Estimating Homeownership Costs: Owners' Estimates of Implicit Rents and the Relative Importance of Rental Equivalence in the Consumer Price Index

This paper discusses the relative importance of Rental Equivalence (REQ) in the U.S. Consumer Price Index. A hedonic model of rents is estimated, and the resulting parameters are then used to compare hedonic estimates of implicit rents to homeowner estimates like those actually used to estimate the REQ expenditure weight. There are several reasons why hedonic estimates might be below actual implicit rents, and these effects are controlled for in the model. Owner estimates of implicit rents are then shown to be comparable to such hedonic estimates. Results support the method used to estimate the expenditure weight.     

How Much Will Consumers Pay? A Hedonic Analysis of the Cable Television Industry

Because cable television is the classic example of a bundled commodity, it is difficult to determine how consumers value individual cable networks offered on a typical system. This paper uses a modified hedonic framework to determine the marginal willingness to pay by consumers for individual cable networks. The traditional hedonic framework is adapted to allow for the lack of competition on the supply side of the market. It is clear that consumers do value some types of programming more than other types. Sports, news, and family programming all have positive implicit prices while program guides have negative marginal prices.     

Housing Attributes Associated with Capital Gain

Housing units are heterogeneous goods. Rates of change in housing prices are typically modelled as if they arise from factors unrelated to the housing unit itself. For example, housing price increases in the latter part of the 1970s and early 1980s are argued to have arisen primarily from demographic factors and the differential effects of inflation on the effective rate of taxation on income from corporate capital and on owner-occupied housing. Cross-sectional variation in price inflation is not addressed. Consumers who purchased housing units are not indifferent to their attributes. To the extent that expectations vary within regional housing markets as a consequence of variation in housing attributes, standard linear hedonic price regression may generate biased estimates of implicit prices. This paper identifies sufficient conditions for the estimates of implicit prices in linear hedonic price regressions to be unbiased and generate unbiased estimates of implied price changes. Finally, this paper identifies living space (house size) as a significant attribute related positively to the increase in individual housing prices in a regional market.     

The Long‐Run Relationship Between House Prices and Rents

I use standard error‐correction models and long‐horizon regression models to examine how well the rent–price ratio predicts future changes in real rents and prices. I find evidence that the rent–price ratio helps predict changes in real prices over 4‐year periods, but that the rent–price ratio has little predictive power for changes in real rents over the same period. I show that a long‐horizon regression approach can yield biased estimates of the degree of error correction if prices have a unit root but do not follow a random walk, and I construct bootstrap distributions to conduct appropriate inference in the presence of this bias. The results lend empirical support to the view that the rent–price ratio is an indicator of valuation in the housing market.     

Towards a differentiated modeling of origin effects in hedonic analysis: An application to auction prices of specialty coffee

Origin matters. This has been shown by numerous studies using either discrete choice or hedonic approaches to derive implicit prices for origin as a product attribute. In most of the hedonic studies, intercept dummies were introduced for specific regional origins and statistically significant coefficients of those variables were seen as an indication of either a superior or inferior reputation, compared to products from other origins. We argue that hedonic pricing models of this type may be too simple to detect the true origin effects if assessments of a product’s sensory quality are available and interact with prior beliefs about reputation. Based on a supply-and-demand framework to explain auction prices, a reduced-form hedonic pricing model is suggested that includes intercept- as well as slope-dummy effects of the regional origin. Because reputation and the objective product quality are particularly important for markets of differentiated, high-quality foods and beverages, we analyze electronic auction markets for specialty coffees. The findings for the Cup of Excellence data reveal that it is important to distinguish reputation, sensory quality, and their interaction as determinants of coffee auction prices, as well as varying origin impacts across market segments.     

Explaining Intermetropolitan Variation in Housing Prices, Rents and Land Prices

In attempting to explain why housing prices, rents and urban land prices vary so dramatically between U.S. metropolitan areas, a simple model of a metropolitan housing market is presented identifying three interrelated submarkets. Estimating equations for rent, housing prices and urban land prices are identified and estimated using two-stage least squares. The empirical results provide strong support for the theoretical model concerning how these three submarkets interact. The results also suggest that household income and construction costs are the most important factors causing housing prices, rents and land prices to vary between metropolitan areas.     

An Arbitrage-Free Estimate of Prepayment Option Prices in Fixed-Rate GNMA Mortgage-Backed Securities

In an efficient market, the no-arbitrage condition implies that the price difference between any two assets must be the market value of all differences in their cash flows. We use this logic to deduce the price of the prepayment option embedded in fixed-rate Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA) mortgage-backed securities. The option price equals the difference between an observed GNMA price and the cost of a synthetic, nonprepayable GNMA constructed from the least expensive portfolio of Treasury securities that exactly replicates the promised GNMA cash flow stream, assuming prepayment is precluded. We regress the option prices on variables found significant in previous prepayment studies, finding that five key regressors explain more than 90% of the prepayment option value in pooled time-series cross-sectional analysis. We also show that the time value of the prepayment option calculated by our method displays a pattern similar to that produced by the Black-Scholes (1973) option pricing model. An additional empirical result is the existence of negative option prices and negative time value of the option prices. We attribute these to the fact that homeowners sometimes exercise their prepayment options when they are out-of-the-money, and to refinancing transaction costs. Our method is independent of assumptions regarding interest rate processes and the homeowner's prepayment behavior, and it provides a benchmark for testing theoretical prepayment models.     

Chicago's Office Market: Price Indices, Location and Time

Conventional wisdom holds that overbuilding and high vacancy, coupled with curtailed tax benefits, have led to reduced office property values since the late 1980s. Yet assertions that office real estate values fell between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s are not supported everywhere by convincing evidence. This study offers a hedonic analysis of Chicago area office properties that sold from 1986 through 1993. Whereas earlier office market studies generally have been based on rents, this study focuses on variation in actual sale prices (although the prices were not adjusted for financing differences). The transaction-based index estimated here does not support the existence of a nominal office property price level decline beginning in the mid-to-late 1980s. In fact, the results show an upward trend in office property values after 1986, with nominal declines in office market price levels occurring only in the latter portion of the study period.     

Valuing the Redevelopment Option Component of Urban Land Values

This study draws from the redevelopment, real option, and urban spatial growth literatures to explore the spatial dynamics of the components of house prices. More specifically, the paper proposes that the capitalized value of the option to redevelop housing at the property level can be estimated by incorporating the likelihood of exercising the redevelopment option (the probability of redevelopment) into spatial and nonspatial hedonic house price models. Accordingly, option values are estimated for properties across the spectrum of the housing life cycle. Results from the study reveal a substantial level of spatial variation and clustering in the predicted option values, indicating that location is a major determinant of redevelopment and real option values. Furthermore, the results provide new evidence in support of the theoretical construct that properties purchased for immediate redevelopment are only valued for the underlying land.     

Implicit Forward Rents as Predictors of Future Rents

This paper investigates the relation between the term structure of rents and future spot rents. A rich database of office rental agreements for various maturities is used to estimate the term structure of rents, and from this structure implicit forward rents are extracted. The data pertain to commercial properties in the three largest Swedish cities for the period 1998–2002. A positive relation between forward and spot rents is found in some regions, but forward rents underestimate future rent levels. Another contribution of the paper lies in the area of rental index construction. We provide evidence that rental indices should not only be quality constant ( i.e. , control for characteristics), but should also be maturity constant.     

Do Tenants Capture the Benefits from the Low‐Income Housing Tax Credit Program?

This article compares the rent savings accrued by recipient households over the life cycle of Low‐Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) projects to their allocated tax credits. A simple two‐stage empirical procedure is developed and implemented for a selected medium‐sized metropolitan statistical area. Using hedonic pricing parameters estimated in the first stage, LIHTC ceiling rents are compared to predicted market rents. The findings indicate rent savings constitute a relatively small fraction of the programs costs, suggesting developers and investors may capture some of the program's benefits. As this finding characterizes only one potential source of benefits of the LIHTC program, a brief discussion of other potential benefits to low‐income households supplements the analysis.     

Auctioning Horizontally Differentiated Items

This paper analyzes competition between two sellers that offer horizontally differentiated items at competing auctions. Three possible outcomes can arise in equilibrium. For substantially differentiated items the monopoly reserve prices form an equilibrium, and the market is not entirely covered. When products become closer substitutes, a non-empty interval of types becomes valuable to both sellers. When transport costs are low, and virtual valuations are high, sellers compete for these bidders and set their reserve prices below the valuation of the marginal bidder. In equilibrium all types enjoy participation rents. For intermediate levels of transport costs it is not worth competing for runaway bidders. In this case, there is a continuum of equilibria. In each equilibrium sellers adjust their reserve prices so that the marginal bidder gets no rents.     

Interpretable machine learning for real estate market analysis

Machine Learning (ML) excels at most predictive tasks but its complex nonparametric structure renders it less useful for inference and out-of sample predictions. This article aims to elucidate and enhance the analytical capabilities of ML in real estate through Interpretable ML (IML). Specifically, we compare a hedonic ML approach to a set of model-agnostic interpretation methods. Our results suggest that IML methods permit a peek into the black box of algorithmic decision making by showing the web of associative relationships between variables in greater resolution. In our empirical applications, we confirm that size and age are the most important rent drivers. Further analysis reveals that certain bundles of hedonic characteristics, such as large apartments in historic buildings with balconies located in affluent neighborhoods, attract higher rents than adding up the contributions of each hedonic characteristic. Building age is shown to exhibit a U-shaped pattern in that both the youngest and oldest buildings attract the highest rents. Besides revealing valuable distance decay functions for spatial variables, IML methods are also able to visualise how the strength and interactions of hedonic characteristics change over time, which investors could use to determine the types of assets that perform best at any given stage of the real estate investment cycle.     

Zoning and Industrial Land Values: The Case of Philadelphia

This paper examines the market effects of zoning. Using the hedonic framework, we perform an empirical analysis that shows that lots zoned for industrial use in our study area are associated with a 58% price discount. The paper highlights the outcome of static zoning policies in a dynamic world. As the demand for industrial land in Philadelphia declined (resulting in vacancies), prices fell, but zoning was slow to adjust, therefore land conversion did not occur to re-equilibrate.     

A Metropolitan Transaction-Based Commercial Price Index: A Time-Varying Parameter Approach

This study examines the usefulness of time-varying parameter techniques for constructing reliable transaction-based commercial price indices for metropolitan areas. Time-varying parameter techniques allow the implicit prices of differing quality characteristics to vary intertemporally, overcoming the potential bias imposed by holding implicit prices fixed and simply interpreting time dummy variables as in a conventional hedonic approach. This paper empirically investigates three time-varying parameter methods (Chained, Laspeyres, and Paasche) and considers the potential for sample selection bias. Precision measures are constructed to examine the reliability of the respective indices.     

Momentum and House Price Growth in the United States: Anatomy of a Bubble

This article analyzes the bubble in property values across cities in the United States from 1999 through 2005. We find evidence of momentum in house price growth (relative to growth in rents) away from the underlying fundamentals throughout the 1980–2005 period; however, momentum increased after 1999. We find that the bubble happened mostly after 2003; it was for a relatively short period and was characterized by a series of positive, seemingly random, shocks that were associated with the surge in the subprime market and the decline in short‐term interest rates. Before that price changes were reasonably well explained by the fundamentals, particularly the decline in long‐term interest rates in the early part of the bubble period. We do not find evidence of a tendency for prices relative to rents to revert to a long‐run trend.     

Appraisal, Agency and Atypicality: Evidence from Manufactured Homes

The appraisal of the "market value" of homes serving as the collateral for mortgages is a fundamental part of the underwriting process. If a loan should default, however, it is not the retail market value that the lender obtains, but rather the "recovery value." In this research, we show how recovery values differ from market values at origination and explore the reasons for the differences. Using a large sample of chattel mortgages on manufactured homes, we explore the relationship among the selling prices, the book values, and the fitted values from simple hedonic models with spatial autocorrelation. We then address the differences between selling prices at origination and recoveries from repossessed homes. We find that the spread between them varies systematically with home characteristics and especially with "atypicality," that is, with measures of how unusual a home is. Selling prices both at origination and recovery affect borrower defaults.     

An Evaluation of Hedonic Price Indexes for Thirty-four Large SMSAs

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, a set of price indexes are developed for thirty-four metropolitan areas for the years 1975 and 1978. Indexes are also broken down by central city and suburb for twenty two of the metropolitan areas. These indexes measure variation in the price per unit of owner-occupied housing stock and the price per unit of housing services of rental housing. Confidence intervals are constructed for the price indexes. It is found that the indexes are reasonably precise measures in that the typical ratio of the confidence interval to the predicted median rent or value is about 13%. Also, analysis of the confidence intervals indicates substantial and statistically significant variation in the price of housing stock and services among the metropolitan areas studied. One of the major benefits of this set of indexes is that it can be used to address one of the most important questions in real estate — Why do housing prices and rents vary among metropolitan areas and over time? Research projects are currently underway that use the data to address these two questions.     

Inflation and Housing Prices*

Home ownership is a claim on the stream of net rents. Like any income-producing asset, the market capitalizes its value. The price-rent multiple depends upon the expected growth rate of revenues and expenses, on financing terms, and on taxes. This paper derives this price-rent multiple in terms of these variables and calculates its value from 1963 through 1978. The results indicate that housing prices grew more rapidly than rents and the CPI largely as the result of a 33% increase in the price-rent multiple over those years. This increase in the capitalization rate occurred, despite higher nominal financing terms, because the relative terms of housing finance tended to ease and because the expected growth rate of rents increased more than its discount rate.     

Rational Expectations, Market Fundamentals and Housing Price Volatility

This paper derives a forward-looking rational expectations house price model and empirically tests its ability to explain short-run fluctuations in real house prices. A novel approach to proxying the imputed rents of owner-occupied housing, as a function of observable housing market fundamentals, is combined with a housing market arbitrage relation to derive a present value model for real house prices. Tests of the rational expectations, nonlinear cross-equation restrictions reject the joint null hypothesis of rational expectations and the asset-based housing price model for quarterly, single-detached house prices in the city of Vancouver, British Columbia from 1979–1991. The model fails to fully capture observed house price dynamics in two real estate booms but tracks real house prices well in less volatile times, suggesting that prices may temporarily deviate from fundamental values in real estate price cycles.