Designing optimal gain sharing plans to promote energy conservation

We analyze the optimal design of gain sharing plans to promote energy conservation. We show how the optimal plan varies as industry conditions and the regulator??s information change. We demonstrate the importance of allowing the energy supplier a choice among plans, some of which offer the prospect of both pronounced financial gains for superior performance and substantial losses for inferior performance.     

Forecasting the economic,energy, and environmental impacts of national energy plans, 1990–2000

The objective of this article is to project the energy, economic, and environmental trade-offs to the year 2000 of President Carter's energy policies. It compares the trade-offs resulting from the National Energy Act of 1978 (NEA) with those from the synfuels strategy of July 1979. A hybrid model is used that consistently links the interindustry forecasting model of the University of Maryland (INFORUM) and the strategic environmental assessment system model (SEAS) with the FOSSIL 79 and ECONOMY 1 models. The study concludes that both these scenarios will a) reduce the growth rate of the economy, b) increase investment at the expense of consumption, and c) develop energy resources but d) deteriorate the quality of the environment in the Mountain States. In particular, in the synfuels scenario, compared with the base case, the study concludes that in the year 2000 energy consumption will increase from 94 to 95 quads, the GNP will decrease from $1.95 to $1.94 trillion, and in the Mountain States the particulates will increase by 67%, sulfur dioxides will increase by 10%, and nitrogen oxides will increase by 40%.     

Motivating energy suppliers to promote energy conservation

We examine the design of regulatory policy to induce electric utilities to deliver the surplus-maximizing level of energy efficiency services, $e^{*}$ . The rebound effect (whereby increased energy efficiency stimulates the demand for energy) typically renders revenue decoupling insufficient in this regard. The additional financial incentive required to induce $e^{*}$ is shown to vary with such factors as the prevailing price of energy, the magnitude of the rebound effect, the extent of observable energy efficiency investments, and the utility’s objective.     

Applying tradable permits to biodiversity conservation: Effects of space-dependent conservation benefits and cost heterogeneity on habitat allocation

This paper is concerned with the cost-effective allocation of habitat for species under spatio-temporally heterogeneous economic development. To address the dynamic dimension of the problem we consider tradable development rights as the instrument of choice. A particular challenge in applying tradable development rights is that the conservation benefit of an individual habitat patch depends on its spatial relationship with other habitat patches and thus is an emergent rather than a fixed property. We analyse with a conceptual model the spatial and temporal dynamics of habitats in a region under a tradable development rights market that takes spatial interaction of habitats explicitly into account. In our analysis two different outcomes may emerge depending on the levels of spatial interaction and cost heterogeneity: an “ordered” structure where habitat patches are clustered in space and are stable over time, and a “disordered” structure where habitat patches are scattered in space and subject to high turnover of destruction and recreation. A high level of spatial interaction or a low level of cost heterogeneity favours an ordered structure while a low level of spatial interaction or a high level of cost heterogeneity favours a disordered structure.     

Economic development by the creation of new sectors

The basic theme underlying this paper is qualitative change taking place during economic development. These changes in the composition of the economic system should become one of the most important variables in models of economic growth and development. Our knowledge of the relationship between economic development and qualitative change, however, is still very limited. This paper attempts to shed light on some important aspects of the role played by qualitative change in economic development, by laying the foundations of a model in which changes in the composition of the economic system are endogenously generated by the evolution of the system itself and, in turn, affect its future development. The model has a strong Schumpeterian flavour in that the first entrepreneur entering a market enjoys a temporary monopoly. This temporary monopoly is eroded by the entry of imitators, that gradually increases the intensity of competition. The saturation is reinforced as the demand for what was a new product comes to be satisfied. In this way the adjustment gap initially created by the innovation is eliminated transforming a niche into a mature market, which becomes one of the routines of the economic system. As soon as a sector becomes saturated there is an increasing inducement for incumbent firms to exit and to create a new niche, where once more they will have a temporary monopoly. To put it in another, slightly different, form, we can say that economic development is a process in which new activities emerge, old ones disappear, the weight of all economic activities and their patterns of interaction change.JEL Classification: O0, O12; O30Correspondence to: Pier Paolo Saviotti     

Unemployment or protectionism: Some choices for the USA and Western Europe to the year 2000

This article reports on the economic implications to the USA and Western European economies after imposing protectionist trade policies on selected groups of imports till 2000. The effects of this policy are also presented for Japan and the non-oil-producing developing countries. Before discussing the results of the computations and the import restricting assumptions, a summary of the methodological framework, the World Input-Output Model, used in the computation is presented.     

Biodiversity value and the optimal location of forest conservation sites in Southern Finland

Safeguarding biodiversity has been one of the most important issues in environmental and forest policies since the 1990s. In Southern Finland, decisions concerning further actions for the preservation of forest biodiversity will be made in the coming years. To support policy making, we present a multi-regional model that is applicable in determining the economically optimal regional allocation of conservation sites. Three habitat quality models are evaluated to calculate habitat quality indices used as a surrogate for a biodiversity value in a forest sector model. The scenarios presented provide information about the economic impacts of conservation choices on the forest sector. The overall economic impacts of conservation depend on its scale and regional allocation. Conserving land with high biodiversity value can have less adverse impact on the forest sector than conservation of typical commercial forest sites. When optimizing conservation set-asides, we found that set-asides targeted to certain regions possessing higher/lower than average relative share of ecologically valuable land, caused lower/higher adverse economic impacts on the forest sector. Because it is expensive to search land suitable for conservation, these regions could be respectively favoured/avoided when asking forest owners to offer their land for the new conservation program in Southern Finland, which will be based on voluntariness.     

The prospects of energy conservation: A different approach to the fuel demand for space heating

Zusammenfassung Die meisten empirischen Untersuchungen über das Ausmaß der jüngsten Energieeinsparungen verwendeten ökonometrische Beziehungen und Elastizitäten. Diese Arbeit jedoch geht von einer technischen Beschreibung des Services thermische Behaglichkeit aus. Basierend auf empirischem Datenmaterial über die Infrastruktur und das Klima der Stadt Wien werden sowohl die Aussichten und das Potential an Energieeinsparungen quantifiziert als auch der Effekt spezifischer Politiken. Für diesen Zweck wurde ein nichtlineares Optimierungsmodell mit disjunktiven Randbedingungen entwickelt und gelöst.

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Research leading to this paper was supported by a grant from the Austria Federal Ministry of Science and Research, and that support is gretefully acknowledged. We wish to thank P. J. Jansen for discussions on this topic and also the referees for their valuable comments on this paper.     

2000年理论经济学研究综述（下）

二、微观经济学研究和宏观经济学研究的新进展 (一)制度变迁过程的研究 制度变迁过程一直是我国新制度经济学研究的重点.杨瑞龙等在其中国制度变迁方式转换的三阶段假说的基础上,进一步提出了一个关于中国制度变迁的模型--阶梯式的渐进制度变迁模型.杨认为,改革初期,我国的制度变迁有很强的政府主导性,中央政府是主要的制度供给者,此时的制度变迁为"供给主导型制度变迁方式";改革进行到一定阶段后,地方政府在改革中的作用日渐扩大,此时属"中间扩散新制度变迁方式";随着改革的进一步深入和市场主体的确立,我国的制度变迁方式将逐渐过渡到与市场经济内在要求相一致的需求诱致型制度变迁方式,这就是中国制度变迁的三阶段假说.     

2000年理论经济学研究综述（上）

一、政治经济学和社会主义经济理论热点问题讨论 (一)关于深化对劳动和劳动价值论的认识及收入分配问题 中共中央"十五"计划建议提出:"在经济发展的同时,不断增加城乡居民收入,特别是低收入者的收入.深化收入分配制度改革,坚持效率优先、兼顾公平的原则,实行按劳分配、多种分配方式并存的制度,把按劳分配与按生产要素分配结合起来.鼓励资本、技术等生产要素参与收益分配.随着生产力的发展,科学技术工作和经营管理作为劳动的重要形式,在社会生产中起着越来越重要的作用.在新的历史条件下,要深化对劳动和劳动价值论的认识.建立健全收入分配的激励机制和约束机制."     

The contribution of weather variability to economic sectors

Every day, people make economic decisions based on the weather, affecting sales of companies in a wide range of economic sectors. In many cases, the impact of weather on sales is not constant from one season to the next. Yet, the existing research to estimate the influence of temperature on annual sales has not analysed the relationship per season, resulting in potential washout effects and underestimated weather impacts. Drawing upon French economic sectors for empirical evidence, we break down the analysis of the relationship between weather and monthly sales by season. Our methodology provides the cumulative annual contribution of weather to sales and allows deriving the maximum potential annual impact of adverse weather. With our results, analysts and risk managers can better understand the exposure to abnormal weather and consider the potential benefits of mitigating weather risk using the weather parameters we identify to structure bespoke index-based financial instruments.     

The emergence of extended metropolitan regions in ASEAN: towards the year 2000

"This article analyses the growth of large Extended Metropolitan Regions in the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the period since 1960. The analysis reveals two trends. First, urbanization levels in ASEAN countries are rapidly increasing. By the year 2000, almost 40 per cent of the population will be urban residents. Second, these accelerating processes are creating giant urban regions, called Extended Metropolitan Regions. Analysis of demographic patterns of the emergence of the major urban regions of ASEAN...reveals that these are major areas of economic growth, with industrialization, building development and leisure activities fuelling this process. However, this rapid growth is causing major problems of urban infrastructure provision, land use conflict and environmental deterioration."     

四川地区村镇住宅的节能经济性思考

针对四川地区灾后重建的契机,以及四川省节能住宅建设的相关政策规定,探讨在生态节能住宅修建前期,要注重节能住宅成本效益分析,保证节能住宅价值实现途径中的价值链条通畅,以及从传统民居中吸取节能住宅规划、构造、材料等方面的宝贵经验,因地制宜,防止伪生态住宅的产生,保证四川地区村镇住宅的节能经济性。     

Beyond national and technological styles of innovation diffusion: a dynamic perspective on cases from the energy and transport sectors

This article argues that styles of innovation diffusion dynamics depend on both national and niche-specific factors and that their respective influence changes during the innovation diffusion process. Based on a review of approaches, dealing on the one hand with differences in national innovation and technology systems and on the other with process of niche formation and development, a theoretical synthesis and pattern of analysis is suggested for interpreting and comparing empirical findings from two different technology examples. The analysis of combined heat and power (CHP) in Germany, UK and the Netherlands, and of electric vehicles in Germany, Sweden and France allows us to identify different styles of innovation diffusion dynamics. These styles are determined by the relative importance of national and niche-specific factors in different phases of the process of technological change. Support in lent to the hypothesis that a style which combines impulses for innovation at both structural and niche is particularly conducive to radical change.     

Change mechanisms in the diffusion of residential energy conservation practices: an empirical study

Four types of variables that affect the diffusion of home energy conservation measures are assessed. These variables are the information possessed by households, household attitudes, the economic and demographic characteristics of households, and the attributes of conservation measures. A causal model of behavior change is presented based on Fishbein's theory of reasoned action. The model is tested using panel data on 225 homeowners from Decatur, Illinois and two conservation practices: employing winter night-time thermostat setbacks and adding attic insulation. The results illustrate the importance of all four change mechanisms. Many nonadopters have erroneous information about the financial and other benefits of the two practices. The elderly and the poor are particularly ill-informed. Negative attitudes are closely related to discomfort (for night-time setback) and expense (for attic insulation). As expected, barriers and incentives differ across population subgroups and innovations.     

Notes on “The welfare cost of permanent inflation and optimal short-run economic policy”

Zusammenfassung M. Feldstein evaluiert Wohlfahrtsverluste infolge Inflation durch eine Erweiterung des Ansatzes von M. Friedman. Der von Friedman berechnete Wohlfahrtsverlust wächst bei vollständig antizipierter Inflation mit der Wachstumsrate des BIP. Soferne diese Wachstumsrate über dem Zinssatz für sichere Anlagen liegt, ist der abdiskontierte ewige Wohlfahrtsverlust unendlich. Eine Bekämpfung von Arbeitslosigkeit durch inflationäre Maßnahmen führt daher zu Wohlfahrtsverlusten. Gezeigt wird, daß, erstens, auch wenn diese Wohlfahrtsverluste unendlich sind, sie dennoch nicht groß sind; zweitens, daß auch die Wohlfahrtsverluste infolge endlich dauernder Arbeitslosigkeit unendlich sein könen; und drittens, daß das von Feldstein entwickelte Maß des Wohlfahrtsverlustes nur für den Fall der vollständig antizipierten Inflation gilt.     

灰色预测在产品价格预测中的应用

人类社会进入21世纪后,企业间面临更加激烈的市场竞争,价格则是这场竞争中决定企业竞争成败及目标能否实现的重要因素,企业要在竞争中立于不败之地,必须及时掌握市场产品价格动态,并对市场价格的变化趋势做出科学的预测,本借助灰色预测理论,阐述了市场产品价格预测的方法。