Risk and crisis communication narratives in response to rapidly emerging diseases

The uncertainty inherent in crises can create a narrative space that is often filled by multiple interpretations about both what is happening and what steps should be taken to resolve the crisis. As more information becomes known, these competing crisis narratives gradually merge into a dominant narrative about the crisis, lessons learned from it, and recommendations for the future. This case study examines the swine industry’s response to the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) outbreak. The virus spread rapidly throughout the industry and, in a matter of months, had killed approximately 10% of the U.S. swine population. This analysis examines the crisis communication that ensued during that time. More specifically, 13 specialists representing the National Pork Board, American Association of Swine Veterinarians, veterinarians highly active in treating PEDv, university extension agents, and academic researchers were interviewed for this study. A narrative analysis of the interview content revealed that communication efforts made by swine industry leaders successfully shifted the PEDv story from that of competing narratives to a dominant narrative that helped resolve the crisis efficiently. This success is attributed, in part, to effective use of all available industry resources for both conducting research and sharing information rapidly through pre-established communication networks and widely read resources. Results of this narrative analysis reveal a key recommendation that maybe generalizable to similar crisis events. That is, an effective crisis narrative should focus not only on what protective actions to take, but also on a clear explanation regarding the nature of the crisis. Moreover, such explanations must be translated intelligibly to diverse non-scientific publics and provide a compelling rationale for why the recommended actions are vital.     

A comparative study of stakeholder risk perception and risk communication in Europe: a bovine spongiform encephalopathy case study

The ‘Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathy (TSE) Roadmap’ was published by the European Commission on 15 July 2005. The TSE Roadmap proposes the relaxation of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) measures in the short, medium and long term. According to the Roadmap, any relaxation of BSE measures following the scientific assessment should be initiated by an open discussion with all stakeholders and supported by a strong communication strategy. This paper discusses the risk perception, risk communication and risk management of TSEs in Europe, exemplified by the TSE Roadmap. The main conclusion is that in general, BSE is no longer a ‘hot’ topic for stakeholders, but there are slight differences between countries with respect to specific measures. Another important conclusion is that the TSE Roadmap is a very effective tool for risk communication with stakeholders.     

Risk perception of mobile communication: a mental models approach

Some lay people confronted with a new base station project fear serious health consequences from the high‐frequency radiation, while experts consider exposure under the current international standards as unproblematic. These conflictive estimations may be attributed to the different mental models of lay people and experts. Less is known about lay people’s knowledge in regard to mobile communication and their intuitive understanding of the associated health risks. An adaptation of the ‘Mental Models Approach’ was used to reveal lay people’s beliefs about mobile communication and to learn more about lay people’s information requirements, potential knowledge gaps, and misconceptions. Through the means of open interviews with Swiss experts (N = 16), lay people (N = 16), and base station opponents (N = 15), different mental models were constructed and evaluated. Comparisons between the expert and the lay groups showed several qualitative differences in all identified knowledge domains. Knowledge gaps in regard to changing exposure magnitudes due to the interaction patterns of cell phones and base stations as well as misconceptions about regulation issues and scientific processes were found in both lay groups. In addition, lack of trust in responsible actors and disaffection with base station location processes were mentioned. The reported qualitative insights may be useful for the improvement of further risk communication tools.     

Public awareness and perception of environmental,health and safety risks to electricity generation: an explorative interview study in Switzerland

Well-informed public preferences are key to enabling successful and sustainable energy transitions worldwide. However, limited explorative evidence exists on what the public already knows and wants to know about the electricity generation technologies and their Environmental, Health, and Safety (EHS) risks. Understanding these issues is important for preparing informational materials and facilitating formation of informed preferences. We present results of an explorative interview study with 12 Swiss people. Despite the public debate on energy in Switzerland, we still identify significant awareness and knowledge gaps as well as misconceptions related to both technologies and their EHS risks. For accidental risks, the people tend to think beyond probabilities and consequences and consider further aspects, such as risk controllability and trust in experts and authorities. Most importantly, we find that people are able and tend to think of the electricity system as a whole portfolio: they actively realize the need to deploy multiple electricity technologies and accept some of the EHS risks. We conclude with concrete recommendations for preparing informational materials on electricity sector transitions in Switzerland and elsewhere. We also argue that future social research on energy should pay more attention to public perception of whole technology portfolios rather than single technologies.     

美国次贷危机对国内银行经营管理的启示

该文剖析了美国次贷危机的发生及其影响．并深入分析了美国次贷危机对国内银行经营管理的启示,认为国内的银行必须关注绩效激励的逆向选择、不要懈怠贷前尽职调查、不要过分依赖第二还款来源、营销手段应适度以及不应过渡迷信风险转移等。     

Market-specific and currency-specific risk during the global financial crisis: Evidence from the interbank markets in Tokyo and London

This paper investigates how international money markets reflected credit and liquidity risk during the global financial crisis. After matching the currency denomination, we examine how the Tokyo Interbank Offered Rate (TIBOR) was synchronized with the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR). We find remarkably asymmetric responses in market-specific and currency-specific risk during the crisis. The regression results suggest that market-specific credit risk increased the difference across markets, whereas liquidity risk caused the difference across currency denominations. They also support the view that liquidity shortage of the US dollar occurred in international money markets during the crisis. Coordinated central bank liquidity provisions were useful in reducing the liquidity shortage of the US dollar, but their effectiveness was asymmetric across markets.     

Convertibility risk: the precautionary demand for foreign currency in a crisis

This paper presents theoretical work linking money demand to the perceptions of households about the risk that domestic currency may become inconvertible or that it may be devalued. An empirical investigation of the size of this effect is carried out using monthly data for Korea to estimate an augmented demand-for-money equation. It is found that the fear of inconvertibility arising from the 1997 Korean currency crisis may have caused broad money demand to fall by 4–5% points,equivalent to the loss of reserves of $6–7.5 billion (or about 30% of reserves as measured at end-November 1997). This is a revised version of IMF Working paper WP/2001/210; it was written while Professor Black was Senior Policy Advisor at the IMF Institute and Christofides and Mourmouras were staff members in the IMF’s Policy Development and Review Department. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management. For useful comments and suggestions we thank an anonymous referee, Tim Lane, Ydahlia Metzgen, Roberto Perelli, Tony Richards, Christian Mulder, Steve Russell, as well as seminar participants at the IMF Institute, the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, Federal Reserve Board, and Bank of Indonesia. We would also like to note similar (unpublished) empirical results using our approach by Dr. Rino Effendi for Indonesia and Angana Banerji for Russia     

The real effects of financial constraints: Evidence from a financial crisis

We survey 1,050 Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) in the U.S., Europe, and Asia to directly assess whether their firms are credit constrained during the global financial crisis of 2008. We study whether corporate spending plans differ conditional on this survey-based measure of financial constraint. Our evidence indicates that constrained firms planned deeper cuts in tech spending, employment, and capital spending. Constrained firms also burned through more cash, drew more heavily on lines of credit for fear banks would restrict access in the future, and sold more assets to fund their operations. We also find that the inability to borrow externally caused many firms to bypass attractive investment opportunities, with 86% of constrained U.S. CFOs saying their investment in attractive projects was restricted during the credit crisis of 2008. More than half of the respondents said they canceled or postponed their planned investments. Our results also hold in Europe and Asia, and in many cases are stronger in those economies. Our analysis adds to the portfolio of approaches and knowledge about the impact of credit constraints on real firm behavior.     

Effective risk communication and CCS: the road to success in Europe

Over the past ten years or so, there have been multiple attempts to site and build carbon capture and storage (CCS) facilities in Europe, North America and elsewhere. To date, most of those attempts have not been successful. In Europe, for example, there are currently no commercial CCS facilities in operation. There are a number of reasons for this, ranging from lack of political will, the collapsing price of CO₂, lack of commercial drivers to capture and store CO₂, and public opposition to the proposed facilities. There have been several case studies examining the communication challenges associated with the siting of CCS facilities. Up till now, most of this research has been carried out by climate change or carbon policy experts as well as social researchers rather than scientists representing the wider risk communication community, aside from some notable exceptions. This study does the opposite by examining CCS from a broader risk communication perspective. It provides a brief overview of risk communication theory in order to situate some of the findings of the CCS communication research, and then, it makes some recommendations on how the siting of CCS facilities could be improved including the importance of trust, proactive communication and early stakeholder involvement. In conclusion, this study notes that if the science associated with the technology is communicated in the correct manner and if the key risk communication recommendations are adhered to, then the siting of future CCS facilities should be successful.     

Risk communication in dementia care: family perspectives

Family carers are often involved in decisions concerning the health and social care needs of people with dementia. These decisions frequently involve considering risks inherent in daily living situations and discussing these with care recipients and professionals. The purpose of this study is to understand the risks that present most concern to family carers; explore attitudes and approaches of this group towards risk; and examine how information about risks is shared between familial carers, care recipients and professionals working in dementia care. Five focus groups were held across Northern Ireland between April and July 2015 involving 22 carers. Risks of most concern were driving, falls, financial risks, getting lost and using electrical appliances. Concepts of ‘risk’ related to terms such as danger, harm and vulnerability with emphasis on consequences rather than likelihoods. The psychosocial benefits of taking risk were recognised by some participants. Discussion of risks with family members with dementia primarily involved bringing risk matters to the attention of the individual. Family carers talked with a wide range of professionals about risks. Divergences in perspectives were noted, particularly in relation to matters of health and safety. A model of risk communication is developed illustrating how this can play a key role in informed, shared decision-making where a family member has dementia, serving an important role in risk management processes in informal community dementia care.     

Public perceptions of the dioxin incident in Irish pork

In early December 2008, a global recall of Irish pork was initiated as a result of a subset of the national pork output being contaminated with dioxin. In this study, members of a panel from an Internet‐based longitudinal monitor of public opinion on food and health issues were used to assess public perceptions about the dioxin incident in late December. Although most respondents did not regard food as posing a risk to health, a larger proportion of respondents reported that that there was a ‘very high’ health risk from pork (8.6%) compared to any other food of animal origin. However, when asked to rank the risk posed to human health from a broad range of food and non‐food hazards, PCBs/dioxins were considered to pose less of a risk than high fat food, chemical pollution, or tanning. The majority of respondents (70.5%) considered that the authorities managed the incident in an ‘adequate’ or ‘very efficient’ manner. Respondents who considered that the authorities’ management of the incident was ‘incompetent’ rated the risk associated with eating Irish pork to be higher than those who considered that the authorities’ management was ‘very efficient’. Both the European Food Safety Authority and the Irish food safety authorities pronounced that there was no risk to human health from the level of dioxin in the pork. These communications, coupled with the rapid handling of the incident in an open and transparent way, reassured consumers and maintained their confidence in the food supply.     

The management of interest rate risk during the crisis: Evidence from Italian banks

We use a unique dataset to analyze how Italian banking groups managed their exposure to interest rate risk during the recent financial crisis. First of all, we document that on average the interest rate risk exposure – measured by duration gap approach – has been limited and well below the alert level enforced by regulators. Second, our econometric results indicate a relation of substitutability between banks’ on-balance-sheet interest rate risk and their use of interest rate derivatives suggesting that banks used these two instruments to curb their overall interest rate risk exposure in case of an increase in interest rates. Furthermore, we also find robust evidence of a negative correlation between banks’ interest rate risk and liquidity risk.     

Strategies to create risk awareness and legitimacy: the Swedish climate campaign

Social means of risk regulation often only arise in response to media attention and public opinion. In contrast, in the case of climate change, the Swedish government proactively launched a public information campaign to promote public awareness and knowledge of the risks associated with climate change, with the explicit objective of promoting acceptance of public means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This paper analyses the framing of climate change in the Swedish climate campaign and its communication strategy. What was the message of the campaign narrative? What did it imply concerning the causes, effects, and management of and responsibility for climate change? What means were used to communicate the risks of climate change? The paper analyses the campaign narrative, its references to various affective images of climate change, and the various storytelling techniques it used. It concludes that the Swedish climate campaign relied on a unidirectional view of risk communication and proffered a narrative containing inconsistencies and ambivalence. The analysis demonstrates that despite a thoroughly worked‐out strategy, a well‐defined message, and the intention to speak clearly, a complex problem such as climate change cannot easily be transformed into a single, coherent story.     

企业风险管理中的风险沟通机制研究

ERM是当今企业风险管理的核心标准,风险沟通是风险管理的重要方法,但企业风险沟通的研究尚不完备。本文将社会公共领域的风险沟通理论与COSO框架下的企业风险管理相结合,提出了一个风险沟通的理论假说,以全面风险感知、相互信任、伙伴关系和双向沟通模式作为该假说的四大支柱,以全面综合的方法,从企业内部(纵向)和企业外部(横向)两个维度构建了企业风险沟通体系,期望能够为企业层面的风险沟通发挥积极的作用。     

Implementing control mutuality using prediction markets: a new mechanism for risk communication

In this article prediction markets are presented as an innovative technology that can facilitate effective risk communication. The application of prediction markets in this context is an opportunity to reconcile the disparate approaches currently discussed in the risk communication literature. We demonstrate that control mutuality is uniquely achieved through the use of the prediction market mechanism and it is thus an innovative and in some cases optimal technology for use in risk communication in both public and private sector organisations.     

Reducing microbiological risk in the kitchen: piloting consensus conference methodology as a communication strategy

Foodborne diseases are a major public health problem. Improper storage and food preparation at home can favour microbial contamination of food. Consumers play a crucial role in controlling this risk. To reduce exposure to risk, it is essential to provide information and guidance on contamination management in the home. The aim of this study was to pilot a method of participatory communication addressed to young consumers and designed to reduce the microbiological risks associated with the consumption of meat products. The methodology was based on application of the ‘consensus conference’ model on food safety issues. The consensus conference served not only as a participatory strategy to share knowledge but also as a method for sharing in the development of risk communication content (guidelines) to be disseminated to the reference target. Young people’s perceptions, habits and behaviour in the kitchen were explored in the preparatory stage of the consensus conference by means of a survey and a focus group. Three consensus conferences were held in Italy attended by 60 university students (19 and 22 years old). Application of the consensus conference model as a communication process proved to be an effective opportunity to engage young consumers and experts on the topic of food safety. This discursive participation approach was broadly welcomed by the participants. Specifically, direct interaction with the experts was considered to be an important part of the communication process. The findings of the project were used to select concise communication content based on the perceptions, behaviours and fact-finding needs of the selected target. Publication of this content in the form of guidelines on microbiological risk management at home has enabled the results of the consensus conferences to be extended and the targeted communication material on risk reduction in daily food handling practices to be disseminated.     

Perception of technological risk: insights from research and lessons for risk communication and management

Technology has become a familiar companion in all areas of life. Production consumption, administration, education, communication, and leisure activities are all shaped by the use of technologies. However, people often associate with the term ‘technology’ attributes, such as catastrophic and potentially dangerous, and tend to take the benefits of technological products for granted. This asymmetry in risk–benefit perception is one of the main reasons why many consumers are concerned about ‘hidden’ risks of technologies and why they demand stringent regulatory actions when they feel unduly exposed to potential emissions or waste products associated with the lifecycle of technologies. This situation is often aggravated by social amplification processes, by which even small risks receive high media attention and are blown out of proportion in the public arena. At the same time, however, one needs to acknowledge that many technologies have the potential to harm the human health and the environment. The purpose of this article is to review our knowledge about risk perception with respect to technologies, in particular emerging technologies, and to suggest possible strategies to use this knowledge for improving our risk management practice. Technological risk perception is defined in this article as the processing of physical signals and/or information about a potentially harmful impact of using technology and the formation of a judgment about seriousness, likelihood, and acceptability of the respective technology. Based on the review of psychological, social, and cultural factors that shape individual and social risk perceptions, we have attempted to develop a structured framework that provides an integrative and systematic perspective on technological risk perception and that may assist risk management and regulation in taking perceptions into account.     

The role of on- and off-balance-sheet leverage of banks in the late 2000s crisis

Extensive regulatory changes and technological advances have transformed banking systems to a great extent. Banks have reacted to the challenges posed by the new operating environment by creating new products and expanding their activities to some uncharted business areas. In this paper, we study how modern banking which gave birth to the off-balance-sheet leverage activities affected the risk profile of U.S. banks as well as the level of systemic risk before and after the onset of the late 2000s financial crisis. Towards this, we separate on- from off-balance-sheet leverage and capture the latter with different, yet complementary, measures which do not exist in the current literature. Special attention is paid on the deleveraging process that occurred in the banking market after the crisis erupted, which is an additional innovative feature of this study. Our findings reveal that leverage, both explicit and hidden off-the-balance-sheet, increases the individual risk of banking firms making them vulnerable to financial shocks. Reverse leverage, on the other hand, is beneficial for individual banks’ health, but is found to be harmful for financial stability. We also demonstrate that the banks which concentrate on traditional lines of business typically carry less risk compared to those involved with modern financial instruments.     

Challenges and opportunities for pre-crisis emergency risk communication: lessons learned from the earthquake community

Abstract

Prior to the 2009?L’Aquila event, earthquake forecasting and early warning research focused specifically on earthquakes as the crisis events. Although this is still true, the manslaughter convictions of six earthquake scientists and one public official for failed risk communication in 2009 served as a catalyst for expanding these goals to also intentionally examine the challenges of communicating earthquake risk with non-scientific during the pre-crisis stage of the earthquake lifecycle. The Crisis Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) Model developed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) provides specific guidelines for doing so. Thus, based on a thematic analysis of interviews with 21 earthquake scientists, this study identifies what those responsible for communicating regularly about earthquake risk see as major communication challenges and the extent to which the CERC model recommendations are useful for addressing them. Results suggest that earthquake risk science communicators are most effective when they translate scientific and technical information simply, respond to competing messages, capitalize on relevant popular culture references, employ risk communication campaigns during ‘quiet periods’, and acknowledge uncertainty. These findings have implications not only for earthquake science risk communicators, but also for expanding the pre-crisis stage best practices proposed in the Crisis Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) model. Essentially, this study reveals that soliciting and responding to feedback in the pre-crisis stage could help spokespersons clarify or correct any messages that are perceived by audiences as unclear or are simply not accurate. Doing so may improve risk communication effectiveness not only during the pre-crisis stage but also throughout the earthquake crisis lifecycle.     

Corporate bond liquidity before and after the onset of the subprime crisis

We analyze liquidity components of corporate bond spreads during 2005-2009 using a new robust illiquidity measure. The spread contribution from illiquidity increases dramatically with the onset of the subprime crisis. The increase is slow and persistent for investment grade bonds while the effect is stronger but more short-lived for speculative grade bonds. Bonds become less liquid when financial distress hits a lead underwriter and the liquidity of bonds issued by financial firms dries up under crises. During the subprime crisis, flight-to-quality is confined to AAA-rated bonds.