股改前后A股和H股价格发现的动态演化

本文选取A股、H股同时上市的公司股票价格数据为样本,采用Granger因果检验和信息份额模型,实证检验了股权分置改革前后A股、H股价格发现的动态演化过程。Granger因果检验表明,股改后H股更多地引导A股;信息份额模型显示,股改前,A股市场在股票价格的形成中占有一定的优势,股改后,H股市场在股票价格的形成中的优势逐渐明显。实证结果表明,股改后A股市场与成熟资本市场正逐步接轨,A股市场与H股市场的关联性得到进一步加强。     

数字货币市场是否达到了弱式有效？——基于广义谱方法的检验

数字货币市场近些年逐渐吸引了投资者注意，随着交易量的增大和交易者的增加，很多 投资者进入这个市场试图获得超额收益，对于这样缺乏基本面信息而主要靠量价信息驱动的市场， 检验市场弱式有效不仅对投资具有重要意义，也为评价市场信息效率提供了依据。本文选取 OKEX 交易所成交量最大的数字货币BCH、BTC、EOS、ETH 和ITC 的现货和期货合约、芝加哥 交易所的期货合约2017 年至2019 年4 月的日度数据，采用广义谱方法检验了世界主要数字货币 市场是否达到了弱式有效，此方法可以检验收益率序列存在的非线性序列依赖，并允许存在各种 未知形式的条件异方差。广义谱检验结果表明：交易量较高的现货和期货合约均已达到弱式有效， OKEX 交易所期货合约的有效性高于现货，芝加哥期货合约由于低成交量反而未达到弱式有效。     

股权改革的三阶段托宾q效应

本文试图为我国股权分置改革的效应评价提供一种方法,并对股改效应做初步考察。文章将股改以来的时间序列分为三个阶段,利用面板数据模型,分析了股权改革对上市公司资产价值的影响。结果表明:在股改启动期,股权改革使多数公司的价值得到提升,且提高幅度相近;在新股发行酝酿期,股改效应进一步扩大,但优质公司的扩大速度明显快于其他公司;而在股改与新股发行并行期,劣质公司的股改效应迅速回落,而优质公司基本保持稳定。这说明,资本市场的定价功能正在完善,公司价值正趋于理性分化。为确保后期股改顺利推进、巩固已有的股改成果,本文最后提出了相应的政策建议。     

中国银行业股改对A股银行股的影响

非流通股的存在是中国资本市场的一个特殊之处。文章探讨了中国银行业股改对A股银行股的影响。文章将样本分为国有商业银行和股份制商业银行两组,并对以下方面进行研究：计算并检验累积超额收益率（CAR）的显著性,发现多数银行股在股改期间获得了显著的正的累积异常收益率;利用GARCH（1,1）模型,证明改革对波动率并无太大影响;检验系统性风险在事件前后的变化,表明股改后CAPM解释国有商业银行股表现能力的提高,与股份制商业银行的情况较为接近;展示一些财务指标在股改的影响下有了持续渐进的改善。总的来说,尽管改革产生了正面影响,仍有一些问题在改革中亟待解决。     

中国股权分置改革初期效应的时序列分析

股权分置改革是我国股市进入新时代的标志性事件。在典型投资者的最优投资/消费决策模型的基础上,本文做出了股权分置改革初期会带来股票收益率结构性变化的推论。通过建立合适的时间序列模型,对市场中具有代表性的钢铁板块股票进行了具体的实证检验,本文验证了这一推论。同时还考察了钢铁板块股票收益率在股改前后模型中系数的具体变化,揭示出股权分置改革初期所带来的、深层次的市场结构和投资观念的变化,肯定了股权分置改革初期的积极效应,并提出相应的政策建议。     

股权分置改革中股市恐慌行为初探——基于VEC模型的实证分析

文章对股改中股市的异常波动现象,通过协整检验和构建向量误差修正模型等方法的实证分析,得出本轮股改中股价下跌的真正原因并非是大小非解禁本身,而是由解禁所引起的市场中的恐慌心理。并经进一步的分析可得,股市中恐慌的来源是机构投资者,其由此产生的规避行为进一步加剧了市场恐慌。上述现象的深层原因在于股改中对价设计的不合理。     

全流通解禁压力探秘

6月17日，第一家进行股改的G三一（600031）部分限制流通股正式获得流通权，从而拉开了股改限制流通股上市的序幕，标志着股权分置改革已经进入到检验成果的阶段。限制流通股的上市势必对市场产生巨大的影响，而其中不但蕴涵着风险，同时也给市场带来了投资机会。     

8家公司股改方案为何被否

2月27日,沪深两市49家公司亮相于第22批股改公司名单,这标志着完成股改和进入股改程序的上市公司市值已占A股总市值的53．85％。随着全流通市场雏形初现,证券市场正逐步恢复其“本来面目”,此刻再来回顾8家股改方案被否决的公司(截止3月3日),可以发现诸多共性。     

中国股权分置改革与股市波动的非线性持续

本文针对中国股权分置改革以来股市运行的现实,通过对非平稳非线性ARCH模型的扩展,揭示并解释了股市收益波动的特征:短期内波动存在ARCH效应但集聚性相对较弱,这说明中国股市的短期风险在加剧;成交量以非线性逻辑函数予以解释和确定,这意味着股改后中国股市的长期风险在减弱。基于此本文认为,股改后中国尤其应加强短期风险管理,强化对市场的监管,长期风险的减弱意味着股改使股市的承载能力增强,因而可适时适度扩大股市规模,以此缓解流动性过剩和减弱短期风险。     

沪深两股票市场弱有效性实证分析

本文介绍了有效市场理论的起源、发展和在中国股票市场中的运用。同时,采用2009．1．1～2011．5．9的上证指数、深证成指和上证180的每日收盘价,对中国股票市场的弱有效性进行实证分析。主要采用ADF单位根检验,游程检验和序列相关检验。得到结论并对我国股市提出相应的建议。     

反转策略在中国A股市场的适用性分析

选取A股市场1999年至2008年的非金融股票数据,建立一维排序模型,分别持有1年、2年和3年,计算了价值股组合和绩优股组合的持有期收益率。实证结果表明:运用反转投资策略能够获取超额收益,B/M、C/P和E/P策略在大多数年份适用于我国市场,能够取得超额收益,而GS策略则完全不适用于中国市场。     

基于Fama-French三因素模型的我国A股市场的实证分析

实证检验了Fama-French三因素模型描述我国A股市场期望超额收益率的解释能力。分别针对上证A股和深证A股做了四类模型的回归分析,为了能够从各类模型的对比中准确地捕捉到各因素影响投资组合期望超额收益率动态特征。结果显示,随着公司规模和账面市值比的变化,市场风险因素的系数变化不大,而规模风险因素的系数和账面市值比风险因素的系数呈现巨大差异,模型的拟合效果表明Fama-French三因素模型在我国A股市场表现出相当高的解释能力。     

中国股票市场流动性价值研究——双重上市A、B股经验证据

本文首先利用流动性综合测度指标,将证券交易数量、证券流动性水平及证券市场流动性水平引入到证券价格函数中,构建了证券价格差异的流动性模型,从流动性角度探讨证券价格溢价问题,在理论上证明了证券流动性价值的存在性。随后,本文利用A、B股股票实证分析证券流动性价值,实证结果表明,股票流动性水平与股票市场流动性水平可以解释A、B股价格差异,中国股票市场存在流动性价值,流动性价值受股票流动性水平、股票市场流动性水平以及股票交易数量影响。     

股权分置改革：现状、问题与建议

对由于历史的原因所形成的我国上市公司的股权分置进行改革就是要清除国有股、法人股流通屏障,赋予其流通权。股权分置改革是我国证券市场的深刻革命,是国有企业体制改革的深化与延伸。本文就我国目前股改的形势,股权分置改革的性质、意义及影响进行分析,并提出了完善股改的十项政策建议。     

Efficiency,Cointegration and Contagion in Equity Markets: Evidence from China,Japan and South Korea*

This paper empirically examines whether three East Asian stock markets, namely, those of China, Japan and South Korea, are individually and/or jointly efficient, and whether contagion exists between the cointegrated markets. While individual market efficiency is examined through testing for the random walk hypothesis, joint market efficiency is examined through testing for cointegration and contagion. The present study finds that the hypothesis of individual market efficiency is strongly rejected for the Chinese stock market, but not for the Japanese and the South Korean stock markets. However, when testing for cointegration, market efficiency is strongly rejected for all these markets. We take a simple case of contagion and find that although there is a long‐term relationship among the three markets, the contagion hypothesis cannot be rejected only between Japanese and South Korean stock markets, indicating short‐run portfolio diversification benefits from these two markets.     

我国A股市场中的波动性之谜与市场情绪

本文使用Campbell和Shiller(1988)基于对数线性RVF的VAR非线性Wald检验方法对我国A股1994-2009期间的数据进行实证研究,结果表明样本期间我国A股股价相对其基础价值表现出"过度波动"的迹象,无论是常数超额收益率模型还是V-CAPM模型都无法对此进行解释。通过进一步定义市场情绪指数来分析这种"波动性之谜"现象的原因,结果发现市场情绪和股市"过度波动"之间存在相互作用机制,市场情绪能够对股价波动提供额外的解释。     

THE CHANGING EFFICIENCY OF AFRICAN STOCK MARKETS

This paper classifies formal African stock markets into four categories and discuses the principal characteristics of the seven markets covered in this study: South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Mauritius and Kenya. Using a GARCH approach with time‐varying parameters, a test of evolving efficiency (TEE) is implemented for periods starting in the early 1990s and ending in June 2001. This test detects changes in weak form efficiency through time. The TEE finds that the Johannesburg stock market is weak form efficient throughout the period, and three stock markets become weak form efficient towards the end of the period: Egypt and Morocco from 1999 and Nigeria from early 2001. These contrast with the Kenya and Zimbabwe stock markets which show no tendency towards weak form efficiency and the Mauritius market which displays a slow tendency to eliminate inefficiency. The paper relates weak form efficiency to stock market turnover, capitalisation and institutional characteristics of markets.     

Share liquidity, participation, and growth of the Boston market for industrial equities, 1854-1897

Financial economists have long believed that the liquidity of shares affects the level of participation in equity markets and is thus central to their deepening. This study examines the growth in industrial share liquidity that occurred in Boston over the latter half of the 19th century. From primary sources hitherto unused for scholarly investigations, namely the running annual worksheets of securities price fluctuations that underlie broker Joseph Martin’s volumes on the history of the Boston stock market, I construct broad-based indices of annual prices and returns for banking and industrial equities, as well as measures of real market capitalization. A series of vector autoregressive models then relate increases in liquidity, as measured by falling par values of industrial shares due to stock splits, write-downs and re-capitalizations, entries, and exits, to advances in prices and capitalizations among traded firms. The findings support the view that increases in participation were important for sustaining Boston as the nation’s leading industrial market until finally overtaken by New York sometime around 1900.     

Regional stock markets and the economic development of Southeast Asia

The paper examines the contribution made by the establishment and operation of a local stock exchange to the economic development of Southeast Asian (SEA) countries. The paper informs investors and policymakers about the current status of SEA stock market development and the associated positive and negative effects of such initiatives. Policymakers have placed a clear focus on SEA stock markets as a primary driver of regional economic growth. However, it is questionable whether SEA is ready for such an ambitious economic initiative, particularly given the reported negative effects of lesser developed stock markets. Despite these negative implications, the benefits appear to outweigh the costs for SEA stock markets. It is perceived that SEA stock markets will drive further economic reform, financial liberalisation, and market integration, promising tremendous benefits for both the region and the international investment community. The paper concludes with questions regarding the efficiency of stock markets in SEA and offers recommendations for further empirical research.