Potential Beneficiaries from Reverse Mortgage Products for Elderly Homeowners: An Analysis of American Housing Survey Data

A variety of reverse mortgage loan programs have been available to elderly households for over a decade. The number of unrestricted reverse mortgage loans issued by the private sector has been quite small. About 12,000 loans have been issued through mid-1992. Some researchers take this to mean that the size of the potential market for reverse mortgages is also quite small. Other researchers claim that current low levels of activity reflect supply and demand problems, but that the potential market is in fact quite large. This paper uses American Housing Survey (AHS) data to estimate the potential size of the market for unrestricted reverse mortgages. The 1989 national AHS shows that there are over twelve million elderly homeowners (age 62 and over) who own their homes free and clear. Depending on their income, age and the level of home equity, the group of households most likely to benefit from reverse annuity mortgages is considerably smaller. As one approach to defining a lower bound of the estimate of potential beneficiaries from reverse mortgages, we count the number of homeowners in a prime group consisting of the older elderly, aged 70 or above, with an annual income of $30,000 or less, with home equity between $100,000 and $200,000, who have lived in their homes for over ten years. We estimate that there are about 800,000 elderly households in this prime group. For such households, reverse mortgage payments could represent a substantial percentage increase in income; other definitions of target groups can also be explored using the tables provided. The paper uses the 1985 through 1988 AHS Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) surveys to identify areas that have a large number of elderly homeowners in the prime target group, and in which these homeowners represent a large fraction of the elderly homeowner population. These locations are likely targets for introduction of reverse mortgage products because any campaign can be targeted towards a high concentration of likely eligible beneficiaries.     

New Home Affordability, Equity, and Housing Market Behavior

Recent analyses have reported quite different estimates of the percentage of American families who can afford to buy new homes. However, the differences in the levels of affordability have obscured two more important similarities between the studies: most measures of affordability are closely correlated over time, and none correlate at all with what in fact is occurring in the housing market. One important reason for the latter phenomenon is that affordability measures concentrate on income and ignore wealth. Newly available data from the Annual Housing Survey makes it possible to estimate the equity of current homeowners, which is one important component of wealth. With this data, it is possible to compute a new measure of affordability, which more closely corresponds to the actual market behavior of households. This new measure shows a much higher level of affordability than those previously published, and also shows that young families, who have been the subject of particular concern among housing policy-makers, appear to be slightly better off in the housing market than older families.     

Public Real Estate Limited Partnership Returns: A Preliminary Comparison with Other Investments

Real Estate Limited Partnership (RELP) securities have attracted substantial investor interest, but limited research study. This paper, utilizing a very recent database of actual RELP secondary market transactions, provides preliminary evidence regarding the relative performance of RELP securities, as well as the interrelationships between RELP returns and the returns of Treasury bills and bonds and common stock. Results suggest that RELP returns are negatively correlated with common stock returns, but are positively correlated with the rate of inflation. RELP returns do not consistently exceed the rate of inflation nor do they exceed common stock returns. RELP returns also failed to outperform a broadly-based income property index.     

The Gender Gap in Real Estate Sales: Negotiation Skill or Agent Selection?

This study examines differences in net selling price for residential real estate across male and female agents. A sample of 2,020 home sales transactions from Fulton County, Georgia, are analyzed in a two‐stage least squares, geospatial autoregressive corrected, semi‐log hedonic model to test for gender and gender selection effects. Although agent gender seems to play a role in naïve models, its role becomes inconclusive as variables controlling for possible price and time on market expectations of the buyers and sellers are introduced to the models. Clear differences in real estate sales prices, time on market and agent incomes across genders are unlikely due to differences in negotiation performance between genders or the mix of genders in a two‐agent negotiation. The evidence suggests an interesting alternative to agent performance: that buyers and sellers with different reservation price and time on market expectations, such as those selling foreclosure homes, tend to select agents along gender lines.     

Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market

The paper uses quarterly indexes of existing single-family home prices estimated with microdata on properties that sold more than once to estimate excess returns to investment in owner-occupied housing. Housing prices and excess returns are estimated over the period 1970:1 to 1986:3 for Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, San Francisco. Using time-series cross-section regressions we test for the forecastability of prices and excess returns using a number of independent variables. Price changes in one year tend to continue for more than one year in the same direction. The ratio of construction costs to price, changes in adult population and increases in real per capita income all are positively related to excess returns or price changes over the subsequent year. The results add weight to the argument that the market for single-family homes is inefficient.     

Homeowner Warranties: A Study of the Need and Demand for Protection Against Unanticipated Repair Expenses

The decision to purchase a home often is made without complete information concerning the structural soundness of the dwelling or the condition of its mechanical systems.
This paper presents detailed information on the nature and magnitude of unanticipated home repair costs on the basis of data obtained from a HUD-sponsored survey of some 1800 households that purchased existing homes two years prior to the survey. The potential market demand for home inspection and warranty programs is estimated on the basis of data obtained from a second survey of approximately 1800 recent home purchasers. Finally, the economic feasibility of two potential government warranty programs is examined and a number of tentative policy conclusions are drawn.     

Competition and the signaling role of prices

In a market where sellers are heterogeneous with respect to the quality of their good and are more informed than buyers, high quality sellers' chances to trade might depend on their ability to inform buyers about the quality of the goods they offer. We study how the strength of competition among sellers affects the ability of sellers of high quality goods to achieve communication by means of appropriate pricing decisions in the context of a market populated by a large number of strategic price-setting sellers and a large number of buyers. When competition among sellers is weak high quality sellers are able to use prices as a signaling device and this enables them to trade. By contrast, strong competition among sellers inhibits the role of prices as signals of high quality, and high quality sellers are driven out of the market.     

Clientele Effects on the Demand For Housing Price Appreciation

If house buyers are segmented by income, one might expect to observe buyers in such markets valuing the benefits of expected capital gain differently. Presumably, individuals experiencing higher marginal tax rates should be inclined to pay relatively more for anticipated capital gain since the opportunities of sheltering such income from taxation are greater. This paper attempts to identify a proxy for expected capital gain by using the hedonic price methodology to predict a recent price series for each housing unit in a sample of sales. That proxy is then used to determine an individual buyer's marginal willingness to pay for anticipated price appreciation. The results indicate that one cannot reject the joint hypothesis that homebuyers naively extrapolate from prior implied price performance to establish future price expectations and the variation in willingness to pay for that expectation may be a function of the buyer's income. This suggests the existence in housing markets of a phenomenon termed the clientele effect. This effect has been the subject of considerable examination in the finance literature.     

论以税收指数化矫正个人所得税的认识误区

随着我国社会主义市场经济的建立,我国的经济发展将不可避免地面临通货膨胀和通货紧缩循环交替的周期性波动。通货膨胀对个人所得税在财政收入筹集、资源配置和收入再分配等各方面产生了扭曲性的影响。文章通过对比、分析,阐述了税收指数化的概念、特征和原理,论述了税收指数化策略的合理性和可行性,进而论证了以税收指数化矫正通货膨胀对个人所得税扭曲的认识误区。     

Innovation: A data-driven approach

A newly introduced product or service becomes an innovation after it has been proven in the market. No one likes the fact that market failures of products and services are much more common than commercial successes. A data-driven approach to innovation is proposed. It is a natural extension of the system of customer requirements in terms of their number and type and the ways of collecting and processing them. The ideas introduced in this paper are applicable to the evaluation of the innovativeness of planned introductions of design changes and design of new products and services. In fact, blends of products and services could be the most promising way of bringing innovations to the market. The most important toll gates of innovation are the generation of new ideas and their evaluation. People have limited ability to generate and evaluate a large number of potential innovation alternatives. The proposed approach is intended to evaluate many alternatives from a market perspective.     

An experimental study of exclusive contracts

This paper reports results from a laboratory experiment based on exclusive contracts that may theoretically lead to inefficient “naked exclusion” of a potential rival. The data indicate that changes in the number of buyers in the market have no significant effect on exclusion rates but the likelihood of inefficient exclusion is decreased both when a larger fraction of signed buyers are needed to deter a rival's entry and when buyers engage in non-binding communication. These results have antitrust implications both in terms of helping to identify “at-risk” market characteristics and suggesting potential competition-enhancing strategies. A sub-game of the experiment where buyers make signing decisions can be illustrated as a coordination game with the unique feature that payoffs are affected by a separate but interested party (the incumbent seller). I find that the height of the potential function and relevant basin of attraction, especially when combined with quantal response estimation, have larger predictive power in this sub-game than several other equilibrium selection criteria.     

Robust exclusion and market division through loyalty discounts

We show that loyalty discounts create an externality among buyers because each buyer who signs a loyalty discount contract softens competition and raises prices for all buyers. This externality can enable an incumbent to use loyalty discounts to effectively divide the market with its rival and raise prices. If loyalty discounts also include a buyer commitment to buy from the incumbent, then loyalty discounts can also deter entry under conditions in which ordinary exclusive dealing cannot. With or without buyer commitment, loyalty discounts will increase profits while reducing consumer welfare and total welfare as long as enough buyers exist and the entrant does not have too large a cost advantage. These propositions are true even if the entrant is more efficient and the loyalty discounts are above cost and cover less than half the market. We also prove that these propositions hold without assuming economies of scale, downstream competition, buyer switching costs, financial constraints, limits on rival expandability, or any intra-product bundle of contestable and incontestable demand.     

Homeownership Effects of Alternative Mortgage Instruments*

Most of the interest in alternatives to the standard mortgage instrument has centered on the ability of the alternatives to improve on the performance of the mortgage instrument over the business cycle. The focus in this paper is on the long-term effects on homeownership rates and associated additional residential construction. The instruments are found to offer potentially large increases in homeownership rates by reducing monthly mortgage payments. Widespread adoption of those instruments causing larger payment reductions would allow around one million more households to become owner-occupants. The demand for new single-family homes would increase over the long run by 3 to 4 percent a year. Homeownership could be further increased by a time-limited subsidy directed at moderate income families.     

An Intertemporal Empirical Analysis of the Renter's Decision to Purchase a Home

In recent years a controversy has developed regarding the responses of different types of families to increases in the relative cost of homeownership. In order to provide evidence on this question, this study employs samples of renters from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to estimate the marginal probability of home purchase and the conditional expectation of the house value to income ratio. These cross-section estimations are performed for two separate time periods: 1968–70 and 1974–76. Among the conclusions reached (by analyzing intertemporal changes in predicted purchase probabilities and value to income ratios) are (1) that first-time homebuyers have not stretched their housing budgets in response to inflationary expectations, and (2) that the probability of purchase by many of these families has declined over time, especially at low income levels.     

Buyer confusion and market prices

We employ a price setting duopoly experiment to examine whether buyer confusion increases market prices. Each seller offers a good to buyers who have homogeneous preferences. Sellers decide on the number of attributes of their good and set prices. The number of attributes bears no cost to the sellers and does not affect the value of the good to the buyers but adds complexity to buyers’ evaluation of the goods. The experimental results indicate that the buyers make more suboptimal choices and that prices are higher when the number of attributes of the goods is higher. Moreover, prices and profits are higher than those in a benchmark treatment with perfectly rational (robot) buyers.     

Borrower Attitudes Toward Alternative Mortgage Instruments*

Much of the existing literature on homeownership assumes that financial markets work well enough to allow households to translate permanent income into effective demand. However, transaction costs, imperfections, and uncertainties all constrain the markets' operation so that people are often forced to choose a quantity of housing stock that diverges from their desired consumption level. Instead of being able to borrow against future income for the down payment or to make monthly payments in a pattern that matches future income, young families in their early years may be constrained from purchasing the size house they desire, and older households may remain in homes larger than they need. In light of these market imperfections, housing and tenure decisions depend not only on permanent income and the relative price of housing services, but also on such mortgage parameters as monthly payment patterns, down payment, and rate of equity accumulation. Models of the demand for housing and homeownership described in the existing literature do not include these parameters of mortgage finance. Mortgage terms are important factors in housing consumption and investment decisions. Because the standard mortgage no longer seems appropriate for all households under all economic conditions, the extent to which alternative mortgage instruments meet the requirements and preferences of different segments of the market becomes an important issue.     

Bilateral strategic groups: The market for nontactical navy information systems

Although recent studies of strategic groups have provided much insight into the nature of intra-industry rivalry, most studies have focused on the strategies of seller firms. In this paper we argue that the bilateral exchange between groups of buyers and sellers in adjacent markets should be made explicit. Within this bilateral context, the market for non-tactical Navy infomation systems is empirically examined. Strategic groups are developed for both seller and buyer industries, and the interaction between these groups are explored over time. In particular, two market interventions, the imposition of industrial funding procedures in 1984 and a Life-Cycle requirement order in 1988, were examined with respect to their impact on seller/customer exchanges and vertical integration strategies. Significant changes in strategies were noted, and explained within a transaction cost framework.     

Consumer demand for food diversity: evidence for Germany

Whereas a large number of empirical studies have been devoted to analysing consumer demand for specific products, much less attention has been paid to the household’s demand for product variety (the number of different products consumed in a specific time period). This paper analyses consumer demand for food variety in Germany. The econometric analysis of 4632 households suggests that variety significantly increases with income and the number of children aged between 7 and 17 years and is significantly higher if the family lives in larger cities in East Germany, and the housekeeping person is not additionally working full-time. A single male household consumes a significantly smaller number of different food products. The significant (and positive) impact of household income on food variety is in line with the hypothesis that consumption evolves along a hierarchical order as income increases.     

Do Homeowners Mark to Market? A Comparison of Self‐Reported and Estimated Market Home Values During the Housing Boom and Bust

This article examines homeowners’ self‐reported values in the American Housing Survey and the Health and Retirement Study from the start of the recent housing price run‐ups through recent price declines. We compare ZIP‐Code‐level market‐based estimates of housing prices to those derived from homeowners’ self‐reported values. We show that there are systematic differences which vary with market conditions and the amount of equity owners hold in their homes. When prices have fallen, homeowners systematically state that their homes are worth more than market estimates suggest, and homeowners with little or no equity in their homes state values above the market estimates to a greater degree. Over time, homeowners appear to adjust their assessments to be more in line with past market trends, but only slowly. Our results suggest that underwater borrowers are likely to understate their losses and either may not be aware that their mortgages are underwater or underestimate the degree to which they are.     

Power and firm profitability in supply chains: french manufacturing industry in 1993

The paper examines the relationships between the power of suppliers and buyers and the profitability of sellers who are situated in supply chains between both sets of firms. A review of the literature on power in exchange relations shows there are several power concepts which may have a different impact on seller profitability and whose impact possibly can offset each other. This may be the source of the conflicting evidence on this topic. A failure to distinguish among the concepts may also lead to an underestimation of industry effects relative to resource effects as drivers of firm profitability. The paper uses a new data base of the Banque de France on French manufacturing industry. The anlayses examine whether different power concepts may be empirically identified and what their relationships are with seller profitability. The findings point to the existence of multiple power concepts and indicate that, in the sample, industry effects are more important than firm effects (as measured by relative market share) in explaining seller profitability. The findings also suggest that buyer power explains a much larger percentage of the variance in seller profitability than supplier power. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.