模糊聚类、判优与识别及其在全国各地运输、邮电通信业就业的应用

模糊聚类、判优与识别是模糊分析理论的基础;以模糊聚类为核心,建立模糊聚类、判优与识别的统一理论。模糊聚类分析方法是一种多元统计分析方法,它通过多指标把样本划分为若干类;判优,我们通过—统计量可以确定最优的分类;最后,用择近原则对新的样品识别,归类。文中以全国各地运输、邮电通信业就业人数分布为例来说明其应用。这种方法同样可用于各行各业就业分布情况的分析、归类。     

往复式空气压缩机模糊故障诊断

针对某煤矿空压机站往复式空压机故障诊断的要求,以模糊(Fuzzy)理论为依据,构建了一种往复式空压机模糊故障诊断模型。采用求距离的方法构造隶属度函数,求得待诊断对象对各个典型故障的隶属度,再由最大隶属度原则确定故障原因。该诊断模型可以根据往复式空压机的故障征兆进行有效的故障监测和诊断,可以方便的实现智能诊断。对煤矿上以及其它领域的大型设备状态监测和诊断也有重要参考价值。     

Multiple and Partial Correlation Coefficients of Fuzzy Sets

In many applications, multiple correlation and partial correlation for three or more fuzzy sets are very important, but Chiang and Lin (1999, Fuzzy Sets and Systems 102: 221–226) do not solve this problem. Here, we propose a method to calculate the multiple correlation and partial correlation for fuzzy data, by adopting the concepts from the multivariate correlation model. In order to fit into normal framework, we use empirical logit transform (see, Agresti, [1990, Categorical Data Analysis. New York: Wiley]; Johnson and Wichern, [1992, Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis 3rd edn. Engelwood Cliffs; Prentice-Hall.]) for membership function grades to achieve this.     

Extracting cover sets from free fuzzy sorting data

Assignment of items to multiple categories requires suitable statistical methods. The present paper provides a new approach to solve this task. The concept of fuzzy sets is extended to cover sets (sets of overlapping clusters) in a simple manner introducing a vector of item membership sums. The application of the new concept is exemplified by modifying the fuzzy cluster analysis algorithm of Kaufman and Rousseeuw (Finding groups in data: an introduction to cluster analysis, 1990) to cover set cluster analysis appropriately. Wide equivalence of the numerical problems is demonstrated from Lagrange multipliers and Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions. Additionally, some extensions are introduced to the algorithm to improve its behavior for suboptimal large or small numbers of clusters. The adapted algorithm in most cases reproduces single sortings for correct numbers of clusters. Two applications to empirical free fuzzy sorting data sets are provided. Limitations of the algorithm are discussed.     

Using qualitative approach to forecasting regime switches

Drastic changes (named regime switches) often exist in economic and financial time series causing the forecasting of time series difficult. Hence, we need robust models to detect and forecast the regime switches. Most previous studies apply quantitative methods to forecast time series and regime switches. Contrast to these studies, this study attempts a novel approach to use a qualitative method to forecast regime switches. Fuzzy set/qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), based on fuzzy set and logic theory, yields the relationships between antecedent combinations and outcome. Studies support fsQCA analysis is more proper to reflect the real situations. Hence, this study uses fsQCA to analyze the autoregressive relationships of the upward and downward regime switches in the in-sample data. Then, the relationships are used to forecast the regime switches in the out-of-sample data. Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index is taken as the data for analysis. The empirical results show that fsQCA provides strong predictive validities.     

FMCG分销渠道风险综合评估研究

FMCG市场竞争激烈,分销渠道种类多而复杂,渠道中存在着各种各样的风险。为了最大限度地减少风险对营销渠道和企业的损害,需要一套完整的风险评价体系来评估风险。论文结合模糊数学的理论知识,构建了FMCG分销渠道风险评价指标体系,采用问卷调查法,以武汉城市圈饮料行业为例,运用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法对渠道风险进行综合评估。     

A method for determining customer requirement weights based on TFMF and TLR

‘Customer requirements’ (CRs) management plays an important role in enterprise systems (ESs) by processing customer-focused information. Quality function deployment (QFD) is one of the main CRs analysis methods. Because CR weights are crucial for the input of QFD, we developed a method for determining CR weights based on trapezoidal fuzzy membership function (TFMF) and 2-tuple linguistic representation (TLR). To improve the accuracy of CR weights, we propose to apply TFMF to describe CR weights so that they can be appropriately represented. Because the fuzzy logic is not capable of aggregating information without loss, TLR model is adopted as well. We first describe the basic concepts of TFMF and TLR and then introduce an approach to compute CR weights. Finally, an example is provided to explain and verify the proposed method.     

直觉梯形模糊几何集成算子及其在群决策中的应用

文章首先定义了直觉梯形模糊数及其运算法则,基于这些运算法则,给出了直觉梯形模糊几何集成算子,即直觉梯形模糊加权几何(IT-WG)算子、直觉梯形模糊有序加权几何(IT-OWG)算子以及直觉梯形模糊混合几何(IT-HG)算子。在此基础上,提出了在属性权重已知的情形下专家评价值以直觉梯形模糊信息给出的多属性群决策方法。最后以产品最优设计方案的选择为实例进行分析,所得结果验证了该方法的有效性。     

基于模糊时间序列的预测模型——以上证指数为例

模糊理论使用语义变量本身所蕴含的特性,能减少处理问题时的不确定性所带来的困扰,被广泛的应用于各种领域的研究。首先回顾了基于模糊理论的模糊时间序列定义,对现有的模糊时间序列模型进行分析;在此基础上提出了一种新的模糊时间序列预测方法,以上证指数为对象进行了拟合。从结果看,新的基于模糊时间序列预测方法在MSN、平均误差(%)和标准误差(%)等指标上要优于现有的的预测方法。     

基于直觉模糊集的供应链战略合作伙伴选择

企业建立良好的战略合作伙伴关系可以使供应链产生更强的竞争优势。文章通过对供应链战略合作伙伴的基本原则和影响因素进行分析,建立了合作伙伴的评价指标,运用直觉模糊集广义混合加权集结算子,对合作伙伴选择问题进行了综合评价,并通过实例说明该方法能够很好的解决供应链战略合作伙伴选择的实际问题,具有科学性和可操作性。     

基于三角模糊数比较大小原理的模糊层次分析法在供应商合作伙伴选择中的应用

提出了一种基于三角模糊数比较原理的供应商评价指标体系和多级评价模型，根据模糊层次分析法建立决策递阶层次结构，再依据三角模糊数比较原理隶构建多级评价模型，通过实证分析说明了该模型在供应商评价方面的有效性.     

Modeling the lockdown relaxation protocols of the Philippine government in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: An intuitionistic fuzzy DEMATEL analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic, which started at Wuhan, has shut down world economies, prompting governments to impose drastic lockdown measures of the economy and the society. As these measures are exhausted, non-COVID-19 related issues such as those associated with the mental and physical well-being of people under lockdowns became an emerging concern. As these issues are evident, not to mention the economic downturn, governments are currently looking at designing lockdown relaxation efforts by simultaneously considering both public health and economic restart. Without documented experiences to rely on, governments are resorting to trial-and-error approach in creating a lockdown exit strategy while preventing succeeding waves of cases that may overwhelm healthcare facilities. Thus, this work pioneers the use of the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method with intuitionistic fuzzy (IF) sets along with the domain of public health and the emerging COVID-19 pandemic. The DEMATEL handles the intertwined causal relationships among guideline protocols for the relaxation strategy. The intuitionistic fuzzy set theory addresses the vagueness and uncertainty of human judgments in the context of the DEMATEL. A case study of the Philippine government response for the lockdown exit is presented to evaluate the applicability of the proposed method. Findings reveal that compliance of minimum public health standards, limited movement of persons, suspension of physical classes, the prohibition of mass gatherings, non-operation of category IV industries, and non-operation of hotels or similar establishments are the most crucial protocols for such strategy. These findings offer practical insights for the government to allocate resources and impose measures to ensure their implementation, as well as for developing mitigation efforts to cushion their socio-economic impacts. Policy insights and avenues for future works are also discussed.     

基于数据挖掘的供应商绩效评价系统研究

在数据仓库理论基础上,运用数据挖掘技术和模糊综合评判法,对制造企业的供应商进行绩效评价管理。建立基于粗糙集灰色关联分析的数据挖掘模型,计算零件层供应商绩效,并结合模糊综合评判法获得供应商绩效。该研究为制造企业选择供应商和制定采购计划提供决策依据,对供应链设计具有一定的启发作用。     

自贸区税制优化的一种模糊博弈框架

本文通过模糊博弈的方法研究了一种税制优化中的政策强度与政策效果的均衡模型。首先对自由贸易区税制的模糊博弈要素进行了研究;其次,建立了赢得值为直觉模糊形式的双矩阵对策框架。     

Fuzzy item response model: a new approach to generate membership function to score psychological measurement

The aim of this study is to propose an new approach, fuzzy item response model (FIRM), which combines item response theory (IRT) and fuzzy set theory, in the educational or psychological measurement. Applying FIRM to improve the predictive validity of psychological measurement is verified. We set up a detailed procedure for the FIRM and apply it to a valuable empirical study with Beck Depression Inventory-II (Chinese version) administrated on outpatient diagnosed as depression was given. The results showed the correct classification of depression based on FIRM scoring was 80.3% while that of raw score was only 73.2%. That is, via FIRM scoring, 7.9% of the erroneous judgments of depression inferred from self-reported inventory were reduced. It is also suggested that considerable cost concerning prevention and cure of depression might be reduced via FIRM.     

Web服务QoS评价的模糊新算法

质量评价在Web服务生命周期的服务选择、实时监控、管理和计费等阶段占有越来越重要的地位,且模糊理论已应用于该领域。文章从区分冗余隶属度的角度对模糊综合评判算法进行改进,以消除指标隶属度中对目标分类不起作用的冗余数值,在没有冗余数据的条件下实现隶属度转换,并应用于Web服务QoS的评价。     

基于突变理论的高校稳定状况动态模糊评价研究

从稳定状态到不稳定的过程是一个复杂并且包含有着大量的突发性非连续性变化过程,为了研究和发现导致学校稳定状况产生突变的因素,科学地评判并预警,本文结合突变理论,运用模糊隶属函数和突变级数,将突变理论与模糊分析结合起来,对与学生有关的学校稳定系统进行多层目标分解,再根据归一公式进行量化递归运算,最后得到学校稳定总突变隶属函数值,进而通过分析不同时期学校稳定总突变隶属函数值及其变化趋势,动态地对学校稳定状况进行模糊综合评判并通过实例进行了检验。     

基于模糊事故树的深基坑防排水风险评估

降水是影响基坑工程施工安全的关键性因素之一,为了减少和预防基坑防、降水不当导致的基坑失稳事故,建立了基于模糊事故树法的基坑防排水工程风险评估体系。从止水、排水、降水三个方面,对基坑工程防排水措施中的危险源进行了分析和辨识,建立了基坑防排水事故树。用三角模糊数表述基本事件发生概率,计算得到系统模糊失效概率。通过中值法进行重要度分析,得到系统各基本事件的模糊重要度。工程实例应用表明,评估结果与实际情况较为符合,系统模糊失效概率能较好的反映基坑防排水系统的风险水平,模糊重要度的分析可为制定基坑施工安全措施和应急方案提供指导。     

Combining the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process and the fuzzy Delphi method for developing critical competences of electronic commerce professional managers

This study proposes a novel approach that integrates the qualitative approach, the quantitative approach, and fuzzy set theory for developing a framework of critical managerial competences of electronic commerce (EC) professional managers. The approach combines a focus group, a fuzzy Delphi method and the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy AHP) for identifying competences via experts’ opinions and questionnaires for developing the framework of managerial EC professional managers. Comparing the competences of traditional managers and EC managers reveals main differences in the emphasis on EC manager professional skills. Furthermore, competency weights for EC managers lie particularly in domain knowledge and information management skills. Research results reveal that our proposed EC competence framework not only help firms in selecting/hiring high quality EC professional managers more objectively, but also in evaluating the performance of EC managers.     

桩基础选型的模糊决策

基于模糊数学理论，运用模糊决策方法，对定性指标量化，建立模糊评价矩阵，利用专家评议法(Delphi)确定评价因素的权重值，对桩基础设计方案选型进行模糊综合评价，为决策者提供决策依据。