钢材期货套期保值实证分析

期货价格与现货价格的走势具有趋同性与趋合性的特征,使期货套期保值交易能够对冲现货市场价格波动风险,钢材套期保值者可根据钢材价格的基差变化进行相应的买入或卖出交易,以锁定成本甚至获利.但在实际操作中,套期保值者还必须考虑运输、吊装等费用以及不同市场的价格贴水情况,确定一种合理基差.同时,本文认为决定套期保值效果的唯一因素是套期保值开始和套期保值结束时的基差变化,选择最理想的基差时机进行套期保值,能够实现预期的套期保值效果.     

大商所大豆期货基差影响因素分析

在有效率的期货市场,基差的波动小于现货价格及期货价格的波动,所以可以利用更小的基差风险取代价差风险。本文就以基差为研究对象对大商所大豆期货展开研究,分析基差变动的影响因素,以便使大豆期货市场的参与者更好地分析基差的变动,规避风险、保证收益。     

大豆期货基差研究——基于ARCH模型

本文采用2009年8月至2015年11月大豆现货价格和期货价格的数据,利用求得的基差,运用ARCH模型分析当期基差与前期基差的关系。结果发现当期基差与前一期基差之间的正相关关系显著,并且当期基差的波动幅度受到前一期基差波动性的影响。因此,套期保值者可以结合本文得出的结论,通过对前期基差大小和波动性进行分析,初步得出本期基差的数值或变化趋势,这样便可以有的放矢,使自己的收益尽可能最大化。     

期货市场基差与套期保值效果的实证研究

利用期货市场的套期保值功能减少企业的经营风险是中国发展期货市场的初衷,而套期保值效果的好坏很大程度上取决于基差的变化,基差是衡量现货价格和期货价格关系的重要指标。作者从基差理论着手,实证分析了中国期货市场多种合约的基差情况,结果表明中国期货市场各合约品种基差普遍较大,保值效果并不理想,指出可以利用基差交易增强保值效果。     

期货真实库存的研究

期货市场中对冲者会根据自身的库存水平制定交易策略,投机者会根据市场中的真实库存判断价格走势,所以库存是期货的收益的重要影响因素。但是一方面,社会的真实库存数据是无法统计的,除了交易所库存,还需要借助于期货价格,另一方面,交易所库存变化不连续,噪音多,不能及时反应市场中库存变化。本文就是基于期货价格来寻找有效的真实库存替代变量,得出基差可以作为库存的替代变量,现货价格和波动率不能体现真实库存水平。     

沪铜期货价格影响因素实证研究!!

沪铜期货价格受国际国内因素的影响日益显著,沪铜期货价格的影响因素有宏观经济因素、汇率因素、现货价格、相关市场、相关商品等。研究表明,沪铜期货价格受到3月LME铜期货价格、美元指数及沪铜现货价格影响显著。     

期货价格是完善的市场定价机制

商品期货价格是指在期货市场通过公开竞价方式成交的期货合同商品的价格,现货价格是指买卖实际货物的交易双方按公平的原则所达成的商品成交价格。在商品现货市场与期货市场共生并存的完整市场体系中,现货价格与期货价格存在着相互联系、相互补充、不可互相取代的关系。在市场经济模式中,市场机制调节整个经济运作。市场机制一般由三部分组成,即价值形成机制、价格机制、竞争机制,其中价格机制是市场机制的核心。因此,选择哪种价格为定价机制才更合乎市场机制的运行要求呢?我们认为,期货价格是比较理想的市场定价机制。     

国际市场初级产品价格比较——2013年12月中价国际A、B指数变动分析

受原油等商品价格上涨影响,2013年12月份国际市场大宗商品价格水平上升。与11月相比中价国际现货、期货价格指数分别上升1.08%、1.76%;与上年同期相比现货、期货价格指数分别下降1.77%、6.47%。2013年中价国际现货、期货价格指数分别比2012年下降3.58%、4%。(一)国际市场农产品现货与期货价格变化情况分析12月份国际市场农产品现货、期货价格分别比11月下降0.45%、0.37%,其中小麦、食糖、豆油价格及大豆现货     

国际碳排放权交易价格关系实证研究

本文分别分析了国际碳排放权交易市场主要两种商品EUA、CER各自期货价格与现货价格关系,以及两种商品之闯的期货价格关系。通过建立VAR模型,利用协整检验,Granger因果检验以及脉冲响应函数法,实证分析了国际碳排放权交易市场价格。研究显示,碳排放权交易的两种商品期货价格和现货价格之间各自存在协整关系．EUA期货价格的发现功能已经初步体现,且EUA价格引导CER价格变化,二者长期具有趋同趋势。     

以铜为例的期货价格与现货价格相关性研究

我国经济发展水平不断得到提高,金融市场得到长足的发展,期货交易越来越普遍.本文重点探讨了现货价格与期货价格的定价原理,进而从价格相关性、收益率相关性以及基差等方面探讨了期货与现货价格相关性研究的具体内容,最后通过对铜期货和现货的价格相关性研究进行实证分析,并得出相关结论.     

Foreign Direct Investment,Domestic Investment and Economic Growth in China: A Time Series Analysis

This paper investigates the causal link between foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic investment and economic growth in China for the period 1988–2003 using a multivariate VAR system with error correction model (ECM) and the innovation accounting (variance decomposition and impulse response function analysis) techniques. The results show that while there is a bi‐directional causality between domestic investment and economic growth, there is only a single‐directional causality from FDI to domestic investment and to economic growth. Rather than crowding out domestic investment, FDI is found to be complementary with domestic investment. Thus, FDI has not only assisted in overcoming shortage of capital, it has also stimulated economic growth through complementing domestic investment in China.     

A structural equation model of impulse buying behaviour in grocery retailing

PurposeEnvironmental changes, specifically the economic crisis and the growing penetration of digital technologies, have produced significant changes in shopping habits designed to create new paradigms for impulse buying behaviour. A new scenario seems to be opening up where customers enter the store much more prepared than in the past searching for products they had planned to buy. The purpose of this paper is to explore the determinants of impulse buying in a context of more planning and preparation for shopping.Design /methodology/approachThe data were obtained using a structured questionnaire from 316 respondents interviewed instore thanks to the cooperation of a leading Italian retail chain. We conducted a two-stage approach mall-intercept survey method to collect data. Firstly, we interviewed customers before entering the store, enquiring them about the pre-shopping preparation and shopping enjoyment tendency. Secondly, we interviewed the same customers at the end of their shopping trips, asking them to indicate which purchases were unplanned. Then, shoppers answered to questions regarding their general tendency to engage in impulse buying, the urges experienced to make impulse purchases, the level of positive and negative affect experienced during the shopping trip.FindingsIn the structural model tested with LISREL 8, we found that pre-shopping tendency influences directly impulse buying: confirming our hypotheses, a higher pre-shopping preparation lead to lower levels of impulse buying. Results also showed that the personality variables (shopping enjoyment tendency and impulse buying tendency) influenced impulse buying through positive affect and urge to purchase. Our research did not find support for the relationship between negative affect and urge. Finally, higher levels of urge to buy impulsively lead to higher levels of impulse buyingOriginality/valueFrom the review of past and recent literature, we have not found a model that considers the influence of pre-shopping tendency on impulse buying behaviour. This paper addresses this major gap in extant literature by including pre-shopping tendency among the individual characteristics (impulse buying tendency and shopping enjoyment tendency) taken into consideration by past contributions.     

财政集中支付模式下政府采购资金运行方式的探讨

本文在剖析现行政府采购在财政集中支付模式存在问题的基础上,提出了应从修改采购资金支付流程、科学预算编制、强化预算约束等方面来进一步完善现行的操作模式。     

一种适用于强脉冲噪声下的对数型恒模盲均衡算法

针对脉冲噪声下恒模算法(Constant Modulus Algorithm,CMA)失败的问题,通过分析脉冲噪声的影响,提出了一种基于最小均方（Least Mean Square,LMS）准则的对数型恒模算法（Logarithmic-type CMA,LT-CMA）。LT-CMA利用对数函数的非线性变换特性自适应地抑制强脉冲噪声对误差函数的影响,并且利用l2-范数进行信号归一化处理以增强算法的稳健性。仿真结果表明,所提出的LT-CMA可以适应于高斯噪声环境和脉冲噪声环境;与经典自适应均衡算法相比,在收敛速度和稳健性两方面上,所提出的LT-CMA都有显著的提升。     

‘Instagram made Me buy it’: Generation Z impulse purchases in fashion industry

This paper investigates what types of Instagram marketing tools are the most effective in relation to Generation Z's impulse purchasing behaviour within fashion industry in the context of the United Kingdom. The research applies Stimulus-Organism-Response model to the context of Instagram. The findings of this qualitative study based on eight extensive focus groups conclude that there are significant gender differences in relation to impulse purchasing behaviour on Instagram. Instagram is vastly influential in encouraging impulse purchases amongst females, however, this was not the case for male participants. A revised Stimulus-Organism-Response model is proposed to Instagram, concluding that advertisements, opinion leaders and user-generated content act as stimuli (S) in evoking positive emotions (O), which subsequently trigger impulse purchases (R) in Generation Z females.     

Customers focus and impulse buying at night markets

This study conducted a survey on impulse buying at several international night markets in Taiwan and obtained 1053 responses. The data were analysed by partial least squares structural equation modelling. The model was composed of several constructs: attitude towards impulse buying, impulse buying tendency, and variables of customer focus, including insight ability (vendors’ insight into customer needs), customer information, response and feedback, and vendor enthusiasm. The analytical results revealed that insight ability, customer information, response and feedback, and enthusiasm have direct and significant positive effects on attitude towards impulse buying. Additionally, multi-group comparisons in partial least squares analysis revealed partial but statistically significant differences in the path relationships between male customers (568) and female customers; (485); foreign (465) and domestic (588) customers, among night market visitors. This study contributes to the literature by providing a more precise overview of the influence of customer focus on impulse buying tendency within a limited time frame and a crowded space.     

Fashion retailing and the bottom line: The effects of generational cohorts,gender, fashion fanship,attitudes and impulse buying on fashion expenditure

This study examines the influence of demographic (e.g. gender and generational cohort) and psychographic (e.g. fashion fanship, attitudes and impulse buying) drivers on frequency and levels of expenditure on fashion purchases. Using regression analysis, the results suggest that for weekly and monthly expenditure, gender and fashion fanship were significant influences, while for yearly expenditure, gender and impulse buying were significant. Attitudes towards fashion had no significant influence on expenditure. Females purchase more often and were significantly different from males on yearly expenditure, fashion fanship, attitudes and impulse buying. Generation Y is higher on purchase frequency, fashion fanship, attitudes and impulse buying compared with other cohorts under investigation.     

美国货币政策对中国经济动态冲击的实证研究

本文对美国货币政策对我国实体经济的冲击效应进行了实证检验,结构化动态冲击分析表明,美国货币政策正向冲击(1)短期内会引起中国总产出、出口总额的增加,长期中则会导致中国总产出、出口总额的下降;(2)短期内会造成中国进口总额的上升,长期中最终会对中国进口总额产生负向冲击;(3)方差分解结果显示,美国货币政策的正向冲击对中国出口总额的影响最大。(4)美国货币政策对中国实体经济影响程度相对于国内部分学者的结论较小。     

利率市场化的潜在风险与策略选择

利率市场化并非全部自由化 ,我国利率市场化面临较大的潜在风险 ,应选择渐进式的改革模式 ,在步骤上应重点突破 ,循序渐进。     

Temptation and resistance: An integrated model of consumption impulse formation and enactment

Research pertaining to the consumption impulse is sparse in the literature. To address this lacuna, the author presents and validates a detailed theoretical framework explicating the consumption impulse formation process, and examining the role played by cognitive and volitional processes in its resistance or enactment. The model makes the distinction between consonant (harmonious) impulses and dissonant (conflicting) impulses and elaborates on the role of the impulsivity trait, situational variables, and constraining factors in enactment or resistance of the consumption impulse. The results of two studies provide support to the general working of this theoretical framework. This research has the potential to inform many critical issues surrounding consumer behavior, such as regulating consumption impulses in retail and on‐line shopping environments, and developing interventions for prevention of harmful consumer behaviors such as addictions. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.