On the Internal Consistency of Stock Market Forecasts

Using the Livingston survey data, we test internal consistency restrictions on short-term, medium-term, and long-term stock market forecasts of the S&P 500®. We find that neither short-term forecasts are consistent with medium-term forecasts nor that medium-term forecasts are consistent with long-term forecasts. Using a forecast formation process featuring a distributed lag structure, however, we find some weak evidence of internal inconsistency of medium-term forecasts with long-term forecasts.     

On the accuracy of Blue Chip forecasts of interest rates and country risk premiums

We examine the accuracy of Blue Chip forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates and country risk premiums for the Eurozone and six other industrial countries for 1999–2008. In so doing, we utilize comparable random walk forecasts as benchmarks. Consistent with the efficient market hypothesis, the long-term interest rate forecasts fail to outperform the random walk. Our findings on the accuracy of short-term interest rate forecasts are, however, mixed. Further results reveal that Blue Chip is more (less) accurate in predicting country risk premiums associated with short-term (long-term) interest rates. Such evidence is reasonable since the short-term country risk premiums contain only the perceived default risk, while the long-term risk premiums, in addition, can contain the perceived inflation and exchange rate differentials.     

On the internal consistency of short-term,medium-term and long-term oil price forecasts

We derive internal consistency restrictions on short-, medium- and long-term oil price forecasts. We then analyse whether oil price forecasts extracted from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the European Central Bank (ECB) satisfy these internal consistency restrictions. We find that neither short-term forecasts are consistent with medium-term forecasts nor that medium-term forecasts are consistent with long-term forecasts. Using a more complex expectation formation structure featuring a distributed lag structure, however, we find stronger evidence of internal consistency of medium-term forecasts with long-term forecasts.     

Forecasting technology diffusion: a new generalisation of the logistic model

The present research proposes a new generalisation of the logistic model aiming at technology diffusion forecasting. Regarding criticisms and failures reported in the literature to apply logistic function for long-term forecasting, in our work we focused on short-term accuracy of forecast. To formulate the model, based on mathematical approximation, at first the differential equation governing the diffusion process is found and then by solving the derived differential equation, the forecast function is obtained. In all steps, mathematical tools from numerical analysis are used. We compared the New Generalized Logistic Model with eight of the most renowned models in the literature. The model led to more accurate fits and forecasts than those obtained from other models we applied for comparison.     

Comparative accuracy of forecasts of inflation: a Canadian study

An inaccurate forecast of inflation is costlier to economic agents when the inflation rate is high and volatile. In this situation, the use of more sophisticated and information-oriented forecasting models become economically efficient. We test this hypothesis by analysing the forecasting accuracy of vector auto-regressive (VAR), auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and static expectation models. We use Canadian data and divide the post-sample forecasting period into four sub-periods, based on high/low and volatile/stable inflation. Prediction errors are compared for both short-term and long-term forecasts. Finally, the paper proposes a portfolio approach for obtaining a more accurate forecast of inflation.     

The expectations theory of the term structure: Evidence from inflation forecasts

This paper tests the joint hypothesis of rational expectations and the expectations theory of the term structure using the Livingston survey data on price inflation forecasts. For a variety of sample periods, the paper presents evidence that the data are consistent with the theory. Since inflation forecasts, unlike interest rates, are not linked to specific underlying financial assets, the relationship between longterm and short-term inflation forecasts should not embody risk premia. This paper's findings therefore lend support to the view that a time-varying risk premium is needed to explain the observed term structure of interest rates.     

基于ARIMA与GARCH模型的国际油价预测比较分析

在分析影响油价波动因素的基础上,利用1986年1月至2010年12月的WTI国际原油价格月度数据,分别建立ARIMA和GARCH模型对油价进行预测。并通过对2011年1月至2012年4月WTI原油价格进行外推预测,检验模型的预测效果。比较分析发现,在短期预测中,ARIMA和GARCH模型对油价的预测均比较准确,但当油价由于受到重大事件的影响而有较大波动时,模型的预测精度下降;在长期预测中,GARCH模型的预测效果优于ARIMA模型;整体来看,GARCH模型预测的精度高于ARIMA模型。因此,在国际油价预测中,用GARCH模型是比较合适的。     

Long-term macroeconometric models: The case of Poland

Long-term forecasts and scenario analysis should be based on macroeconometric models. The core of long-term models is extended by introducing production functions generating potential output. Their specification includes total factor productivity (TFP) being representative of technological progress. It depends on knowledge capital, i.e. human capital, domestic and foreign R&D. Several channels of transfer of foreign R&D can be distinguished.The potential output differs from the effective output, representing final demand, underlying business cycle fluctuations. To study potential disequilibria a system of equations explaining final demand must be established.Thus the long-term macroeconometric model must be a complete model. Its use may cover long-term forecasts and scenario analysis based on model simulations.The paper outlines the above specifications of the long-term model using as example a new model of the Polish economy. The model is medium-sized. It covers demand and supply side, including prices and financial flows. The results of multiplier analysis are shown revealing model feedbacks, including generation of business cycles. The results of its application are shown: long-term forecasts up to the year 2030 as well as scenarios of development of the Polish economy, including recession scenario.     

Macroeconomic and credit forecasts during the Greek crisis using Bayesian VARs

We investigate the ability of small- and medium-scale Bayesian VARs (BVARs) to produce accurate macroeconomic (output and inflation) and credit (loans and lending rate) out-of-sample forecasts during the latest Greek crisis. We implement recently proposed Bayesian shrinkage techniques based on Bayesian hierarchical modeling, and we evaluate the information content of forty-two (42) monthly macroeconomic and financial variables in terms of point and density forecasting. Alternative competing models employed in the study include Bayesian autoregressions (BARs) and time-varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility, among others. The empirical results reveal that, overall, medium-scale BVARs enriched with economy-wide variables can considerably and consistently improve short-term inflation forecasts. The information content of financial variables, on the other hand, proves to be beneficial for the lending rate density forecasts across forecasting horizons. Both of the above-mentioned results are robust to alternative specification choices, while for the rest of the variables smaller-scale BVARs, or even univariate BARs, produce superior forecasts. Finally, we find that the popular, data-driven, shrinkage methods produce, on average, inferior forecasts compared to the theoretically grounded method considered here.     

Forecasting with limited data: Combining ARIMA and diffusion models

Forecasting diffusion of new technologies is usually performed by the means of aggregate diffusion models, which tend to monopolize this area of research and practice, making the alternative approaches, like the Box-Jenkins, less favourable choices due to their lack of providing accurate long-term predictions. This paper presents a new methodology focusing on the improvement of the short-term prediction that combines the advantages of both approaches and that can be applied in the early stages of a diffusion process. An application of the methodology is also illustrated, providing short-term forecasts for the world broadband and mobile telecommunications' penetration. The results reveal that the methodology is capable of producing improved one-year-ahead predictions, after a certain level of penetration, as compared to the results of both methods individually. This methodology can find applications to all cases of the high-technology market, where a diffusion model is usually used for obtaining future forecasts. The paper concludes with the limitations of the methodology, the discussion on the application's results and the proposals for further research.     

The provision of long-term credit and firm growth in developing countries

Do small and young firms benefit from an increase in the provision of long-term loans? By combining firm-level data from 62 countries (over the period 2006–2016) with a new database on short-term and long-term credit provided to the private sector, this article shows a higher provision of long-term credit does not stimulate growth of small and young firms. On the contrary, an increase in the availability of short-term credit spurs firm growth. The main explanation of this (counter-intuitive) result is the differential impact of short-term and long-term credit provision on small and young firms’ access to credit. Young and small firms are able to take advantage of an increase of short-term loans, which allow them to switch from informal finance to bank loans. However, a higher level of long-term credit does not alleviate credit constraints faced by opaque firms because these funds are allocated towards transparent borrowers.     

Should systems like LINK be used for long-range forecasts and simulations?

Systems like LINK should not generally be used for long-range forecasts and simulations because they eschew many significant long-term issues. World-wide fluctuations in the division of labour should be endogenous, and similarly the various momentous, but partly induced, international ‘shocks’ like the energy crisis and the breakdown of world monetary order. The same applies for several aspects of the national macroeconometric models making up systems like LINK. Consequently, if such systems are used mechanically to churn out long-range forecasts and simulations, the results will generally be misleading and the inflationary impact of the policy simulations is likely to be underestimated.     

A model of multiple-unit ownership as a diffusion process

This paper develops and tests a new model for multiple-unit adoptions of durable goods based on the diffusion modeling tradition. Multiple-unit adoptions are a major component of sales for many consumer durable product categories. For instance, sales of multiple-unit adoptions for televisions have been higher than both first adoptions and replacement purchases since 1977, while for automobiles, they have represented more than 20% of sales since 1966 in Australia. The structural drivers of multiple-unit adoptions are quite different from either first purchase or replacement purchase. Hence, identifying and modeling the multiple-unit component of sales is important for aggregate sales forecasts. Moreover, consumer requirements for additional units of a product are likely to be considerably different than for the other components of sales (first purchases and replacement purchases). As such, the ratio of the first, multiple, and replacement sales components will strongly influence the product mix requirements of the market.

While forecasting and influencing multiple-unit sales are an important managerial issue, very little attention has been given to multiple-unit ownership in the diffusion modeling literature. The only model available was developed for the purpose of modeling relatively short-term behavior of multiple-unit adoptions, rather than the longer-term pattern of sales. We propose a model of multiple-unit adoptions as a diffusion process.

We apply the model to both color television and automobiles. Analysis of the model's long-term fit and forecasts in these applications provide support for the structure of the new model.     

German Exports to the Euro Area

This paper analyzes the determinants of German exports to the euro area, which is the biggest market for German products. Three conditional error-correction models based on regionally disaggregated data are developed. One specification includes EMU industrial production and a real external value based on consumer prices, the other two use different EMU investment aggregates, the orresponding real external values and a proxy for European market integration to explain exports. The models perform equally well in a number of diagnostic tests. For short-term forecasts, however, the model using industrial production seems to be the best, since it outperforms the other models in terms of one-step ahead out-of-sample forecasts.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual 2002 congress of the Verein für Socialpolitik.     

Economic policy uncertainty and firm investment: evidence from the U.S. market

This paper examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on firm-level capital investment, by not only delving into the long-term investment-uncertainty relation like previous studies, but also analyzing the short-term investment-uncertainty relation for the U.S. market. The empirical investigations show that firms decrease short-term, long-term, and total firm investments when encountering higher economic policy uncertainties. The research also explores the non-linear investment-uncertainty relation based on various theories. Our findings present a U-shaped relationship between short-term, long-term, and total investments and uncertainties. Policy implications are provided from our empirical results.     

A comparison of different contract forms for consumers with switching costs and changed preferences

This paper compares three contract forms, including short-term contract with price discrimination, short-term contract without price discrimination, and long-term contract with price commitment for consumers with switching costs and changed preferences. We find that long-term contract generates the largest profit for firms. Moreover, we find that switching costs make the market more competitive when consumers have changed preferences, and the higher the switching costs, the more competitive. Our theory combines linear-city duopoly and switching-cost model and the results are consistent with literature, for example price commitment is valuable. Our findings shed light on the practice of different forms of dynamic pricing in various industries including telecommunication industry and airline industry.     

Do corporate executives have accurate predictions for the economy? A directional analysis

Although many studies on the directional accuracy of forecasts by international organizations and professional forecasters have been scrutinized, little attention has been paid to forecasts by business leaders. In order to address this gap, we use directional tests to investigate whether forecasts of Gross Domestic Product by corporate executives are valuable to their users. Our findings indicate that all the forecasts with forecast horizons from 1 to 14 months are valuable, whereas established literature indicates that longer-term forecasts tend not to be valuable. This suggests that corporate executives are concerned with and focus on longer-term economic environments and can therefore serve as an important resource for policymakers. However, some of the useful forecasts with real-time data, in particular those in the Tankan survey, are not useful with historical data.     

Corporate debt and output pricing in developing countries: Industry-level evidence from Turkey

The present study is an application of capital structure theory to developing economies where markets are commonly imperfect. The industry-level data of Turkey is used as a benchmark case to investigate the effects of corporate debt on output pricing, which in return, might have critical implications for stabilization theory. The panel estimations on the major two-digit industries reveal two basic findings. First, short-term debt leads to an increase in output prices while long-term debt has the opposite effect, and short-term but not long-term debt has a cyclical influence on prices. Second, the inflationary effect short-term debt implies a lower capital gain and induces higher prices, while the effect long-term debt implies a higher capital gain and induces lower prices. Given the predominant share of short-term debt in most developing countries, these findings suggest an explanation for inflation inertia on the side of corporate sector.     

Forecasts of the managed futures market – an empirical analysis

Alternative investments, including managed futures, are primarily intended for institutional investors and for very wealthy individual investors. It therefore seems logical to assume, that the increase of wealth on a global scale can be a factor impacting the value of transactions in individual segments of the alternative-investment market. The purpose of this article is to indicate the factors affecting growth of managed futures transactions. Another research goal is to answer the question: Does the increase of wealth on a global scale affect the value of the managed futures transactions? The article will also present short-term forecasts of the transactions on the managed futures market for the years 2015–2017. The forecasts which will be constructed are meant to present possible scenarios of the market’s further development. Evolution of the alternative investment segment leads to development of those categories, which fulfil the expectations of market participants and meet the requirement and expiration of the remaining investments which do not attract investors and are no longer accepted by them.     

Monetary Policy and Forecasts for Real GDP Growth: An Empirical Investigation for the Federal Republic of Germany

Using quarterly data for the Federal Republic of Germany, we generate four-quarter-ahead forecasts for real GDP growth. Throughout the 1970s and 1980s, other monetary indicators like real M1 or short-run interest rates clearly outperform forecasts which are based on interest rate spreads. This holds for within as well as for ex-post predictions. The same holds for the development after 1992. Moreover, it is shown that simple forecasts based on M1 or on short-run interest rates outperform the common biannual GNP forecasts of the group of German economic research institutes.