Financial systemic risk: Taxation or regulation?

This paper describes financial systemic risk as a pollution issue. Free riding leads to excess risk production. This problem may be solved, at least partially, either by financial regulation or by taxation. From a normative viewpoint, taxation is superior in many respects. However, reality shows that financial regulation is adopted more frequently. This paper makes a positive, politico-economic argument. If the majority chooses regulation, the level is likely to be too harsh. If it chooses taxation, then the level is likely to be too low. Due to regressive effects, a tax on financial transactions receives low support from a majority of low polluting portfolio owners. The same kind of majority may strategically choose regulation in order to burden the minority with a larger share of the cost of reducing systemic risk.     

Asset pricing anomalies: Liquidity risk hedgers or liquidity risk spreaders?

We capture two distinct investing preferences – hedging against aggregate liquidity risk or betting on it – in the cross-section of stock returns. A three-factor model underpinned by exposures to changes in market liquidity, isolating two alternating patterns, is developed. Our results can be summarized in the following ways: one, the improved performance of recent asset-pricing models is driven by factors that mimic liquidity risk hedging and are linked to cross-sectional mispricing. Two, our model outperforms competing models in explaining time-series return variation across market states. Three, our parsimonious model enables an understanding of diverging return premia in the cross-section. Four, the estimated risk premiums in our model correspond to theoretical, economic, and statistical restrictions holistically across varied and complex anomaly structures. In this respect, the performance of the proposed model is even better than the risk premiums on factors in the model that have the largest cross-sectional r-squared values.     

Systemic risk measures: The simpler the better?

This paper estimates and compares two groups of high-frequency market-based systemic risk measures using European and US interbank rates, stock prices and credit derivatives data from 2004 to 2009. Measures belonging to the macro group gauge the overall tension in the financial sector and micro group measures rely on individual institution information to extract joint distress. We rank the measures using three criteria: (i) Granger causality tests, (ii) Gonzalo and Granger metric, and (iii) correlation with an index of systemic events and policy actions. We find that the best systemic measure in the macro group is the first principal component of a portfolio of Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads whereas the best measure in the micro group is the multivariate densities computed from CDS spreads. These results suggest that the measures based on CDSs outperform measures based on interbank rates or stock market prices.     

Momentum in Australian style portfolios: risk or inefficiency?

Momentum strategies have been reported to be successful across a range of different markets and asset classes. Three possible explanations for momentum have been hypothesised: risk, return continuation and excessive co‐movement of stock returns compared with dividends. Lewellen (2002) adds to this literature by providing evidence of strong momentum returns in style portfolios that can be explained by negative cross‐serial correlation, a result which supports the excess co‐movement hypothesis. We report robust evidence of style momentum in the Australian market and use the Jegadeesh and Titman (1995) return decomposition to show that this momentum strategy is predominately explained by positive autocorrelation. Our results support the return continuation hypothesis and confirm Chen and Hong's (2002) assertion that Lewellen's (2002) explanation of style momentum returns does not stand up out‐of‐sample.     

White matter hyperintensities: age appropriate or risk indicator?

White matter hypertensity (WMH) is a term frequently seen in the MRI reports of insurance applicants. Its significance is often uncertain. There are different patterns and extent of WMH of variable clinical significance can be identified. Pathological correlates are varied with most pointing toward WMH as a reflection of small vessel ischemic burden. The predominant clinical associations are with stroke, cognitive impairment, dementia, general disability and death. This review examines the relationship of white matter hyperintensities to client morbidity, disability and mortality from an insurance medicine perspective.     

Changes to mutual fund risk: Intentional or mean reverting?

An empirical issue is whether a mutual fund’s change in intertemporal risk is intentional or arises from risk mean reversion. Our methodology uses actual fund trades to identify funds that actively change risk. Funds that are statistically identified as trading to change return variance or tracking error variance do not exhibit risk mean reversion. Mostly, funds trade to reduce risk and, in particular, tracking error variance. This is most evident for funds that previously attained a low tracking error variance. We find no evidence of a relation between past performance and intended changes to return variance or tracking error variance.     

The expectations hypothesis: New hope or illusory support?

Recent studies of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure (EHTS) find evidence in favor of the EHTS using post 1980s US data. This has been attributed to the relative macro stability of this period and greater market efficiency. Using a panel of forecasts for 3-month interest rates for ten countries we test separately for EHTS and rational expectations. Assuming rational expectations holds we find support for the EHTS is illusory due to an off-setting time-varying term premia and non-rational expectations. Previous forecast-based studies suggest biased expectations tend to reinforce the effect of a time varying term premium. This change can be understood in the context of Fama’s (2006) argument that markets tend to underestimate future spot rates during periods of long-run increases and overestimate during declines.     

The leadership team: complementary strengths or conflicting agendas?

Senior leadership teams whose members play complementary roles have been chronicled as far back as Homer's account of the Trojan War: Although King Agamemnon commanded the Greek army, Achilles, Odysseus, and Nestor each played a distinct role in defeating Troy. Today, complementary-leadership structures are common and, in some cases, even institutionalized. Think of a CEO concerned mainly with external issues and a COO who focuses internally. The authors describe four kinds of complementarity: task, expertise, cognitive, and role. The two top executives at the software company Adobe Systems, for example, represent the second kind. As CEO, Bruce Chizen draws on his sales and marketing knowledge, while COO Shantanu Narayen adds his engineering and product development expertise. Roberto Goizueta, formerly the CEO of Coca-Cola, and Douglas Ivester, his COO (who later became CEO), were famous examples of the fourth type: Goizueta, the diplomat, maintained good relations with external stakeholders; Ivester, the warrior, drove the company to defeat the competition. Bringing together two or more people with complementary strengths can compensate for the natural limitations of each. But with the benefits comes the risk of confusion, disagreement about priorities, and turf battles. Leadership succession also presents substantial challenges, especially when a COO or president who has worked in a complementary fashion with the CEO moves into the top role. An organization's board of directors and CEO can manage the risks by fostering a shared vision, common incentives, communication, and trust. They can also ensure smooth succession processes in various ways, such as brokering a gradual transfer of responsibilities or allowing the CEO and the COO to share duties as long as they maintain the logic of complementarity.     

Are return seasonalities due to risk or mispricing?

Stocks tend to earn high or low returns relative to other stocks every year in the same month (Heston and Sadka, 2008). We show these seasonalities are balanced out by seasonal reversals: a stock that has a high expected return relative to other stocks in one month has a low expected return relative to other stocks in the other months. The seasonalities and seasonal reversals add up to zero over the calendar year, which is consistent with seasonalities being driven by temporary mispricing. Seasonal reversals are economically large and statistically highly significant, and they resemble, but are distinct from, long-term reversals.     

The logical status of risk – to burnish or to dull

Presented here is an elaboration of the fundamental features of the meaning of risk. It distinguishes between analytic approaches grounded in realism and postmodern (including constructionist) epistemologies and the presuppositions of each. It argues that attempts to fuse the ontology of risk with epistemological considerations into a common definition is both internally contradictory and a weak foundation for a theoretically justified definition of risk. In place of a fused definition of risk, it re‐affirms a definition risk as a state of the world, independent of percipient actors.     

The Term Structure of Interest Rates: Bounded or Falling?

This short paper resolves an apparent contradiction betweenFeldman's (1989) and Riedel's (2000) equilibrium models of theterm structure of interest rates under incomplete information.Feldman (1989) showed that in an incomplete information versionof Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985), where the stochastic productivityfactors are unobservable, equilibrium term structures are ‘interior’and bounded. Interestingly, Riedel (2000) showed that an incompleteinformation version of Lucas (1978), with an unobservable constantgrowth rate, induces a ‘corner’ unbounded equilibriumterm structure: it decreases to negative infinity. This paperdefines constant and stochastic asymptotic moments, clarifiesthe apparent conflict between Feldman's and Riedel's equilibria,and discusses implications. Because productivity and growthrates are not directly observable in the real world, the questionwe answer is of particular relevance. JEL Classification codes:E43, G12, D92, D80, D51.     

The crisis alpha of managed futures: Myth or reality?

We examine whether commodity trading advisors (CTAs), or managed futures, provide investors with diversification benefits in times of crises, along with looking into the source of such a “crisis alpha”. We developed a systematic crisis identification methodology that takes into account both, the magnitude and the speed of price deterioration and apply it to a unique dataset, that includes realized returns and sector positions of CTAs on a daily basis. We find CTAs do acquire positive gains in most sectors during crises, which originate from two sources: Firstly, their diversification across multiple futures markets, i.e. positive yields in gaining markets can counterbalance low performance in the crisis market. Secondly, the fast reduction in CTAs' exposure to crisis markets (in less than 15 days for composite indices) allows them to stabilize their performance. Both factors together, quickly cutting losses in crisis sectors while staying profitable in the other ones, allow CTAs to generate crisis alpha.     

The zero-lower bound on interest rates: Myth or reality?

Unconventional monetary policy tools are based on the belief that there exists a zero-lower bound on interest rates. This paper argues, based on economic theory and the empirical evidence, that this belief is a myth and not a reality. It is shown that a negative default-free spot rate of interest is consistent with an arbitrage-free term structure evolution in a competitive and nearly frictionless market. It is not frictionless to the extent that consumers, firms, non-bank financial institutions, and banks have some realistic constraints imposed on their trading activities.     

The futures of genetically-modified foods: Global threat or panacea?

Genetically-modified foods represent a potential solution of the world food crises, but they are also feared as potential dangers for human health, environment and biodiversity. Considering the history of genetically-modified foods and their present situation, this study develops and validates three complex scenarios regarding the future evolution of genetically-modified foods. The plausibility of these scenarios is tested using five food experts, as well as two demographically-representative groups of French and U.K. respondents. The present situation and potential evolution of genetically-modified foodsis also analyzed using the Innovation Diffusion Theory, as well as a Value-based Perspective.     

The Tourinho model: neglected nugget or a receding relic?

This article evaluates Tourinho's (1979b Tourinho, O. A.F. 1979b. “The valuation of reserves of natural resources: an option pricing approach”. Berkeley: University of California. PhD thesis [Google Scholar]) work as one of the earliest contributors to the real options literature. His model pioneered the application of risk neutrality to uncertain investments, but his originality of introducing an option-holding cost albeit to overcome the extraction paradox is rarely imitated. We claim that the combination of a convenience yield and an option-holding cost produces a more satisfying representation. Moreover, variations in the holding cost give rise to a host of investment decisions ranging from the standard real option solution for a zero-holding cost to a net present value solution for an infinite-holding cost. Not only does the holding cost mediate between these two poles, but it provides the option seller (usually a landowner or a government) with a policy instrument for influencing the extraction timing and thus the extraction profit of the option buyer. We derive the holding cost that optimizes the landowner's combined value of the option premium, holding costs and eventual royalties.     

Sinus bradycardia: normal phenomenon or risk factor? Evaluation based on recent evidence

Although sinus bradycardia is a common abnormality seen in medical reports, the proper evaluation of sinus bradycardia is poorly understood by physicians. Recent data from heart rate epidemiologic and cohort studies has emerged regarding the risk stratification of sinus bradycardia, which may help insurers better underwrite this abnormality. In this review, an operational age-related heart rate reference based on recent advances is provided along with a suggested approach to the risk stratification and assessment of prognosis for inappropriate sinus bradycardia.     

Has exchange risk depressed international trade? The impact of third-country exchange risk

This paper argues that the effect of exchange risk on bilateral and aggregate trade flows should be analyzed by including the impact of third-country exchange risk factors in addition to direct bilateral or multilateral risk. After a theoretical examination of these effects, US bilateral export flow to its six largest trading partners are analyzed empirically. I find individuality and jointly significant third-country risk effects in most cases. In contrast to some recent bilateral efforts, I find a steadily growing negative impact on trade flows from exchange risk during floating. And in contrast to recent aggregate trade flow studies, I conclude that there was no temporary decline in exchange risk during the late 1970s.     

Re-examining the risk–return relationship in Europe: Linear or non-linear trade-off?

This paper analyzes the risk–return trade-off in Europe using recent data from 11 European stock markets. After relaxing the linear assumptions in the risk–return relationship by introducing a new approach that considers the current state of the market, we obtain significant evidence for a positive risk–return trade-off for low volatility states. However, this finding is reduced or even non-significant during periods of high volatility. Maintaining the linear assumption over the risk–return trade-off leads to non-significant estimations for all cases. These results are robust across countries despite the conditional volatility model used. These results also demonstrate that the inconclusive results in previous studies may be due to strong linear assumptions when modeling the risk–return trade-off. This previous research fails to uncover the global behavior of the relationship between return and risk.     

Did TARP reduce or increase systemic risk? The effects of government aid on financial system stability

Theory suggests that government aid to banks may either reduce or increase systemic risk. We are the first to address this issue empirically, analyzing the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). Analysis suggests that TARP significantly reduced contributions to systemic risk, particularly for larger and safer banks, and those in better local economies. This occurred primarily through a capital cushion channel that reduced market leverage by increasing the value of common equity. Results are robust to endogeneity and selection bias checks. Findings yield policy conclusions about whether to aid banks, the best targets for future assistance, and short-term versus long-term effects.