中国税收增长快于经济增长的原因讨论综述

从1994年我国进行税制改革以来,税收收入连年高速增长,从1994年的5070.79亿元增长到2006年的37.636亿元,13年增长了7.42倍,年均增长18.63%,尤其是2003年以来连续保持20%以上的增长。而同期国民生产总值(GDP)从1994年的48.198亿元增长到2006年的209 407亿元,增长了4.34倍,年均增长14.92%。从税收弹性来看,从1996年以来,我国税收弹性始终大于1,甚至1999年和2000年连续两年都大于2。从最近几年的情况看,2003—2006年,年均经济增长速度为10%略多一点,同期的税收收入年均增长速度高达22%。     

我国乳制品进口依赖性分析——基于Armington替代弹性

本文主要测算了1995~2015年国产乳制品与进口乳制品之间的短期和长期Armington替代弹性,其值分别为0.06和0.156.虽然进口乳制品的短期Armington替代弹性略小于长期,但是总体来说长短期的替代弹性远远小于1.这表明我国乳制品对国外市场的依赖程度过高.本文据此提出了一些建议,包括拓宽乳制品进口来源国、加大乳制品的对外投资力度等.     

天津财政收入与GDP关系的协整分析与误差修正模型研究

利用协整理论对1978--2006年天津市财政收入与GDP之间的关系进行实证研究,结论是：天津市财政收入与GDP之间存在长期稳定均衡的协整关系和短期动态调整机制;天津市财政收入与GDP之间存在Granger因果关系;通过误差修正模型可以具体解释协整关系背后的内在原因和作用机制。     

中国创新政策的演进——基于扎根理论

将中国创新政策的发展历程分为3个阶段,即1978—1994年、1995—2005年和2006年以后。运用扎根理论分析了各阶段的创新政策,研究了中国创新政策的演进。结果显示:中国创新政策的范式并未发生根本变化;人才和环境营造一直是中国创新政策的重点;科技成果转化政策的加强使得科技与经济社会的联系越来越紧密;政府在创新中的作用发生了根本性变化。     

浙江省行政支出增长影响因素实证研究——基于1985-2006年间数据的VAR分析

运用VAR理论、脉冲响应函数等计量经济学方法与模型,对1985--2006年间的浙江省行政支出的影响因素进行了实证和定量研究。通过研究发现,不同影响变量的短期和长期行政支出产出弹性具有一定的差异性。从短期来看,地方财政收入和物价因素是影响浙江行政支出增长的决定因素;从长期来看,浙江省行政支出与地方财政收入、地方财政支出、GDP增长和物价水平之间存在长期的均衡关系;从动态特征来看,不同变量的行政支出冲击效果差异较大。上述研究结论对预测、控制我国地方政府行政支出增长规模具有较强的现实意义。     

基于Nerlove模型的中国小麦供给反应研究

依据1981—2006年中国小麦播种面积、价格和生产成本的时间序列数据,应用Nerlove模型,测算了我国小麦播种面积对价格和成本的反应程度。研究结果表明:我国小麦播种面积对价格的反应程度短期较小,但长期较大,这说明小麦供给对价格的反应存在滞后性;与价格弹性相比,小麦的成本弹性要小得多。因此,制定小麦政策时,应在稳定小麦生产资料价格的同时,加大对小麦价格支持政策的连续性,以促使麦农形成对小麦价格增长的稳定预期。     

江苏省碳排放与外贸出口间关系的实证研究

测算了1995—2010年江苏省的碳排放量,运用协整检验、建立误差修正模型和进行Granger因果关系分析,对江苏省碳排放量与外贸出口总额的长期均衡关系和短期动态变化进行了分析。结果显示:1995—2010年江苏省的碳排放量增长迅速,但呈明显的波动趋势;江苏省的碳排放量与外贸出口总额存在长期协整关系,其长期弹性为0.229;短期内,前期的非均衡误差以19.04%的比例对当期碳排放量做出修正,以保证碳排放量与外贸出口总额存在长期均衡关系;外贸出口总额是碳排放量的Granger原因,而碳排放量的增加不能解释外贸出口总额的增长。最后提出,加快外贸出口结构调整,减少高能耗、高碳产品出口,是江苏省减少碳排放的重要环节。     

税收、政府支出与中国经济增长的协整分析

本文以我国1979-2004年数据为基础, 运用协整分析、向量自回归、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果检验理论的分析框架, 研究了我国税收和政府支出对经济增长的短期影响与长期关系.研究结果表明,我国经济增长与税收、政府支出之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;在长期,政府支出与经济增长是正相关的,而税收与经济增长负相关;在短期,滞后两期的政府支出是经济增长的原因.     

关于中国税收增长的实证研究

1978年中国改革开放以来,特别是1994年税制改革之后,中国宏观税赋呈不断上升的趋势,从1978年的519．28亿元,到1994年的5126．88亿元,直到2010年的73210．79亿元,税收收入增长明显。我国税收收入增长的趋势良好,一方面由于国内宏观经济的稳定增长与企业较好的效益带来了稳定的税源,另一方面积极的财政政策与产业结构的调整,也对税收的增长起到了不可估量的作用。研究税收增长的意义在于了解影响税收增长的因素,在不断的实施政策的过程中,发现问题,解决问题,最终完善我国的税收制度。本文从我国税收的现状人手,再对各个影响税收增长的因素进行回归分析,找出主要的影响因素,并提出相应的政策措施,为政府制定经济政策提供参考意见。     

服从服务经济优化税收环境

在经济高速发展的今天,税收的经济调节作用越来越突出,工作地位越加重要。闽侯国税局自1994年9月成立以来,始终不渝地致力于服务纳税人,提高服务质量,强化税务稽查,公平税收负担,优化税收环境,取得了显著成效。一是促进了收入的大幅度增长,机构分设第一年的1994年,全县国税系统共组织工商税收入库5682.22万元、比上一年同期同口径增长47.24％,1995年1—10月份已组织工商税收入库5861万元,与去年同期比增19.32％,预计     

出口退税、贸易盈余和外汇储备的一般均衡分析与中国的实证

本文构建了一个简单的大国开放经济一般均衡模型,从理论上探讨了外汇储备从贸易盈余时的短期均衡到贸易平衡时的长期均衡的动态变化过程,并在此基础上量化分析了降低出口退税率对长期均衡时的外汇储备的影响。研究表明,降低出口退税率在短期内对减少贸易盈余和控制外汇储备增量有一定的帮助,但长期来看则与出口产品的价格弹性密切相关,只有降低那些价格弹性较大的产品的出口退税率,才能够有效地减少长期均衡时的外汇储备,否则可能产生适得其反的效果。中国数据的实证研究支持了理论模型的结论。由于中国的出口产品总体缺乏价格弹性,因此,近年来实行的一系列出口退税政策改革在长期内使国家外汇储备出现了一定程度的增加。本文最后提出了相关的政策建议。     

Tax buoyancy in OECD countries: New empirical evidence

A renewed interest in the link between business cycle and tax revenues has recently emerged, especially during economic crises. In this paper, we provide an empirical analysis on 35 OECD countries over the period 1995–2016 to estimate both short-run and long-run tax buoyancies, taking into account the macroeconomic framework, changes in governments’ tax policies, budgetary and political variables possibly affecting how taxes react to GDP fluctuations. By adopting the dynamic common correlated effects estimator, we find that both short- and long-run tax responses are lower than those reported in previous cross-country studies. We suggest that this slightly lower than expected reaction of tax revenue can be interpreted as a reduced power of both automatic stabilization in the short-run and fiscal sustainability in the long-run. Results are robust to possible endogeneity issues between tax revenues and business cycles.     

Residential water demand responds asymmetrically to rising and falling prices

This paper econometrically estimates residential water consumption in Germany between 2007 and 2013 based on a panel of almost 3000 supply areas. In particular, the analysis distinguishes periods of rising and falling water and sewage water prices. The short-run (long-run) price elasticity is estimated at around 4.2% (13%), but water demand appears to respond asymmetrically to rising and falling prices. When prices are rising, the short-run (long-run) price elasticity is around 6.5% (17%). When prices are falling, the short-run price elasticity is not statistically different from zero, and the long-run price elasticity is estimated at around 12%. Additional results illustrate that employing average prices instead of marginal prices results in substantially overestimating the price elasticity. These findings are particularly relevant for utilities and regulators planning to alter the tariff structure towards a higher fixed fee and a lower volumetric fee.     

Optimum Growth and Carbon Policies with Lags in the Climate System

We study the optimal carbon tax in an economy in which climate change, stemming from polluting non-renewable resource, affects the economy’s growth potential. Our main contribution is to introduce and explore the natural time lag of the climate system between emissions and damages to capital accumulation in an endogenous growth setting. This allows us to investigate how optimal climate policy, and its interplay with climate dynamics, affect long-run growth and the transition of the economy towards it. Without pollution decay, a higher speed of emissions diffusion steepens the growth profile of the economy. With pollution decay, this leads to lower short-run but higher long-run economic growth during transition. Poor understanding of the emissions diffusion process leads to suboptimal carbon taxes, resource extraction and growth.     

中国经济转型与货币需求

本文采用"从一般到特殊"的动态建模方法对中国经济转型过程中的货币需求函数进行了再估计,通过引入市场化进程相对指数作为衡量经济转型的制度变量考察货币需求、经济增长、通货膨胀、利率和经济转型之间的相互关系。结果发现,尽管1978—2007年间30年的改革开放使得中国的经济体制和金融体系发生了较大的转型,但通过引入适当的制度变量,仍然可以得到稳定的货币需求函数。本文建立的货币需求动态模型证实了经济体制的市场化转型无论长短期都是拉动货币需求增加的因素,通货膨胀是解释货币量的有效外生解释变量,短期内利率变量对实际货币需求影响不显著,但其确实显著地进入了长期货币需求关系。     

Exchange rate and foreign GDP elasticities of Swiss exports across sectors and destination countries

This article uses a detailed breakdown of Swiss trade flows to identify how the impact of the two main determinants of Switzerland’s exports – foreign demand and the real exchange rate – varies across sectors and export destinations. Our main findings are that (i) both foreign demand and exchange rate elasticities vary substantially across both export sectors and export destinations. (ii) Foreign demand trends are more important for structural considerations than the exchange rate. This is due to the fact that exports of the two largest export sectors are relatively sensitive to long-run foreign demand developments while they are relatively insensitive to changes in the exchange rate. (iii) The sectoral structure of Switzerland’s exports has shifted towards goods that have a lower short-run demand elasticity and a higher long-run demand elasticity. Goods exports are thus less influenced by business cycle fluctuations while they benefit more from long-term growth trends. (iv) The export share of sectors with a relatively low exchange rate elasticity has increased. However, this result is mainly driven by the strong rise in exports of chemicals and pharmaceuticals as well as precision instruments and watches, which are also the two important sectors responsible for the Swiss trade surplus.     

金融资产与实物资产对城镇居民消费影响的差异性研究

本文在相关资料基础上,对我国城镇居民持有金融资产与实物资产进行了重新核算,并采用ARDL-UECM模型计量分析了长短期内金融资产、实物资产对消费影响的差异性。结果表明:金融资产长期内对消费支出存在较弱的抑制作用,短期内存在较弱的促进作用;而实物资产长期内对消费存在有限的促进作用,短期内对消费存在较强的促进作用。产生这种差异的原因主要是:超额比重预防性储蓄导致金融资产对居民消费产生长期扭曲,以及过高自有住房率在房价攀升时只能提高短期边际消费倾向,长期则有限。现阶段只有降低超额比重预防性储蓄及抑制过高的房价才能进一步提高城镇居民的资产财富效应。     

Company tax reform with a water's edge

This paper analyzes the effects of switching from a corporate tax system based on separate accounting (SA) towards a system in which two countries form a formula apportionment (FA) union while a third country sticks to SA (water's edge). Our analysis draws a positive picture on the water's edge regulation. In the short-run, for given tax rates, the transition from SA to FA is likely to reduce profit shifting from the FA union to non-FA tax havens. In a long-run tax competition analysis, we find a negative water's edge externality under FA that tends to be less detrimental than the profit shifting externality under SA and may offset other externalities under FA.     

The International Transmission of Tax Policies In A Dynamic World Economy*

The international transmission of tax shocks are analyzed in a two-country infinite-horizon representative agent framework. the viability of the tax regimes, arising from the arbitrage conditions characterizing equilibrium in a perfect world capital market, is emphasized. Conditions for both short-run and long-run viability are derived, and the two polar regimes of source-based and residence-based taxation are discussed. In general, the former is found more likely to satisfy the viability conditions than the latter. With equity financing, the long-run viability of residence-based taxation is likely to require the harmonization of tax and/or dividend policy. the main features of the dynamic adjustment paths following a tax increase are characterized.     

农村社会保障与农村居民消费的关系——基于中国数据的经验分析

多角度对中国农村社会保障支出与农村居民消费支出的关系进行实证研究,并运用推导均衡弹性进行估算长期均衡弹性.分析表明,短期内农村社会保障总体上对居民消费具有挤出效应,局部地区存在差异性,长期而言农村社会保障总体和局部对居民消费均起到正向促进作用.