Population growth and food supply policy in Nigeria

The strategies of food production and supply in Nigeria are examined in the context of rapid population growth. The author first summarizes recent demographic trends and their relationship to problems in the supply of food. Current and projected measures to resolve food supply problems are then reviewed, and some alternative measures are suggested.     

中国水产品市场供求平衡分析

论文运用结构分析法和供求平衡表分析了我国水产品市场的总供给、总需求,并对我国水产品市场的供求平衡做出判断;其次运用Census X12和滤波分析法分析水产品市场价格的基本走势以期对市场供求平衡状况做出进一步的总结。研究表明:我国水产品市场供求早已告别了"吃鱼难"的时代,水产品市场基本上处于供求平衡的状态。在此基础上提出了对渔业生产方式调整和创新的基本诉求、多元化我国水产品的出口结构与品种、加强水产品流通渠道和业态的研究、进一步了解水产品消费结构和品种的相关建议,来适应水产品市场均衡关系的变化。     

The case for property investment and the implications of a unitized property market

Abstract

It is well known that direct property investment has often provided a more attractive risk/return profile than gilts and yet it enjoys a comparatively small role in institutional portfolios. This paper begins by updating and confirming that position. It then considers why this should be the case and poses the question of whether the development of a unitized property market might alter institutions’ perceptions of property as an investment in such a way as to increase its portfolio importance.

Section 2 discusses the weighting attached to property in recent years and section 3 discusses the conventional methods of risk/return analysis which present property in a favourable light. The paper then asks why the weighting should be so low and begins (section 4) by looking at arguments that conventional methods of risk/return analysis are misleading when applied to property, leading to an overstatement of return and an underestimate of risk. If institutions are aware of these defects they may adjust their perceptions of risk/return appropriately. We are not, however, persuaded that this is the whole of the explanation. In section 5 we consider other disadvantages or costs of direct property investment which go unrecorded by conventional measures of risk but which might be important to institutions. We confirm there are peculiarities attaching to direct property investment but that these cannot wholly explain the high return that institutions seem to need to induce them to hold only a small proportion of their portfolio in property. We are left, therefore, with the conclusion that institutions’ perceptions of the merits of property investment are a significant factor. Thus, in section 6, we try to identify ways in which an active market in unitized property might encourage institutions to hold larger property portfolios in future.     

The simple analytics of agricultural production quotas

Abstract

The literature on the theory of supply management is disparate. The aim of this paper is simply to bring it together in a largely non‐mathematical way. The Cochrane Proposal, which was the first real exposition of how a supply control policy might operate, is reviewed. The paper then focuses on production quotas in the short and long runs and examines the impact of uncertainty.     

The incidence of agricultural policy on the land market in Poland: Two-dimensional and multilevel analysis

Research has shown that the reform of the CAP which broke the link between subsidies and production (the decoupling reform) has had little effect on farmers’ demand for land under the SPS (Single Payment Scheme) system. For this reason, in the conditions of the SPS, there is petrifaction of the structure of agricultural land, and an upward trend in prices on the market for agricultural land should not be expected to continue in the long term. Under the conditions of the SAPS (Single Area Payment Scheme), which applies in the EU-12 new Member States, the position in the market for agricultural land is different. However, most research carried out in Europe relates to the SPS system, where marginal changes in the value of land are identified as a result of the incidence of agricultural policy, as well as quantitative and qualitative attributes of particular properties. Under SAPS, these issues have not been sufficiently investigated. The authors have attempted to fill that gap, constructing a two-dimensional and multilevel econometric model for land prices in a leading agricultural region of Poland based on a sample of 653 transactions in the years 2010–2013. The aim is to determine how policy, as well as various quantitative and qualitative features, including location factors, affect the prices of land under SAPS. The results indicate, among other things, the key importance of the functional type of rural areas – properties in agrotouristic areas gained 43% higher prices on average than those in agricultural areas. Another finding of interest is that LFA and agro-environmental payments decapitalise the value of land.     

Investment in site-specific crop management under uncertainty: implications for nitrogen pollution control and environmental policy

This paper applies an option‐pricing model to analyze the impact of uncertainty about output prices and expectations of declining fixed costs on the optimal timing of investment in site‐specific crop management (SSCM). It also analyzes the extent to which the level of spatial variability in soil conditions can mitigate the value of waiting to invest in SSCM and influence the optimal timing of adoption and create a preference for custom hiring rather than owner purchase of equipment. Numerical simulations show that while the net present value (NPV) rule predicts that immediate adoption is profitable under most of the soil conditions considered here, recognition of the option value of investment indicates that it is preferable to delay investment in SSCM for at least 3 years unless average soil quality is high and the variability in soil quality and fertility is high. The use of the option value approach reveals that the value of waiting to invest in SSCM raises the cost‐share subsidy rates required to induce immediate adoption above the levels indicated by the NPV rule.     

Farmland transition in China and its policy implications

China’s land use structure is closely related to its economic development. Based on the theoretical analysis framework of China’s farmland transition (FT), this paper establishes an evaluation index system for quantifying FT from two dimensions, the dominant transition and recessive transition, and uses K-means clustering to quantitatively divide the phases of FT in China over the past four decades. The results show that the FT in China has experienced several phases from slow transition, rapid transition, to steady transition and innovation transition, and demonstrates clear regional differences. The dominant transition phase, social and ecological farmland transition, mainly occurred during 2000–2010. The economic farmland transition occurred earlier, during 1990–2000. Spatially, the economic farmland transition gradually shifted from the southeast coastal area to the inland. The “structure-function” transition of China’s farmland in the past four decades can be divided into four phases: the preliminary exploration and development phase, the steady development and expansion phase, the market-oriented reform and deepening phase, and the reform and innovation phase. Finally, relevant policy implications and suggestions were proposed for the optimal management and regulation of farmland according to the characteristics of FT, its challenges and people’s new demand for farmland functions.     

Generic advertising without supply control: implications of funding mechanisms for advertising intensities in competitive industries

Producer profit-maximising rules for generic commodity advertising programs and associated funding levies are derived. Lump-sum, per unit and ad valorem levies, and government subsidy funding arrangements are compared and contrasted. The initial single-product competitive market model is extended to incorporate international trade, government price policies, and multiple commodity interactions.     

The impact of anti-corruption measures on land supply and the associated implications: The case of China

The allocation of land resources is a crucial issue in sustainable urban development, but it is subject to the vagaries of public governance. By using the prosecution of corrupt local leaders as the shock event, and exploring the data on sacked officials and land transfers in prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2016, we analyse the changes in the supply of land in response to the ousting of key local officials for corruption. The estimations derived through the identification strategy of the DID framework show that both the volume and value of land sales dropped significantly after the local officials’ ousting, with the value of total land sales reacting to a much greater extent. We also found the reduction of land supply was mainly from commercial and residential land but a greater supply of land for public use following the local leaders’ ousting, accompanied with an increase in the level of marketisation in the supply of land and a reduction in cheap transfers of industrial land. In addition, the heterogeneity of the effect across the rank and type of official was investigated, and the long-term persistence of this effect was confirmed. By showing that anti-corruption measures have a persistent disciplinary effect on officials’ subsequent land supply strategy, this paper underscores that the quality of public governance profoundly influences the functioning of the land market.     

The effects of agricultural policy on supply and productivity: Evidence from differential changes in distortions

Incentives in agriculture are highly distorted. It has long been argued that these distortions were a key explanation for differences in supply and productivity across countries, but the empirical evidence is limited. We revisit this issue using data on policy distortions across 63 countries for the period 1961–2011. We estimate the effects of differential changes in agricultural distortions across countries on supply and productivity. We highlight concerns in our analysis and previous work about endogeneity that biases the estimated effect downward—countries that lose comparative advantage are likely to increase support for agriculture. We address these concerns by including country and region-time fixed effects, along with a rich set of controls. Overall, we find evidence that enhanced incentives through policy changes can increase the rate of production growth, with about half of the increase due to productivity increases. This result is strongest in Sub-Saharan Africa where anti-agricultural policies on exports were reduced and in Europe where pro-agricultural policies on imports were reduced, driven largely by external pressure. Endogeneity appears to be strongest in Asia where countries have followed the typical pattern of raising support for agriculture during industrialization due to a rising farm-urban income gap.     

我国水产种业体系建设政策的供给及演化

水产种业是促进水产养殖业持续稳定发展的根本,加强水产种业体系建设一直以来是我国渔业政策的重要内容。论文对建国以来我国水产种业体系建设发展历程和相关政策进行了系统的梳理和总结,把水产种业体系建设政策的供给类型划分为强化基础设施类、强化监督管理类、强化产业扶持类、强化科技支撑类、强化资源保护式等五大类型。水产种业体系建设是一个层次推进、逐步完善的过程,论文最后归纳了我国水产种业的政策演化的主要特点：从外延式扩张向内涵式提升演进、从总体制度规划向内在体制机制建设演进、从开发为主向开发与保护并重的演进、从由政府主导向由企业主导演进。     

韩国海洋渔业开发政策及其对中国的启示

一个时期,中国渔民与韩海警之间的对抗和冲突愈演愈烈。出现这一恶性循环现象的根源,固然有《中韩渔业协定》生效导致中国渔业空间被挤压丧失2/3,中国渔民无鱼可打的客观原因。但中国的海洋渔业开发政策本身存在问题,加剧了中国海洋渔业资源的紧张和枯竭,这也不容忽视。相比韩国在过去30来年海洋渔业可持续发展的开发政策,有效的管理和投入,解决了渔业资源开发和渔业永续发展问题。韩国政府帮助、引导渔民转产、转业,减少渔民队伍,提高了渔业生产效率;对渔民失渔、失海问题,及时予以发展性的补偿;发展海洋旅游替代传统渔业;等等。这些政策措施和努力,都支持了韩国海洋渔业的可持续发展,对中国颇多启示。     

Grain-for-green policy and its impacts on grain supply in West China

China's grain-for-green policy of converting steep cultivated land to forest and grassland is one of the most important initiatives to develop its western inland regions. Using a multi-objective programming model, this study assessed the impacts of this policy in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River. In addition to the strategic planning of converting cultivated land to forest and grassland and its associated impacts, three other scenarios were simulated. Results showed that impacts on grain supply at the national level were in the range of 2–3%. These results suggest that the proposed policy might not have a major impact on China's future grain supply and the world grain market. At the local level, however, impacts could be significant.     

市场经济条件下我省粮食供求状况及对策

2004年以来,国务院决定按照"放开购销市场,直接补贴粮农"的思路,全面放开粮食购销市场和价格,充分发挥市场机制在配置粮食资源中的基础性作用,实现了粮食购销市场化和市场主体多元化.