Determinants of urban population density functions: a procedure for efficient estimates

A model of urban population density functions is proposed that uses all available data on densities in urban areas. "This model postulates that population density at each census tract in each city is determined by city size, transportation costs, land supply, income and age of city." The model is applied to data on cities in Israel.     

土地财政与最优城市规模

土地是有限的,完全依靠土地收入的发展模式是不可持续的。本文主要考察土地财政作为地方政府的一种融资渠道,城市建设用地规模的使用是否与城市人口规模的增加相协调,是否存在过度扩张城市面积促进地区经济发展的现象。为了分析土地出让收入(地租)、公共品供给以及城市规模之间的关系,本文以乔治亨利定理为基础,并引入林达尔均衡条件建立起最优城市人口密度理论模型。采用1999～2009年31个省面板数据对中国城市成本收益模型进行计量分析,结果表明全国26个省低于估算的最优城市人口密度,验证了中国存在城市面积的扩张与人口的增加不协调发展的情况。     

SPATIAL INTEGRATION OF URBAN WATER SERVICES AND ECONOMIES OF SCALE

This research attempts to analyze economic effects of spatial integration of urban water service markets in Korea, employing the notion of economies of scale in terms of cost-effectiveness. The economies of scale are measured by the elasticity of supply with respect to the production cost from the translog cost function of urban water supply enterprises. It was found that the economies of scale in most urban water utility firms of Seoul Metropolitan region have continuously increased during the period 1989–1994. While the economies of scale would be hardly influenced by the changes in population density, they would tend to decrease marginally in response to the rise in employment density. If the urban water markets of the Seoul Metropolitan Region were consolidated into a single water service market without any changes to the current spatial network of water supply and regional economic attributes, the production cost would be reduced up to 47.1 percent of the actual cost in 1994. Those savings would be enough to make up for the financial deficit of the water production of the Seoul Metropolitan Region.     

基于物元分析的住房土地供应结构绩效评价——以天津市为例

土地供应作为宏观调控的重要手段,是影响房地产市场的重要因素。以天津市为例,从结构效应、经济效应和公平效应三个方面构建由15个评价指标组成的指标体系,利用物元分析模型进行绩效评价。物元模型客观地确定各指标的权重,能满足房地产市场绩效内部的复杂性。研究结果表明,天津市的土地供应结构介于一般和好之间。针对目前的土地问题,提出了合理制定土地供应计划、引导合理的住房消费、拓宽地方政府财政收入等方面的政策建议。     

银川城市用地合理扩展的对策探讨

银川市是西北地区重要的区域中心城市,近10年来随着经济的快速发展,城市用地进入快速扩展时期.与此同时,城市发展受到土地资源的约束也越来越强,城市发展与合理利用土地的矛盾日益突出.文章分析了银川市城市用地扩展过程中土地利用的问题,进而提出解决问题的对策建议,以期为同类城市用地合理扩展提供借鉴.     

A theoretical relationship between the rank-size rule and Clark's law of urban population distribution: Duality in the rank-size rule

This paper theoretically shows the necessary and sufficient conditions for the robust rank-size rule: the rank-size rule that robustly holds for any choice of threshold urban population density by which populations of cities are determined. First, it is shown that when urban population distribution follows Clark's law, the robust rank-size rule holds if and only if the gradient parameter of the negative exponential distribution of the ith ranked city as √i times as large as that of the first ranked city and the population density at the center is the same for all cities. Second, when urban population distribution follows a certain general class of urban population distribution functions, the robust rank-size rule (of population) holds if and only if the boundary condition is satisfied and the rank-size rule holds with respect to urban areas. These two rank-size rules, the rank-size rule of population and the rank-size rule of urban areas, form the primal-dual relation. Third, if the robust rank-size rule holds, then the constant density rule holds, that is, the average population density of a city over its urban area is the same for all cities.     

Optimal density of radial major roads in a two-dimensional monocentric city with endogenous residential distribution and housing prices

This paper proposes an analytical urban system equilibrium model for optimizing the density of radial major roads in a two-dimensional monocentric city. The proposed model involves four types of agents: local authorities, property developers, households and household workers (i.e. commuters). The local authorities aim to maximize the total social welfare of the urban system by determining the optimal density of radial major roads in the city. The property developers seek to determine the intensity of their capital investment in the land market to maximize the net profit generated from the housing supply. The households choose residential locations that maximize their utility within a budget constraint, and the commuters choose the radial major roads that minimize their individual costs of travel between home and workplace. A heuristic solution procedure is developed to find the urban system equilibrium solution. A system optimum model is also proposed to optimize the density of radial major roads that maximizes the social welfare of the urban system. The proposed model can endogenously determine household residential distribution and land values across the city, along with the housing market structure in terms of housing prices and space. Numerical comparative static analyses of congestion pricing and road infrastructure investment (adding a new radial major road) are carried out together with evaluation of the effects of the service level of radial major roads, urban population size, and household income level on the urban economy.     

A switching regression analysis of urban population densities

An application of the switching regression technique in the field of urban economics is presented. The technique is applied to the study of urban population density functions, which recent research has suggested are inherently discontinuous. The method of switching regression developed by Quandt is used to estimate density functions for selected U.S. urban areas. The results show that population density contours are highly irregular, and also that the model selection approach can be used to select the number of regimes in a switching model when this number is unknown     

山东省城镇地区就业现状与劳动力供求变动趋势

利用统计年鉴数据和人口普查资料,分析山东城镇地区就业现状,认为城乡就业问题集中在城镇地区,城镇劳动力供给大于需求,城镇经济活动人口的二元化特征显著。利用弹性法和构成法分别预测了2008-2020年城镇劳动力需求和供给变动趋势。结果表明,在十三五中后期山东省劳动力供求矛盾有望缓解。最后提出了解决城镇劳动力供求矛盾的对策建议。     

The effect of property taxes on urban areas

The effects of property taxes on urban areas are studied relative to a local wage tax. The changes in urban population and in the consumption and price of housing are determined in cities with various types of production sectors. Distortions in the composition of housing and residential density patterns are also reported. Examples are constructed to quantify the size of the changes and test whether property taxes are capitalized into land values.     

Modeling the urban land market: The case of Japan

Two sets of negative exponential functions, one for urban residential density and the second for land price, are estimated. The parameters of these functions are then employed in an econometric model of land use and urban form in 71 Japanese cities. Several variables are determined, including average land price, gross population density, housing size, and population.     

Congestion,agglomeration, and the structure of cities

Congestion costs in urban areas are significant and clearly represent a negative externality. Nonetheless, economists also recognize the production advantages of urban density in the form of positive agglomeration externalities. The long-run equilibrium outcomes in economies with multiple correlated but offsetting externalities have yet to be fully explored in the literature. Therefore, I develop a spatial equilibrium model of urban structure that includes both congestion costs and agglomeration externalities. I then estimate the structural parameters of the model using a computational algorithm to match the spatial distribution of employment, population, land use, land rents, and commute times in the data. Policy simulations based on the estimates suggest that congestion pricing may have ambiguous consequences for economic welfare.     

我国城市化进程中的宏观调控问题

我国目前正处于城市化高峰时期,为协调有序地实现城市化进程,避免先行国家走过的历史弯路,必须以科学发展现为指导,切实加强宏观调控,作者对中国城镇化的相关宏观问题──最终城镇化目标和最终城镇人口总量问题,实现最终城市化目标的时间跨度问题,城市人口密度与城市建设用地问题,城市规模和城市数量问题,城市布局的空间选择问题,调控政策和调控机制建设问题等进行了讨论.     

Land Tenure in the Changing Peri‐Urban Areas of Ethiopia: The Case of Bahir Dar City

Ethiopia's urban expansion and development strategy has been based on the acquisition of land by government from adjacent peri‐urban areas. The land in the peri‐urban areas is predominantly agricultural in nature, and it has been held by local farmers or landholders. This article aims to examine the nature of urban expansion and development from the perspective of the land rights of the local peri‐urban landholders. To achieve this purpose, it has employed a case‐study approach. As urban territory extends into adjacent peri‐urban areas, the land rights of local landholders are expected to be automatically cancelled and transferred to people who can pay for a lease. This shows that very little attention is paid to the land rights of local landholders in peri‐urban areas in the process of urban expansion and development. Therefore, it is not difficult to imagine that local landholders in those areas have a prevailing sense of insecurity about their land.     

我国普通商品住房供求的影响因素及其稳定性研究

本文利用1997年到2009年全国以及各地区的房地产面板数据,借鉴蛛网模型的相关理论,构建供给与需求的联立方程,选择固定效应IV估计法拟合面板联立方程模型,对普通商品住房供求的影响因素及其稳定性进行了实证研究。结果表明,我国的普通商品住房市场处于不稳定状态,普通商品住房当期及滞后期的价格、城镇人均可支配收入、城镇就业人口、土地购置面积、经济适用房、别墅的供求状况等因素都对普通商品住房的供求变化产生较为显著的影响。     

城乡要素自由流动促进新发展格局形成的路径研究

城乡要素自由流动是畅通国民经济循环、构建“双循环”新发展格局的内在要求。从需求端看,城乡要素自由流动既有利于劳动力等要素流向城市、推进新型城镇化;也有利于高端要素回流乡村,激发乡村蛰伏的发展潜能、促进乡村振兴,从而为构建“双循环”新发展格局拓展新的内需空间。从供给端看,城乡要素自由流动有利于畅通生产、分配、流通和消费各环节,平衡城乡要素结构,提升要素配置效率,为构建“双循环”新发展格局培植新动能。因此,要发挥“有效市场”在要素配置中的决定性作用,深化城乡要素市场化配置改革,消除阻碍城乡要素自由流动和高效配置的各种体制障碍,打通“双循环”新发展格局中城乡要素流动的关键堵点。要发挥“有为政府”在乡村基础设施和政策体系制度供给中的作用,深化户籍、土地等制度改革,使城乡人口流动摆脱户籍制约,构建城乡统一的建设用地出让机制。要加大对要素返乡的支持力度,全面推进城乡新型基础设施建设,为形成“双循环”新发展格局提供有力的要素支撑。     

中国城镇化的战略问题

论述了中国城镇化面临的速度与目标、人口与土地、城乡人口结构及城乡居民点结构、城镇化政策的重点等战略问题,并以对两个方案的对比分析对这些问题进行讨论,得出须从体制、机制层面更多地激励中小城市及小城镇集约合理地使用土地资源;面向原乡村居民发展低成本房地产业,吸引其落户,应成为重要的政策导向.     

基于城市化进程中城市土地供应运行机制的分析与思考

城市化和工业化进程的高速发展,城市土地供应的重要性越来越突出,分析现行城市土地供应机制,土地资源的供应与社会需求之间矛盾日益尖锐并且呈失衡的发展态势,城市土地利用率低下以及城市用地盲目扩大与大量闲置土地并存,社会经济发展对土地需求的增长性与土地资源的稀缺性之间的不协调性备受社会和相关学者关注。合理引导控制城市化进程中城市土地供应,优化城市土地利用结构,探讨研究城市土地供应运行机制显得十分重要。     

Household location in a linear multi-center metropolitan area

The application of monocentric models of residential location to the analysis of metropolitan areas with more than one center of economic activity, produces a distorted view of the spatial distribution of urban variables such as land values, housing prices, etc. This distortion results from the fact that monocentric models tend to underestimate the values of these variables in areas lying between the centers, and yield wider residential areas toward the outskirts of the city. In this paper, a model of household location is developed, which attempts to correct this distortion by simultaneously considering the urban centers during the residential location process.     

MANAGING METROPOLITAN GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA*

This paper examines selected problems of managing growth in large Asian cities. Managing the national urban system presents difficult problems because of the very high capital costs associated with absorbing population in the very large metropolitan areas. Cost savings from promoting a decentralized settlement pattern are small compared with reductions in nationwide infrastructure standards and other non-spatial strategies. Asian cities have not managed spatial decentralization very well. A sound approach may involve more intervention in some spheres (e.g. accelerating the supply of basic services to newly developed residential neighborhoods) and less intervention in others (e.g. prior selection of subcenters, large-scale land acquisition and other land use controls). Urban service delivery strategies have been hampered by the lack of resources, timidity in the introduction of cost recovery systems, and inadequate operations and maintenance.