对当前进行纳税评估的研讨

对于当前的纳税评估,由于纳税评估独特性,存在各类不同的问题,对其做以分析及改进是税务部门工作中的重要组成部分.本文主要对于当前进行纳税评估的不同状况做一个研讨,并从评估模型入手,做简要的分析及探讨.     

朴素贝叶斯分类器的改进

朴素贝叶斯分类器是一种简单而高效的分类器,但是它的属性独立性假设使其无法表示现实世界属性之间的依赖关系,以及它的被动学习策略,影响了它的分类性能。本文从不同的角度出发,讨论并分析了三种改进朴素贝叶斯分类性能的方法,为进一步的研究打下坚实的基础。     

税收征管流程重组、纳税评估与税收流失——基于2004～2013年的省际面板数据实证研究

本文旨在探究中国税收征管制度变革对税收流失的影响机制及影响效应,采用多指标多因素潜变量模型估算各省的隐形经济规模,用于衡量相关联的税收流失规模。进一步通过构建计量经济模型,采用纳税评估户数和评估环节补缴税款数额作为征管制度改革的代理变量,检验了征管流程改革带来的征管效率提高效应。研究发现:税收流失呈现"倒U"形状,在20世纪90年代中后期各省由隐形经济带来的税收流失在达到最大值后普遍出现了下降;实证检验结果验证了纳税评估不仅直接减少了税收流失,同时纳税评估增强了传统的稽查效果,间接缩小了税收流失规模。     

纳税评估方法及评估结果处理

纳税评估是税务机关运用数据信息对比分析的方法，对纳税人的扣缴义务人纳税申报情况的真实件和准确性作出定性和定量的判断，并采取进一步征管措施的管理行为纳税评估工作遵循强化管理、优化服务；分类实施、因地制宜；人机结合、简便易行的原则。     

同步优化思想在个人信用评估中的运用

在对目前个人信用评估方法分析的基础上,提出了对于信用评估的重要指标提取和模型参数选择这两个过程进行同步优化的方法,利用评估指标和评估模型参数的互相依赖关系来提高整个信用评估系统的分辨能力,并以支持向量机(SVM)为模型进行了实证检验。结果表明,同步优化方法能更好地提高模型整体的性能,分类正确率有明显的提高。     

BLP模型发展及其在产业组织应用综述

产业组织理论问题的实证研究方面,以往简约式方法侧重于分析变量之间的因果关系,难以辨别问题背后的变化机理,从而影响其在政策评估、福利分析中的应用。近年来,随着新实证产业组织研究范式的兴起,结构模型的研究受到国内外学者的广泛关注,并成为新实证产业组织问题研究的前沿方法。BLP模型基于供需关系估计需求和成本参数,估计得到的结构参数更加贴近现实,能够进行均衡及福利分析,合理地评估产业政策,其应用是新实证产业组织研究的焦点问题。通过全面细致地解释BLP模型的原理、方法、发展脉络和研究现状,分析其特点和优势,梳理了BLP模型的应用领域,为产业组织理论问题的实证研究提供方法依据。最后,根据现有研究提出模型不足以及未来的研究方向。     

AR模型的贝叶斯分析及其应用

在经济时间序列分析中,AR模型作为自回归移动平均序列模型的一个特殊情况,应用最为广泛。在结合贝叶斯参数估计方法的前提下,分析介绍时间序列AR模型的条件似然函数以及相关模型参数的共轭先验分布,并在此基础上,重点研究了正态-伽马先验分布情况下该模型的贝叶斯推断理论,再通过选取江苏省的进出口的相关样本数据,运用WINBUGS软件进行AR模型的实证应用分析。     

供应链风险评估中贝叶斯网络的应用

由于供应链系统涉及实体元素多,不确定的环境和因素复杂多变,在构建供应链体系贝叶斯网络风险评估模型时存在网络结构构造繁琐、易受主观因素影响等缺点。因此,在讨论联合事件树分析法和故障树分析法构建贝叶斯网络结构的可行性及方法的基础上,构建了供应链失效体系贝叶斯网络模型,对供应链失效风险进行了评估。证实了该方法下所构造的贝叶斯网络模型更有利于对供应链失效风险进行评估与管理。     

论纳税服务绩效评估体系构建

纳税服务绩效评估作为持续改进和提高纳税绩效的一种新的管理理念和方法,是落实服务责任、改进服务管理的一个行之有效的工具。在分析服务质量要素、质量评估的基础上,通过国内外纳税服务绩效评估比较分析,提出建设中国纳税服务绩效评估体系新思路。     

供给侧改革下科技社团公共服务供给绩效研究

近年来我国社会组织积极参与公共服务,但各类社会组织参与效果有所不同,同时,社会各界也缺乏对社会组织提供公共服务绩效水平的客观科学衡量方法。为此,选取多层次模糊分析法构建了一套多层次评估体系,用于评估科技社团公共服务供给绩效水平,并对武汉市科技社团进行了实证分析。结合实证模型结果,深入探析了当前武汉市科技社团公共服务供给的绩效水平及现实困境,并有针对性地提出了对策与建议。     

基于DEA方法的税收征收效率研究──以湖北省国税系统为例

税收征管效率是税务部门的征税以尽可能低的税务行政成本,取得尽可能多的税收收入,这就需要将征税的"产出"与"投入"结合起来综合考量,DEA分析方法正是进行相对效率研究的有效途径。本文在审慎选取输入指标和输出指标的基础上,利用湖北省国税系统的统计数据,通过DEA模型,得出税收征管效率的评价与改进,并给出相关政策建议。     

EQUILIBRIUM SEARCH AND TAX CREDIT REFORM

An empirical equilibrium job search model with wage posting is developed to analyze the impact of U.K. tax reforms. The model allows for a rich characterization of the labor market, with hours responses, accurate representations of the tax and transfer system, and both worker and firm heterogeneity. The British Working Families' Tax Credit and contemporaneous reforms are predicted to increase employment, with equilibrium effects found to be relatively modest. The model is used to assess the impact of alternative policies, with equilibrium effects shown to become important as the generosity of tax credits is increased.     

效用最大化模型与中国个人所得税的治理

随着个人所得税收入的快速增长，如何通过强化对个人所得税的管理以减少税收收入的流失，已经成为政府亟待解决的重要课题。针对中国个人所得税的税制不健全、处罚措施力度薄弱、公民“纳税”意识淡薄等问题，我们可以通过改革税制、加大惩罚力度、改革税收征管模式等措施加以改善和解决。     

税收与二、三产业互动关系的实证研究——基于省际面板数据的PVAR估计

税收与经济的互动关系,一直是学界关注的热点话题,但从实证角度来分析二者之间的作用方向、反应强度、反应时滞的尚不多见。文章首先从理论上构建了税收与二、三产业之间的相互传导机制;然后以1994-2011年全国30个省市的年面板数据为基础,运用面板数据估计、格兰杰因果检验和面板向量自回归模型等方法,实证分析二、三产业与税收之间的互动关系。结果表明:二、三产业与税收互动关系明显;税收对二、三产业的调控作用显著,且对第三产业的调控作用更大;二、三产业对税收的影响具有滞后性,而税收对二、三产业的影响是即时的。最后,根据理论和实证分析结果,提出了若干结论和相应的建议。     

Tax decentralization,labour productivity,and employment in OECD countries

Tax decentralization should improve the efficiency of local governments and ultimately boost output growth. However, the empirical evidence is mixed. Decomposing output growth into labour productivity and employment growth, we show that the ultimate effect of fiscal decentralization on growth depends on which factor prevails, thus rendering the direct estimation of tax decentralization on growth ambiguous. Using an instrumental variable approach, with instruments based on institutional similarities and geographic distance, the empirical analysis on a sample of 20 OECD countries shows that the positive and significant effect of tax decentralization on the employment growth rate is offset by the reduction of labour productivity growth, resulting in the absence of any statistically significant effect on output growth.     

税务代理制度建构与税收通则法条文设计

税务代理涉及纳税主体权利保护、征税主体的行政效率以及一国税制的有效运行和完善,我国《税收基本法（税收通则法）》应该对其加以规范,学者对此也有不同建言。文章通过对税务代理制度建构的法理分析,对照典型国家税务代理立法例,分析了我国现有税务代理制度运行中存在的主要矛盾和问题,提出了完善我国税务代理制度的建议,并拟订了《税收基本法（税收通则法）》有关税务代理的具体条款。     

Leverage and firm value

Three highly cited studies with over 6000 citations collectively report a negative relationship between the market value of the firm and leverage. Such empirical findings clearly contradict the hypothesis of leverage adding value to the firm and an optimal capital structure that maximizes firm value—these findings have yet to be resolved. Employing a sample of 3,768 firms consisting of 39,015 observations, a stochastic frontier analysis was used to assess the relationship of leverage among other capital structure factors with firm value. It was found that in general the use of leverage promotes firm value, consistent with the trade-off theory and that the inverse relationship between leverage and firm value was a temporary occurrence and is likely attributable to firms employing tax loss carrybacks in response to the 1986 Tax Reform Act. The estimates of technical efficiency indicate that many firms can do more to increase their value, the sample as a whole improves efficiency (value) over the sample period. The findings reconcile the reports of leverage decreasing firm value as reported in Baker and Wurgler, Fama and French, and Habib and Ljungqvist. The empirical findings suggest prior observation was a due to a decline in the value of the tax shield generated by leverage after the Tax Reform Act of 1986. Specifically, tax carrybacks extended the pre-Tax Reform Act of 1986 tax shield value to 1991 and after 1991 the tax shield value declined.     

Equilibrium conditions in corporate tax competition and Foreign Direct Investment flows

We consider a collection of countries which attempt to maximize their corporate tax revenue, the latter being viewed as a function of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflow and the Effective Average Tax Rate (EATR) which each country sets for itself. Under a model that assumes a direct influence of tax differentials on the flow of FDI, each country's decisions are naturally ‘coupled’ to those of others, leading to a non-cooperative game in which countries–players compete for FDI inflows by sequentially altering their tax rates. Their decisions are made via a differential equation-based model used to predict the effect of tax rate changes on a player's share of FDI inflows. Our model, calibrated using empirical data from 12 OECD countries for the period 1982–2005, combines FDI inflow and tax-rate differentials to arrive at a “steady-state” FDI inflow share for each player, given its competitors' corporate tax rates. We explore the game's equilibrium, including the question of whether equilibrium necessarily implies a ‘race to bottom’, with low corporate tax rates for all players.     

公共服务满意度、税制公平与纳税遵从——来自中国的证据

公共服务与税收公平是影响纳税遵从的重要因素。基于中国背景,将公共服务满意度、税制公平与纳税遵从纳入公平理论框架分析三者之间的作用机制后发现:公共服务满意度影响纳税人对税制公平的评价,无论是对政府部门的日常行政服务还是其他公共部门的基础公共服务而言,公共服务满意度越高,纳税人对税制公平的评价就越高;同时,税制公平对纳税遵从有正向影响,纳税人对税制公平的评价越高,其纳税遵从度就越高;税制公平评价在公共服务满意度与纳税遵从之间发挥着中介的作用。因此,现阶段提高我国公众纳税遵从度可以从改善公共服务和强化税制公平两个角度入手。     

An analysis of capital gains tax-induced earnings management

Since 1974, there have been four changes in the corporate tax rate on net capital gains. In each instance a firm had an incentive to alter its capital gains taking in order to maximize its after-tax cash flows. This paper presents a longitudinal analysis of firms' responses to the four rate changes and in doing so provides additional evidence regarding tax-induced earnings management. Most studies analyze firms' responses to tax law change in one tax act (e.g., The Tax Reform Act of 1986), yet firm response to one act might not be the typical response. Results from this study confirm such a phenomenon. The results also provide additional evidence on the association of firm characteristics with tax-induced earnings management.