新兴经济体发展对国际社会的影响力研究

当今世界经济呈现多极化趋势,新兴经济体成为世界经济增长的主要动力,对世界政治经济格局产生深刻影响。本文阐述新兴经济体在政治、经济、社会等各方面发展状况,分析新兴经济体的发展对国际社会的影响力。新兴经济体的发展促进了世界经济、国际贸易的稳步发展和产业结构调整,为消除世界范围的贫困和维护世界和平做出了积极的贡献,为发展中国家加快发展和加强“区域化”多边合作提供了可借鉴模式,同时对全球治理结构转型和国际秩序重塑产生一定影响。     

加拿大对发展管理的构思与实践--不列颠哥伦比亚省温哥华市的案例研究

文章旨在介绍加拿大城市开发的管理思路和模式,探求一些在不列颠哥伦比亚省政府规划控制指导下的土地使用与开发的管理方法;详细讨论了温哥华市的区域性规划,即温哥华市的可居住性区域战略规划.因其目的意在努力协调自然环境保护和城市迅速发展之间的关系,所以加拿大人把它看作是一个富于创新意识的规划.此外,这一规划理念将有益于中国的各城市,中国的规划师们去尝试解决相类似的问题,如城市化与自然环境保护的平衡问题.     

Counting Groves-Ledyard equilibria via degree theory

We study the Groves-Ledyard mechanism for determining optimal amounts of public goods in economies whose agents have the most general class of preferences for which a Pareto amount of public goods can be computed independently of income distribution. We use degree theory on affine spaces to show that the number of equilibria in such economies grows exponentially as the number of agents in the economy increases. The large number of equilibria in such simple economic models raises doubts as to whether the Groves-Ledyard mechanism is a workable solution to the Free Rider Problem since individuals may have incentives to falsify their preferences in order to drive the adjustment process to a preferred Nash equilibrium.     

Growth Empirics in Panel Data Under Model Uncertainty and Weak Exogeneity

This paper considers panel growth regressions in the presence of model uncertainty and reverse causality concerns. For this purpose, my econometric framework combines Bayesian model averaging with a suitable likelihood function for dynamic panel models with weakly exogenous regressors and fixed effects. An application of this econometric methodology to a panel of countries over the 1960–2000 period highlights the difficulties in identifying the sources of economic growth by means of cross‐country regressions. In particular, none of the nine candidate regressors considered can be labeled as a robust determinant of economic growth. Moreover, the estimated rate of conditional convergence is indistinguishable from zero. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Uncertainty, the structure of production and the pattern of trade of centrally planned economies

Conclusions In this paper we have demonstrated that terms of trade uncertainty imposes a welfare loss on a centrally planned economy by reallocating resources toward the production of import substitutes and domestic consumption of exportables and a consequent decrease in the volume of trade. We have also shown that the centrally planned economies have developed a number of institutions, such as trade agreements and pricing rules, designed to minimize the losses caused by terms of trade uncertainty. Finally, we have suggested that the behavior of these economies during the post-Warperiod is consistent with welfare maximization under terms of trade uncertainty.I am indebted to Edward A. Hewett and Paul N. Rappoport for their assistance and comments at various stages of my work on this paper. Any errors and all opinions are entirely my responsibility.     

The non-observed economy and economic growth: A meta-analysis

Academics, politicians, the public in general and researchers have great interest in the non-observed economy. However, there is divergence in its definition, accounting methodology and economic effects. In this paper we conduct a meta-analysis on the empirical literature that estimates the impact of the parallel economy on economic growth. We conclude that there is no publication bias and that the average effect of the parallel economy on economic growth is insignificant. However, the reported effects differ considerably with the type and number of countries included in the sample of primary studies, the structure of the data, the methodology used to measure the parallel economy, the number of citations of primary studies, and the year they were published.     

Impact of Islamic banking development and major macroeconomic variables on economic growth for Islamic countries: Evidence from panel smooth transition models

This study examines the nonlinear relationship between Islamic banking development, major macroeconomic variables and economic growth in Islamic countries. Using the panel smooth transition model, the results show a positive nonlinear relationship between Islamic banking development and economic growth. Moreover, the relationship between the macroeconomic variables and economic growth is asymmetric and regime-dependent. Further, by using the dynamic panel quantile model, we show that for many cases the Islamic banking variables lead economic growth across the quantiles. More specifically, foreign direct investment, oil production and inflation have a positive impact on economic growth during the normal financial development state, while government consumption, one-lag economic growth, terms of trade and financial development have a negative impact on economic growth for this state. The human capital index, education and the rule of law have an insignificant impact, regardless of the prevailing regime. The results for the separated oil-importing and oil-exporting economies are generally consistent with the combined sample regarding the Islamic banking development variables. As for the macro variables, they have a positive and significant (insignificant) effect on EG for the oil-importing (oil-exporting) economies for almost all models.     

Effects of Schumpeterian and Kirznerian entrepreneurship on economic growth: panel data evidence

Abstract

The relevant literature recognises Schumpeterian and Kirznerian entrepreneurship as mechanisms that can impact economic growth. This article seeks to explore the effects of these two types of entrepreneurship on economic growth across the three GEM (Global Entrepreneurship Monitor) economic ecosystems (factor-driven economy, efficiency-driven economy, innovation-driven economy). Using different databases, we applied unbalanced panel data for 43 countries (2009–2013). By estimating the econometric models, we were able to calculate the effects of these two types of entrepreneurship on economic growth in the three different types of economy. In terms of the overall model for GEM economies, neither Schumpeterian nor Kirznerian entrepreneurship return any statistically significant effects on the Global Competitiveness Index or on GDP growth. However, the Total Early-Stage Entrepreneurial Activity variable generates a positive effect on the Global Competitiveness Index. The results presented in this paper provide insights into entrepreneurship and the GEM entrepreneurial economic ecosystems.     

中国城市聚集经济实证分析:以天津市为例

聚集经济在城市经济及区域经济研究中占核心地位,它直接体现城市及区域空间结构的经济效率以及竞争力.本研究利用卡利诺模型来对1987年至2001年期间天津市聚集经济进行实证检验.其分析结果表明:在1990年至1994年间天津市呈现出正的聚集经济效应;在1996年至2001年期间呈现出负的聚集经济效应,就是聚集不经济;最近五年聚集经济呈现出上升趋势,相当靠近于1,2001年的聚集经济系数为0.984.本研究的分析结果表明,以工业为主的天津市城市经济效应并不明显,但是,最近天津市工业的总体效应是较良好的,即将能够创造出一些空间外部经济效应.     

A channel model of investment decision: An intertemporal planning approach

The paper considers some theoretical implications of the Oslo-Cairo intertemporal planning model (the channel model). A version of the channel model with private and public investment projects is developed. The optimality properties of the model are derived. It is shown that: (i) Pareto solution can be supported by competitive prices and (ii) a ranking criterion can be constructed in the spirit of cost-and-benefit analysis. The results brings the channel model theoretically in line with the classical resource allocation models.This paper is a revised and abridged version of Chapter Two of my doctoral dissertation at the University of Kansas. I wish to thank Professor Mohamed El-Hodiri, Chairman of my thesis committee, for his guidance and support and for introducing me to the theory of optimal control with delays. I would also like to thank Professors Van Vleck, Paul Comolli, David Burress and Tom Weiss for their helpful suggestions. The paper has benefited substantially from the comments provided by anonymous referees. I remain responsible for all errors and inaccuracies.     

Myopia and monetary equilibria

In an infinitely lived, representative individual economy, important properties of competitive equilibria, such as determinacy and the non-existence of monetary equilibria, are not robust to the introduction of myopia. An individual is myopic if, at each date, he plans consumption only for that date and few periods that immediately follow; that is, his planning horizon, n, is finite. Equilibria with myopia can display real indeterminacy and allow for monetary as well as non-monetary steady states; thus, they share some of the features of equilibria in economies of overlapping generation. The equilibrium price dynamics (but not the consumption dynamics) of an exchange economy with extreme myopia, n = 1, are identical to the dynamics of an overlapping generation economy with two-period lives.     

Analysing Place and Place‐making: Urbanization in Suburban Oslo

Despite developments within planning theory challenging the ideal of the rational master plan it may be argued that there is still use for the production of knowledge through analysis in planning. However, the cultural complexity of today's planning contexts, and a move towards governance and entrepreneurial policies, makes it difficult to make places, to achieve social welfare and sustainability. Traditionally, the analysis of places has been done by architects and planners focusing on physical form, having an essentialist perspective of place resembling the theory of genius loci. In Norway, the planning authorities refined this methodology in the 1990s. This approach is, however, not in tune with a progressive view of places as multiple and dynamic social constructions, and may be accused of ‘symbolic violence’. If one is to take this view seriously and still be able to make plans, planning must also be based on other types of knowledge. In this article I argue for a socio‐cultural approach to reveal social representations and practices that make a place. I use the case of place‐making in Sandvika, a suburban ‘minicity’ outside Oslo, as an example of how a constructivist understanding differs from and may supplement an essentialist approach.     

Credit contracts in the G.D.R.: Decentralized investment decisions in a planned economy

Conclusion In this paper we have described the process by which an industrial enterprise or kombinat negotiates a contract for credit with which it may finance investment projects as well as the administrative preconditions which are typically required for and the stipulations which are sometimes imposed by means of such contracts. We have shown these preconditions and stipulations serve to shape the material incentives of the enterprise management in favour of more efficient projects and in favour of efficient implementation of planned projects. Our analysis has pointed out that the interest rate cannot be used exclusively to fashion the correct incentive system, and that therefore these administrative controls may in many cases be optimal planning devices. This paper is therefore an important contribution to the western planning literature which has typically presumed that the interest rate should be the preferred rationing mechanism.Our explanation of the role which these preconditions and stipulations in credit contracts play can contribute as well to a deeper understanding of the historical development of the planning system in the GDR. The history of investment financing exhibits a gradual development of the role of enterprise responsibility for initiating and designing projects and this has been parallelled by the development of the system for negotiating credit contracts between economic agents such as bank branches and enterprises and the use of more intricate incentive systems in such negotiations. Socialist authors have emphasized the importance of the development of contracting as a component of the planning system; we have shown in this paper how this development has been used to make the system of investment planning more effective. At the same time, we have identified some of the real bounds against which such a system of administrative incentive structures operate within a socialist economy: the history of the enterprise contribution to financing investment projects has been identified as an important subject for a case study in the history of socialist nations attempting to identify this boundary.I would like to thank the faculty of the Economics Section at Humboldt University in Berlin for the generous assistance which they gave to me during my research visit there in the Autumn of 1983. I am especially grateful to Professor Karlheinz Tannert for the many hours of discussions which guided me in my studies and without whose assistance this work could not have been completed. My thanks extend as well to Professor Stoll and Dr Lemke of the Staatsbank for their co-operation, to the staff of the libraries at the Economics Section of Humboldt University, the Hochschule fur Okonomie—Bruno Leuschner, and the Staatsbibliothek, for their assistance, and to Dr Heidrich for his aid and friendship.This research was supported by a grant jointly funded through the Ministry of Higher Education in the German Democratic Republic and the International Research and Exchanges Board in New York     

Discussion

I thoroughly enjoyed reading the article by Bhadra et. al. (2020) and convey my congratulations to the authors for providing a comprehensive and coherent review of horseshoe-based regularization approaches for machine learning models. I am thankful to the editors for providing this opportunity to write a discussion on this useful article, which I expect will turn out to be a good guide in the future for statisticians and practitioners alike. It is quite amazing to see the rapid progress and the magnitude of work advancing the horseshoe regularization approach since the seminal paper by Carvalho et al. (2010). The current review article is a testimony for this. While I have been primarily working with continuous spike and slab priors for high-dimensional Bayesian modeling, I have been following the literature on horseshoe regularization with a keen interest. For my comments on this article, I will focus on some comparisons between these two approaches particularly in terms of model building and methodology and some computational considerations. I would like to first provide some comments on performing valid inference based on the horsheshoe prior framework.     

美国金融危机对我国贸易顺差的影响及对策研究

美国金融危机影响已由虚拟经济扩散到实体经济，由发达经济体扩展到新兴经济体。持续多年的贸易顺差是当前我国经济增长的主要推动力，为我国积累了巨额的外汇储备。然而，金融危机导致我国贸易顺差额大幅收窄，FDI连续十个月同比负增长及经济增速放缓。为了应对美国金融危机给我国对外贸易、经济带来的消极影响。为此，建议从加大创新力度，提高出口企业产品附加值，转变出口市场结构等三方面来寻求应对危机的有效办法。     

Supporting others and the evolution of influence

In this paper we study environments in which agents can transfer influence to others by supporting them. When planning whom to support, they should take into account the future effect of this, since the receiving agent might use this influence to support others in the future. We show that in the presence of a finite horizon there is an essentially unique optimal support behavior which can be characterized in terms of associated marginal value functions. The analysis of these marginal value functions allows us to derive qualitative properties of optimal support strategies under different specific environments and to explicitly compute the optimal support behavior in some numerical examples. We also investigate the case of an infinite horizon. Examples show that multiple equilibria may appear in this setting, some of which sustaining a degree of cooperation that would not be possible under a finite horizon.     

Stochastic optimal growth with nonconvexities

This paper studies optimal investment and dynamic behavior in stochastically growing economies. We assume neither convex technology nor bounded support of the productivity shocks. A number of basic results concerning the investment policy and the Ramsey–Euler equation are established. We also prove a fundamental dichotomy pertaining to optimal growth models perturbed by standard econometric shocks: either an economy is globally stable or it is globally collapsing to the origin.     

Near unit root small open economies

The marginal utility of wealth in incomplete markets small open economy models follows a unit root process. I study the nonlinear properties of devices often used to remove the unit root and I find that they generate different dynamics when matching emerging markets. Models with endogenous discount factors reinforce consumption response to shocks and increase the countercyclicality of the trade balance to output ratio. Conversely, models with debt frictions ameliorate the responses of consumption and trade balance. Hence, to generate dynamics similar to those in emerging economies, the debt frictions need to be small, inducing a near unit root behavior in their Euler equations. This difference across models is hidden when matching developed economies because of consumption smoothing and the mild countercyclicality of the trade balance.     

Economic Viewpoint: Economic Models and Economic Forecasting: Ptolemaic or Copernican?

Economic forecasters have come in for a lot of criticism in recent months. But this is not new. The failure to predict the boom in 1988 and ensuing inflation and balance of payments problems led to some serious re-examination of the structure of the main macroeconometric models in the UK. The speed with which the UK economy moved into sharp recession in the second half of 1990- also appeared to catch most forecasters on the hop. This Briefing Paper is not directly about forecasting; it is about macroeconometric models. However, forecasting provides by far the most extensive use of these models. Not all macroeconomic forecasters use a formal econometric model - some City economists find a spreadsheet more than adequate - but those that do find that they are an invaluable aid to clear thinking and provide an effective way of filtering all of the information that is available, in one form or another, about the economy. This paper was originally intended to provide a retrospective review of the development of UK macro-models since the late 1970s, coinciding broadly with my period at London Business School. However, it became clear that there was a need to argue more generally in favour of macro-modelling, given the numerous assaults that this activity has sustained over the last 15 years. I want to demonstrate that the conduct of research in this area - at the very least in the UK - has been, and continues to be, a progressive research strategy in the sense in which philosophers of science use this term. I believe that macro-modellers, because they have an obligation to forecast and to make the forecast public, are closer to how theoretical constructs in economics conflict with the observation of economic events, and provide a more robust testing ground for economic theories than the relatively narrow - though very important - confines of single equation statistical testing, that dominate academic journals. This should not mean that every new theoretical idea should be expected to be able to survive immediately the rigours of testing within an existing macro-model. One of the attractions of recent developments in macroeconomic theory has been an explicit attempt to seek to try to reconcile macroeconomics with micro-economic reasoning and to derive macroeconomic principles from how rational, maximizing individuals can be expected to behave in a market economy. There is always a need periodically to re-examine the basic postulates of any area of economics, especially one such as macroeconomics, which provides the basis for the conduct of national and international economic policy, and for providing explanations for economic cycles. Macro-econometric model building is a worthwhile exercise because it confronts theoretical models of how the macro-economy is supposed to work with the hard lessons of experience. The use of these models for forecasting is therefore crucial to their continued growth and development.