product durability rises, an increase in domestic tariffs has a smaller impact on domestic production. In addition, the model uncovers a previously unrecognized avenue by which product quality standards act as a barrier to trade. The results may help explain some of the empirical anomalies found in the literature.     

DURABLE-GOODS MONOPOLY WITH MAINTENANCE

A two‐period durable‐goods monopoly product model with a competitive maintenance market is examined. Three types of monopoly solutions are calculated and contrasted to the social optimum: rentals, committed sales and uncommitted sales. Among other things, it is shown that contrary to the conventional wisdom a seller with committed power does not wish to commit ‘to act like a renter’ when maintenance is performed by buyers. This is due to the different objective functions of the buyer and seller. Furthermore, unlike earlier works, it is shown that the socially optimal amount of maintenance/repair does not occur in any sales case.     

Measuring the contribution of durable goods to the welfare cost of inflation

In this paper, we measure the contribution of durable goods to the welfare cost of inflation, in the context of an endogenous growth model with durable and nondurable goods, where purchases of the latter require only a partial cash payment compared with the former. Unlike existing measures, our proposed welfare measure is computationally efficient and relatively easy to implement.We find that durability adds a significant component to the welfare costs of inflation.     

Time Irreversibility in Consumers’ Expenditure: An Analysis of Disaggregated Data

The literature on testing for the presence of cyclical asymmetry in consumers’ expenditure is extended via the application of tests for time irreversibility to UK data subject to a higher degree of disaggregation than considered in previous studies. The empirical findings reported provide support for a positive relationship between the durability of goods and the asymmetric, and specifically time irreversible, behaviour they exhibit at a fine level of disaggregation. Further investigation of the underlying causes of such time irreversibility exhibit pronounced difference according to the degree of durability, in that nonlinearity in the underlying data generating process is a prevalent feature of highly disaggregated durable good expenditures, but is a less marked feature of semi‐durable and non‐durable expenditures. Prominent among the durable and semi‐durable good expenditure categories exhibiting such nonlinearities are expenditures relating to housing fittings and communication equipment. These findings are consistent with threshold effects in inventory control as well as the effects of credit rationing, such that these expenditures are more likely to be made at times when those constraints are eased by income windfalls or by the easing of credit availability, possibly associated with mortgage (re‐) financing.     

Characteristics of mexican economic growth : Empirical testing of some latin american structuralist hypotheses

This article examines a series of hypotheses about the Latin American industrialization process put forward by the structuralist school of thought, using Mexico as a test case. In particular it examines the relationship between the distribution of income and associated patterns of consumption and industrial structure and its implications on demand-constraints, growth- constraints, employment constraint and multinational control. The results indicate that the modern-traditional dichotomy based on durable versus non-durable consumer goods is not the best way to examine this relationship since the consumption patterns for durable goods do not show a homogeneous behavior when distribution changes. Overall, it was found that growth and employment constraints and multinational control seem to get more exacerbated under greater inequality. With respect to the demand-constraints no definite conclusion can be made because of the mentioned heterogeneity in the response of durable goods to changes in distribution and the lack of information on relative excess capacity and/or dynamic linkages of the different sectors.     

A model of multiple-unit ownership as a diffusion process

This paper develops and tests a new model for multiple-unit adoptions of durable goods based on the diffusion modeling tradition. Multiple-unit adoptions are a major component of sales for many consumer durable product categories. For instance, sales of multiple-unit adoptions for televisions have been higher than both first adoptions and replacement purchases since 1977, while for automobiles, they have represented more than 20% of sales since 1966 in Australia. The structural drivers of multiple-unit adoptions are quite different from either first purchase or replacement purchase. Hence, identifying and modeling the multiple-unit component of sales is important for aggregate sales forecasts. Moreover, consumer requirements for additional units of a product are likely to be considerably different than for the other components of sales (first purchases and replacement purchases). As such, the ratio of the first, multiple, and replacement sales components will strongly influence the product mix requirements of the market.

While forecasting and influencing multiple-unit sales are an important managerial issue, very little attention has been given to multiple-unit ownership in the diffusion modeling literature. The only model available was developed for the purpose of modeling relatively short-term behavior of multiple-unit adoptions, rather than the longer-term pattern of sales. We propose a model of multiple-unit adoptions as a diffusion process.

We apply the model to both color television and automobiles. Analysis of the model's long-term fit and forecasts in these applications provide support for the structure of the new model.     

Efficient Sorting in a Dynamic Adverse-Selection Model

We discuss a class of markets for durable goods where efficiency (or approximate efficiency) is obtained despite the presence of information asymmetries. In the model, the number of times a good has changed hands (the vintage of the good) is an accurate signal of its quality, each consumer self-selects into obtaining the vintage that the social planner would have assigned to her, and consumers' equilibrium trading behaviour in secondary markets is not subject to adverse selection. We show that producers have the incentive to choose contracts that lead to the efficient allocation, and to supply the efficient output. We also provide a contrast between leasing contracts, resale contracts, and different kinds of rental contracts. Resale contracts do not lead to the efficient allocation. A specific kind of rental contract provides the appropriate incentives to consumers.     

An assessment of the contribution of consumer confidence towards household spending decisions using UK data

The European Commission’s consumer confidence indicator (CCI) is assembled from responses to four questions about individual and general economic prospects which form part of the EU’s Consumer Survey. However, concerns may be raised about whether the four components should be constrained to exerting the same influence in a forecasting model of household consumption. Also, in this context, it would seem to be appropriate to permit a role to other information that is obtained from the EU survey. Consequently, in this article, different regression functions are specified in order to assess whether there is any gain to be achieved in predictive accuracy from adopting a more flexible approach towards using the data from the EU questionnaire. With an emphasis upon parsimony, an econometric analysis is performed in conjunction with UK quarterly data on household consumption expenditure. For two categories of spending, it is discovered that the quality of forecasts benefits from having undertaken disaggregation involving survey data beyond those which contribute towards the calculation of the CCI. Indeed, the respective consumption variables (relating to non-durable goods and durable goods excluding vehicles) are seen to be associated with relatively volatile behaviour over the forecast interval, 2008–2013.