Trade liberalization,intra-industry trade and the environment: competition mode and the order of firms’ moves

This paper explores the implications of trade liberalization by extending the intra-industry trade framework à la Fung and Maechler (J Int Trade Econ Dev 16(1):53–69, 2007) to the case of sequential move and taking the mode of firms’ competition into consideration as well. It is shown that the existing results obtained for the case of simultaneous price competition are robust in quantity competition and sequential move cases. Moreover, it studies the likelihood that the environmental effects of trade liberalization occur.

Institutional change from an evolutionary perspective: the Mexican experience

The fall of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) in July 2000 marked a milestone in Mexico’s political history. Throughout its 71 years of incumbency, the PRI had incarnated the set of social, political and economic institutions of the country to the extent of becoming synonymous with governance and stability. Using a simple model in which institutional change is the result of the strategic interaction between citizens, an incumbent ruler and a potential new ruler or entrant, we provide a systematic interpretation of this experience emphasizing the role of evolutionary factors such as history, uncertainty, learning and experimentation.

Does a non-linear mean reverting process characterize real GDP movements?

This paper uses non-linear models to investigate non-stationarity of real GDP per capita for seven OECD countries over the period 1900–2000. Unit root tests based on non-linear models are more powerful than traditional ADF statistics in rejecting the null unit root hypothesis. Empirical results show that, contrary to what the linear ADF statistics suggest, stationarity characterizes five out of the seven countries. This finding stands at variance with other recent studies which conclude that movements in real GDP per capita can be characterized as a non-stationary process.

Deterministic seasonality in Dickey–Fuller tests: should we care?

This paper investigates the properties of Dickey–Fuller tests for seasonally unadjusted quarterly data when deterministic seasonality is present but it is neglected in the test regression. While for the random walk case the answer is straightforward, an extensive Monte Carlo study has to be performed for more realistic processes and testing strategies. The most important conclusion is that the common perception that deterministic seasonality has nothing to do with testing for the long-run properties of the data is incorrect. Further numerical evidence on the shortcomings of the general-to-specific t-sig lag selection method is also presented.

Are voters rationally ignorant? An empirical study of Portuguese local elections

The application of the rational choice postulate to a political context invariably leads to the conclusion that most voters are ill informed when making the decision on whom to vote for. In this paper, the authors conduct an empirical evaluation of the rational ignorance theory, based on the model developed by (Rogoff and Sibert Rev Econ Stud LV:1–16, (1988) and by considering that better informed voters reward political candidates who show better performances. The levels of performance are established through the construction of an empirical frontier using the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) methodology. According to our results, based on the 1997 Portuguese local elections, even though swing voters do not necessarily behave as rationally ignorant voters, a large majority of voters are rationally ignorant.

Distribution-free estimation with interval-censored contingent valuation data: troubles with Turnbull?

Contingent valuation (CV) surveys frequently employ elicitation procedures that return interval-censored data on respondents’ willingness to pay (WTP). Almost without exception, CV practitioners have applied Turnbull’s self-consistent algorithm to such data in order to obtain nonparametric maximum likelihood (NPML) estimates of the WTP distribution. This paper documents two failings of Turnbull’s algorithm; (1) that it may not converge to NPML estimates and (2) that it may be very slow to converge. With regards to (1) we propose starting and stopping criteria for the algorithm that guarantee convergence to the NPML estimates. With regards to (2) we present a variety of alternative estimators and demonstrate, through Monte Carlo simulations, their performance advantages over Turnbull’s algorithm.

A reassessment of the Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis of perfect capital mobility: evidence from historical data

This short paper explores the relationship between investment and saving rates in a sample of 13 OECD countries over the period 1885–1992. To this end, I employ panel cointegration tests based on the maximum likelihood approach developed by Johansen (J Economic Dynamics Control 12:231–254, 1988) instead of conventional panel cointegration residual based tests, in order to draw sharper conclusions. Using estimation techniques appropriate for heterogeneous panels I find a low degree of capital mobility for the sub-periods 1921–1992 and 1950–1992. The findings overwhelmingly support the hypothesis of perfect capital mobility in the short run.

On the evolutionary edge of migration as an assortative mating device

In a haystack-type representation of a heterogeneous population that is evolving according to a payoff structure of a prisoner’s dilemma game, migration is modeled as a process of ‘swapping’ individuals between heterogeneous groups of constant size after a random allocation fills the haystacks, but prior to mating. Migration is characterized by two parameters: an exogenous participation-in-migration cost (of search, coordination, movement, and arrangement-making) which measures the migration effort, and an exogenous technology—of coordinating and facilitating movement between populated haystacks and the colonization of currently unpopulated haystacks—which measures the migration intensity. Starting from an initially heterogeneous population that consists of both cooperators and defectors, a scenario is postulated under which ‘programmed’ migration can act as a mechanism that brings about a long-run survival of cooperation.

Aging: Some Pleasant Fiscal Arithmetic

Projections of age-related public expenditure growth have raised widespread concerns about fiscal sustainability. This paper examines how total expenditure would develop under four policy rules on public expenditure growth. Some simple arithmetic of expenditure, GDP, and population is reviewed and applied in simulations for 19 OECD countries over 2000–50. A general and a specific conclusion arise from the results. Generally, long-term expenditure projections could benefit from revisiting common assumptions on non-age-related expenditure growth. Specifically, realistic gradual adjustment in non-age-related expenditures could go a long way towards maintaining fiscal sustainability under age-related spending pressures.

Transaction tax and stock market behavior: evidence from an emerging market

This study examines the impact of a stamp tax rate increase on market behavior, using data from two stock exchanges in China. We find that when the tax rate increases from 0.3 to 0.5% (which implies that the transaction cost increases by about 1/3) trading volume decreases by 1/3. This implies an elasticity of turnover with respect to a stamp tax of −50% and an elasticity of turnover with respect to transaction cost of −100%. The markets’ volatility significantly increases after the increase in the tax rate. Furthermore, the change in the volatility structure indicates that the markets become less efficient in the sense that shocks are less quickly assimilated in the markets.

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Comparing Interpersonal Comparisons in Utility Theory and Happiness Research

Social scientists are reluctant to make explicit interpersonal comparisons of well-being. However, implicit comparisons are made on a surprisingly regular basis. These comparisons are based on the wealth and the Kaldor–Hicks concept in utility theory and on self-reported well-being in happiness research. Taking a utilitarian stance, this paper tests the ethical foundations of both principles. While self-reported well-being serves as an acceptable proxy for utilitarian decision-making, the Kaldor–Hicks concept does not appear so. Implications for evaluating policies are outlined.

Complexity of economic structures and emergent properties

This concept revolves around differences of embeddedness of organizations in the macro patterns of routines (economic policy regimes), which in turn may differentially provide them–and the system as a whole–with ‘procedural rationality’ in dealing with identified problems in their relevant complex environment. Regularities of interdependence are specified between different regime patterns and the variety of coordination routines between and inside micro organizations. Corresponding regularities are also observed for internal governance routines of organizations, which in turn determine the behavioral adaptation by self-organization that may be rationally in a local perspective, but–contingent on the organization’s embeddedness in the coordination structure–not necessarily so in a comprehensive one.

Optimal simple rules and the lower bound on the nominal interest rate in the Christiano–Eichenbaum–Evans model of the US business cycle

Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (NBER wp 10724, 2004b) analyzes the optimal, simple and implementable monetary policy rules in a medium-scale macromodel, as the one proposed by Christiano et al. (J Polit Econ 113:1–45, 2005). In doing so, they use a sensible, but somewhat arbitrary constraint to account for the lower bound condition on the nominal interest rate. In this work, we check the robustness of their main results to such a criteria. We find that the optimal policies are actually absolutely robust to the easing of this criterion for all the different cases considered.

Openness and the Efficiency of FDI: A Panel Stochastic Production Frontier Study

This paper uses a stochastic translog production frontier to estimate technical inefficiency indices whose conditional mean is specified as a function of FDI and its interaction with openness of the economy. The model is estimated using an annual panel of 46 countries for the years, 1981–2001. The results suggest that increased FDI increases potential output in both developed and developing countries with the effect being more profound in the former. It is also found that increased FDI reduces technical inefficiencies the more open is the economy but that this effect holds only for developed economies. Thus qualified support is found for the “Bhagwati hypothesis” as the results reveal that the efficiency–enhancing effect of FDI depends not only on openness but also on the degree of development of the host country.

Quantifying corruption by a human capital earnings equation

This paper uses a human capital earnings equation to quantify administrative corruption in the public sector. Regression analyses are conducted based on information from surveys administered to public officials in Albania. After accounting for officials’ characteristics, e.g., schooling, experience, gender, type of agency, and public and private sectors’ features, we deduce that the administrative corruption was on average 2.6× the officials’ current salary in Albania, which is equivalent to 16.7% of the country’s GDP.

Financial intermediation and growth: causality and causes without outliers

In a seminal paper, Levine et al. (J Monet Econ 46:31–77, 2000) provide cross-sectional evidence showing that financial development has positive average impact on long-run growth, using a sample of 71 countries. We argue that the evidence is sensitive to the presence of outliers.

Testing for unit and fractional orders of integration in the trend and seasonal components of US monetary aggregates

Monthly seasonally unadjusted data can exhibit roots with possibly fractional orders of integration, corresponding to the monthly but also to the quarterly and to the long-run or trending components of the series. In this paper we use a procedure which is suitable to test simultaneously for the order of integration of each of these components and apply it to several US monetary aggregates.

Jensen’s Inequality in Finance

The purpose of this paper is to measure the size and the statistical significance of three inequalities in the field of financial economics. The three are variants of Jensen’s inequality. The first inequality is a comparison of the expected value of a ratio to the ratio of the expected value, a problem that arises in pricing foreign exchange rates. The second is a comparison of the log of the expected value to the expected value of the log, a problem that arises in testing forward market efficiency, money demand, production functions, and trade gravity models. The third is a comparison of the expected utility to the utility of the expected value, and helps in determining the importance of the expected utility paradigm, and the magnitude of the equity risk premium. The methodology used is by simulation of random normal variables, thereby introducing sampling error. Despite this sampling error the conclusion is general: all three inequalities are economically material, and stand statistically as inequalities. The major conclusion is that Jensen’s inequality is not a theoretical and superfluous exercise in finance as some have advocated.

Testing for the principal’s monopsony power in agency contracts

We develop a test for the presence of the monopsony power of the livestock integrator (principal) on the market for contract growers (agents) and estimate the model with the data on swine industry contract settlements. A natural test for the monopsony power of the principal would compare the estimated values of the marginal revenue products with the actual payments that agents receive for their services. The problem with implementing this approach comes from the fact that agents’ abilities and actions are unobservable. Our approach is based on estimating the slope of the inverse supply function for grower input using generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators. The model specifies the relationships between the observable consequences and unobservable grower characteristics imposing the first order conditions for principal’s profit maximization. The results show that the null hypothesis of no market power cannot be rejected.

Exploring the relationship between technical and service characteristics

The paper explores the complex relationship between technical and service characteristics discussed by the Saviotti–Metcalfe model of innovation. It is proposed that principal components analysis (PCA) is a more appropriate method of analysing this relationship than approaches previously used. A PCA is performed on a dataset of mobile phone handsets for the period 2003 to 2008. In addition to the relationship between technical and service characteristics, the analysis explores the existence of clusters of ergonomic characteristics within mobile phone handsets. The findings indicate that a limited set of core technology components underpin the large set of service characteristics offered by mobile phone handsets, and that the mapping between technical and service characteristics can be highly complex.