Collusion Under Risk Aversion and Fixed Costs

We analyze collusion under demand uncertainty by risk‐averse cartels that care about the utility derived from profits. With sufficient risk aversion and non‐trivial fixed operating costs, it becomes difficult for cartels to collusively restrict output both when demand is low and marginal dollars are highly valued, and when demand is high and potential defection profits are high: output relative to monopoly levels becomes a U‐shaped function of demand. Greater risk aversion or higher fixed operating costs make collusion more difficult to support in recessions, but easier to support in booms.     

Risk Aversion and Tacit Collusion in a Bertrand Duopoly Experiment

Recent research has found significant differences in the ability of subjects tacitly to collude, depending on the nature of the strategic interaction (e.g., Cournot vs. Bertrand or substitutes vs. complements goods). We investigate the relationship between subject-specific risk tolerance and tacit collusion in Bertrand duopoly experiments. We find that less risk-averse subjects price higher than do their more risk-averse counterparts, but this relationship is only significant when actions are strategic substitutes. When we analyze pair-level data, we find that non-risk averse subject pairs price significantly higher than do risk averse and mixed pairs in both the substitutes and complements treatments.     

Vertical Exclusion with Downstream Risk Aversion or Limited Liability

An upstream firm with full commitment bilaterally contracts with two ex ante identical downstream firms. Each observes its own cost shock, and faces uncertainty from its competitor’s shock. When they are risk neutral and can absorb losses, the upstream firm contracts symmetric outputs for production efficiency. However, when they are risk averse, competition requires the payment of a risk premium due to revenue uncertainty. Moreover, when they enjoy limited liability, competition requires the upstream firm to share additional surplus. To resolve these trade‐offs, the upstream firm offers exclusive contracts in many cases.     

The Role of Arbitration Costs and Risk Aversion in Dispute Outcomes

The effects of risk aversion and of arbitration costs on bargaining outcomes are investigated using data from 171 simulated negotiations. The results are generally consistent with predictions from a simple economic bargaining model. We find strong evidence that directs costs of arbitration lead to higher rates of agreement. There is only weak evidence the risk aversion is related to the probability of agreement, but negotiated settlements seems to favor the less risk-averse bargainer.     

Local Economic Base, Geographic Diversification, and Risk Management of Mortgage Portfolios

Variability of local economic conditions underlie, in part, the default and prepayment risks of mortgages originated in a metropolitan area. In this study we examine the benefits of diversifying across metropolitan areas for reducing these risks. Employment data for the thirty largest metropolitan areas in the United States, divided into eight industry groups, are analyzed with the aid of factor and principal component analysis to determine if the variances of employment changes across the thirty areas are independent. Independence is investigated to assess the potential for diversification. Mean-variance portfolio analysis is then used to measure the gains from geographic diversification vis-a-vis a set of several alternative strategies for diversification. We conclude that geographic diversification is an important mortgage portfolio objective and that mean-variance strategies outperform the alternative strategies tested here.     

低成本战略和新世纪中国石化工业的风险规避

随着亚太地区正逐渐成为新的全球能源消费中心，我国炼油、石化企业有较大的发展，我国的石油资源供需缺口和对外依存度正在逐年上升，由此带来的资源风险也在逐年提高。文章通过对国际油价变化的市场和政治因素的分析，提出了21世纪的中国石化工业在石油资源、能源消耗、氢资源利用以及资产投资等方面需要采取的低成本战略，以规避石化行业各种风险的到来，保障我国石化工业以致整个国民经济的健康发展。     

Optimal Real Estate Portfolios

In recent years, increasing attention has been paid the problem of analyzing, evaluating and selecting real estate investments within the context of a portfolio. Most approaches simply attempt to adapt existing theory and models from the well-developed literature of securities investments. Most adaptations or extensions to real estate are not without serious problems, however, because of several fundamental difficulties relating to optimization technology inadequacies and a general lack of reliable and consistent market data.
This article deals with the major problems of utilizing some of the classic securities investment models for real estate. Further, a risk-return model is advanced which overcomes most of the fundamental problems outlined earlier in the article.     

考虑渠道权力结构和风险规避的闭环供应链差异定价机制研究

本文研究了渠道权力结构和参与者的风险规避态度对闭环供应链差异定价机制的影响.假设制造商为风险中性者而零售商是风险规避者,利用均值——方差理论得到了制造商的期望利润函数和零售商的期望效用函数,在此基础上探讨制造商主导、零售商主导和垂直纳什均衡3种渠道权力结构下的闭环供应链差异定价策略与利润分配问题.本文还分别比较了不同权力结构下新制造产品和再制造产品的最优批发价格、最优零售价格、制造商的最优期望利润以及零售商的最优期望效用,推导了零售商的风险规避系数对最优价格和最优产量的影响,最后结合算例仿真了渠道成员利润(效用)随风险规避系数和消费者偏好系数等参数的变化规律,结果表明:制造商和零售商形成垂直纳什均衡时的闭环供应链绩效最优,其次是制造商主导的闭环供应链,最差的是零售商主导的闭环供应链.     

企业人力资源外包动因及风险规避策略浅析

企业人力资源管理外包日益受到广泛关注,将企业中"非核心"业务外包给专业的服务商,为企业人力资源管理的科学化、专业化提供了有效途径,而这一外包过程必然会给企业带来一定的风险.文章对企业人力资源外包的动因以及可能会遇到的风险进行了探讨,并提出了基于风险控制的人力资源管理外包策略.     

Historic Returns and Institutional Real Estate Portfolios

This study employs a sample of equity REIT portfolios from 1972–78 to investigate various aspects of real estate returns. Return estimates are derived for the unlevered cash yields by property size, type and location. Based on these data, the effects of certain kinds of diversification on risk-adjusted returns are examined. Finally, historic REIT portfolios are compared to current commingled fund portfolios and suggestions made concerning the benefits of restructuring.     

零售商的风险规避特性和公平偏好对绿色供应链运作的影响

针对市场需求的不确定性,本文通过建立风险规避型零售商与风险中性供应商的Stackelberg博弈模型,供应商为主导者,综合考虑零售商风险规避特性和公平偏好心理对该供应链运作产生的影响。研究发现,当风险规避型零售商不具有公平意识时,零售商的风险规避程度与供应商的批发价、绿色创新投入水平以及供应商和供应链整体的效用正相关;供应商的绿色成本系数的大小可影响风险规避程度对产品售价以及零售商效用的影响。当风险规避型零售商具有公平偏好时,零售商的公平偏好负向影响产品售价、批发价以及供应商绿色投入水平和供应商效用;零售商公平偏好对零售商以及供应链效用产生的影响受到零售商风险规避程度的影响。     

联盟组合:价值创造与治理机制

本文认为,联盟组合是焦点企业战略行为最基本诉求的产物,目的是为寻求扩大价值创造空间,进行价值创新或重构,价值创造和价值专有是焦点企业要着重考虑的两个方面。从联盟组合的价值创造机制及联盟租金分布看,联盟组合战略不仅适用于高禀赋企业,对禀赋较弱的企业同样有效。为达成联盟组合战略目标,焦点企业必须建立完善的治理机制,该治理机制本质上是焦点企业与其伙伴之间互动的规则及规范,是一种界面规则,其中的交易治理是硬界面或界面的硬规则,关系治理可以看做软界面或界面的软规则,知识治理是为了促进伙伴间知识与信息的充分交换与共享,伙伴调整则在组合层面上保障战略的适应性。     

Clustering Methods for Real Estate Portfolios

A clustering algorithm is applied to effective rents for twenty-one metropolitan U.S. office markets, and to twenty-two metropolitan markets using vacancy data. It provides support for the conjecture that there exists a few major "families" of cities: including an oil and gas group and an industrial Northeast group. Unlike other clustering studies, we find strong evidence of bicoastal city associations among cities such as Boston and Los Angeles. We present a bootstrapping methodology for investigating the robustness of the clustering algorithm, and develop a means for testing the significance of city associations. While the analysis is limited to aggregate rent and vacancy data, the results provide a guideline for the further application of cluster analysis to other types of real estate and economic information.     

The Bootstrap Efficient Frontier for Mixed-Asset Portfolios

How much in real estate? To answer this question, uncertainty needs to be introduced into the efficient frontier, so that a confidence interval can be estimated for the real estate weight in a mixed-asset portfolio. Instead of focusing on a single optimal portfolio, this study examines the entire efficient frontier using the traditional point estimate method and the bootstrap simulation. The bootstrap distributions of the estimated weight vectors indicate that their confidence intervals are large enough to render them effectively useless. Once uncertainty is introduced, the efficient frontier becomes fuzzy and the weight vectors become even fuzzier.     

Institutional Portfolios: Diversification through Farmland Investment

This article demonstrates that farmland can enhance the overall performance of institutional portfolios which are currently dominated by stocks, bonds, and business real estate. Unlike previous articles on farmland returns, this article addresses the issue of "smoothing bias" associated with appraisal-based farmland returns. Improved measures of income returns to farmland are also used in developing the estimates of optimal portfolios. Parametric testing revealed that farmland continues to enter the optimal portfolios even for large increases in the variance or for large reductions in the annual returns to farmland.     

Using ‘Electronic Portfolios’ to Challenge Current Orthodoxies in the Presentation of an Initial Teacher Training Design and Technology Activity

The paper examines the extent to which a University undergraduate curriculum initiative provided initial teacher trainees with opportunities to challenge orthodox design methodologies through the production of an electronic portfolio within and extended design and technology activity. It was found that the ‘electronic portfolio’ served primarily as a developmental tool for promoting creative continuity and sound, reflective, design practice within a structured educational design challenge. The portfolio also provided a focus for the development of ‘e’ learning skills as it facilitated the use of new technologies in the compilation of the portfolio. Additionally, the portfolio provided trainees with a means by which they were able to demonstrate their capability to prospective employers. The use of the ‘electronic portfolio’ challenges current orthodoxy and methods routinely employed to present and assess trainees’ creative work, which have been shown to constrain innovative practice. The paper concludes that the use of the ‘electronic’ portfolio was successful in facilitating trainees’ engagement with a creative Design and Technology process.     

Thrift Asset-Class Returns and the Efficient Diversification of Thrift Institution Portfolios

We estimate quarterly return series from March 1984 through December 1989 for 10 classes of thrift assets using the statistical cost-accounting methodology of Hester and Zoellner (1966). We then use these return series to estimate mean-variance efficient frontiers for all thrifts, for thrifts that were well capitalized two years earlier and for thrifts that were insolvent two years earlier. Our results show that neither the asset restrictions existing before nor those in effect after passage of the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery and Enforcement Act of 1989 would have prevented thrifts from reaching most of the portfolios along the efficient frontier. The actual portfolio chosen by well-capitalized thrifts is close to the estimated efficient frontier, while the actual portfolio chosen by insolvent thrifts is located far from the frontier in the high-risk end of investment space. These findings, coupled with the high proportion of nontraditional assets in the actual portfolio chosen by insolvent thrifts, support the hypothesis that moral hazard induced thrifts to take on investments that were excessively risky from the deposit insurer's point of view.     

REIT-Based Pure-Play Portfolios: The Case of Property Types

This article explores a technique for constructing REIT-based pure-play portfolios which replicate the performance of target real estate sectors without direct exposure to non-target sectors. The construction of pure-play portfolios uses a combination of long and short positions, and does not require time-series data for the target sectors. Pure-play portfolios may be useful for hedging, speculation, building custom-designed balanced portfolios, calculating betas for capital budgeting and developing historical performance indices. Performance indices for the four major commercial property-type sectors are presented in this paper. REIT-based sectoral returns are then compared with NCREIF-based returns by property type.     

钻井风险评价技术研究进展

油气钻井作为上游勘探开发过程中的重要环节,作业风险高,投资规模大。钻井风险评价技术对预防井下事故,提高工程效率,保障顺利钻进具有重要意义。文章主要对钻井风险评价技术研究进展进行简要阐述。