市场准出与多边货物贸易体制关系研究——兼评“限制出口案”的抗辩思路

长期以来,人们对于多边货物贸易体制的理解往往停留在市场准入这一层面,即降低进口产品关税、向进口产品开放市场。形成这种片面理解的原因固然是多方面的,其中最主要的还是与世贸组织的前身——关贸总协定创设期间的国际贸易环境有关。经过第二次世界大战的浩劫,各国政府都面临外汇短缺,都想通过扩大出口以增加财政收入。因此,人们习惯把关注的目光聚焦在关贸总协定各缔约方是否有效消除针对进口的关税壁垒和非关税壁垒。事实上,多边货物贸易体制规制的对象是双重的,即在要求世贸组织成员对其它成员开放本国(地区)市场的同时,也要求其降低本国(地区)产品出口的门槛。最近发生在中国与其它世贸组织成员之间有关中国限制部分产品出口的贸易纠纷使人们对于市场准出与多边贸易体制之间的关系有了新的认识。     

Firm export dynamics and the geography of trade

Two recent trends in international economics have been an increased focus on the geography of trade (e.g. what factors determine where a country exports) and the emergence of new theoretical and empirical work examining exporting activity at the firm-level. However, data limitations have prevented much progress in combining these two areas, because very few countries provide firm-level data breaking down firm exports by their destination. This paper uses a unique survey of Irish exporting firms with information on over fifty destinations for a five-year period to fill some of the gaps in this empirical literature. In particular we investigate how well the predications of a model of exporting with firm heterogeneity fits with the patterns of this detailed data source. Amongst our findings are that firm productivity differences are a factor in explaining the number of export markets a firm has but the prediction of a hierarchy of markets could only be weakly upheld by the data. Firm involvement in individual export markets is found to be much more dynamic than export status. Entry and exit to markets is shown to be a quantifiably important component of overall export flows, with this factor becoming more important for less popular markets. The paper also shows how the patterns of entry and exit into export markets combine to determine the overall firm-level distribution of number of markets entered.     

The strategic use of early bird discounts for dealers

We study a widely used ordering process (“Early Bird Discounts”) whereby a profit-maximizing manufacturer permits his dealers to place advance orders at a discount before they set retail prices. We show that such discounts may be used to shift just enough channel profits to dealers to enable them to cover their fixed costs and stay in business. If the manufacturer instead simply cut his wholesale price in order to generate gross margins for his dealers, these margins would soon dissipate as price competition among dealers selling the same product forced retail prices back down to the per-unit cost. We show that when dealer fixed costs are low, the manufacturer offers an Early Bird Discount to his multiple dealers that induces all but two of them to exit; when fixed costs are high, the manufacturer offers no preorder discount (i.e. switches to linear pricing) and induces all but one dealer to exit. Although uniform slotting allowances could also be used to reward dealers, a sales-based alternative like an Early Bird Discount sometimes has a key advantage when the manufacturer has dealers in cities of different sizes. If the same Early Bird Discount is offered, dealers in markets with more consumers, who typically have larger fixed costs, will preorder larger amounts and will automatically receive higher gross margins. To duplicate such payments with slotting allowances, non-uniform allowances would have to be offered to firms in different markets, which is divisive and possibly illegal.     

The Determinants of Firm Exit from Exporting: Evidence for the UK

This study seeks to understand to what extent new exporters are able to survive in international markets and whether exit from exporting is more likely to be associated with firm-level heterogeneity or more general factors such as trade costs and/or barriers to entry and exit (such as sunk costs). This study presents the first analysis undertaken for a nationally representative group of UK firms on the determinants of exit from exporting, using panel data covering all market-based sectors of the UK during 1997–2003. Our findings suggest that the probability of a firm ceasing to export is directly influenced by its productivity and other attributes associated with firm-level productivity differences (such as size and foreign ownership). Micro-finance factors, such as profitability and the ability to finance through long-term debt, play an additional role. Lastly, sectoral differences (e.g. industrial concentration) also help explain the firm’s exit decision, whilst trade costs lead to a higher probability of exiting from selling internationally.     

An examination of momentum strategies in commodity futures markets

Commodity futures and equity markets differ in several important respects. Nevertheless, it was found that momentum profits in commodities are highly significant for holding periods as long as 9 months, and returns to momentum strategies are roughly equal in magnitude to those that have been reported in stocks. The profits documented are too large to be subsumed by transactions costs. Although the momentum strategies appear to be quite risky, their profitability cannot be fully accounted for in the context of a market factor model. Further, it is shown that momentum profits eventually reverse if positions are maintained long enough after portfolio formation. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:227–256, 2007     

Does the Impact of Employment Protection Legislation on Foreign Direct Investment Differ by the Skill Intensity of Industries? An Empirical Note

In line with previous literature, we find that strict employment protection deters foreign direct investment. This finding is consistent with the view that rigid labour markets result in high adjustment and exit costs which discourage firm investment. Moreover, our results are consistent with the view that the deterrent effect of rigid labour markets depends on the skill intensity of an industry.     

Foreign acquisition and post-privatization exit of state-owned firms

This paper analyzes the impact of foreign and domestic ownership on the exit rates of privatized state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in transitional countries. The exit of privatized SOEs can have a profound impact on employment and on the development of local economies of transitional countries. An oligopoly model that incorporates country-level trade costs and individual SOE's productivity is developed to assess the exit of SOEs under either foreign or domestic ownership. The model shows that market competition between firms can lead to liquidation of the SOE by a domestic firm when trade costs increase. When the productivity of SOE is high, neither foreign nor domestic firm will liquidate. The predictions of the model are tested using firm-level privatization data from Central and Eastern Europe. By controlling for productivity, trade costs, and other attributes of SOEs after privatization, it is found that foreign ownership significantly reduces the probability of SOE's exit as compared to domestic ownership. Furthermore, there is evidence that as trade costs increase, the exit probability of domestically owned SOEs increases and the exit probability of foreign-owned SOEs declines.     

Serial nonlinear internationalization in practice: A case study

International business scholars still pay the most attention to two firm types: (1) gradual/step-by-step/Uppsala type internationalizers and (2) international new ventures/born globals. Serial nonlinear internationalizers (SNIs) – firms with several subsequent exits and re-entries or considerable foreign involvement fluctuations – have received almost no attention. This exploratory study aims to contribute to the emerging serial nonlinear internationalization literature by (1) discussing the nature of an Italian machinery producer's serial nonlinear internationalization, (2) explaining why it internationalized nonlinearly and (3) developing research implications. It concludes that despite having had a year or more without export activities in 29 countries (in eight of them twice or more) and activities only in seven countries in 2011, this firm has been relatively successful. Thus, de-internationalization is not automatically a sign of failure. Moreover, subsequent de- and re-internationalizations are normal for other firms besides project businesses, especially if their markets are small and exit/re-entry costs low.     

Exploring the Relationship Between Export Intensity and Exporter Characteristics,Resources, and Capabilities: Evidence From Chile

This study focuses on exporters in Chile in order to compare the characteristics, resources, and capabilities for export success (RACFES) possessed by high, medium, and low intensity exporters. Data for this study were collected throughan Internet survey of Chilean manufacturers that export. Of the 480 companies in the sample, 133 responded to the questionnaire consisting of 69 items, yielding a total response rate of 28%. The analysis of variance procedure was used to analyze linear items and the chi square procedure was used for nonlinear items. The results indicated that export intensity in Chile is very strongly associated with firms that are smaller in size, have had export operations for longer periods of time, are highly involved in foreign markets, and are vertically integrated with their international target markets. These firms have also been very successful in overcoming export barriers. They make greater use of promotional strategies to expand their export markets and use sales agents as a means for reducing distribution costs. These firms are more likely to have vertically integrated their Chilean operation with their international target markets and to have created working international networks. The major limitation of this research is that it was carried out in only one South American country, with a rather limited sample size. A practical implication of this study is that companies in small countries, endowed with comparative advantages based on natural resources, can successfully penetrate export markets by imitating Chile's thriving export companies. Export penetration factors for small, resource-based countries like Chile are not very different from those for large developed countries.     

Entry and exit in disequilibrium

Most entrepreneurship theory depicts disequilibrium as the most common state for entrepreneurial activity and yet remarkably very little empirical research investigates the role of entry and exit in this type of external environment. Drawing on economics and organizational ecology we outline reasons why the interrelation between entry, exit and incumbent firms is likely to vary when the actual number of firms is higher or lower than the number that a market can sustain. We also introduce a new empirical methodology to explain entry and exit levels in two different types of disequilibria comprising situations when markets under and over shoot carrying capacity. Using a data set on the retail industry, we find that in undershoots a lack of competition between incumbent firms restores equilibrium by creating room for new-firm entry. In contrast, in overshoots competition induced by new firms (in particular strong displacement) restores equilibrium. We also find that equilibrium-restoring mechanisms are faster in over than undershoots. The results highlight that the behaviour and impact of entry and exit varies depending on the type of disequilibrium.     

Trade Credit in Small and Medium Size Firms: An Application of the System Estimator With Panel Data

Financing through suppliers is a subject that has been little studied in the economic literature in general and in corporate finance in particular. Although several hypotheses have been put forward to explain the different reasons behind this phenomenon, trade credit is not based on a general theory. This study provides empirical evidence about factors determining the use of trade credit for a sample of small and medium size firms, which are potentially the firms that would follow this financing route, since they are more rationed in credit markets. Using a panel of Canary-Island firms from 1990 to 1996, and by means of specifications with the system estimator, results reveal that trade credit leads to a reduction in asymmetric information between firms and their financial backers, as well as in transaction costs. Furthermore, we confirm the theory that companies with easier access to institutional finance act as a credit channel for those with greater difficulties to obtain external funds.     

Closing small open economy models

The small open economy model with incomplete asset markets features a steady-state that depends on initial conditions and equilibrium dynamics that possess a random walk component. A number of modifications to the standard model have been proposed to induce stationarity. This paper presents a quantitative comparison of these alternative approaches. Five different specifications are considered: (1) A model with an endogenous discount factor (Uzawa-type preferences); (2) a model with a debt-elastic interest-rate premium; (3) a model with convex portfolio adjustment costs; (4) a model with complete asset markets; and (5) a model without stationarity-inducing features. The main finding of the paper is that all models deliver virtually identical dynamics at business-cycle frequencies, as measured by unconditional second moments and impulse response functions. The only noticeable difference among the alternative specifications is that the complete-asset-market model induces smoother consumption dynamics.     

Shutting up shop: understanding the international exit process in retailing

Internationalisation is a much-studied phenomenon. Exit from international markets has been less analysed. Where it has been studied, most work has been on motives and causes, with relatively little on processes. This article explores the process of international exit in a retail context. It examines the run-up to, announcement of and fall-out from the decision by Marks and Spencer (one of Britain's leading retailers) to close its French stores. The article concludes that understanding the process of market exit is at least as important both for theoretical and practical reasons as understanding the decision to exit or divest. Further research needs to be undertaken on market exit and the processes involved, in order to contribute further to the theory and practice of internationalisation.     

Exploring the influence of resource environments on absorptive capacity development: The case of emerging market firms

Research recognizes that emerging market firms (EMFs) have relatively underdeveloped absorptive capacity. Yet, scarce attention has been paid to the conditions that constrain or facilitate EMFs’ absorptive capacity development. In this article, we explore how differences in home country resource environments influence EMFs’ absorptive capacity. We suggest that home country institutions and factor markets influence EMFs’ choice among three learning strategies: duplicative imitation, creative imitation, and innovation. Building on the organizational learning perspective, we then explore how learning strategies of EMFs’ from different emerging economies influence their preferences with respect to sources of new knowledge, and consequently the implications of these strategic choices for their absorptive capacity.     

Cross-border venture capital investments in Asia: Selection and exit performance

We investigate the investment behavior and exit performance of VCs that have pursued expansion outside their home locations, specifically, in Asia. Our findings indicate that, in the Asian VC markets, foreign VCs have relative advantages over local VCs in terms of size and experience while they are at a disadvantage in information collection and monitoring due to both geographic and cultural distances. When investing alone, foreign VCs are more likely to invest in more information-transparent ventures. Partnership with local VCs helps alleviate information asymmetry and monitoring problem and has positive implication for the exit performance of local entrepreneurial firms. Specifically, we find that after controlling for the endogeneity of selection, firms with both foreign and local VC partnership are about 5% more likely to successfully exit.     

Transportation,freight rates,and economic geography

We investigate the role of competitive transport markets in shaping the location of economic activity and the pattern of trade. In our model, carriers supply transport services for shipping manufactured goods, and freight rates are set to clear transport markets. Each carrier must commit to the maximum capacity for a round-trip and thus faces a logistics problem as there are opportunity costs of returning empty. These costs increase the freight rates charged to firms located in regions that are net exporters of manufactured goods. Since demand for transport services depends on the spatial distribution of economic activity, the concentration of production in one region raises freight rates to serve foreign markets from there, thus working against specialization and the agglomeration of firms. Consequently, a more even spatial distribution of firms and production prevails at equilibrium when freight rates are endogenously determined than when they are assumed to be exogenous as in the literature.     

Transportation, freight rates, and economic geography

We investigate the role of competitive transport markets in shaping the location of economic activity and the pattern of trade. In our model, carriers supply transport services for shipping manufactured goods, and freight rates are set to clear transport markets. Each carrier must commit to the maximum capacity for a round-trip and thus faces a logistics problem as there are opportunity costs of returning empty. These costs increase the freight rates charged to firms located in regions that are net exporters of manufactured goods. Since demand for transport services depends on the spatial distribution of economic activity, the concentration of production in one region raises freight rates to serve foreign markets from there, thus working against specialization and the agglomeration of firms. Consequently, a more even spatial distribution of firms and production prevails at equilibrium when freight rates are endogenously determined than when they are assumed to be exogenous as in the literature.     

(Not So) Easy Come, (Still) Easy Go? Footloose Multinationals Revisited

The central question of this paper is to test whether multinational firms (MNFs) are more likely to exit the local market than domestic firms. Using firm‐level data for Belgium, we estimate a random effects probit model taking into account the endogeneity of firm size, total factor productivity (TFP) and sunk costs in firm exit. Our results highlight two features of the ‘footloose’ nature of MNFs. First, controlling for firm and sector characteristics, the exit probability of MNFs is larger than that of domestic firms. Second, MNFs have a lower sensitivity to TFP and size than do domestic firms. This means that an improvement in economic performance on the local market will not prevent a multinational from closing its local plant as much as it would for a domestic firm.     

Banking market power and its determinants: New insights from MENA countries

This paper evaluates the degree and determinants of banks' market power in 13 MENA countries for the years 2000 to 2018, with a special focus on customers' switching costs and banks' cost efficiency. We find that MENA banks enjoy a substantial degree of market power on the loan market, while their customers have to face remarkable costs in case of switching to other banks. Banking market power increases with the level of switching costs and is higher when credit institutions are more cost efficient, focus on the traditional intermediation activity, are smaller in size, and operate in countries where stock markets are less developed, banking markets are more concentrated, the inflation rate is lower, and GDP growth is poor. Our results are robust to alternative specifications and estimation techniques.     

Die Globalisierung — eine umkehrbare Geschichte?

A global labour division with a corresponding exchange in trade has always existed, ultimately for reasons of pragmatism; the volume and structure of this labour division did particularly depend on technical and economic conditions. Today, low haulage makes the division of labour exceedingly intense, supported by the unprecedented reduction of trade barriers in the Post-War period. The latter phenomenon had always been controversial, as impacts of global trade on welfare were, and still are, unequally distributed. The winners seek to secure their advantages, while the losers try to defend themselves against competitors. There are two lessons to be learned from historic experience: On the one hand, that a limitation of global labour division is altogether unfavourable; first, that the costs resulting from an occasional limitation are only acceptable under the premise that the time gained is used for structural reforms that allow the return to the global division of labour. A permanent exit from global economy, however, has (thus far) never turned out to be successful.