Dispute and morality in the perception of societal risks: extending the psychometric model

The psychometric paradigm has identified two classic dimensions, dread and unknown risk, structuring the perception of risks. We propose that disputed risk and morality are two additional dimensions that are relevant to describe the cognitive representation of societal risks. Disputed risk captures two aspects of a societal risk: first, that consensus about scientific evidence is low, and second, that the public debate about the risk issue is highly controversial. Morality refers to judgments of reprehensibility, capturing the fact that societal risks frequently involve violations of moral principles. In a survey study employing two samples, a household sample (N = 418) and a student sample (N = 88), participants evaluated 24 societal risks on 23 psychometric scales intended to assess the four constructs dread, unknown risk, disputed risk, and morality. Principal component analyses yielded three dimensions: a common dimension of dread and morality, a disputed risk dimension, and unknown risk. We also assessed judgments of overall riskiness for all risks. Morality and dread both proved to be strong and distinctive predictors of perceived overall riskiness in regression analyses; disputed risk and unknown risk, in contrast, do not play a substantial role as predictors. These findings were replicated across both samples. We conclude that disputed risk constitutes a novel and unique psychometric dimension; morality, on the other hand, coincides with dread in the cognitive representation of societal risks, while still showing a distinct and strong effect in the prediction of risk judgments.     

Talking aggressively about GMOs? Examining the effect of aggressive risk communication with communicator’s facial expression and gender

Abstract

Two experiments (N = 229 and N = 268) assessed the effect of aggressive risk communication about GMOs by a scientist on respondents’ perceptions of message quality and writer (the scientist communicator) likability. We also considered two factors from the communicator that may influence how individuals process aggressive messages – facial expression (study 1) and the gender (study 2). Both studies showed that aggressive communication has a negative effect on both perceived message quality and writer likability, which is explained by the level of negative expectancy violation individuals perceived. Moreover, study 1 showed that smiling appeared to be a negative influence on the outcomes and study 2 showed that gender did not influence how people perceive aggressive messages. The findings provided both scholarly and practical implications for science and risk communication.     

Anger mediates the effect of ostracism on risk-taking

The present research tested the effects of being ostracized on risk-taking behavior and how emotional responses to ostracism mediate these effects. In two experiments, undergraduates were either ostracized or included during an Internet ball-toss game (Cyberball). In Experiment 1 (N = 52), ostracism increased self-reported risk-taking inclinations, and the relation between ostracism and risk-taking was mediated by feelings of anger, but not control. In Experiment 2 (N = 72), ostracism increased risky driving during a driving video game. The effect of ostracism on risk-taking was again mediated by post-ostracism anger (but not control or ostracism-induced sadness). This research suggests that anger elicited by ostracism may increase risk-taking.     

Risk perceptions,moral attitudes,and anticipated guilt in US consumers’ climate change behavioral intentions

Various reports and research have documented the risks of global warming on humans and the non-human environment. A growing amount of media coverage positions the fight against global warming as a moral issue. However, additional research needs to be conducted regarding whether individuals’ risk perceptions are related to their moral attitudes and whether their moral attitudes toward global warming are associated with their behavioral intentions to alleviate global warming. Based on a cross-sectional survey (N = 572) and structural equation modeling analysis, the present investigation situated moral attitudes within a larger theoretical framework (i.e. the theory of planned behavior). Results found that the American public’s moral attitudes were predicted by subjective norms and risk to others and the environment, but not risk to themselves. Moral attitudes, in turn, predicted anticipated guilt. Collectively, moral attitudes, self-efficacy, anticipated guilt, and consideration of future consequences predicted one’s intentions to engage in behaviors to alleviate global warming. Both theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

Harm-advocating online content and subjective well-being: a cross-national study of new risks faced by youth

Harm-advocating online content includes pro-eating disorder, pro-self-harm, pro-suicide, and the positive portrayal of the deaths of real people (snuff or death sites). This material is often user-generated and easily accessible for an average online user, therefore offering a potential source of risk for many Internet users. This cross-sectional study examined the association between exposure to harm-advocating online content and users’ subjective well-being (SWB) among American (n = 1032) and Finnish (n = 555) young people aged 15–30. Exposure to different types of online harm-advocating content was prevalent in both countries. Lower SWB was associated with exposure to this material even when controlling for social networking site (SNS) activity and online and offline victimization. In the US sample, seeing death sites was not associated with SWB, but seeing other harm-advocating sites was. In both countries, those with high SNS activity were more likely to be exposed to online harm-advocating material. These results from two advanced information societies underline the importance of recognizing the existence of harmful online communities. These communities are grounded on social interaction that might involve risks for the well-being of adolescents and young adults.     

The perceiver’s social role and a risk’s causal structure as determinants of environmental risk evaluation

We present a dual-process risk perception model that integrates cognitive and emotional as well as consequentialist and deontological components by distinguishing between two modes of evaluative processing: (a) a consequentialist evaluation that focuses on potential consequences and (b) a deontological evaluation that focuses on moral values. Each of these two modes is assumed to trigger specific cognitive evaluations, specific emotions, and specific behavioral tendencies concerning a perceived risk. We conducted an experiment (N = 270) that tested whether the relative dominance of the two evaluative modes would depend on the causal structure of the environmental risk being evaluated and on the social role of the evaluator. Three types of causal structure were varied by providing scenario information: (a) anthropogenic risks that endanger only nature, (b) naturally caused risks with potential harmful consequences for humans, and (c) anthropogenic risks that may harm humans. Participants evaluated each scenario from the perspective of one of three social roles: mayor, expecting parent, and environmental activist. For each scenario, participants specified their focus and evaluated the event’s morality and perceived risk, the intensity of specific emotions, and their preferences for prospective behaviors. Results showed that the consequentialist evaluation was generally stronger than the deontological evaluation and was less affected by the experimental manipulations. The deontological evaluation was substantially affected by the risk’s causal structure. It was stronger for anthropogenic than for natural causation; risks caused by humans were associated with greater perceived moral blameworthiness, more intense morality-based emotions (e.g. outrage), and a stronger tendency to perform agent-related behaviors (e.g. aggression) than naturally occurring risks. The effect of the social role was less pronounced than that of the causal structure. Furthermore, the effect of an evaluative focus on behavior was fully mediated by emotions for deontological evaluations and partially mediated for consequentialist evaluations. The implications for environmental risk perception and communication are discussed.     

Are people emotionally aroused by hypothetical medical scenarios in experiments? An eye tracking study with pupil dilation

Background: Many studies on the communication of medical risks use hypothetical medical scenarios. The results of these scenarios should have sufficient predictive accuracy to be generalized to real life; thus, it is important to know whether hypothetical medical scenarios work and whether there is a relationship between risk level and emotional arousal. Methods: In an eye tracking experiment (N = 67), we investigated the influence of a simple hypothetical medical scenario on pupil dilation, a measure of emotional arousal. In this medical scenario, the participants were shown three risk levels (low, middle, and high) and had to estimate the probability that a hypothetical patient has colon cancer. They were also given a non-medical scenario that controlled for changes in illumination and cognitive workload. Therefore, we supposed that the difference in pupil diameter between the medical and the non-medical scenario was due to emotional arousal. Results: We found that our hypothetical medical scenario had a significant effect on pupil diameter. The mean values of the mean pupil diameter in the first fifth of the fixations were higher for all risk levels in the medical scenario than in the non-medical scenario. In a more detailed analysis of the difference in pupil diameters between the two scenarios, we detected that, for the high-risk level, the emotional difference values (between the medical and non-medical scenarios) differed significantly from zero. Furthermore, we found that higher risk levels lead to higher emotional arousal and higher probability estimates. Conclusions: Even simple hypothetical medical scenarios cause emotional arousal. Thus, hypothetical medical scenarios work, and the results of studies not using real patients can be generalized to real medical situations.     

Predictors of the perceived risk of climate change and preferred resource levels for climate change management programs

In a 2013 US national public opinion survey, data were collected from 1321 adult respondents for five psychometric variables – Dread, Scientists’ Level of Understanding, Public’s Level of Understanding, Number Affected, and Likelihood – for six threats (sea-level rise, increased flooding, and four others) associated with climate change. Respondents also rated perceived risk and indicated the resource level that they believed should be invested in management programs for each threat. Responses did not vary significantly across the six threats, so they were combined. The survey collected standard demographic information, as well as measuring climate change knowledge and environmental values (New Ecological Paradigm, NEP). Psychometric variables predicted perceived risk extremely well (R = .890, p < .001); all five psychometric variables were significant predictors. The results were generally consistent with previous research except that Scientists’ Level of Understanding was a positive, rather than negative, predictor of perceived risk. Jointly the demographic variables, knowledge, and environmental values significantly predicted perceived risk (R = .504, p < .001). Consistent with previous research, significant positive predictors were age, Democratic Party Identification, and NEP score; significant negative predictors were male gender and White ethnicity. When demographic variables, knowledge, and environmental values were added to psychometric ones, only the psychometric variables were statistically significant predictors. Perceived risk strongly predicted resource level (r = .772, p < .001). Adding demographic, knowledge, and environmental value variables to perceived risk as predictors of resource level did not appreciably increase overall predictive ability (r = .790, p < .001), although White ethnicity emerged as a significant negative predictor and religiosity, Democratic Party Identification, Liberal Political Ideology, and NEP score were significant positive predictors. The results demonstrate that risk perceptions of climate change and policy preferences among climate change management options are highly predictable as a function of demographic, knowledge, environmental values, and psychometric variables. Among these, psychometric variables were found to be the strongest predictors.     

Revisiting local responses to mass violence

This study examines the extent to which individual and sociological factors relate to worry about mass violence, which, in this study, is investigated as worry about the recurrence of school shootings. First, it is expected that socio-demographic and vicarious event-related factors explain individual variation in worry about mass violence. Second, responses to a localized event may associate with negative perceptions of community solidarity. In addition, individual responses regarding school shootings cannot easily be separated from other forms of insecurity, such as concerns about societal disintegration (e.g. eroding moral values) and popular discussions about crime (e.g. terrorism). Two independent postal surveys were collected from the small Finnish community of Jokela approximately 6 (N = 330) and 18 (N = 278) months after the rampage school shootings in the local high school. Independent samples t tests and linear regression are used as analyses methods. Results from regression analyses of the six-month post-event responses indicate that knowing a victim of a school shooting event relates to increased worry about mass violence. Decreased perceptions of social solidarity are also associating with increased worry after controlling for other individual and sociological factors. After 18 months, both knowing a victim and having school-aged children within one’s household explain even more of the variation in worry, while perceptions of solidarity is no longer a statistically significant predictor. In addition, at both 6 and 18 months, the higher the perceptions of risks to Finnish society from social change and from crime, the higher the worry about mass violence at schools. Surprisingly, the positive association between self-reported subjective anxiety and worry about mass violence does not reach a statistical significance.     

Exploring Comparative Ratings and Constituent Facets of Public Trust in Risk Regulatory Bodies and Related Stakeholder Groups

This paper reports on two comparative ranking tasks performed by a sample of the British citizens (N = 304). The first was designed to compare levels of relative trust vested in a sample of UK risk regulatory bodies and associated stakeholder groups. The second sought to elicit a ranking of a range of previously identified facets of social trust referenced to their desirability as attributes of a government funded risk regulatory body. The ranking tasks were embedded within a broader programme of research focused on “Evaluating public understandings of and trust in the Health and Safety Executive” (Pidgeon et al., 2003). It is argued that deriving rankings of multi‐faceted phenomena using the method of paired comparisons offers a more robust approach to rating social trust entities than the direct ranking techniques used in previous studies in this area. Results are discussed with reference to qualitative findings from the broader programme of work on public trust in HSE (Pidgeon et al., 2003) and the wider literature on public trust in risk regulation.     

Risk perceptions across the current political spectrum in Finland: a study of party members

Political party member perceptions of risk continue to attract a great deal of attention in current public discourse and media coverage, yet little research exists in terms of a comparative analysis of Finnish political parties’ views on the issue. Party members are in many ways a highly significant social group, one that exercises a great deal of decision-making power in modern civil societies. This article provides a novel and up-to-date look into the key areas of perceived risk held by the members of Finland’s political parties, in addition to a comparison of inter-party differences and similarities. The analysis is based on a unique survey data-set of the members of Finland’s six major political parties (N = 12,427). Included are the Finns Party, Centre Party, Left Alliance, Social Democratic Party, Green League and National Coalition Party. Together, these represent the political spectrum in Finland. Risk factors included primary categories dealing with various national, institutional, cultural and economic issues. Also included in the analysis was a look into whether length of party membership affects risk concern for the included issues. Findings showed that national and external risks were more of a concern for the Finns Party, while the Left and the Social Democrats considered economic issues a greater risk than did others. Furthermore, economic risk was most concerning to the left while external risks were generally viewed in line with the current centre-right administration. Some notable differences between old and new party members were also found. Findings emphasize the importance of understanding how political party members differ in their views of various societal risks while providing new points of comparison between those parties toward improved clarity of the national political landscape.     

A quantitative assessment of the insider/outsider dimension of the cultural theory of risk and place

This paper examines two hypotheses of risk perception: cultural theory's distinction between insiders and outsiders and the idea that risk perceptions and their determinants differ substantially from one place to the next for the same point‐source hazard. These hypotheses are juxtaposed in cross‐tabulations and logistic regression models with competing explanations of perceived risk in communities living with technological environmental hazards: sound management, benefits, fair facility siting and sociodemographics. The data come from a telephone survey of 455 residents in Swan Hills (n = 173), Fort Assiniboine (n = 171) and Kinuso (n = 111), Alberta, Canada who are all near a large‐scale hazardous waste treatment facility. Considerable support is found for the insider/outsider thesis in terms of the highest ranked information sources and trust to ensure safety. Place differences are clear where, for example, the least facility‐related concern is in Swan Hills (31%) 12 km away, the highest is in Kinuso (81%) 70 km away and moderately high concern is in Fort Assiniboine (62%) which is also 70 km away. This study highlights the importance of fair facility siting, the need to go beyond cultural bias analysis when studying the cultural theory of risk, and suggests further exploration of the notion of tailoring risk communication that is place specific, and emphasizes channels that may be defined as ‘outsider’ and ‘insider’.     

Do closed survey questions overestimate public perceptions of food risks?

In this paper, we show that the widely accepted methodology for the assessment of risk perception – Likert-type survey questions featuring a set of risks with fixed response alternatives measuring the extent of worry or concern – may overestimate food risk perception. Using a European representative sample survey (n = 26,961) that included an open-ended question asking about problems and risks with food and eating, followed by a battery of closed questions (CQs) assessing food risk perception, we find a similar ranking of perceived food risks across the two methods. Across Europe, the five priority concerns are chronic food-related illness; food origins and quality; acute food-related illness; chemical contamination; and adulteration of food. However, the discrepancies between mentioning a risk in the open-ended question and the expression of worry about risks in the CQ are substantial. Of those who did not mention a specific risk category in the open question, between 60 and 83% (depending on risk category) expressed worry in the CQ. This parallels previous research on the fear of crime, showing that survey responses lead to greatly inflated estimates of the public’s fear of crime than is evidenced by qualitative questioning. It is also consistent with evidence from research on cognitive aspects of survey methodology, suggesting that survey questions may frame the respondent’s thinking about an issue. We conclude with recommendations for the use of branched questions in the quantitative elicitation of public perceptions of risk.     

Institutionalization of risk and safety management at the local governmental level in Sweden

The starting point for this article is the need for empirical knowledge about organizational configuration for societal risk and safety management activities in a modern welfare society. In this paper, we use Sweden as an empirical frame to analyze the administrative management structure at the local governmental level. The analysis is based on statistical analysis of information from a web‐survey with administrative chief/head officials (n = 1283) with responsibilities for different municipal functions and sectors. The sample represented 25% of the Swedish municipalities (n = 290) and the response rate was approximately 60% (n = 766). The responses to two sets of questions (25 and 45 questions) are used for statistical analyses of management structures and task distribution within the municipal organizations. Principal component factor analyses with Varimax and Kaiser's Normalization was applied as a structure detection method. The results indicate a clear and uniform way to institutionalize societal risk and safety management at the local level. Furthermore, the management course of action is found to have different types of value characters. The implications that arise from the patterns identified in this study are considered to be of general relevance and topicality for research and practice in this area.     

The siting of a research centre on clean coal combustion and CO2 capture in Spain: Some notes on the relationship between trust and lack of public information

This paper aims to gain a better understanding of the role played by trust in the context of scarcity of public information, vis‐à‐vis the installation of a Centre for Investigation in Advanced Technologies (Centro de Investigación de Tecnologías Avanzadas, CITA) to be located in a coal‐rich region of Spain. Data from semi‐structured interviews (n = 15), a questionnaire survey (n = 400) and focus group sessions (2) are drawn together to reveal how the local community perceives the proposed CITA scheme, and how this relates to the level of trust placed in the project promoters. Results illustrate how a lay community gives meaning to an unknown technological project, trying to place it within its appropriate economic, social and political context, and relating it to prior knowledge and experiences. Results also show that, in contrast to certain risk communication theories, the public is able to place trust in a technological activity and their promoters despite a general lack of knowledge on either.     

Explaining Americans’ responses to dread epidemics: an illustration with Ebola in late 2014

Despite several surveys of Americans’ responses to Ebola as people were treated or died in the US in the late fall of 2014, little was published on factors that might affect these responses, despite their value for informing future management and communication regarding outbreaks of novel infectious diseases. This explanatory aim was the goal of a national quota online sample of Americans (n = 815) who reported their beliefs and attitudes about Ebola in early December, three weeks after the second US death. Responses were shaped particularly by risk judgments and concern, but also by available Ebola information (from news attention or residence in a state with Ebola experience), political cues (partisanship, ideology), and demographics. Judgments of personal risk and US/global risk were shaped by largely different factors; for example, knowledge of Ebola exposure routes exhibited negative and positive signs, respectively. News attention was associated with both positive (e.g. trust in US Centers for Disease Control & Prevention [CDC]; knowledge) and negative (e.g. US/global risk perception; concern about a US outbreak and family member infection) reactions. Findings suggest challenges for future health communication.     

Expert opinion and probabilistic volcanic risk assessment

We present data from an international survey of scientists working at volcanic observatories concerning eruption likelihoods. The scientists were asked a range of questions using different types of phrasing. The data suggest that the phrasing of questions affects the ways in which probabilities are estimated. In total, 71% of respondents (N = 70) exhibited some form of inconsistency in their answers between and/or within different question formats. The data also allow for an analysis of the use of scaling in probabilistic assessment, and the use of quantitative versus verbal risk measurements. However, some respondents were uncomfortable with providing any numerical probability estimate, perhaps suggesting that they considered the uncertainty too high for meaningful judgements to be made.     

The role of negative associations and trust in risk perception of new hydrogen systems

In this study the moderating role of trust and negative affective associations on the inverse relationship between risk and benefit judgements is investigated. A survey (N = 406) was held in the Netherlands on the public perception of new hydrogen systems, during the time that a demonstration project with hydrogen buses was being undertaken. The data of the survey show that for the group of respondents with a negative evaluation of trust in actors involved, an inverse relationship between risk and benefit judgements can be observed. Furthermore, for the group of respondents that had elicited negative affective spontaneous associations with hydrogen in general, the inverse relationship was also found. The inverse relationship between risk and benefit judgements was not observed in the group not making these spontaneous associations. The strongest negative correlation between risk and benefit judgements was found for those who had a negative evaluation of trust and had elicited negative affective spontaneous associations. In all cases the general affective evaluation of hydrogen systems was the mediating factor in this inverse relationship between risk and benefit judgements. These findings provide evidence for the moderating role of trust and negative affective associations on the observed inverse relationship between perceived benefit and perceived risk.     

Risk as perceived by the German public: pervasive risks and “switching” risks

In 2001, a major project on the perception and evaluation of risks in southern Germany was conducted consisting of survey data as well as of semi‐structured interviews. With reference to the psychometric paradigm, this article analyzes public risk perception, pointing out the perceived risk semantic for nuclear energy, GM‐food, mad cow disease (BSE), crime, global climate change, mobile telephony and its radiation risks. These hazards reveal different patterns of risk perception and different levels of risk acceptability. Secondly, a comparison of qualitative and quantitative findings will be conducted: qualitative analyses indicate that the results of quantitative rating scales on the perception, evaluation and acceptance of technical and environmental hazards might be misleading since the public's focus on risks as elicited by open association stimuli relies much more on ‘everyday‐life’ and ‘pervasive’ risks than for instance on hazards emerging from new technologies. The relevance of technological risks tends to be dependent on the context: If explicitly mentioned in newscasts, in debates or listed in questionnaires memories, fears or other immediate responses become activated, yet they may be forgotten a short time later. We have called this phenomenon “switching effect” and the respective risks “switching risks”. In standardized opinion polls such ‘switching effects’ may evoke firm judgments, even if the importance in the interviewee's mental representation seems marginal.