Does long-run real interest parity hold among EU countries? Some new panel data evidence

This paper tests for long-run ex post real interest parity (RIP) among the major European Union (EU) countries over the period 1979–1998 using a new test, due to Im, Pesaran, and Shin (1997), that allows one to confirm or reject RIP depending on whether a panel data set comprising real interest differentials is stationary or not. This methodology offers substantial advantages over the univariate Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) tests that might accept the null of non-stationarity on account of low test power. Strong evidence of onshore RIP occurs during 1986–1990 and 1993–1998 with the half life of a random shock to parity estimated at 2–3 months. There is no evidence of RIP during 1990–1993 despite the easing of remaining capital controls in 1990.     

Does financial development stimulate environmental sustainability? Evidence from a panel study of 115 countries

This paper investigates the moderation effect of financial development (FD) on the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). Using comprehensive panel data of 115 countries spanning the 1990–2016 period and dividing the countries into different income groups, the researcher found systematic differences in the relationship between significant indicators of environmental degradation and economic growth. More specifically, the interaction effect of FD on the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) growth and CO₂ emissions are positive; nevertheless, the interaction effect of FD on the relationship between GDP squared and CO₂ emissions become negative for all income groups and therefore supports the EKC. Moreover, the interaction effect of FD is negative on the relationship of GDP with both CH₄ and PM_2.5 emissions in the middle‐income groups, whereas the interaction effect of FD on the relationship between GDP squared and PM_2.5 emissions are negative for the high‐income group. Our results suggest that FD can reduce environmental degradation without adversely impacting on growth.     

Does institutional quality affect financial inclusion in Africa? A panel data analysis

In this article, we investigate the impact of institutional quality on financial inclusion with a sample of fifty-one African countries. We specify and estimate a dynamic panel data model with the system–generalized method of moments (sys-GMM) over the period 2004–2018, based on different approaches to financial inclusion. Our results show that institutional quality increases financial inclusion as well as the penetration, accessibility, and use of financial services in Africa. These results remain robust to the provision of financial education. Acceleration of income-generating activities in Africa will require improvement in financial institutions.     

Does education reduce homicide? A panel data analysis of Asian region

Quality & Quantity - Education may play an active role in enhancing the abilities of people. It does not only help in training for the professional field but is one of the most influential ways...     

Does inequality help in forecasting equity premium in a panel of G7 countries?

This paper investigates whether the post-tax and transfer growth rate in the Gini index can help in forecasting the equity premium in the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom (UK), and United States (US)). To this end, we use a panel data-based predictive framework, which controls for heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, persistence and endogeneity. When we analyze the annual out-of-sample period of 1990–2011, given an in-sample period of 1967–1989, our results show that: (a) Time series based predictive regression models fail to beat the benchmark of historical average, except for Italy; and, (b) the panel data models beat the benchmark in a statistically significant fashion for all the seven countries. Further, our results highlight the importance of pooling information when trying to forecast excess stock returns based on a measure of inequality.     

Does income inequality lead to banking crises in developing countries? Empirical evidence from cross-country panel data

This study empirically examines whether increasing income inequality results in banking crises using panel data for 68 countries covering the years 1973 to 2010. The results show that developing countries with high inequality tend to have higher levels of domestic credit and that domestic credit booms increase the probability of banking crises. We also find that developing economies display direct channels from inequality to banking crises without an association with credit booms. We find no consistent evidence that income inequality contributes to banking crises in advanced economies. In developing countries, the probability of banking crises increases dramatically as income inequality levels increase: The probability of a systemic banking crisis within three years is 9.5% when the Gini is as low as 0.2 in developing countries and increases to 57.4% when the Gini is 0.4. These results are robust to several specifications.     

Does measurement invariance hold for the official Mexican multidimensional poverty measure? A state-level analysis 2012

One of the main goals in poverty measurement is making comparisons of prevalence and severity across geographical units. This is attained by merely disaggregating the index in question. The underlying assumption is that comparisons across units are tenable, inasmuch as the same indicators are utilised for constructing the index. Nonetheless, in practice, this assumption is very rarely tested. From the statistical perspective, measurement invariance (MI) must hold for comparisons to be valid, and violations thereof indicate that a given poverty index measures different things across different countries, states, counties, etc. Consequently, differentials in severity and prevalence cannot be attributed exclusively to the underlying construct (i.e. poverty) but to factors not considered in the measure. This article tests whether MI holds for two indexes: the Mexican official multidimensional measure (MPM) and an adjusted multidimensional measure (MPM-A) that uses less severe thresholds. The analysis is conducted using a novel method called the ‘alignment method’. It uses these two measures and the method as an illustration of why it is vital to introduce MI tests into poverty measurement. The results suggest that partial strong MI holds for the official measure and MI is violated when the thresholds are adjusted. Partial strong MI guarantees making valid comparisons across the 32 states. Should the official measure requires to be updated with other thresholds, it would be necessary to adjust the threshold or drop the indicator for water deprivation.     

Does easy availability of cash affect corruption? Evidence from a panel of countries

Using annual panel data of 54 countries for the period 2005-14, we examine whether currency in circulation, both aggregate and in large denominations, affects the level of corruption in a country. Standard panel data models suggest that the ratios of (i) aggregate currency in circulation to M1 and, (ii) large denomination banknotes to M1 are both statistically significant determinants of corruption. Tests for reverse causality within a panel Granger framework reveal a uni-directional causality of corruption with the first variable, but a bi-directional one with the second. These findings suggest that a limitation in the supply of high-denomination banknotes, inter alia, could be a tool to fight corruption, and bring to the fore the important role of payment systems, extending an earlier study by Goel and Mehrotra (2012). The results also highlight that, along with the government, the central bank of an economy can also play an important role in the fight against corruption.     

Does global inflation help forecast inflation in industrialized countries?

Ciccarelli and Mojon (CM; Review of Economics and Statistics, 2010, 92(3), 524–535) propose an inflation forecasting model incorporating a global inflation factor and show that it consistently beats several standard forecasting benchmarks. We show that CM's global inflation model does not improve upon the Atkeson and Ohanian (AO; Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 2001, 25(1), 2–11) naive benchmark. However, we find that augmenting the AO model with a global inflation factor improves forecast accuracy at longer horizons, supporting CM's claim about the usefulness of global inflation.     

The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle in Latin American and Caribbean countries: a panel cointegration analysis

In this paper, the recently developed panel unit root and the Pedroni cointegration tests are applied to empirically examine the validity of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle (F–H puzzle) for a heterogeneous panel of 14 Latin American and five Caribbean countries over the period, 1960–2002. The findings indicate that in these countries, the long-run solvency condition is maintained. Finally, employing the Pedroni panel group FM-OLS estimator (2000, 2001), it is found that the statistically significant estimated savings-retention coefficient for the panel is relatively small indicating that the F–H Puzzle is not valid and thus implying the prevalence of a moderate degree of capital mobility.

Materiality in integrated and sustainability reporting: A paradigm shift?

This paper investigates the implementation of integrated reporting (IR) by Generali, one of the most important listed companies in Italy. The research questions we aim at answering are the following: Is the IR approach to materiality inherently different from the sustainability reporting (SR) approach? Does IR lead to the identification of different material topics than does SR? On the one hand, institutional theory suggests that IR and SR material topics are going to be significantly different because IR is mainly driven by a market logic, whereas SR is inspired by a stakeholder logic. On the other hand, organizational change theory predicts there will be some resistance to change by the organization, therefore leading to IR and SR topics being similar. In order to answer our research questions, we implement two empirical analyses. First, we propose and develop an innovative methodological approach on the basis of content analysis, which allows measuring the materiality of different issues under the IR approach. Second, we rely on evidence obtained through interviews, which suggests that IR and SR approaches to materiality are inherently different.     

Are unemployment rates in OECD countries stationary? Evidence from univariate and panel unit root tests

This paper revisits the dynamics of unemployment rate for 29 OECD countries over the period of 1980–2013. Numerous empirical studies of the dynamics of unemployment rate are carried out within a linear framework. However, unemployment rate can show nonlinear behaviour as a result of business cycles or some idiosyncratic factors specific to labour market (Cancelo, 2007). Thus, as a testing strategy, we first perform Harvey, Leybourne, and Xiao (2008) linearity unit root test and then apply the newly ESTAR nonlinear unit root test suggested by Kruse (2011). This test has higher power than conventional unit root tests when time series exhibits nonlinear behaviour. Our empirical findings provide significant evidence in favour of unemployment rate stationarity for 25 countries. For robustness purpose, we have also used panel unit root tests without and with structural breaks. The empirical results show that unemployment hysteresis hypothesis is strongly rejected, when taking into account the cross-sectional and structural break assumptions. Thus, unemployment rate is expected to return back to their natural levels without executing any costly macroeconomic labour market policies by the OECD’s governments.     

Financial statements in less developed countries： What do preparers demand？

This study reports on an empirical investigation of the characteristics, attitudes, and beliefs of preparers of external financial reports in a less developed country. The basic research instrument consisted of a questionnaire in two parts： the first addressing attitudes of professional accountants toward annual financial reports generally; the second, more specifically measuring the importance of the information items to preparers. Our results suggest that the independent auditor is the most influential group in decision-making processes. As in many developed countries, the auditor＇s report and the regulatory framework are considered to have a major influence on financial reporting practices. Preparers believe that a lack of knowledge of external users＇ needs and lack of reporting standards and accepted accounting principles are the main concerns with corporate financial reports in Iran. The results showed that the balance sheet, auditors＇ report, and income statement in that order are the three most important parts of the annual reports.     

Does the stock market really cause unemployment? A cross-country analysis

This study examines the relationship between the stock market and unemployment in 30 advanced and 11 developing and emerging countries. The results show that the unemployment rate and stock prices are cointegrated in all country groups; further, the causality between stock prices and unemployment appears in all country groups. Specifically, I found a particularly strong and one-way causal direction from stock prices to the unemployment rate in G7 countries. There is a strong bilateral causal relationship between stock prices and unemployment for other advanced countries. However, in the 11 developing and emerging countries, the causality test results indicate a strong Granger causality from unemployment to stock prices. The results for developing and emerging countries suggest that the unemployment rate can help forecast stock prices, but not vice versa. These findings complement existing studies and deliver useful implications for investors and policymakers, and suggest some new lines for future research.     

Corporate governance mechanisms and firm valuation in Malaysian listed firms： A panel data analysis

Corporate governance mechanisms emerge to tackle agency problems in ensuring that shareholders＇ funds are not expropriated or wasted on unprofitable activities. The issue arises as to whether these improvements have been effective in reducing agency costs, and therefore enhancing firm value. The objectives of this paper is to examine the effects of governance mechanisms of dividend, types of ownership structure, and board governance on firm value. This paper utilises a panel data analysis of 403 firms listed on the Bursa Malaysia over a four-year period from years 2002 to 2005. A hierarchical regression analysis is used to test the hypotheses and the data is analysed using the generalized least square （GLS） estimation technique. Overall, the results highlight the importance of moderating role played by board governance variables with types of ownership structure to influence firm value. However, the benefits of better corporate governance through enhanced board governance are not the same across all firms since their incentives vary with respect to dividend and different types of ownership structure mechanisms.     

Understanding wage restraint in the German public sector: does the pattern bargaining hypothesis really hold water?

German public sector wage restraint has been explained through the presence of a specific type of inter-sectoral wage coordination in the industrial relations system—that is, export sector-led pattern bargaining. First, as a literature-assessing exercise, this paper reviews the literature in industrial relations and comparative political economy (CPE) and finds that (i) the origins and mechanics of inter-sectoral wage coordination through pattern bargaining have never been laid out clearly; (ii) that the mechanisms of the pattern bargaining thesis have never been tested empirically; and (iii) that the CPE literature reveals an export-sector bias. Second, as a theory-testing exercise, hoop tests are performed to verify the pattern bargaining hypothesis. The key finding is that Germany cannot be considered a case of export sector-driven pattern bargaining, opening a new research agenda for the study of public sector wage setting centred on public sector employment relations, public finance, public administrations and the politics of fiscal policy.     

How long do housing cycles last? A duration analysis for 19 OECD countries

This paper analyzes the duration of house price upturns and downturns in the last 40 years for 19 OECD countries. Both upturns and downturns display duration dependence: they are more likely to end as their duration increases. Downturns display also lagged duration dependence: they are less likely to end if the previous upturn was particularly long. These patterns are consistent with a boom-bust view of housing price dynamics, where booms represent departures from fundamentals that are increasingly difficult to sustain and busts serve as readjustment periods. Findings are robust to the inclusion of macroeconomic variables, which allow for the estimation of additional determinants of house price expansions and contractions.     

Does aging influence structural change? Evidence from panel data

Our study represents a first attempt to single out the effects of aging on the entire structure of the economy that is approximated by employment shares in different sectors. We find that even after controlling for the effects of other relevant factors - e.g., income per capita, share of trade in GDP, government consumption share in GDP, population size - aging does have a statistically significant differentiated impact on the employment shares. In particular, we find that an increase in aging exerts a statistically significant adverse effect on the employment shares in agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and mining and quarrying industries. At the same time, an increasing share of the elderly (decreasing share of the youth) in society positively affects employment shares in community, social, and personal services as well as in the financial sector.