基于自由现金流量的企业价值评估:以索芙特公司为例

本文在介绍自由现金流量折现法相关原理的基础上,选取一家名为索芙特的化妆品上市公司,通过分析该上市公司过去五年的相关财务数据,并结合整个化妆品的行业环境以及该企业的发展现状,分析影响企业价值评估的宏观环境和微观环境,进而探究该公司未来五年的自由现金流量。依据两阶段自由现金流量模型估算出索芙特公司的价值。基于此,本文从调整资本结构,提高公司自由现金流量的增长率两方面对索芙特公司的价值管理提出建议。     

自由现金流量折现法在企业价值评估中的问题和对策分析

<正>自由现金流量折现法是西方使用最广泛、理论上最完善的一种企业价值评估方法,而在我国目前低效率的资本市场与不发达的市场经济条件下,这种方法的应用还存在一些问题。一、自由现金流量折现法在企业价值评估中的问题分析1.假设前提繁复自由现金流量贴现法只适用于处于成长期和成熟期的企业价值估价,因为只有这两个阶段的未来自由现金流量能可靠预测得到。该模型以可持续经营为基础,不能衡量企业短期内价值的增加。对于陷入财务困难的公司,其当期的收益     

基于自由现金流量的企业价值评估分析

目前企业价值评估方法主要包括成本法、收益法和市场法。本文比较这上述方法局限性基础上,提出了采用自由现金流量折现法进行企业价值评估的方法。基于自由现金流量的企业价值评估模型,有效克服了传统的会计利润指标的缺陷,能够更为准确的评价出企业的价值。     

电商企业价值评估方法实证研究

通过对电子商务企业价值评估方法(市盈率估值法、折现现金流量法和剩余收益估值法)进行比较分析,采用70家上市电子商务企业的数据进行实证研究,将样本电子商务企业的市价与模型和通过模型计算的结果两方面进行回归分析,比较三种方法对电商企业的市值的解释力,得出剩余收益估计模型较其他估值模型的优越性,证明了剩余收益估价模型能够有效评估电商企业的市值。     

自由现金流量法下的企业价值评估研究

随着资本市场的不断成熟,人们的投资理念也越来越强,并且随着国内外市场的开放性,国内外的公司并购,重组,股权交易等活动也越来越多,对企业价值评估的需求也在不断增加．本文主要通过对企业价值的方法进行比较分析,得出自由现金流量折现法在市场还并未完全透明,成熟条件下,是比较合理、比较科学的方法,并且会对其不足,给出相关建议。     

基于现金流量表的企业价值评估——以宁波富邦为例

本文综合运用经济学、财务管理学等学科的理论知识,对自由现金流量在企业的价值评估中的应用开展相应的研究。通过运用自由现金流量折现模型对宁波富邦精业集团股份有限公司的价值进行评估。本文最后也提出了自由现金流量折现模型的不足之处,并提出研究展望。     

自由现金流量在企业价值评估中的应用

本文采用自由现金流量折现法评估企业价值。     

市销率法和现金流量折现法应用分析

目前,在企业价值评估方法的选择中,国外大多以市场法、现金流量折现法为主。但由于受资本市场以及传统企业价值评估思路的影响,我国在评估企业价值时通常采用成本法。通过对市销率法和现金流量折现法的比较,相对较合理且有效地评估出东软集团股份有限公司的价值。     

剩余收益模型与传统DCF模型的比较研究

依据自由现金流折现模型和剩余收益模型的基本原理,对两个模型的应用范围和解释能力进行了比较。阐述了剩余收益模型可以较好的解释和预测没有建成、存在许多增长机会、正在战略重组、兼并收购的企业价值的内在机理。以企业价值评估和绩效评价为例,分析了剩余收益法在解释现实经济现象的能力方面与自由现金流折现法相比所具有的比较优势。     

DCF法与DDM法对上市公司估值的对比分析

股利折现模型、自由现金流量折现模型在证券市场上市公司估值时在估值结果上存在一定的差异。本文在分析比较两种模型的原理的基础上对其差异性进行分析,并且通过案例对此进行比较说明,分析了两种模型各自的适用性,得出了DDM模型与DCF模型是非常有效的上市公司估值方法,两者结合可以确定公司价值的上限和下限的结论。     

Estimates of the cost of equity for public utilities, 1961–1976

Using a simple version of the dividend cash flow (DCF) model of stock valuation, the cost of equity for public utilities is often inferred to be equal to the sum of the dividend yield and the expected rate of growth in dividends. Witnesses who employ this approach generally extrapolate past growth patterns into the future and then assume that investors expect these trends to continue; no effort is made to actually assess the expectations of investors. This approach to estimating the cost of equity for public utilities is criticized for the failure to develop testable hypotheses as an inferential basis for testing the statistical reliability of estimates of the cost of equity. This article demonstrates an alternative to the traditional approach, based on the premise that reliable estimates of the cost of equity are derived only within a methodological framework that produces testable hypotheses. The Gordon model of share valuation is formulated in such a way as to show that there is a systematic and predictable relationship between the ratio of market price to book value of common stock and a firm's normal or expected return on equity. This relationship suggests an econometric model that not only tests the Gordon model of share valuation but produces at the same time, inferences concerning the cost of equity. Using this approach, year-end estimates of the cost of equity for electric utilities are determined for the 16-yr period from 1961 to 1976.     

Certainty equivalent,risk premium and asset pricing

This paper attempts to determine the certainty equivalent of an uncertain future cash flow or value through the option pricing method, and builds models of certainty equivalent and certainty equivalent coefficient. Based on the model of certainty equivalent coefficient, this paper further derives models of risk premium and risk-adjusted discount rate. The latter is a new capital asset pricing model (CAPM) accounting for total risk rather than with only the systematic risk accounted for as in the current CAPM. The reliability in relevant financial analysis, valuation, decision making and risk management may be enhanced with these new models.     

企业并购估值中的威斯通模型扩展研究

威斯通模型是企业并购估值贴现现金流模型中具有代表性的研究。在威斯通固定增长模型的基础上,建立了考虑未来经营失败概率的估值模型;对威斯通超常增长而后无增长模型进行了修正,探讨了企业在超常增长期采取不同投资策略对其价值的影响,建立了一个更为简明的估值模型,并给出隐含超常增长期限的一种计算方法。     

Firm Growth and Liquidity Constraints: A Dynamic Analysis

Using a large unbalanced panel data set of Portuguese manufacturing firms surviving over the period from 1990 to 2001, the purpose of this paper is to examine whether liquidity constraints faced by business firms affect firm growth. We use a GMM-system to estimate a dynamic panel data model of firm growth that incorporates cash flow as a measure of liquidity constraints and persistence of growth. The model is estimated for all size classes, including micro firms. Our findings reveal that smaller and younger firms have higher growth-cash flow sensitivities than larger and more mature firms. This is consistent with the suggestion that financial constraints on firm growth may be relatively more severe for small and young firms. Nevertheless, the same finding can be interpreted in a different way if we consider the more recent literature which interpret the higher investment/cash flow sensitivity of younger and smaller firm in absence of financial market imperfection as the outcome of these firms reaction to the fact that realisation of their cash flows reveals them the direction to go in presence of uncertainty of their growth prospect. Besides, firms that were small and young at the beginning of the sample period exhibited more persistent growth than those that were large and old. Finally, these results have significant policy implications.      

人民币汇率波动、成本粘性与企业自由现金流--来自A股上市公司2003－2011年经验证据

人民币汇率波动对进出口商品价格具有显著传导效应，研究发现，当企业销售量下降、营业收入减少时，企业成本粘性增强，企业自由现金流下降明显，这表明我国上市公司确实存在成本粘性行为，宏观经济政策调控是导致企业成本粘性行为之一。当企业存在成本粘性特质时，研究发现，企业收入呈负增长，人民币升值幅度较快，成本粘性加剧，企业自由现金流下降趋势更加显著，人民币汇率波动作用于微观企业现金流或通过成本粘性机制来实现。     

The replacement decision: Getting it right

Replacing assets is one of the most important and frequently made decisions in business. A review of the finance literature shows that treatment of this subject diverges widely. More importantly, the net present value decision model most often described discounts only the differences between cash flows and terminal (salvage) values of the replace and do-not-replace alternatives. It tacitly assumes that the risk and inflation factors associated with these values are the same. As a result, for reasons that are counterintuitive in part, it may select the wrong alternative. Through use of a case example, this article demonstrates why the currently popular approach presents difficulties. Further, it provides a model designed to overcome the problems by making each alternative's cash flow and terminal value visible, and assigning appropriate risk and inflation discount factors to each.     

股权投资基金与企业实际投资的实证研究

股权投资基金与其他的融资方式相比有其独有的优势和特点,这种融资方式对于企业的投资决策和投资行为会产生其特有的影响。文章在综述国内外相关研究的基础上,以我国中小企业板上市公司为研究样本,构建实证模型,通过实证方法研究股权投资基金对企业实际投资的影响和作用。研究得出以下结论,中小企业板上市公司实际投资与股权投资基金的参与显著正相关,与公司成长性指标营业总收入增长率显著正相关,而实际投资与现金流指标和公司总资产负债率并不存在显著的相关性。     

Valuation of Discount Options in Software License Agreements

Many companies increasingly rely on licensed standard software for system software and applications. In addition to the regulation of usage conditions, software licensing agreements increasingly include services, such as software upgrades and user training, as a part of the contract or these are optional for a fee, which can be made use of by the licensee during the term of the contract at a reduced price or as a free service. This benefit entitlement is called a discount option and must be valued during the selection and designing of a contract. This paper describes the basic valuation issues as well as some weaknesses of previous approaches, and subsequently presents a model which, on the basis of the real option theory, enables an assessment of the discount options using mathematical methods. As the value of discount options can in many cases only be estimated by using analytical methods under certain conditions, a practical solution method is explained on the basis of numeric backwards induction. The procedure for applying the model and the achieved advances in knowledge are illustrated with an example.     

捐赠行为、政府干预与代理效率

本文分析了公司捐赠行为对代理效率的作用机理,发现捐赠支出越多越能缓解现金流用于管理者利己效用支出,代理效率越高、政府干预越少则市场化进程更高、代理效率越高;比较而言,政府干预少的地区企业捐赠支出更能提高代理效率,衰退期行业中同样的捐赠支出提升代理效率的功效有限;规模较小组中捐赠行为更容易被市场识别,规模较大组中捐赠行为更多地被视为一种社会责任。因此,捐赠支出有助于缓解自由现金流代理成本,有助于公司代理效率的改善;现实中捐赠减少现金流的同时提高了公司的代理效率和声誉,利于当前或未来公司价值的提升。