Forecasting the world's problems : The Last Empire: the corporatization of society and diminution of self

A future scenario is postulated—‘The Last Empire’—based on concern with the ramifications of increasing corporatization and moves away from individualism. The globalization of the marketplace is marked by increasing cultural, psychological, social and ideological homogeneity, politicoeconomic centralization and the threat to individualism. Personal demands for autonomy and a liberalization of the human spirit provide the counter-thrust. These competing trajectories are the context within which major global problems are viewed. Five major issues are treated here: the global economy; nationhood and cultural determinacy; the economic dimension; the educational agenda; and the individual's outlook. In each area the clashes between individual involvement and corporatization, and their outcomes, provide the key to forecasting and dealing with the world's future problems.     

In occupied territory: future.con

Creating sustainable, diverse futures involves challenging assumptions that Western civilisation and linear, profit based models of unlimited development are universal. This is deeply threatening to many, but objections to such colonised futures are growing. Challenging these world-views means engaging with the complex and intersecting issues of culture, environment, globalisation, gender and sustainability. This paper tests Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) as a method to excavate the levels that have created the worldview behind one image of a colonised future. Analysis reveals a ‘Future.con’ which excludes most of humanity and pre-dicts a technological future in which humans may only exist to serve the machines they created. It is also the kind of image that, in a higher education context, fits and maintains pervasive but limited world-views. It could be different. Images and some of the tools of CLA can also be used in education to help envision sustainable, culturally diverse futures.     

Government policy and the development and use of biopesticides

Biopesticides developed and used in the future will emerge against the backdrop of the environmental effects associated with the use of conventional pesticides and government policies designed to control these effects. In the final analysis, farmers' choices on pesticides will be influenced by the prevailing costs and benefits of conventional pesticides and their alternatives including biopesticides. The outlook for pesticide use is complicated, though some directions can be perceived. There are a number of factors that will serve potentially to impact pesticide use which in turn will affect the development of biopesticides. These include pesticide regulation, the FAIR Act, the crops planted, the management of ecologically-based systems, and consumer demand for ‘green' products.     

The curse of globalised culture: the fall of Indian cinema foretold

Indian popular cinema, at the present juncture, is caught in a fix marked by two opposite trends—the overall decline in quality of the modern film resulting in rejection by audiences (as seen in endless commercial failures) and the nostalgic reverence among people about the classic films of earlier years, which had entertained and mesmerised them in a discourse that was beautiful, exciting and emotionally satisfying. This paper argues that the current decline in quality is part and outcome of the wider globalisation processes, consequently delinking cinema from the earlier creative roots. In this context, it makes some projections about the future of this cinema (and television) and suggests a set of future options to resurrect it from its present decline and to help the medium reinvent its past glory and social relevance.     

A precautionary tale:

In the wake of the minimal disruption to computer systems arising from the Y2K Millennium Bug, there has been a notable lack of discussion about whether the huge expenditures devoted to solving the problem were justified. The most common response was that they were worth it ‘just to be on the safe side’. Furthermore, there were many related benefits in upgraded infrastructure and improved systems. We argue that in fact Y2K activity is an important if unexpected example of the ‘precautionary principle’ at work, i.e. acting in advance to ward off potential danger despite a lack of full scientific certainty about the extent of danger. It was unexpected because it was championed by corporations and governments who routinely oppose precautionary policies directed at environmental issues such as global warming. The paper outlines several reasons why Y2K was acted upon so swiftly while environmental issues are not, and explores what lessons may be learnt from the Y2K episode in terms of future strategies for dealing with environmental danger.     

Futures research from the yam patch

Subsistence gardening continues to provide a meaningful way of life on the land for many peoples around the world. Those who seek to ‘help’ indigenous peoples, however, regardless of their motives, techniques, technologies, beliefs, or good intent, invariably interfere with and often destroy traditional ways of life. The interveners reduce the future prospects for those who do have skills and knowledge necessary to wrest a living from working the soil. The Nvhaal speaking people in Southwest Tanna, Vanuatu represent a case in point, for they have been subjected to so-called ‘improvements’ deriving from geological exploration, agricultural innovation, enhanced economic trade, exploitation of an export crop such as kava, improved health care, tourism, politicians, education, and Christian religions. As a result, lifestyles, skills and specialized knowledge bases are eroded, thereby endangering the long-term survival of these and by generalization, other indigenous people.     

Futures dreaming outside and on the margins of the western world

In this article, we challenge the hegemony of western science fiction, arguing that western science fiction is particular even as it claims universality. Its view remains based on ideas of the future as forward time. In contrast, in non-western science fiction the future is seen outside linear terms: as cyclical or spiral, or in terms of ancestors. In addition, western science fiction has focused on the good society as created by technological progress, while non-western science fiction and futures thinking has focused on the fantastic, on the spiritual, on the realization of eupsychia—the perfect self.However, most theorists assert that the non-west has no science fiction, ignoring Asian and Chinese science fiction history, and western science fiction continues to ‘other’ the non-west as well as those on the margins of the west (African–American woman, for example).Nonetheless, while most western science fiction remains trapped in binary opposites—alien/non-alien; masculine/feminine; insider/outsider—writers from the west’s margins are creating texts that contradict tradition and modernity, seeking new ways to transcend difference. Given that the imagination of the future creates the reality of tomorrow, creating new science fictions is not just an issue of textual critique but of opening up possibilities for all our futures.

Science fiction has always been nearly all white, just as until recently, it’s been nearly all male

(Butler as quoted in [1]).

Science fiction has long treated people who might or might not exist—extra-terrestrials. Unfortunately, however, many of the same science fiction writers who started us thinking about the possibility of extra-terrestrial life did nothing to make us think about here-at home variation—women, blacks, Indians, Asians, Hispanics, etc [1].

Is all science fiction western? Is there non-western science fiction? If so, what is its nature? Does it follow the form and content of western science fiction, or is it rendered different by its own local civilizational historical processes and considerations? Has western science fiction moulded the development of the science fiction of the ‘other’, including feminist science fiction, in such a way that anything coming from outside the west is a mere imitation of the real thing? Perhaps non-western science fiction is a contradiction in terms. Or is there authentic non-western fiction which offers alternative visions of the future, of the ‘other’?     

Future kinship and the study of culture

Throughout the 20th century, body and machine have provided distinctive parallel metaphors for the concept of culture. But now these metaphors are merging as human lives are increasingly engineered through technonatural processes. In one imagined future, biotechnology will give us the means to determine our own genealogy and the potential to play a role in the ‘culturing’ of the future, as the natural and unpredictable transmission of human characteristics is transformed into a predictable process arising from the manipulation of the gene pool. New procreative possibilities—fertilization in vitro, gamete donation, maternal surrogacy etc—challenge us to reconstrue notions of identity and kinship; the article speculates on the implications of this for possible cultural futures.     

Futures India: society, nation-state, civilisation

The future of a phenomenon can only be understood in terms of (a) the conceptual construction one makes of it and (b) the changes in empirical content of that phenomenon. In turn, the empirical reality ought to be discerned in terms of the past-present-future dialectic. Keeping this in view, this paper begins with conceptual clarifications of the terms society, nation-state and civilization and situates India in terms of these notions. It is suggested that India’s future as a society and as a civilisation is durable although some changes in their content are inevitable. But as a ‘nation-state’ India may radically change given the contestations about it. Four competing value-orientations—cultural monism, cultural pluralism, cultural federalism and cultural subalternism—about the contemporary Indian nation-state have been identified. India’s future as a nation-state will depend upon the legitimacy these value orientations achieve in future.     

Forecasting our environmental future

This series now comes to an appropriate end with the most menacing set of question marks ever raised about the future of the human race. During the past two decades—from the inauguration of the Club of Rome in 1967 to Margaret Thatcher's famous ‘green’ speech to the Royal Society in 1988—an ever growing volume of research has erased the old-time notion that we live out our lives in a steady-state world. As the bad news has spread—environmental pollution, acid rain, the warming of the oceans—a consensus of anxieties has found expression in a global fear for the future. Is there anyone who would gainsay the possibility that, as Mrs Thatcher put it, ‘with all these enormous changes—population, agriculture, use of fossil fuels—concentrated into such a short period of time, we have unwittingly begun a massive experiment with the system of the planet itself’? The scale of these changes and the measure of the dangers they bring—these provide the range of cause and effect in Dr Woodell's reflections on the great harm we have done to the human environment. This is the one occasion when an editor can truly say: Read on for the survival of our species.     

Editorial proximity equals publication success: A function of rational self-interest or good-faith economy?

This paper inquires into a recent finding that shows that proximity to the editor of a top accounting journal significantly increases one's chances of publishing in that journal. Three explanations are provided for this finding—two based on ‘rational self-interest’ and one on the ‘good-faith economy’. These explanations are further considered in light of interview data collected from individuals who worked in the same social space as these editors. While the first two of these explanations align themselves with the field's dominant methodological assumptions they alone do not fully describe actual practice in this field. Indeed, to the extent that this field's actors ignore or discount the third, good-faith explanation the field abrogates its scientific commitment to truth-seeking and objectivity, putting its faith instead in a naïve and potentially damaging vision of human behavior.     

Buildings for the Japanese information economy : Neighbourhood and resort offices

A new physical infrastructure to support activities based on communications and the transmission of information is being developed. Part of this infrastructure includes the construction of ‘intelligent’ buildings which are seen to play as important a role in improving efficiency of office workers as automation has played on the shopfloor of manufacturing industry. The location of these buildings is important. This article focuses on two types of experimental office development—neighbourhood offices and resort offices.     

The future for technological collaboration

Technological collaboration between firms is argued to be increasing and to be an important element of corporate and technological development. Such collaboration is actively promoted by governments. It is a central element of the ‘techno-globalism’ analysis of future international economic and technology development. There are many reasons for the promotion of collaboration, but its outcomes are mixed. Collaboration may reflect industrial and technological weakness; it has a limited technology focus, rarely appropriate to world problems; its international range is restricted to the global triad; and public policies and corporate strategies may be incongruent. By highlighting the many uncertainties surrounding collaboration, this article questions the techno-globalism analysis, and raises some issues concerning the future of collaboration between firms. It argues that whatever its future, the importance of indigenous capabilities remains critical for nations and for their firms.     

The interplay between professional groups, the state and supranational agents: Pax Americana in the age of ‘globalisation'

In response to recent calls for systematic and in-depth studies of the impact of international forces on local accounting practices, discourses and institutions, this essay explores the interconnectedness of national politics with global forces and the ramifications of this interaction for the regulation of accounting and the state–profession relationship. The paper employs Held's (1991) framework [Held, D. (1991). Democracy, the nation-state and the global system. Economy and Society, 20(2), 138–172.] on the role of the nation state in the age of globalisation, extended to encompass insights from the realist paradigm on international politics, to examine the international aspects of an attempt by a group of indigenous auditors in Greece to recapture their monopoly status, following the ‘liberalisation' of the Greek auditing profession in 1992. The paper explores changes in the state–profession relationship in the era of ‘globalisation' and documents the catalystic role of major states (the USA), politico-economic blocks (the EU), and other powerful international actors. It is posited that the politics of international accounting professionalism in the ‘globalisation' era are becoming more polycentric with (lesser) nation-states as merely one level (of diminishing importance) in a complex system of superimposed, overlapping and often competing national and international agencies of governance. The lessons to be learned from the Greek experience seem to be relevant to a number of countries — weaker or more important players in the world economy and politics — as they realign the assemblage of government in accounting and in other domains, in response to the progressive internationalisation of the world economy.     

Pacific science in the 21st century

‘Science’ is often implied to be something emanating from Western Europe or its derivatives. But the people of the 24 nations and territories of the Pacific Islands also want their unique scientific knowledge recognized and perpetuated. Politically the islands are divided into 24 nations and territories, and culturally their people speak about 1200 different languages—each with some differences of culture. This is much the greatest cultural fragmentation on earth. Each culture has, over thousands of years, experimented and discovered some unique principles and evolved some unique techniques. For example, some principles of Pacific navigation (for many centuries the world's most advanced) and techniques of vessel construction, are unknown elsewhere—even today. Some pharmaceutical remedies are unique, some items of marine and plant science are not known to ‘Western science’ and so on. It is to these that the term ‘Pacific science’ refers. This essay explores the potentials for Pacific science in the future, and for Pacific contributions to global knowledge.     

Virtual geography

Geography and its study are changing in subtle and dramatic ways in the rapid transition to a digital world. Here we present a preliminary discussion of how this new geography, which we call ‘virtual geography’, might be classified. Virtual geography is not merely Cyberspace per se for it comprises many types of place and space in which the digital world finds expression. We define cspace—the space within computers, cyberspace—the use of computers to communicate, and cyberplace—the infrastructure of the digital world, as key components of what Castells¹ refers to as ‘real virtuality’. Virtual geography is all this as well as the study of these worlds from traditional geographic perspectives. Like all classifications, the interesting questions lie at the boundaries between classes—between espace and cyberspace, cyberspace and cyberplace, and between all of these. We illustrate this variety and complexity with examples.     

The future of Muslim politics : Critique of the ‘fundamentalist’ theory of the Islamic state

This article considers the future of Muslim political thought in the context of growing de-Islamization and the dominance of Western institutions. The ‘fundamentalist’ theory of the Islamic state—total mobilization of Muslim societies under a universal state—is criticized as religiously an immanentist heresy, and politically a totalitarian nightmare. Proposed here is a way out of the moral and intellectual crisis in Islamic political thought through the principle of Shura—meaning that Muslims must evolve their own form of representative government.     

The ambiguities of globalization

Current discussions of globalization are flawed by confusing two issues: (1) the economic competition among sovereign nation states—so-called “global competitiveness”—which is used as an excuse to reduce social support budgets; and (2) the value of worldwide international organizations set up on a non-state basis—humanitarian, environmental or human rights NGOs, professional, sporting, labor or whatever. Opposition to “globalization” in the first sense is no obstacle to support for the second (NGO) development: on the contrary, NGOs can be the best instrument for countering inhuman governmental policies. The cogency of these economic arguments rests, this paper argues, on confusing two interpretations of the terms “global” and “globalization”. In multinational businesses or other global enterprises, these terms imply that the economic role of governments will be reduced, and global competition will take place between corporations: Fuji vs Kodak, Boeing vs Airbus, Compaq vs Toshiba. In governments, by contrast, the same terms imply a continued—even, enhanced—economic role for governments, so that global competition takes place, rather, between countries: Britain vs Germany, Japan vs the United States, Europe vs America. Business and Government talk at cross-purposes. The steps that multinational corporations take to reduce other “non-wage” labor costs—notably, their taxes—are seen by politicians and journalists as unpatriotic. Rather than follow business onto the global stage, defenders of environmental and labour interests retreat to the domestic stage, and leave governments to bring the corporations into line. If tackled on this level alone, the economic arguments are, indeed, hard to undercut: addressed “one nation state at a time” (so to say) matters of “comparative advantage” tempt rival governments to engage in competitive cost cutting, and the costs of social services are an obvious target for cost cutting, e.g. in France or Sweden. Tackled on a wider (“global”) level, however, the same issues can be stated in terms less damaging to labour and environmental interests. A Global Labour Office capable of looking the World Trade Organization in the eye, for instance, could set standards protecting those interests as strongly as those insisted on by international agencies for “transparency” in accounting, “fair” competition and the like. Excessive cutbacks in social protections, indeed, can then be judged to be “unfair” competition, and penalized as such.     

Globalisation and the environment: the long-term effects of technology on the international division of labour and energy demand

This paper examines the effect of the structural changes arising from the globalisation of production and innovation and from technological changes on the environment. Drawing on theories of international production from international business and innovation, we assess the impact of long-term technological change and changes in international production on the international division of labour and energy demand. We select two industrial sectors with different technological characteristics (the textile, clothing and footwear sector and the chemical sector). We examine the effects of the globalisation of production and of technological change on these two sectors on the level of industrial production and resource intensity in different regions and countries over the last 30 years. We speculate on the impact of globalisation of production and innovation in future pervasive technologies—information technology, biotechnology and nano-technology. The implications of these developments on industrial greenhouse gases emissions are assessed.     

Management accounting and accountability in a new reality of everyday life

This paper focuses on the concept ‘accountability’. Individuality and accountability is discussed against the background of management accounting in a privatised company in transition from command to market economy. With Berger, P.L., Luckmann, T., 1966. The social construction of reality. A Treatise on the Sociology of Knowledge. Garden City, New York, Doubleday/Anchor, the accountability concept is presented as a translation and interpretation of an institutional arrangement with a given logic or rationality. Based on a case study, the paper shows that changing views on accountability support the institutionalisation processes, constituting the case company as a market economy actor in which there is a ‘struggle’ between different rationale views (the market economy, social accountability and production-oriented views). The analysis explicates various ways in which these matters relate to the new way of talking about the company and its survival under market economy conditions—a struggle that management accounting must take into account particularly in the way it deals with the consequences of individual action.