The Valuation of Insurance under Uncertainty: Does Information about Probability Matter?

In a laboratory experiment we test the hypothesis that consumers' valuation of insurance is sensitive to the amount of information available on the probability of a potential loss. In order to test this hypothesis we simulate a market in which we elicit individuals' willingness to pay to insure against a loss characterised either by known or else vague probabilities. We use two distinct treatments by providing subjects with different information over the vague probabilities of loss. In general we find that uncertainty about probabilities has a weak impact on consumers' valuation of insurance. However, additional information about probabilities tends to marginally increase the price individuals are willing to pay to insure themselves. Implications for the insurance market are derived.     

The effect of early resolution of uncertainty on the valuation of assets: A dichotomy into market and non-market information

We reconsider how the temporal resolution of uncertainty about the future payoffs from capital assets affects the initial valuation of these assets. Our results regarding valuation indicate that, in an intertemporal CAPM framework, the early resolution of market uncertainty leads to an increase in the value of the market portfolio. The values of individual assets change in direct proportion to their betas. We reconcile the differing conclusions of Ross (1989) and Epstein and Turnbull (1980) regarding the early resolution of what they term idiosyncratic and asset specific information respectively.     

Management accounting systems change and departmental performance: the influence of managerial information and task uncertainty

Despite the proliferation of new management accounting techniques amidst pressures of organizational and global change, the issue of changes in firm-wide management accounting and control systems (MACSs) has largely been ignored in the research literature. This study explores the indirect effect of MACSs change on departmental performance for a cross-sectional sample of 232 medium-sized Singaporean firms. It is hypothesized that MACSs change affects performance but not directly. Instead, this relationship is mediated by managerial-relevant information (MRI) that is impacted by MACSs change, which, in turn, enhances performance. Task uncertainty is expected to moderate the intervening linkages; specifically, the latter are anticipated to strengthen under conditions of more task variability and task difficulty and, thus, augment the indirect effect of MACSs change on performance. The results offer support for the positive indirect effect of improving departmental performance from more MRI, triggered by MACSs change. Although not large, the indirect effect is strengthened when task variability and task difficulty are high. Overall, the findings are consistent with the stated purposes of management accounting that are embedded in normative definitions, and which are relied upon to motivate the framework for analysis.     

Economic uncertainty: Mispricing and ambiguity premium

We uncover two channels of effect in the financial market when investors face macroeconomic uncertainty. Conditional on a common mispricing index, we find that economic uncertainty exposure (EUE) induces disagreement, which amplifies mispricing. The highest EUE quintile produces an annualised mispricing alpha of 9.96%, more than double the unconditional mispricing effect. An ambiguity premium of 3.84% alpha is documented in the “non-mispricing” quintile. The EUE-induced mispricing effect is different from the existing limits of arbitrage explanations. The ambiguity premium is predictably observed during the unfolding of shocks of COVID-19 to the market.     

Welfare effects of information and rationality in portfolio decisions under parameter uncertainty

We analyse and quantify, in a financial market with parameter uncertainty and for a Constant Relative Risk Aversion investor, the utility effects of two different boundedly rational (i.e. sub-optimal) investment strategies (namely, myopic and unconditional strategies) and compare them with each other and with the utility effect of full information. We show that effects are mainly caused by full information and predictability, being the effect of learning marginal. We also investigate the saver's decision regarding whether to manage her/his portfolio personally (DIY investor) or hire, against the payment of a management fee, a professional investor and find that delegation is mainly motivated by the belief that professional advisors are, depending on investment horizon and risk aversion, either better informed (‘insiders’) or more capable of gathering and processing information, rather than possessing the ability to learn from financial data. In particular, for very short investment horizons, delegation is primarily, if not exclusively, motivated by the beliefs that professional investors are better informed.     

Nominal uncertainty,real uncertainty and macroeconomic performance in a time-varying asymmetric framework: Implications for monetary policy

This study examines the dynamic causal links and volatility spillovers of inflation, output growth and their uncertainties in four South Asian countries, namely, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka by utilizing asymmetric GARCH family models. Our empirical evidence supports a number of important conclusions. There is an overwhelming support for Friedman-Ball hypothesis of positive inflation-uncertainty trade-off for all countries excluding India and Sri Lanka. The Cukierman-Meltzer’s idea that inflation uncertainty generates inflation, hold for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka only and the Holland’s hypothesis of negative influence of inflation uncertainty on level inflation is supported by India only. The positive influence of output uncertainty on inflation (Devereux (1989) hypothesis) is supported by all countries excluding Bangladesh while nominal uncertainty (real uncertainty) has negative (positive) effect on output growth in Pakistan (Bangladesh). Output growth is reducing real uncertainty in all countries excluding Sri Lanka and nominal uncertainty in Pakistan only. There is significant negative relationship between inflation and output growth for Pakistan only while real uncertainty is positively (negatively) related with nominal uncertainty in India (Bangladesh). The estimated results are almost robust with the simultaneous estimation procedure for testing the main hypotheses. In general, there is asymmetric effect and persistence of the GARCH parameters for all countries. The study suggests that the concerned central banks should pay more attention to the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty and should focus their monetary policy strategy on stabilizing both output growth and inflation.     

Types of investor uncertainty and the cost of equity capital

We jointly test the effects of two types of investor uncertainty, one related to future firm performance and unrelated to accruals (cash flow uncertainty) and one directly related to accrual estimation errors (accounting quality uncertainty). Distinct from prior studies, our uncertainty estimates are based on a matched‐firm design that minimizes the mechanical relationship between the two uncertainty variables. We find a strong negative relationship between cash flow uncertainty and multiple estimates of the cost of equity capital. With respect to accounting quality uncertainty, we find a strong positive association with both expected stock returns and implied costs of equity, but only in settings that control for cash flow uncertainty. Collectively, our results suggest the need to consider different types of investor uncertainty when examining how investor uncertainty affects the cost of equity capital.     

Political uncertainty and firms' information environment: Evidence from China

How political uncertainty affects the supply of value relevant information about a firm is an important but unresolved question. Using an emerging market setting where political leaders are expected to exert significant influence on economic activities, we examine the effect of political uncertainty caused by turnovers of local government leaders on a firm’s information environment. We find that during periods of political uncertainty, the total amount of idiosyncratic information about a firm that is available to the market is reduced. The adverse effect on information supply is manifest in firms that are more politically dependent and stronger when uncertainty is more severe. Further, we provide evidence suggesting that firms react to political uncertainty by reducing the amount and the quality of information provided to investors. We find that information intermediaries such as financial analysts and the media have a moderating effect on the information environment as they increase the production of information during periods of political uncertainty. However, these intermediaries do not negate the net loss of information.     

Individualization revisited: global family developments,uncertainty and risk

Abstract

As part of our special issue appreciating the work of Ulrich Beck, this article introduces and rearticulates his concept of individualization for an audience beyond those engaged with sociological theory. It is argued to be the ‘forgotten half’ of Beck’s approach that is in particular need of both restatement and reaffirmation of its contemporary relevance. It does so by firstly contextualizing and explaining its comparatively limited impact before elaborating the stages of the individualizing process and how his key notion of ‘disembedding without re-embedding’ is distinct from traditional sociological understanding of the individualizing dynamic within modernity. Its relevance and utility is then indicated through surveying developments in family and affective relations in China and America, two of Beck’s ideal types of individualization pattern. Both demonstrate a pattern of radical ‘disembedding’, and a conscious and partial ‘re-embedding’ in the case of the ‘neo-traditional’ American middle-class family. Following this, the article suggests a stronger potential connection between the risk and individualization dimensions of his approach than was drawn out by Beck himself, through focusing upon the uncertainty created by disembedding. The uncertainty that follows from individualization suggests precautionary retreat into security and the construction of risk as a means of embodying and managing uncertainty. Recognition of this social dynamic is potentially more useful in understanding risk than the better-known but very general theory of reflexive modernization that is the other half of Beck’s contribution to risk research.     

Corporate decision making in the presence of political uncertainty: The case of corporate cash holdings

Using a quarterly panel of U.S. corporations over the period 1985–2014, we show that corporate managers respond to political uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty shocks in different ways. We proxy for political uncertainty using the Partisan Conflict Index and employ a prevalent empirical macroeconomic methodology to construct structural shocks that are orthogonal to shocks captured by the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. Following a political uncertainty shock, corporations increase cash but do not adjust investment. Alternatively, following an economic policy uncertainty shock, firms appear to draw on cash and reduce capital spending to increase research and development spending.     

Price uncertainty and vertical integration: an examination of petrochemical firms

The petrochemical industry employs assets subject to temporal and site specificity. The OPEC oil price shocks of the 1970s made it difficult to write contracts covering business dealings in the industry. I use this production and economic setting as a natural experiment to test transaction cost theory. In support of the theory, I find that input price uncertainty in the 1970s positively affected the extent of vertical integration by firms into input stages. Moreover, the positive reaction of vertical integration to price uncertainty mainly occurs in transactions subject to asset specificity. I also examine price controls and market power as alternative explanations for vertical integration in the industry, but fail to find support for these hypotheses.     

The effect of economic policy uncertainty on investor information asymmetry and management disclosures

Investor uncertainty about firm value drives investors’ information collection and trading activities, as well as managers’ disclosure choices. This study examines an important source of uncertainty that likely cannot be influenced by most managers and investors: uncertainty about government economic policy. We find that this uncertainty is associated with increased bid-ask spreads and decreased stock price reactions to earnings surprises. Managers respond to this uncertainty by increasing their voluntary disclosures, but these disclosures only partly mitigate the bid-ask spread increase. We conclude that government economic policy uncertainty is an important component of firms’ information environments and managers’ voluntary disclosure decisions.     

Economic policy uncertainty,agency problem,and funding structure: Evidence from U.S. banking industry

We empirically examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on banks’ funding structure (FUD). Using an extensive dataset of U.S. bank holding companies, we find that high policy uncertainty strengthens banks’ FUD. For banks with a pre-existing low FUD, an increase in EPU raises FUD. However, for banks with a pre-existing high FUD, the relationship between EPU and FUD becomes negative and economically significant. Considering the lack of relevant studies, our paper contributes to the literature and provides implications for policymakers and practitioners in the banking industry.     

Economic policy uncertainty,institutional environments,and corporate cash holdings

We investigate the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on corporate cash holdings using a large sample of international firms. EPU intensifies concerns of investors on managerial self-dealing and political extraction. Consequently, the potential cost of cash holdings (i.e., expropriation) outweighs its benefit (i.e., precautionary motives), and the optimal amount of cash holdings decreases. We find supportive evidence that firms hold less cash when EPU is high. We further show that the market discounts excess cash holdings under high policy uncertainty, but this negative effect is mitigated by stronger investor protection, better freedom of press, and better government quality.     

Mandatory information disclosure and innovation: Evidence from the disclosure of operational information

We use a quasi-natural experiment wherein the Shanghai Stock Exchange requires listed companies in certain industries to disclose operational information and a staggered difference-in-differences model to examine the impact of mandatory information disclosure on corporate innovation. We find that companies subject to mandatory operational information disclosure show significantly increased innovation. This effect is pronounced for companies classified as non-state-owned enterprises, facing severe financing constraints and a high degree of shareholder tunneling behavior and in competitive and high-tech industries. Although mandatory operational information disclosure reduces their competitive advantage, companies appear to compensate by increasing innovation. Our study highlights the positive impact of mandatory operational information disclosure, indicating that it contributes to the high-quality development of both capital markets and companies.     

Wholesale funding and bank stability: The impact of economic policy uncertainty

The primary aim of this paper is to examine the conditioning effects of economic policy uncertainty on the relationship between wholesale funding and bank stability. Based on a sample of 1829 commercial banks in 27 countries over the period 2005–2020, we provide evidence of a nonlinear relationship between wholesale funding and bank stability. Specifically, a small share of nondeposit funding to total deposit and short-term funding (below 22.3%) offers some risk reduction, but a substantial mixing of nondeposit and deposit funding increases bank fragility. Moreover, the adverse effects of excessive wholesale funding on bank stability are strengthened during periods of high policy uncertainty. Nevertheless, banks in advanced countries, large banks, and high-quality banks with better asset quality are less affected by the detrimental impact of excessive wholesale funding on bank stability when during periods of increased policy uncertainty.     

Embodied uncertainty: living with complexity and natural hazards

In this paper, we examine the concept of embodied uncertainty by exploring multiple dimensions of uncertainty in the context of risks associated with extreme natural hazards. We highlight a need for greater recognition, particularly by disaster management and response agencies, of uncertainty as a subjective experience for those living at risk. Embodied uncertainty is distinguished from objective uncertainty by the nature of its internalisation at the individual level, where it is subjective, felt and directly experienced. This approach provides a conceptual pathway that sharpens knowledge of the processes that shape how individuals and communities interpret and contextualise risk. The ways in which individual characteristics, social identities and lived experiences shape interpretations of risk are explored by considering embodied uncertainty in four contexts: social identities and trauma, the co-production of knowledge, institutional structures and policy and long-term lived experiences. We conclude by outlining the opportunities that this approach presents, and provide recommendations for further research on how the concept of embodied uncertainty can aid decision-making and the management of risks in the context of extreme natural hazards.     

Stock market uncertainty and economic fundamentals: an entropy-based approach

This study investigates the effects of stock market uncertainty on economic fundamentals, represented by economic activities and systemic risk, in China. To capture the uncertainty in the Chinese stock market precisely, we use the entropy measure through symbolic time-series analysis. The empirical findings reveal strong spillover effects from stock market uncertainty to economic fundamentals. Specifically, an uncertainty shock generates (i) a short-term decline in industrial production, (ii) a rapid drop and rebound in the composite leading indicator, and (iii) an increase in systemic risk. To understand these findings, we suggest and validate the transmission channel through changes in consumption and investment.     

Using accounting-based and loan-related information to estimate the cure probability of a defaulted company

The cure of a defaulted company has important implications for the estimation of the loss given default. In this study, we estimate the probability of a defaulted company being cured using data on a large international sample of defaulted companies. More specifically, we examine whether historic accounting information on a defaulted company and loan-related information are associated with that company's probability of being cured. The main finding of our analysis is that both accounting-based and loan-related independent variables increase the validity of cure prediction models.