企业管理决策行为中后悔因素的理论概述

企业管理决策过程中存在的各种主观偏差,使后悔情绪作为一种预期会改变决策效用。本文对以往决策行为中后悔理论的有关研究进行概述,发现决策者在决策过程中会作出力争把后悔情绪降低的决策行为。前人的后悔理论从不同角度考察后悔如何影响决策行为。决策者可能采取风险规避、风险寻求或者行动转移等策略。关于后悔的研究目前已获得了较为丰富的研究结果,但后悔研究中仍然存在着一些不足。     

基于效用的群决策方法在风险性决策中的应用

群效用函数,把群决策用于风险决策中能够得到满意的决策方案。在风险决策中,各种后果效用并不是一个决策者的效用,是群体决策而产生的群效用,用群效用函数来确定决策方案对风险决策是有效可行的。     

期望值分析法在企业风险分析中的应用

概率与数理统计的有关知识在企业风险分析中有着重要作用,应用概率统计中的期望值分析法对投资方案可行性进行分析评价,可加强决策者在风险情况下的决策依据,从而做出最佳决策。     

风险投资中的最小贝叶斯风险决策

最小贝叶斯风险决策使贝叶斯风险最小的决策方法。本文通过一个具体实例,阐述贝叶斯决策在风险投资分析中的应用。并由此得出结论:贝叶斯决策属于风险型决策,决策者虽不能控制客观因素的变化,但却可掌握其变化的可能状况及各状况的分布概率,并利用期望值即未来可能出现的平均状况作为决策准则。贝叶斯决策不是使决策问题完全无风险,而是通过其他途径增加信息量使决策中的风险减小。由此可以看出,贝叶斯决策是一种比较实际可行的方法。     

用效用矩阵指导决策的科学性

人们常用各种货币单位作为确定收益函数和损失函数的常用度量尺度,但是在现实生活中,许多事例表明,货币未必是度量行动效果的合理尺度。效用是决策者对决策后果的一种感受或偏好,是决策者的价值观和偏好在决策中的综合反映,它综合地表明决策者对风险所持有的态度,用效用矩阵去指导决策将更合理、科学。     

风险决策的范式转变:从规范到描述

风险决策是现实中人们面临的一个普遍问题。传统上对风险决策的研究是基于数学的规范范式;现在另一种基于心理学的描述范式正在兴起。本文通过实例详细阐释期望值理论、期望效用理论和前景理论的理论演进过程,揭示了对风险决策研究的这种范式转变。     

基于平衡计分卡的业绩评估体系中财务奖励因素的角色:调整情绪一致性偏差

情绪在决策时是一个低强度的感情状态,运用平衡计分卡评估企业绩效时起着重要作用。我们假设财务奖励因素能鼓励决策者调整情绪一致性偏差,使其判断和决策与情绪保持一致。     

中国银行小微贷款决策的非理性行为实验研究

银行小微贷款决策属于信息不完全条件下的不确定型决策,现代行为金融理论认为,人们往往由于认知偏差导致决策偏差,出现系统性的非理性行为.本文运用实验研究方法,对我国银行小微贷款决策者的三种非理性行为(损失厌恶、框架效应、心理账户)进行了验证,并进一步研究了性别、年龄、认知需求、决策方式等要素对非理性行为出现概率的影响.实验结果表明:(1)损失厌恶、框架效应在我国银行小微贷款决策者的决策行为中存在,但心理账户效应不显著;(2)就“损失厌恶”效应而言,男性、年轻人更易出现面对损失时的风险寻求,先个体后集体的决策方式能较好地避免这一现象;(3)就“框架效应”而言,女性和认知需求低的人显示框架效应的概率更高,而年龄对框架效应的影响不显著.     

期望值决策在商品经济活动中的应用

期望值决策是一种风险型决策,文中阐述了期望值决策的基本思想,指出了期望值决策的两种方法及两种方法所得决策结果的一致性,并对一个经济实例进行决策,给出了决策结果。     

决策环境与企业风险分析

<正>企业风险是企业整体损失的不确定性,主要与决策环境有关。由决策因素导致企业战略活动不能达到预期目的所形成的决策风险是企业风险的主要来源。本文分析了心智模式、决策者的认知偏差和群体决策极化效应三类典型的决策环境与企业风险的关系,探讨了心智模式的偏离和     

Choosing among alternative new product development projects: The role of heuristics

The initial screening decision that marketing managers make is critical. It requires the selection of what innovation project to invest in, which is fundamental to marketing success. However, our knowledge of how managers make these decisions and how this impacts performance is limited. By drawing upon cognitive psychology and the managerial decision-making literature, we address two critical questions. The first question focuses on identifying specific decision-making types (e.g., specific heuristics, intuition) used when making an innovation screening decision. Based on this analysis and prior research, we develop specific decision-maker profiles about how an individual manager decides. The second research question is about connecting these profiles with performance. Specifically, it addresses what the consequences of different decision-maker profiles are on the perceived accuracy and speed of decision-making? Data were collected from 122 senior managers in these industries. We find that when heuristics are used alone, or concurrently with intuition, managers make decisions that are as accurate as when they rely on analytical decision-making. However, the process is significantly faster. The findings provide an important step toward a more comprehensive understanding of decision-making at the front-end of innovation.     

A model of decision-making incorporating ethical values

A model is presented which describes the process decision-makers follow when faced with problems containing ethical dimensions. The model, based upon the empirical literature, is designed to provide guidance to researchers studying ethical behavior in business. The model portrays the decision-maker with a set of personal values which are mediated by elements of the organization's culture. The combination of personal values and organizational influences yields decisions which may be significantly different from those made based upon personal values alone. Inclusion of the personal values of the decision-maker as the dominant individual input and an explicit discussion of the ethical decision process make this model more comprehensive than other recent ethics models. David J. Fritzsche is Visiting Professor in the Department of Managing and Organization at the University of Washington. His articles have appeared in numerous journals and books. He is also a co-author of the Business Policy Game, a strategic management simulation.     

跨国投资决策主体及其他变量选择的探讨

本文认为,跨国公司投资决策,以子公司为主体进行现金流量的预测,不符合股东利益的要求,而以母公司为主体进行现金流量的预测,又违背了子公司作为独立经济实体的利益。利用复合主体进行评价,则可以扬长避短,兴利除弊,全面满足母、子公司决策的需要。首先进行以子公司为主体的评价,在子公司项目净现值大于零即项目本身可行的情况下,再进行以母公司为主体的投资评价,在此基础上合理处理利息和新增销售额对现金流量的影响,将更有利于投资决策的准确性。     

研究型购买者消费渠道转换模型研究

多渠道环境下,消费者试图通过增加信息搜索渠道数量,最终选择最为拟合自身需求的购买渠道。消费者特别是研究型购买者在产品既定的情况下会根据自身对消费渠道的感知价值决策是否采取渠道转换行为。本文通过文献回顾,提出感知价值的维度,并以其为自变量,根据期望效用理论设计研究型购买者的渠道转换模型,以及多渠道零售环境下的渠道策略。     

Strategic compliments in sales

Salespersons often spend time and money giving prospective buyers compliments such as kind words, meals and gifts. Though prior research has shown that compliments will influence a prospective buyer’s decision, it is unknown the extent to which salespersons should make these investments. In this paper, we develop an analytical model to examine how seller and buyer characteristics affect the equilibrium provision of compliments by the seller. We establish that the optimal magnitude of compliments is non-monotonic in the buyer’s sensitivity to compliments. We identify conditions for when a seller of a high-quality product will offer greater (or lesser) compliments than a seller of a lower quality product. We show that, under certain conditions, an uninformed buyer earns greater utility than a buyer who knows the quality of the seller’s product. The findings have implications for sellers in their choice of compliments and buyers in the inferences they draw from the compliments received.     

AHP在影院客户效用评价体系中的应用研究

现如今随着影院数量与种类的不断增加,消费者由于喜好不同,选择不同的电影院所产生的效用也是不一样的,如何选择电影院使得自身的效用最大化成为新一代消费者所面临的问题。本文运用层次分析法的相关理论知识,通过建立电影院线客户效用评价体系分析与计算,为客户决策提供参考。     

Community differences in business births and business growths

The published literature relating to the location of a business tends to support two different kinds of theories: (1) that business locations are selected to minimize costs; or (2) that decision-makers select locations because of personal preferences. This study attempts to find explanations as to why certain communities have grown faster than others, and to provide a model for the location decision of a start-up business.We find a negative correlation of two entrepreneurship measures to environmental factors that are usually considered to be desirable, i.e., health care and the environment, climate and terrain, recreation, and low crime. We find a weak correlation between community attitudes and the entrepreneurship measures. We also find a positive correlation of entrepreneurship with a high number of college graduates; a negative correlation when a high proportion of the population is over age 65.Population mobility and low unemployment are also positively correlated with the measures, but those factors seem at least as likely to be results as to be causes of business births and business growth.We believe that start-ups are vital for any community that wishes to grow, therefore the location decision of start-up businesses seems important. We propose a model of the location decision of a start-up, a model that emphasizes the individuality of the decision maker and the specific success requirements of the business. The driving force behind a start-up can be a decision-maker's desire for personal gain, a problem that begs a solution, or a solution that is looking for a problem. In some cases, the reason for starting a business will dictate its location. In other cases, success requirements of the business will dominate. We believe that researchers can gain a true understanding of the location decision only by considering both the preference of the decision-maker and the requirements of the specific business.     

The Effect of Low‐ versus High‐Variance in Product Reviews on Product Evaluation

This research investigates whether the effect of low‐ versus high‐variance product reviews on the evaluation of a product about which consumers have favorable or unfavorable prior expectation can vary depending on product type, the argument quality of product reviews, and the number of reviewers. The data across three laboratory experiments demonstrate that high‐variance product reviews are more likely than low‐variance product reviews to undermine product evaluation when consumers have unfavorable prior expectation about a product. When consumers have favorable prior expectation, however, high‐variance product reviews can enhance or undermine product evaluation depending on product category, the argument quality of reviews, and the number of reviewers. The findings are explained by the type of causal attribution consumers make, such that high‐variance product reviews can allow consumers to make biased product evaluation consistent with their prior expectation when the causes of variance in the product reviews are attributed to the reviewers rather than to the product. However, when the causes of variance are attributed to the product rather than the reviewers, high‐variance product reviews can undermine product evaluation regardless of the favorability of prior expectation.     

Price Awareness and Consumers’ Use of Deals in Brand Choice

There is evidence that consumer knowledge of prices is limited, implying that, on occasions, consumers may not be fully informed of prices when making a brand purchase. On such occasions, how do consumers make their brand choice decision? One possibility is that consumers use their expectation of prices. This raises an interesting question. To what extent is brand purchase either a function of preferences and posted prices or, of preferences and expectation of brand prices? Another important issue relates to the role of displays and features in simplifying consumer brand choice. First, do promotions cause consumers to restrict their attention to only promoted brands? Second, do promotions affect the price aware consumers more than the price unaware consumers? Our study uses scanner data on ketchup and peanut butter categories to answer the foregoing questions. We find that between 40 and 50% of the purchases are made by consumers using expectations of prices rather than posted prices. Consumers using price expectations may be thought of as being “unaware” of prices. We also find that promotions cause some consumers to focus exclusively on promoted brands, and this effect is greater on the price aware consumers than on the price unaware consumers. Our findings have an important bearing on the rationality of consumer expectation of prices, especially of the promoted brands. Price aware consumers act as a check against firms promoting without accompanying price cuts.     

Making choices under conflict: The impact of decision frames

How do people make choices when they see two equally positive versus two equally negative decision alternatives? The cancel-and-focus hypothesis argues that when people see options in a sequence, they tend to overweight the unique attributes of the first alternative. This leads to the prediction that when both options are positive (approach–approach conflict), the first option is preferred more but that if they are both negative (avoidance-avoidance conflict), the first option is preferred less. Based on recent research, we argue that this finding may be contingent on an unrecognized compatibility confound with the decision frame of choosing versus rejecting. In this research, we argue that the choice biases predicted by the cancel-and-focus hypothesis will be more pronounced when the decision frame (choose/reject) is incompatible with the valence of the alternatives (reject–positive and choose–negative) because such incompatibility increases processing motivation. We report two studies with varying operationalizations of decision conflict which find that cancel-and-focus effects are more pronounced under incompatibility. Taken together, these findings suggest that conflict effects are better understood by accounting for the decision frame as well.