Assessing banks’ resilience: A complementary approach to stress testing using fair values from banks’ financial statements

For more than a decade, supervisory banking authorities in Europe and the United States have sought to assess the resilience of banks to adverse economic episodes to safeguard the financial system's stability. They rely on regulatory capital measures like Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) relative to risk-weighted assets in the aftermath of potential economic crises. We propose a new measure of banks' resilience based on financial statements. The fair value margin (FVM) is estimated as the difference between the fair value of assets and the book value of liabilities, scaled by the book value of equity. We find that FVM is positively associated with the surplus or shortfall of CET1 resulting from the stress testing results from 2014, 2016 and 2018. To corroborate the relevance of FVM for supervisory authorities, we compare the ability of the loan component of FVM to predict future credit losses with the capital surplus/shortfall metric derived from the stress test. The findings indicate that the fair value of loans predicts net charge-offs better than stress test outcomes. Therefore, we suggest that FVM could be used as a readily available and relatively low-cost tool to assess bank resilience, thus complementing the stress test exercises.     

From compromise to concept? – a review of ‘other comprehensive income’

This paper reviews how ‘other comprehensive income’ (OCI) entered financial reporting by tracing major Financial Accounting Standard Board (FASB) and International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) projects that required direct entries to equity and describing recent efforts to make sense of the practice. It was the fixation on net income that brought about departures from all-inclusive income, which were repeatedly made over the years without decidedly devoting attention to developing a conceptual basis. OCI was used as a compromise to incorporate current values in the balance sheet, while retaining historical cost principles in the income statement. When the practice was labeled as OCI, it became institutionalized without a clear meaning. A sense-making of the practice then replaced the debates on the adequacy of using OCI and standard setters have realized that additional layers of theory became necessary to explain, for example, reclassification adjustments. Yet, the IASB has made clear in its recent Exposure Draft of a revised conceptual framework that it does not intend to pursue a fresh start in performance reporting that appears to be needed conceptually. Instead, practical considerations, primarily on International Financial Reporting Standards adoption in Japan, seem to lead to another ex-post rationalization of OCI, this time around a conceptually vacuous use of the relevance characteristic.     

Regulation FD and analysts’ vs. investors’ weightings of the cash components of earnings

This paper investigates whether investors’ bias in processing the information contained in the cash components of annual earnings has been reduced, and whether the difference in bias between financial analysts and investors has decreased subsequent to Regulation Fair Disclosure (hereafter, Reg FD). We compare analysts’ and investors’ weightings of the three cash flow components of earnings, defined by Dechow, Richardson, and Sloan (2008), from 1985 to 2008, using historical weightings as benchmarks. Our results show that, in the post Reg FD period, the magnitude of investors’ (analysts’) mis-weightings has decreased (increased), and the differences between analysts’ and investors’ mis-weightings have become smaller. Overall, these results suggest that financial analysts’ information advantages over investors declined after Reg FD took effect, and that investors consequently are less biased in assessing the persistence of the cash flow components of earnings following the implementation of Reg FD.     

Duration of equity overvaluation and managers’ choice to use aggressive underlying earnings disclosure and accrual-based earnings management: Australian evidence

This paper examines whether equity overvaluation duration influences managers’ choice of different earnings management mechanisms and how corporate governance and the Australian Securities and Investment Commission’s underlying earnings disclosure guidelines influence managers’ choices. The study samples Australian Securities Exchange 200 firms from 2009 to 2016. Findings show that on average, firms more likely engage in accrual-based earnings management in the early overvaluation stage. In later stages, firms more likely disclose underlying earnings aggressively to sustain overvaluation. Additionally, firms with a high proportion of independent directors on the board prefer to disclose underlying earnings aggressively to sustain the equity overvaluation; firms with a low proportion of independent directors prefer both accrual-based earnings management and aggressive underlying earnings disclosure to sustain the overvaluation. Moreover, firms that conform to the Commission’s underlying earnings disclosure guidelines use neither accrual-based earnings management nor aggressive underlying earnings disclosure to sustain overvaluation, but non-conforming firms use both mechanisms.     

Do the business cycle and revenue diversification matter for banks’ capital buffer and credit risk: Evidence from ASEAN banks

We examine the association of the business cycle and revenue diversification with the banks’ capital buffer and credit risk for a sample of banks from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region from 1998 to 2018, using 2847 banking firm–year observations. We find that ASEAN region banks react anticyclically in adjusting their capital buffer levels and credit risk. We find revenue diversification benefits and that banks, through revenue diversification, can reduce their credit risk while achieving capital savings when confronting economic downturns. Our results offer support for the Basel III accord. However, the relations revealed are somewhat moderated by the regulatory quality, competition, and phase of the business cycle encountered by ASEAN region banks.     

State ownership and banks’ information rents: Evidence from China

In a lending relationship, a bank with an information advantage regarding its client tends to hold up the borrower and charge higher interest rates. We conjecture that state-owned enterprises (SOEs), with worse information asymmetry, are subject to greater information rents. State-owned banks place less emphasis on information production and hence extract lower rents compared to profit-maximizing private banks. We use the decline of loan interest rates around the borrowers’ equity initial public offerings (IPOs) as the proxy of banks’ information rents. We find SOEs in China experience larger declines in loan interest rates around their IPOs; the central government-controlled Big Four banks exhibit smaller declines in rates they charge, and their rate declines concentrate on loans made to SOEs.     

Analysts’ earnings forecasting behavior surrounding uncertain regulatory events: evidence from the Tax Reform Act of 1986

This study examines analysts’ forecasting behaviour in the presence of significant tax policy uncertainty. The Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA86) was preceded by a lengthy debate, allowing us to investigate how tax policy uncertainty evolves over time. Our results are generally consistent with the intuition that uncertainty precedes the enactment of a proposed tax law while complexity manifests afterwards. Using the repeal of the investment tax credit to identify highly impacted firms, we find that the onset of disagreement among analysts during the debate occurred sooner for highly impacted firms than other firms. We also find that disagreement among analysts was concentrated among highly impacted firms before and after enactment. Given that our sample period precedes Regulation Fair Disclosure, our evidence suggests that analysts relied on private information from management to resolve the uncertainty associated with TRA86 but only for highly impacted firms.     

What influences banks’ choice of credit risk management practices? Theory and evidence

Banks use different risk management practices with varying levels of sophistication. This paper examines the factors that determine the choice of risk-management practices. In a theoretical model, we identify two main determinants for the choice of risk management tools: bank competition and sector concentration in the loan market. We empirically test the predictions of our model using hand-collected data on the credit risk management of 249 German savings banks. The results are in line with our theory: Competition pushes banks to implement advanced risk management practices. Sector concentration in the loan market promotes credit portfolio modeling, but it inhibits credit risk transfer.     

‘Chronic unease’ for safety in senior managers: an interview study of its components,behaviours and consequences

The high reliability literature describes a sense of chronic unease as supporting managers’ ability to deal with (safety) risks. This concept has been proposed to contain five components, namely the traits of propensity to worry, pessimism, and the cognitive abilities of requisite imagination, flexible thinking and vigilance. We study their applicability to senior managers’ experience of chronic unease and explore related behaviours and consequences. Semi-structured interviews (n = 27) were conducted with senior managers from the energy sector. Content analysis identified flexible thinking most frequently, followed by pessimism, propensity to worry, vigilance and requisite imagination. Experience additionally emerged as a theme. Sections that had been coded as flexible thinking were frequently also coded as a behaviour, suggesting it to be a partially observable response to chronic unease. Other behaviours that emerged as related to chronic unease were demonstrating safety commitment, transformational and transactional leadership styles, and seeking information. Chronic unease was described as having positive effects on safety, positive and negative effects on team interaction and negative effects on business and the managers’ personal outcomes. The findings indicate that the five components provide a basis for the measurement of chronic unease and suggest central behaviours and responses that should be considered in its future investigation.     

Does the ownership structure matter for banks’ capital regulation and risk-taking behavior? Empirical evidence from a developing country

This paper applies the two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimator to examine the bi-directional relationship between banks’ capital regulation and risk-taking behavior concerning the impact of ownership structure. We have used a balanced panel dataset of banks from a developing country over the most recent period between 2006 and 2014. The empirical findings of this study suggest that higher capital regulation enhances banks’ stability when it combats with credit risk but higher credit risk often persuades abating capital ratio. Particularly, the key results are as follows: (i) the higher association of minority active shareholding in stability issues is positive; (ii) the higher contribution of active share holding promotes banks’ capital ratio; (iii) the lower ownership concentration prevents credit risk; (iv) private commercial banks are more risk averse and stable than state-owned banks and other type of banks; and (v) notably, Islamic banks show their superiority through overall performance despite their lower capital stability than conventional banks. Besides, no models show significant non-linear relationship between capital regulation and risk-taking except models of stability show a U-shaped relation in capital equation, indicating that when regulatory pressure works in a country then bank lose solvency at the initial stage. Finally, it also provides some imperative policy implications which will be very useful for a wide range of stakeholders.     

Accounting based valuation: a simultaneous equations model for forecasting earnings to proxy for ‘other information’

This paper develops and tests a simultaneous equations model (SEM) for extending accounting based valuation models used in empirical studies. Rather than using analysts’ forecasts, we derive forecasts of operating income from the SEM to calculate the ‘other information’ variable in the Ohlson (Contemp Account Res 11:661–687, 1995) model. The SEM forecasts are based on observable data contained in the firms’ reporting, like order backlog, and other publicly available information. The SEM produces more accurate out-of-sample forecasts of operating income compared to simple benchmark models particularly in years around economic changes and instability, like the years 2001 and 2009. Integrating the SEM forecast as ‘other information’ in market value regressions significantly increases the explanatory power compared to simpler versions without or with single information proxies for ‘other information’. Finally, we find that the SEM forecast is able to explain a major portion of the information advantage of analysts relevant for explaining market values.     

New development: The conundrum of fair value measurement—evidence from the UK FRAB

This article is based on documentation from the UK Financial Reporting Advisory Board (FRAB) relating to the adoption of IFRS 13 Fair Value Measurement. It shows that the development of financial reporting in government involves continuous adaption to new and updated international standards and changing circumstances. Outcomes are influenced by path dependencies and the taking of particular conceptual positions.     

Accounting and litigation risk: evidence from Directors’ and Officers’ insurance pricing

We study whether and how financial reporting concerns are priced by insurers that sell Directors’ and Officers’ (D&O) insurance to public firms. As D&O insurers typically assume the liabilities arising from shareholder litigation, the premiums they charge for D&O coverage reflect their assessment of a company’s litigation risk. Using a sample of public firms in the 2001–2004 Tillinghast D&O insurance surveys, we document that firms with lower earnings quality or prior accounting restatements pay higher premiums after controlling for other factors impacting litigation risk. In addition, insurers’ concerns about financial reporting are most evident for firms with restatements that are not revenue or expense related, are greater in the period following the passage of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act of 2002, and are greater for firms with financial reporting problems that linger. Our results are consistent with past restatements being viewed as evidence of chronic problems with a firm’s financial statements. By analyzing archival data, we can also quantify the effects of other determinants of D&O premiums (such as business risk, corporate governance, etc.) identified by Baker and Griffith (Univ Chic Law Rev 74(2):487–544, 2007a) through interviews regarding the D&O underwriting process.     

Informal institutions and managers’ earnings management choices: Evidence from IFRS-adopting countries

In this study, we investigate the role of informal institutions (religiosity and culture) in determining managers’ choices of earnings management methods (accruals vs. real activities), after controlling for formal institutions (investor protection, enforcement quality and equity market development). Using an ethical perspective, we find that managers tend to choose an earnings management strategy that meets the prevailing social (informal) norms of the environment where the firm is headquartered. Specifically, our analysis shows that firms domiciled in countries with strong religious adherence and high-power-distance cultures prefer to manage their earnings ‘upwards’ through real activities rather than accruals. Overall, our results suggest that informal institutions determine managers’ earnings management choices at least as strongly as formal institutions do. It would therefore be misleading to analyze managers’ choices in managing earnings solely from the formal rules perspective without considering the role of informal constraints or vice versa.     

Do management EPS forecasts allow returns to reflect future earnings? Implications for the continuation of management’s quarterly earnings guidance

Using 18,253 firm-year observations from 1998 through 2003, we build on literature suggesting that more informative disclosures allow returns to better reflect future earnings and test whether management earnings per share forecasts and their characteristics influence the future earnings response coefficient (FERC). We find that FERCs are greater for forecasting firms and when forecasts are more frequent or precise. We suggest that more frequent and more precise forecasts assist investors in better predicting future earnings. Importantly, we find that quarterly and short-term forecasts incrementally increase the association between returns and future earnings beyond annual and long-term forecasts; thus, even short-term, quarterly forecasts allow investors to form better expectations about future earnings. This suggests a benefit of quarterly earnings forecasts possibly overlooked in recommendations from the United States Chamber of Commerce, CFA Institute, Business Roundtable Institute for Corporate Ethics, and The Conference Board to eliminate quarterly earnings guidance.     

Analysts’ earnings forecasts: coexistence and dynamics of overconfidence and strategic incentives

This paper formulates a two-stage model to capture the decision process of financial analysts when issuing earnings forecasts. Our model extends the model of Chen and Jiang [(2005). Analysts’ weighting of private and public information. Review of Financial Studies, 19 (1), 319–355], by allowing for a distortion of forecasts independent of whether an analyst has private information. Using quarterly earnings forecasts, we provide empirical evidence on the coexistence of overconfidence and strategic incentives. Financial analysts overweight their private information and at the same time strategically inflate their forecast.     

Banks’ lending behavior and monetary policy: evidence from Sweden

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the aggregate data about bank loans which may hide significant information about the monetary transmission mechanism. This study, by disaggregating bank loans data and using the relevant interest rates in Sweden, investigates the behaviour of banks after a monetary policy tightening. By using an unrestricted VAR model and impulse response analysis, our results show that a shock on the policy rate affects the main components of the banks’ loan portfolios differently. Initially, banks do not reduce lending to firms and households and they present a sluggish reaction concerning the relevant interest rates. On the contrary, they reduce lending to mortgage credit institutions significantly since real estate lending can be considered as a risky long-term investment. Moreover mortgage credit institutions reduce lending for housing purposes to non-bank public. This reduction is mainly driven by flexible rate loans and loans secured on tenant owned apartments. Consequently, theses actions have a significant effect on real economic activity, by amplifying the initial shock from the tightening monetary policy. The latter result provides evidence of the bank lending channel in Sweden working via mortgage lending and could be very important for policy makers.     

Beyond accounting and back: An empirical examination of the relative relevance of earnings and “other” information

Ohlson (1995) models firm value as a function of book value, earnings, and analysts' earnings forecasts which capture “other” information not yet reflected in the financial statements. Within this framework, stock returns reflect information from earnings and forecasts, each of which is different in terms of reliability and timeliness. For the period 1984–2012, this paper examines time trends and the influence of aggregate market conditions on the relative relevance of earnings and forecasts. In this context, relative relevance is defined as the incremental explanatory power of earnings or forecasts, relative to their combined explanatory power with respect to the cross-section of stock returns. This inquiry is motivated by anecdotal evidence and recent research, which suggests that aggregate market conditions influence the usefulness of accounting information for investors. The findings show that while the relative relevance of earnings has remained stable, the relative relevance of forecasts has increased over time. I also find that the relative relevance of earnings is higher in bad years, i.e. years with low market returns or elevated market uncertainty. Overall, the results reported in this study suggest that despite the increase in the relevance of timely “other” information, investors tend to rely more on reliable accounting information during bad years.